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 11-26-2012, 02:17 PM #1 Maverick Mouseketeer     Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Ohio Posts: 279 Cost of Owning DVC through 2042 - Interesting Calculations First... Let me start by saying I'm not a DVC owner, but we are looking! I’ve been to WDW quite often (and plan to continue) so it should definitely be something for us to look at very closely. Second... There are quite a few assumptions in the information below. Lots of variables that can be played with, but I tried to get as close to an 'apples to apples' comparison as possible. Third... I'm just sharing my calculations, so please don't flame me if you disagree! (Correction feedback would be welcome!) I'm hoping that some people out there might benefit from the info. Assumption #1: Purchase of 160 DVC points at the WDW DVC Resorts via resale. Full purchase price paid in cash (I.E. – No financing). Assumption #2: Current resale price average by resort. (This is certainly open to interpretation – Even if these averages are off by \$5 per point, that would be a total difference of only \$800 total) AKV - \$65 BLT - \$85 BCV - \$70 BWV - \$62 OKW (2042) - \$57 SSR - \$55 VWL - \$60 Assumption #3: An end date of 2042 is used for all resorts regardless of when the actual end date is. (30 years total cost) Assumption #4: 2013 MF's (posted today) and a 3.6% annual increase is used for future years. The annual MF increases are definitely the wild card we cannot predict. An annual 3.6% may not be a good number, but it is what i used. Assumption #5: Closing costs are not included. 2012 MF's are not included. (These would be a tiny fraction of the overall cost anyway...) Assumption #6: Eight nights average stay per year. This would change significantly based on room type / view / season chosen, but eight is a good number to use for simple averages across all the resorts. The TOTAL cost should be somewhat close to actual, but the cost per night will vary widely if you average more than 20 points per night. Assumption #7: I am not offsetting any of the purchase costs by a resale at the end of 30 years for AKV, BLT and SSR. For calculation purposes, I am assuming all value is 'used' at the end of 30 years. People will be able to sell these 30 years from now, but I chose to not include this in my particular 'apples to apples' comparison. Your 'apples to apples' might be different. Here's what I came up with: AKV current average resale: \$65/point AKV 2013 MF: \$5.6749/point AKV total cost for 30 years: \$58052 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$241.88 BLT current average resale: \$85/point BLT 2013 MF: \$4.4972/point BLT total cost for 30 years: \$51362 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$214.01 BCV current average resale: \$70/point BCV 2013 MF: \$5.6458/point BCV total cost for 30 years: \$58607 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$244.20 BWV current average resale: \$62/point BWV 2013 MF: \$5.8409/point BWV total cost for 30 years: \$58965 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$245.69 OKW (2042) current average resale: \$57/point OKW 2013 MF: \$5.3447/point OKW total cost for 30 years: \$53999 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$225.00 SSR current average resale: \$55/point SSR 2013 MF: \$4.8129/point SSR total cost for 30 years: \$49213 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$205.06 VWL current average resale: \$60/point VWL 2013 MF: \$5.7931/point VWL total cost for 30 years: \$58224 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$242.68 I found it quite interesting that AKV, BC, BWV and VWL were SO CLOSE in total anticipated cost per night over the 30 years. Of those, however… AKV will be the only one with years remaining (after 2042) where some initial purchase price might be recoverable, although that is also debatable since MF’s will be pretty high at that point. LOL I ran the same simulations for 20 years and the numbers are still very close on a ‘cost per night’ basis: (Remember – This cost does not take into account any dollars recovered from possible resale at the end of 20 years.) AKV - \$227.14 BLT - \$213.49 BCV - \$231.31 BWV - \$228.89 OKW (2042) - \$209.71 SSR - \$192.51 VWL - \$225.52 I’m not sure exactly what all this tells me yet. Clearly there are some cost savings by choosing SSR over the others, but I think most of us already knew that without my crazy spreadsheet. But is that savings enough on a ‘cost per night’ basis to choose a different resort where I’d really like to have the 11 month booking window? Definitely some interesting fodder for consideration. Non-flaming feedback is appreciated. Thanks, Mav
 11-26-2012, 02:53 PM #2 tjkraz DVC Owner SSR     Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Ohio Posts: 13,263 Not really sure what conclusions you can draw by combining dollars which are based upon 30 years of inflation adjustments. In 1982 the average wage was \$14k and the average car cost \$9k. Today those numbers are \$33k and \$18k. In 2042 it could be \$60K salary and \$35k car. I certainly did my share of running numbers before buying. But those average nightly costs don't really mean much if you're co-mingling dollars from present day along with 30 years of inflation adjustments. Any average over-states the financial burden in 2013 dollars and understates it for 2042. If you want to stick to simplistic analyses, I would recommend dividing the purchase price by 30 years and simply adding in your inflation-adjusted figure for each year's dues. 160 BWV points x \$62 / 30 years = \$330 per year \$5.84 dues x 160 points = \$934.40 dues 2013 Total cost 2013 = \$330 + \$934.40 = \$1264.40 / 8 nights = \$158.05 IMO, that's a more accurate 2013 cost which will rise over time as dues increase. Saying that BWV averages \$245.69 per night over a 30 years span doesn't really tell you much. __________________ -- Tim DVC owner at SSR, BWV and VGC
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11-26-2012, 08:02 PM   #3
Maverick
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by tjkraz If you want to stick to simplistic analyses, I would recommend dividing the purchase price by 30 years and simply adding in your inflation-adjusted figure for each year's dues. 160 BWV points x \$62 / 30 years = \$330 per year \$5.84 dues x 160 points = \$934.40 dues 2013 Total cost 2013 = \$330 + \$934.40 = \$1264.40 / 8 nights = \$158.05 IMO, that's a more accurate 2013 cost which will rise over time as dues increase. Saying that BWV averages \$245.69 per night over a 30 years span doesn't really tell you much.

