DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

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Old 05-02-2013, 05:30 PM   #1
alirwalsh4
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I don't get it! Where are all the resales GONE??

Can someone explain to me what happened to all the resales? I haven't looked since maybe September/October, but there was plenty and now there are so few and the prices seem to have gone up? Would love to buy "just one more" but now just doesn't seem to be the time??
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Old 05-02-2013, 06:12 PM   #2
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supply dried up a little and demand went crazy. (yay for the economy...i guess... )

i'd wait and try again later. (or expect to pay a bit more if you buy now.)
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Old 05-02-2013, 06:17 PM   #3
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Also, with all the ROFR activity, buyers who would normally buy one contract and then go away were having to buy two or three (or in my case five) before actually getting to keep one. The high levels of ROFR activity ate up a lot of the available contracts.
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Old 05-02-2013, 07:51 PM   #4
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Makes me glad I bought 18 months ago
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Old 05-03-2013, 07:51 AM   #5
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When prices are heading south, everyone wants to sell to get the highest price possible and when prices are heading north, everyone holds off selling to see where the high point is to get the highest price.

IMHO sellers today are holding off to see where the prices are heading so they can maximize their proceeds on the sale. Once DVD stops these crazy price increases and resale sales level off, then I think you will see more sellers jumping into the market.
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Old 05-03-2013, 10:21 AM   #6
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I do think some sellers have gotten a bit over optimistic though and it is probably due for a correction.
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Old 05-03-2013, 02:35 PM   #7
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To give you an example of the change in prices in the last year.

In March of 2012 I had an offer accepted for

OKW 400 points at $39 with 183 for 2011 + 800 for 2012 + 400 for 2013 with buyer paying closing and MF.

Today I just saw an OKW 190 contract listed at $65 with 1 for 2013 + 190 for 2014 + 190 for 2015.

So that contract from last year was $26/point cheaper and had 2.5 years of points with it.

Now I did lose my contract to ROFR , but I'm pretty sure ROFR alone did not cause such a big change in prices.

Smart sellers are seeing that there is an increased demand for DVC contracts and then are naturally going to start raising the prices they are asking.
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Old 05-03-2013, 02:43 PM   #8
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Increase in ROFR, reduces the supply of resale contracts & drives up the cost of resale contracts. ROFR is not the only factor in driving up prices. If the economy is doing better, more people have $$$ to spend.
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Old 05-03-2013, 02:55 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoleFan View Post
Increase in ROFR, reduces the supply of resale contracts & drives up the cost of resale contracts. ROFR is not the only factor in driving up prices. If the economy is doing better, more people have $$$ to spend.

Increased demand increases the demand for both direct and resale contract.

Increased demand for resale reduced the supply of resale contracts.

Increase demand for direct contracts increases the level of ROFR which reduces the supply of resale contracts while still keeping the demand for resale contracts unchanged.

So we agree, the increase in demand is the driving force
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Old 05-03-2013, 03:03 PM   #10
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Demand or no demand I still think there are a good few sellers who have over-cooked the asking prices. There are several BLT contracts available where the price is so high it offers tiny or no savings over direct. That is surely going to put most buyers off for now and impact demand
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Old 05-03-2013, 03:17 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minniesgal View Post
Demand or no demand I still think there are a good few sellers who have over-cooked the asking prices. There are several BLT contracts available where the price is so high it offers tiny or no savings over direct. That is surely going to put most buyers off for now and impact demand
Agreed. With the resale restrictions and the amount of time and effort required to go the resale route, resale buyers are expecting a discount to direct pricing. With only a tiny savings over direct it would not make sense to go resale. So how much demand though is there at say a 20% discount, a 30% discount, etc. For myself I never looked at it by how much the discount was, but rather what the total cost I could afford was, so there was a ceiling on how much I could afford to pay; hence why I never bought direct when I first learned about DVC and only bought resale years later after finding out about the resale market.
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Old 05-03-2013, 03:19 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minniesgal View Post
Demand or no demand I still think there are a good few sellers who have over-cooked the asking prices. There are several BLT contracts available where the price is so high it offers tiny or no savings over direct. That is surely going to put most buyers off for now and impact demand
Oh, I think it's quite possible they are just trying to get the money they paid for their BLT contracts back. Not everyone paid under $100 per point for BLT.
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Old 05-03-2013, 07:18 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
Increased demand increases the demand for both direct and resale contract.

Increased demand for resale reduced the supply of resale contracts.

Increase demand for direct contracts increases the level of ROFR which reduces the supply of resale contracts while still keeping the demand for resale contracts unchanged.

So we agree, the increase in demand is the driving force
I agree with this BUT - there were at least (that we know of) about 25 contracts for BWV alone taken (in a 2 week time frame) that is 25 buyers now buying the next contracts to be listed - thus decreasing supply. If those 25+ contracts were not taken there would be 25+ more BWV contracts on the resale market today - competetion. Yes it is supply and demand I am confident that once Disney stops ROFR supply will increase and demand will go down.
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Old 05-03-2013, 09:51 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbs1228 View Post
I agree with this BUT - there were at least (that we know of) about 25 contracts for BWV alone taken (in a 2 week time frame) that is 25 buyers now buying the next contracts to be listed - thus decreasing supply. If those 25+ contracts were not taken there would be 25+ more BWV contracts on the resale market today - competetion. Yes it is supply and demand I am confident that once Disney stops ROFR supply will increase and demand will go down.
I'll agree with your BUT. It is reasonable to assume that when Disney announced the increase in prices that they created a bump in demand (probably just bring future demand forward) which in turn sucked up the supply of BWV faster than normal.
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Old 05-03-2013, 05:59 PM   #15
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I just bought BLT at $89. If it was near $100 I would have just gone direct. My first contract was rofr'd but I hung in there to try again. Resale works only if savings are there
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