DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

Go Back   The DIS Discussion Forums - DISboards.com > Disney Vacation Club > DVC-Mousecellaneous
facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS Updates
Register Chat FAQ Tickers Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 10-24-2013, 08:14 AM   #1
SFlaDisneyfans
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 156

Reaching a price equilibrium?

We are looking to add on a contract to our current one and have been watching the resale price inflation. I happened by TSS this morning and took a count of what is for sale (not pending). Excluding locations we are not interested in purchasing, here is what I found (10/24/13).

AKV - 30
BLT - 23
BCV - 15
BWV - 15
OKW - 12
SSR - 42
VWL - 10

total - 147

If the resale inventory fails to clear the market or even increases, I am wondering if we found/surpassed the equilibrium price for resales and may start seeing a float downward a bit in the future until inventory levels start to fall. It could be getting near the end of the year and some owners are looking to move inventory before January dues and/or marginal sellers looking to lock in a profit at current market prices. Or none of the above. This is the largest inventory I have seen in a while and wonder if we have found a ceiling.

Updating with new data (11/1/13):

AKV - 31 (+1)
BLT - 20 (-3)
BCV - 16 (+1)
BWV - 23 (+8)
OKW - 11 (-1)
SSR - 43 (+1)
VWL - 08 (-2)

total - 152

As of 11/4

AKV - 32 (+1)
BLT - 20 (+0)
BCV - 19 (+3)
BWV - 21 (-2)
OKW - 8 (-3)
SSR - 49 (+6)
VWL - 09 (+1)

total - 158

As of 11/9

AKV - 35 (+3)
BLT - 18 (-2)
BCV - 21 (+2)
BWV - 17 (-4)
OKW - 06 (-2)
SSR - 49 (+0)
VWL - 11 (+2)

Total 157

As of 11/15

AKV - 30 (-5)
BLT - 19 (+1)
BCV - 18 (-3)
BWV - 17 (+0)
OKW - 13 (+7)
SSR - 54 (+5)
VWL - 10 (-1)

Total 161

As of 12/04

AKV - 29 (-1)
BLT - 27 (+8)
BCV - 12 (-6)
BWV - 15 (-2)
OKW - 10 (-3)
SSR - 54 (+0)
VWL - 11 (+1)

Total 158

As of 12/12

AKV - 33 (+4)
BLT - 25 (-2)
BCV - 11 (-1)
BWV - 19 (+4)
OKW - 13 (+3)
SSR - 62 (+8)
VWL - 15 (+4)

Total 178

As of 12/30

AKV - 35 (+2)
BLT - 28 (+3)
BCV - 14 (+3)
BWV - 17 (-2)
OKW - 14 (+1)
SSR - 63 (+1)
VWL - 18 (+3)

Total 189

Last edited by SFlaDisneyfans; 12-30-2013 at 03:52 PM. Reason: Update
SFlaDisneyfans is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2013, 08:39 AM   #2
glamdring269
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Nashville
Posts: 350

I think you may be right. I've been keeping my eye on four specific contracts at three different locations that have been sitting there much longer than I expected. Based on this I'm inclined to wait for prices to start falling. I'm not planning to return to the Dis until 2015 so no huge rush at this point!
glamdring269 is offline   Reply With Quote
|
The DIS
Register to remove

Join Date: 1997
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 1,000,000
Old 10-24-2013, 09:51 AM   #3
Commish
Earning My Ears
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 4

I do not think that is a large inventory of contracts given the size of DVC,
The primary driver IMO is the March DVC price increase and Disney's ROFR Activity, that has pushed up the prices as sellers react and are in a better position to start at a much higher ask.