Hi tjkraz,

Thank you for the feedback! I agree that co-mingling the dollars from 30 years from now with dollars today muddies the water quite a bit. For my purposes I was simply looking at for a TCO (total cost of ownership) and I really couldn't get to a meaningful number for me personally by looking at a single year. The cost per night figures were more of a by-product of the other research which I thought were interesting when doing the comparison.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DougEMG Now I did buy BWV which has a higher purchase price and higher MF than SSR, because I wanted that location, so there it was worth it to me. Although I justified it to myself that it was still going to be a good deal because of the standard view point cost at BWV makes those BWV points go further than a SSR point at SSR. One thing I can't tell is what did you use as the point costs for your stay? The point cost of staying at that resort or the same point cost for every resort. There is a big difference in the number of points to stay in the same sized room depending on the resort and view. AKV Value, OKW and BWV standard are really cheap on points.

Hey Doug,

I just used an average point stay of 20 points per night to keep things simple for me. (160 points divided by 20 points per night = 8 nights per year) I know the points needed changes a ton by resort. I saw another thread recently that went into how many points it would take to stay X days in different resorts throughout the year. That got kinda confusing, so I just simplified for me.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bighoo93 So while I think the lifetime cost per point (or per 20 points) is a useful metric, at least as relevant is the cost per night by room type. It wasn't your intention, but showing the cost per 20 points by resort at least implies that you are getting to stay the same number of nights and season and room type at those resorts, which isn't the case. You'd have to buy more points to stay at BLT than OKW, and that widens the cost difference. Anyway, overall I like what you've done. For someone who doesn't know where they would like to stay but just knows they want to buy and spend 160 points per year, this puts the cost into perspective. In my case, that point total was 250, which (with varying and limited borrowing/banking) will get me a 2 BR at any of the WDW resorts for a week in Adventure season. And I decided the savings at SSR was worth it. Because it wasn't enough points to stay in such a room at BLT every year, even though I would in theory have the right to book 11 months in advance every year.

