DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

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Old 11-02-2013, 11:01 AM   #1
JustTinking
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Resale market cooling down?

I've noticed on the broker sites, that properties that were flying off the shelves 3 months ago are now starting to sit for a while. Stripped contracts in particular are not moving quickly at all, some have been out there for 60 days or longer. Saw a couple were pulled. Inventory seems to be building and prices are starting, just starting, to inch downwards. I even see some small contracts, 50 pointers, not selling.

Dare I say it?? Are we moving towards a market more friendly to buyers?
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Old 11-02-2013, 11:53 AM   #2
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I think so. I watch the BWV listings daily and there is a surplus. On the other hand I've made four offers in the 70's and only one has been accepted. So the sellers are not showing me any desperation.
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Old 11-02-2013, 12:41 PM   #3
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The resale market is definitely cooling down. Available inventories are way up compared to the summer and many brokers are starting to slowly lower asking prices.

It's not unusual; we are getting into the slow season. Still, this spring and summer saw some crazy activity.

Any real estate tends to be highly speculative. DVC is no different.

It will be interesting to watch trends to see if we are in the new norm or if the market will swing down further. Was this year's run-up a return to normalcy or just a bubble?
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Old 11-02-2013, 01:03 PM   #4
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The PP's comments make me wonder if this is an actual long-term trend or just reflective of a regular seasonal change.
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Old 11-02-2013, 05:17 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OKW Lover View Post
The PP's comments make me wonder if this is an actual long-term trend or just reflective of a regular seasonal change.
That's a great question. I haven't been watching it long enough to know...anyone else with more experience care to weigh in?
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Old 11-02-2013, 09:59 PM   #6
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It's definitely cooled off.
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Old 11-03-2013, 01:26 AM   #7
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I'm not sure comparing to the summer is a valid comparison. I think people's minds are on other things at this time of year. A better evaluation would be to compare with this time last year. I was looking for VCG this time last year and I had a quick look and seems to be inventory is still lower, prices may well be heading down but possibly not back to where they were a year ago.
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Old 11-03-2013, 06:19 AM   #8
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cooling off compared to 3 months ago yes

compared to a year ago no it is much higher
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Old 11-03-2013, 07:00 AM   #9
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cooling off compared to 3 months ago yes

compared to a year ago no if is much higher
My opinion is that the GF buzz was largely responsible for the increased activity and prices. I expect them to cool off a little then go back up with the Poly. After that they should cool off again back to where one would have expected them to be with the passage of time and before the increases in the last year or so. Of course other changes could affect this as well such as any additional restrictions on resale points or other programs such as possible extension offers.
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Old 11-03-2013, 10:04 AM   #10
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During the 2010 - 2012 period, DVC prices were down significantly.

No doubt, the economy played a factor but it also could have been because Disney flooded the market with direct-sale DVCs. BLT, SSR, and AKV more than doubled the number of DVC rooms at WDW in just a few years.

In any industry, a large increase in new inventory affects secondary markets. By 2011, many of the impulse buyers at the new resorts (timeshares tend to be impulse purchases) likely were selling, increasing available resale inventory and bringing resale prices down.

With AKV expected to sell out early in 2014, both VGF and the Poly being relatively small DVCs, and a large percentage of impulse buyers having already sold their DVC interests, there should be no great influx of properties on the resale market going forward.

Inventories at the classic DVC resorts are climbing but this might be the usual seasonal influx caused by a desire by owners to avoid paying next year's maintenance fees along with less interest among buyers due to the end of the traditional vacation season. (Right now, many potential buyers don't have vacations on their minds.)

It will be interesting if the DVC resale market retains its gains from earlier this year or declines further. Still, I don't think we'll see a return to 2011-2012 prices unless something drastic happens.
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Old 11-03-2013, 10:06 AM   #11
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It will be interesting if the DVC resale market retains its gains from earlier this year or declines further. Still, I don't think we'll see a return to 2011-2012 prices unless something drastic happens.
I predict $40 SSR contracts passing ROFR by Jan, 2017.
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Old 11-07-2013, 07:16 PM   #12
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My opinion is that the GF buzz was largely responsible for the increased activity and prices. I expect them to cool off a little then go back up with the Poly. After that they should cool off again back to where one would have expected them to be with the passage of time and before the increases in the last year or so. Of course other changes could affect this as well such as any additional restrictions on resale points or other programs such as possible extension offers.
Dean, I haven't posted here in a while, but I don't need to. You always say exactly what I think!
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Old 11-03-2013, 02:25 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by JustTinking View Post
I've noticed on the broker sites, that properties that were flying off the shelves 3 months ago are now starting to sit for a while. Stripped contracts in particular are not moving quickly at all, some have been out there for 60 days or longer. Saw a couple were pulled. Inventory seems to be building and prices are starting, just starting, to inch downwards. I even see some small contracts, 50 pointers, not selling. Dare I say it?? Are we moving towards a market more friendly to buyers?
i was just looking yesterday and my question is why have the prices went so high? I wouldn't pay that much for resale. Love dvc but the resale prices are to high I will wait it out.
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