OKW prices have jumped almost 40% since last year ($50 to $70) seeing a disconnect in the market I jumped on Vero @ $39 a few weeks ago, current VB asking prices are now ~$50 (non-stripped)
Commish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2013, 06:42 PM   #4
NoleFan
DIS Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 721

I also noticed that the small contracts (stripped or not) are not always selling so fast. A few months back, they appeared to sell within minutes of the listing going live.
__________________
DVC Member 2013
Boardwalk Villas
Beach Club Villas
NoleFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2013, 09:08 PM   #5
Silver19
Avocado Margarita
 
Silver19's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Posts: 178

Quote:
Originally Posted by SFlaDisneyfans View Post
We are looking to add on a contract to our current one and have been watching the resale price inflation. I happened by TSS this morning and took a count of what is for sale (not pending). Excluding locations we are not interested in purchasing, here is what I found. AKV - 30 BLT - 23 BCV - 15 BWV - 15 OKW - 12 SSR - 42 VWL - 10 total - 147 If the resale inventory fails to clear the market or even increases, I am wondering if we found/surpassed the equilibrium price for resales and may start seeing a float downward a bit in the future until inventory levels start to fall. It could be getting near the end of the year and some owners are looking to move inventory before January dues and/or marginal sellers looking to lock in a profit at current market prices. Or none of the above. This is the largest inventory I have seen in a while and wonder if we have found a ceiling.
I think you're right. And based on the offers we've made on BWV contracts this week, I believe prices are falling. All three contracts we wanted ended up selling in the 70's, despite higher list prices. We reached agreement at $70. There's a lot of inventory compared to what I've seen over the last three years and I check daily. Sometimes hourly.
__________________
~Silver19

Wilderness Lodge (1/2008)
Wilderness Lodge (12/2008)
Boardwalk Villas (1/2010)
Boardwalk Villas (5/2011)
Boardwalk Villas (2/2012)
Boardwalk Villas (1/2013)
Boardwalk Villas (10/2013)
Boardwalk Villas (1/2014)

Next up..

Boardwalk Villas (11/2014)
Silver19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2013, 10:04 PM   #6
sndral
DIS Veteran
 
sndral's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,681

I've noticed on a site that aggregates listings from 4 brokerages that the AKV listings have climbed from 2 pages to 5 pages in the last month or two. More supply typically suggests downward pressure on price in most markets, it'll be interesting to see if that's the case going forward.
__________________
sndral is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-24-2013, 10:35 PM   #7
Nabas
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 307

Quote:
Originally Posted by Silver19 View Post
I think you're right. And based on the offers we've made on BWV contracts this week, I believe prices are falling. All three contracts we wanted ended up selling in the 70's, despite higher list prices. We reached agreement at $70. There's a lot of inventory compared to what I've seen over the last three years and I check daily. Sometimes hourly.
Resale inventory is way up. In the last 2 months, listed inventory on 6 DVC resale websites has doubled. Lots of inventory is starting to sit. Several are asking stupid prices for stripped contracts.

At it's low, BCV had only 4 listings available. Now that's expanded to 29 listings. Despite the much higher inventory, BCV asking prices have climbed to over $100/point, whereas asking prices have been flat at the other resorts for a few months.

It seems to me the market has peaked for 2013. Let's see if prices decline.
Nabas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2013, 12:18 AM   #8
DVC Dude
Disney World Rocks!
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Florida
Posts: 763

well, it may be that we are approaching the end of the year and the bad old annual dues is coming up and the holiday shopping season is about to begin

this is a normal cycle for timeshares
DVC Dude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 03:52 PM   #9
MiramarQE
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 268

Quote:
Originally Posted by DVC Dude View Post
well, it may be that we are approaching the end of the year and the bad old annual dues is coming up and the holiday shopping season is about to begin

this is a normal cycle for timeshares
This is what we're waiting for - people that are looking to sell to cover their Christmas gift bills.

With VGF hype dying, Poly announcement 18 months away and Christmas gift bills coming due, we're betting we'll see a Jan 2014 "correction" in resale selling prices.
MiramarQE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 04:37 PM   #10
DVC Dude
Disney World Rocks!
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Florida
Posts: 763

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nabas View Post
According to dvcnews.com, VGF sales are lagging:

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pro...loridian-sales

Does today's article indicate that direct DVC prices have finally reached their limit?

What impact will that have on the resale market?
I think this is a short blip as there was HUGE demand initially and then now a slowdown. If Disney really wants to move points, then they should offer a Black Friday special like they did in 2010 when that was the LAST time I bought direct from Disney for BLT.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MiramarQE View Post
This is what we're waiting for - people that are looking to sell to cover their Christmas gift bills.