Thanks bighoo93. You are very right. 160 points will go farther at one resort compared to another which would change the cost per night. A week in a value studio at AKV is significantly less points than a studio at BLT as an example. To your point... I'm one of those that wouldn't necessarily need to stay at my home resort every visit, but I think I would like an 11 month booking window on occasion for an AKL value studio to make those points go even further and extend my stay. Not necessaily every trip... But I'd like the option if that makes sense. The TCO difference between SSR and AKV for the 30 years, based on my calculations, is about \$9,000. I will have to eventually decide if having that 11 month booking window for an AKV value studio on occasion is worth \$9000. Decisions... Decisions!

Quote:
 Originally Posted by undchefreak If you do go into this greater detail, I'd love to see if your numbers turned out like mine. I did mine for a studio room, since it's just me for now.

undchefreak - This is a great idea and I will try to do that soon. Since my wife and I are empty nesters, the studio also fits us for now. I'm guessing all this work will eventually be in vain when we need a 2BR villa to house the future grandchildren one day. I haven't even purchased yet and wonder when the addonitis will set in. LOL

Thanks everyone for your feedback! You have all provided great additional information that will be helpful in our decision making process.

Mav

 11-26-2012, 09:56 PM #4 JZCubed DIS Veteran   Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,018 My calculation was a bit more simple - is a DVC point a good value? I was planning to take my family on a vacation to Disney in 2010 and realized that the \$thousands I was going to spend could also be a down payment on a DVC purchase. I bought points at BLT instead of paying for a hotel stay. I have no regret. I'm used to traveling to first-class accommodations. Disney offers fairly good service and quality for the money (compared to just about any child-friendly resort). According to my calculations, the payback period is about 12 years....and that uses a discounted DVC rate/point. What would any hotel room at a 'better' (non-Disney) resort cost? Is the entertainment as fun for children? Are children really the center-of-attention at these other resorts? Have you calculated all costs (like plane tickets) in determining true cost of staying at these other resorts? DVC ownership really pays off for those of us who are OK with paying more than \$200/night for a typical hotel room (I'm from NY). A 1- or 2-bedroom suite in a prime location is costly at any resort. Frankly, I find most DVC options to be a good value. __________________ WDW Off Site (1975, 76, 78), Contemporary (1985), Boardwalk Villas (1999, 2011), Beach Club Villas (2013), Animal Kingdom (2014), Swan & Dolphin (2011-2015), Bay Lake Tower (2010-2015) ABC Commisary (2.5-stars*-food), Akershus (3.0*; 5* princess interaction), Artist Point (3.5*), blueZoo (4.5* - Best (Sea) Food w/o jacket required), Boma (4.0* buffet breakfast*), Bongo's (3*), California Grill (3.5*food; 5*- Best View), Cape May Cafe (4* charcter breakfast w/ Goofy), Captain's Grille (2*), Casey's (4* - Qwik Serve Overstuffed Pulled Pork & Slaw w/ Hot Dog), Chef Mickey's (2* food; 5* characters), Cinderella's Royal Table (3.0* food; 4* characters), Citrico's (3.5*), Coral Reef (3.5* food; 4.5* for the view), Crystal Palace (2*), 50's Prime Time Cafe (2.5*), Flame Tree BBQ (3.5* - .5* for taking TiW), Flying Fish (3.5*), Grand Floridian Cafe (3*), Hollywood Brown Derby (3*), House of Blues (3.0* - BBQ), Il Mulino (4.0*), Jiko (3.5*), Le Cellier (3.5*), Les Chefs de France (3*), Les Halles Boulangerie Patisserie (4* - French pastry), Marrakesh (3* - Best Value 1-Credit/bit noisy; 4* belly dancers), Narcoossee's (3.5*), Rainforest Cafe (2*), Rose & Crown (2.5*), Sanaa (4* - View of Animals on Savannah), Sci-Fi Theatre (2.5*), Shula's Steakhouse (4*), Sleepy Hollow (4* Qwik Serve chicken waffles & coffee drinks), Spice Road Table (3.5*), Tamu Tamu (4* - Qwik Serve Hidden Gem) Victoria & Albert (5*- Best Service/Tasting Menu), Wave (2.5*), Yak & Yeti (2*) -- Items in BOLD are personal favorites. On my 'to dine' list: Monsieur Paul (2015?), Ohana (2016?), Yachtman's Steakhouse (2015?).
11-27-2012, 06:33 AM   #5
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Maverick Hi tjkraz, undchefreak - This is a great idea and I will try to do that soon. Since my wife and I are empty nesters, the studio also fits us for now. I'm guessing all this work will eventually be in vain when we need a 2BR villa to house the future grandchildren one day. I haven't even purchased yet and wonder when the addonitis will set in. LOL Mav
Since it sounds like you're only planning (in theory) to be using a studio for the next "X" number of years, you may want to compare the cost of DVC ownership vs. rack rates for the standard rooms at the Deluxe resorts (with/without discounts, free dining, etc.) for your theoretical 8-night stays.

It may be better to wait a bit before purchasing DVC (when, presumably, it will cost less \$\$ per point), until you need that 2BR villa ...

However, a word of warning: after just staying in a 1BR villa, we're spoiled - so you may want to figure that into your thinking also ...
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11-30-2012, 09:04 AM   #7
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by DougEMG If we look at the extreme example of comparing SSR (cheapest price) vrs BLT (best location) and assume no real difference in MF over the long run. Given the increases in MF for 2012 and 2013, it looks like if that trend continues BLT MF will be around the same as SSR MF in about 2-3 more years. So we assume that BLT MF and SSR MF are going to be roughly equal it really is just a matter of looking at your initial outlay. Buying 160 points at SSR for \$55/point will cost you \$8,800. Buying 160 points at BLT for \$85/point will cost you \$13,600, or \$4,800. So the equivalent options then are (1) Buy 160 points at SSR and have \$4,800 in your pocket. (2) Buy 247 points at SSR (3) Buy 160 points at BLT Point cost for a 1 bedroom Dec 01-08, 2012 SSR is 183 points BLT, standard view 194 points BLT, lake view is 222 points Is having the BLT location worth \$4,800 in extra upfront costs worth it to you? For me it isn't, but for lots of other people it is. Now I did buy BWV which has a higher purchase price and higher MF than SSR, because I wanted that location, so there it was worth it to me. Although I justified it to myself that it was still going to be a good deal because of the standard view point cost at BWV makes those BWV points go further than a SSR point at SSR. One thing I can't tell is what did you use as the point costs for your stay? The point cost of staying at that resort or the same point cost for every resort. There is a big difference in the number of points to stay in the same sized room depending on the resort and view. AKV Value, OKW and BWV standard are really cheap on points.
So for \$100 per year you get a much better location? Seems like a great deal to me!

People spend thousands more for a better location on a cruise ship for one week and the room is exactly the same size.
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11-30-2012, 11:39 AM   #8
DougEMG
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by KingRichard So for \$100 per year you get a much better location? Seems like a great deal to me! People spend thousands more for a better location on a cruise ship for one week and the room is exactly the same size.
If it was \$100 extra per year and payable at the start of each year, then sure I would do that as well. But it is actually \$100 per year left on your contract all payable in one lump sum at the start; hence the \$4800 difference in purchase price between buying the equivalent SSR vrs BLT contract.

Lots of people on the cruise ship buy standard rooms yet still enjoy all the ammenities that the cruise ship has.