With VGF hype dying, Poly announcement 18 months away and Christmas gift bills coming due, we're betting we'll see a Jan 2014 "correction" in resale selling prices.
It depends on the resort your want, but yes, that is a perfect time to be shopping for good deals.
DVC Dude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2013, 08:25 AM   #11
Dean
DIS Veteran
 
Dean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 31,934

Quote:
Originally Posted by SFlaDisneyfans View Post
We are looking to add on a contract to our current one and have been watching the resale price inflation. I happened by TSS this morning and took a count of what is for sale (not pending). Excluding locations we are not interested in purchasing, here is what I found.

AKV - 30
BLT - 23
BCV - 15
BWV - 15
OKW - 12
SSR - 42
VWL - 10

total - 147

If the resale inventory fails to clear the market or even increases, I am wondering if we found/surpassed the equilibrium price for resales and may start seeing a float downward a bit in the future until inventory levels start to fall. It could be getting near the end of the year and some owners are looking to move inventory before January dues and/or marginal sellers looking to lock in a profit at current market prices. Or none of the above. This is the largest inventory I have seen in a while and wonder if we have found a ceiling.
I don't follow volume and prices day to day but IF this is the case you should start to see prices fall. First you'll likely see lower asking accepted then listing prices fall IF this trend continues.
__________________
Dean
Dean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2013, 09:52 AM   #12
Anthony1971
DIS Veteran
 
Anthony1971's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: 1092.49 miles from home
Posts: 1,784

Your theory could be correct.
However the economy is improving as well as house prices going up and this drives the price of timeshares as well.
The flip side of the inventory is simply prices are high so let me list mine for a lot more than I paid and see if it sells if not I will keep it...
There are also a lot of people who purchased multiple contracts so they could have a two bedroom every year or..... and things change...
I talked about selling my small contract as we really do not need it much -- last trip 4 adults and 1 child in a two bedroom could have done it with two studios or not gifted the others a room....
If I listed my contrcat I would not accept a low offer as I have no need to sell it...
You need to prove need for your Theory and I just do not see it right now... But it is possible that some that need to sell will accept a lower price..
Anthony1971 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-25-2013, 10:35 AM   #13
Dean
DIS Veteran
 
Dean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 31,934

Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthony1971 View Post
Your theory could be correct.
However the economy is improving as well as house prices going up and this drives the price of timeshares as well.
The flip side of the inventory is simply prices are high so let me list mine for a lot more than I paid and see if it sells if not I will keep it...
There are also a lot of people who purchased multiple contracts so they could have a two bedroom every year or..... and things change...
I talked about selling my small contract as we really do not need it much -- last trip 4 adults and 1 child in a two bedroom could have done it with two studios or not gifted the others a room....
If I listed my contrcat I would not accept a low offer as I have no need to sell it...
You need to prove need for your Theory and I just do not see it right now... But it is possible that some that need to sell will accept a lower price..
Maybe but I don't see as much impact from the economy in this situation as for other more standard parts of the economy. IMO the main reason for the increase was related to VGF hype. Now whether the Poly announcement is enough to keep it going for a while, we'll see. IMO we've been at an artificial high in price and low in availability.
__________________
Dean
Dean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-10-2013, 11:54 PM   #14
dundey
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 80

We are also looking to add some points and I agree. A contract I placed a bid and made a fair offer for, is still sitting at a high price. Others I've been watching are still there as well.

In looking at the total from the 4 brokers website I think inventory is surely increasing, although I have not been tracking the total number.

We will be patient!
dundey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2013, 11:10 AM   #15
Annielkd22222
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 270

I don't think the prices will change much unless there are motivated sellers. I think people have a bottom line price they will sell at, and they can wait patiently as well.
Annielkd22222 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

DVC-Resales.com | 1-800-550-6493 (Contact The Timeshare Store) | DVC Resale Listings

facebooktwittergoogle plus youtube itunesDIS Updates
GET OUR DIS UPDATES DELIVERED BY EMAIL



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:34 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Copyright © 1997-2014, Werner Technologies, LLC. All Rights Reserved.