There is no right and wrong answer here, the whole point is to allow people to make informed decision so they can do what works best for them.
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11-30-2012, 11:54 AM   #9
GOOFY D
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by DougEMG If it was \$100 extra per year and payable at the start of each year, then sure I would do that as well. But it is actually \$100 per year left on your contract all payable in one lump sum at the start; hence the \$4800 difference in purchase price between buying the equivalent SSR vrs BLT contract. Lots of people on the cruise ship buy standard rooms yet still enjoy all the ammenities that the cruise ship has. There is no right and wrong answer here, the whole point is to allow people to make informed decision so they can do what works best for them.
You're right, there is no right or wrong answer. It is based on personal preference. If paying that \$4800 up front basically guarantees (I know there are no "guarantees") that you will be able to stay at a resort that you greatly prefer via the 11 month booking window (in this case BLT), then maybe it is a small price to pay.
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 11-30-2012, 12:16 PM #10 jkpatrick Mouseketeer     Join Date: May 2007 Location: San Jose, CA Posts: 105 Right, it all depends on what someone values. As in, what they feel like their dollar is worth to them. Also, it was brought up on a thread, the cost of living where the owner lives and their salary affects what they can buy. Someone living in LA, SF/Silicon Valley, NYC probably would have the extra discretionary income to view that \$4800 is pocket change. Also someone who lives in Hawaii, wouldn't care so much for an ocean view room on a cruise ship.
 11-26-2012, 06:49 PM #12 undchefreak Mouseketeer   Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: CA - Hopefully international soon enough Posts: 117 I agree with bighoo on the room price differences. A better comparison may be to say you want 8 nights in a studio in the cheapest view, or the same for a 1 bedroom. By doing this, you will get the real cost per night (at current point allocations) for each resort. If this is done during Choice season for a 1 bedroom, then you would need 176 pts for Animal Kingdom, 224 pts for Bay Lake, 232 for Beach Club, ect. The difference in points cost will factor in greatly to the price per night for resort. Effectively, what you've shown is the cost to stay in the same 20 point room at the same resort using the different points. It's a fine calculation, but if most buyers buy at their favorite resort (where they will try to stay), the calculation doesn't exactly pan out. If you do go into this greater detail, I'd love to see if your numbers turned out like mine. I did mine for a studio room, since it's just me for now. __________________ Owner at OKW 1st Disney Visit - DL 1991 stayed with family (as a child) 1999 May Pop Movies----2013 new DVC member! 2009 May DW Offsite----2013 Jan Split stay SSR & OKW 2012 Sept Coronodo-----2013 Oct DL at VGC ----------------------------2014 Jan OKW
11-27-2012, 09:02 PM   #13
Dean
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by Maverick First... Let me start by saying I'm not a DVC owner, but we are looking! I’ve been to WDW quite often (and plan to continue) so it should definitely be something for us to look at very closely. Second... There are quite a few assumptions in the information below. Lots of variables that can be played with, but I tried to get as close to an 'apples to apples' comparison as possible. Third... I'm just sharing my calculations, so please don't flame me if you disagree! (Correction feedback would be welcome!) I'm hoping that some people out there might benefit from the info. Assumption #1: Purchase of 160 DVC points at the WDW DVC Resorts via resale. Full purchase price paid in cash (I.E. – No financing). Assumption #2: Current resale price average by resort. (This is certainly open to interpretation – Even if these averages are off by \$5 per point, that would be a total difference of only \$800 total) AKV - \$65 BLT - \$85 BCV - \$70 BWV - \$62 OKW (2042) - \$57 SSR - \$55 VWL - \$60 Assumption #3: An end date of 2042 is used for all resorts regardless of when the actual end date is. (30 years total cost) Assumption #4: 2013 MF's (posted today) and a 3.6% annual increase is used for future years. The annual MF increases are definitely the wild card we cannot predict. An annual 3.6% may not be a good number, but it is what i used. Assumption #5: Closing costs are not included. 2012 MF's are not included. (These would be a tiny fraction of the overall cost anyway...) Assumption #6: Eight nights average stay per year. This would change significantly based on room type / view / season chosen, but eight is a good number to use for simple averages across all the resorts. The TOTAL cost should be somewhat close to actual, but the cost per night will vary widely if you average more than 20 points per night. Assumption #7: I am not offsetting any of the purchase costs by a resale at the end of 30 years for AKV, BLT and SSR. For calculation purposes, I am assuming all value is 'used' at the end of 30 years. People will be able to sell these 30 years from now, but I chose to not include this in my particular 'apples to apples' comparison. Your 'apples to apples' might be different. Here's what I came up with: AKV current average resale: \$65/point AKV 2013 MF: \$5.6749/point AKV total cost for 30 years: \$58052 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$241.88 BLT current average resale: \$85/point BLT 2013 MF: \$4.4972/point BLT total cost for 30 years: \$51362 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$214.01 BCV current average resale: \$70/point BCV 2013 MF: \$5.6458/point BCV total cost for 30 years: \$58607 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$244.20 BWV current average resale: \$62/point BWV 2013 MF: \$5.8409/point BWV total cost for 30 years: \$58965 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$245.69 OKW (2042) current average resale: \$57/point OKW 2013 MF: \$5.3447/point OKW total cost for 30 years: \$53999 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$225.00 SSR current average resale: \$55/point SSR 2013 MF: \$4.8129/point SSR total cost for 30 years: \$49213 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$205.06 VWL current average resale: \$60/point VWL 2013 MF: \$5.7931/point VWL total cost for 30 years: \$58224 Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: \$242.68 I found it quite interesting that AKV, BC, BWV and VWL were SO CLOSE in total anticipated cost per night over the 30 years. Of those, however… AKV will be the only one with years remaining (after 2042) where some initial purchase price might be recoverable, although that is also debatable since MF’s will be pretty high at that point. LOL I ran the same simulations for 20 years and the numbers are still very close on a ‘cost per night’ basis: (Remember – This cost does not take into account any dollars recovered from possible resale at the end of 20 years.) AKV - \$227.14 BLT - \$213.49 BCV - \$231.31 BWV - \$228.89 OKW (2042) - \$209.71 SSR - \$192.51 VWL - \$225.52 I’m not sure exactly what all this tells me yet. Clearly there are some cost savings by choosing SSR over the others, but I think most of us already knew that without my crazy spreadsheet. But is that savings enough on a ‘cost per night’ basis to choose a different resort where I’d really like to have the 11 month booking window? Definitely some interesting fodder for consideration. Non-flaming feedback is appreciated. Thanks, Mav
Overall it's hard to argue with your approach. IMO, the apples to apples would be per year or per night carried out to the RTU end, not all to the same date and the number of points for an applicable unit for the 8 nights rather than assuming they are all the same, but I understand your thoughts. The points needed are not the same for each resort so you could consider using the amount of points for a given unit size for a week, rather than keeping that fixed. The prices listed are likely a little high, esp having OKW above SSR. With your assumptions BLT looks overly favorable, unrealistically so because it takes more points to stay there and OKW is priced too high and partly because the dues are coming back to the pack as expected. I think one also should consider the time value of money, esp for BLT because the upfront price difference is significant, it's likely not much of an issue with the rest (at WDW) since their up front costs are much closer.

Personally I think taking a given years dues and running them out is a little dicey. One might want to look a little deeper. BLT is cheaper partly because they have been artificially kept down and partly because it costs more points so the per point cost is less. BCV is less mostly because there are less transportation costs, this could easily change. Structure and resort wise it's likely BLT will remain less but not as much as as it has been and SSR is likely to be the cheapest otherwise because of less amenities than some and a favorable structure makeup over say OKW. You'll also see that DVC is generally around double a comparable non DVC timeshare that works for the area assuming you only use the points for DVC/Orlando stays.
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 11-28-2012, 11:29 AM #14 Maverick Mouseketeer     Join Date: Aug 1999 Location: Ohio Posts: 279 Dean, Thanks very much for your continued insight. I follow your threads and replies closely! I'm going to do more analysis on the 'same unit type' across the various resorts when time permits as this will not only give me a more common 'cost per night' figure, but will also help me understand if I need more or less points based on our current expected travel patterns. This obviously assumes staying at the same home resort all the time, which may or may nor be practical, but keeps the apples to apples in play. Thanks again! Mav

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