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-   -   Just how much DID DCL jack up prices in 2015? (http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3210359)

dsnydaddy 12-17-2013 05:09 PM

Just how much DID DCL jack up prices in 2015?
 
This is the question that I asked myself as I am planning our Oct 2015 trip on the Fantasy. I've been reading all the horror stories that you have so I wanted to look into the prices myself to determine the answer.

First, I gotta tell you the answer is very difficult to determine. First off, I looked on the opening prices for 2014 thread and and determined that there seems to be a problem with the data contained therein. The obvious problem is that everyone knows that as the Disney Ships fill they tier up. Meaning that the prices go to the next tier and as a result if the sailing was particularly popular the opening day prices could be tiered up and there's no real way of knowing that. The other problem that I have was that there's really only 4 months of 2015 released and if you look at the opening prices thread for the Fantasy, there's only January and February that have a lot of respondents. March and April have relatively few. Now for the more insidious problem that I had with the data from this thread. I'm going to go "not very far out on a limb" here and say that most of us who frequent the DCL portion of the DIS have been on more than one cruise. And up until the recent changes we all keep a dummy date in our pocket for opening day. Right? Now, I find it HIGHLY unlikely that of the 24 respondents for opening day only 2 of them had OBB. I believe that a great many of these prices reflect a 10% discount but which ones? See what I mean? The data is dirty.

Now go on to comparing current prices for Jan-Apr 2014 to the prices for Jan-Apr for 2015. This data is even worse. Why? Because all the cruises are less than 5 months away and have all tiered up. Add to the mix that the Fantasy is alternating Eastern and Western cruises in 2014 and the Fantasy and Magic have these cruise split between them for 2015 and you include a new layer of complexity to comparisons. Now here's another monkey wrench thrown in that you need to adjust for. The Fantasy's inside cabins tend to be higher priced than the Magic's. And the Magic's Verandah's then to be higher priced than the Fantasy's. Sheesh! It's enough to give one a headache.

So today I sat down and made a comparison sheet for the two years to see how much has really changed price wise. Here's my findings:

Disclaimer: I chose one cabin form the Inside, oceanview and verandah categories to compare. I also looked at the cheaper cruises because it is my contention that the more popular cruises have tiered up and as a result are much more difficult to compare. I also factored for just two to a cabin because varying ages of the 3rd and 4th passengers can really mess up a comparison. I also only looked at the Fantasy 2014 and the Fantasy/Magic 2015 cruises. I didn't want to be bogged down in too much complexity.

If you simply look at booking a cruise in the next 4 months and the price you would pay compared to waiting for the newly released dates in 2015 you would see a substantial savings in waiting. Lending credence to the oft rendered advice to book early. The actual savings was all over the map due to the varying degrees that individual cruises have tiered up. but you could save as little as 1% to as much at 37% (in only one instance) by booking a 2015 cruise. But critics would point out (and they would be correct) that this is an unfair comparison and that you would need to compare opening day prices to see what if any price increases have occurred.

So, I added to my spreadsheet the opening day prices. Now, bear in mind... I only had really two months of data January and February had a lot of data whereas March and April had relatively few respondents. Here's where I had really seen the OBB problem. Percentage-wise I see that the 2015 Fantasy/Magic prices are approximately 13-25% over the Fantasy 2014 opening day prices. That's a suspicious spread because it's right around the 10% OBB figure. In other words. If I work a price quote off the DCL website I get a number without discount. And if I take the opening day prices at face value I see a jump in DCL's prices of about 13-25% but if you assume (and I do) that some respondents did not report the OBB when they reported their opening day prices then you get a more moderate 3-15% price increase over 2014. Now, I know that 15% really isn't that moderate but again take into account that these prices have been out for a while and some have tiered up. That will account for about a 5-10% boost.

Here's my conclusion. When opening day prices went up. It appeared to me that everyone shopping for a cruise were looking to book the same few weeks. That caused the prices to tier up rapidly and make it look like prices jumped dramatically (and realistically they had) Plus, those most likely to report unsavory numbers are the ones most shocked by the price jump. But one has no way of knowing at which tier that the respondent received their quote.

So, while everyone has been crying doom and gloom, it really looked to me like the prices (at least those that I looked at) were not to far removed from the previous year.

I'm sure that I'll probably get flamed a bit.:furious: But I'm not thinking that the prices looked too incredible.

TitanBrett 12-17-2013 05:27 PM

Week before Halloween on the fantasy in a 7a has been very similar for 2012, 2013 and 2014. Within 5 percent.

Concierge went up like crazy for 2014 though. I paid $5200 for a cat v for oct and that's like $7200 on 2014

NurseDave 12-17-2013 05:28 PM

It is....what it is.

dsnydaddy 12-17-2013 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitanBrett (Post 50282718)
Week before Halloween on the fantasy in a 7a has been very similar for 2012, 2013 and 2014. Within 5 percent.

Concierge went up like crazy for 2014 though. I paid $5200 for a cat v for oct and that's like $7200 on 2014

That's basically what I've been finding too. So, I've not been too scared about what I'll find when October 2015 is released.

dsnydaddy 12-17-2013 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NurseDave (Post 50282723)
It is....what it is.

:rotfl2:Very Zen!

bumbershoot 12-17-2013 06:08 PM

196.62.

Comparing what we paid for our 3-night cat V Dream cruise this Feb with the nearly-the-same-dates Feb 2015 3-night Cat V Dream shown right now.

TheLanes 12-17-2013 06:09 PM

FYI: I used an OBB to move my booking to a January 2015 cruise. The price I provided on the opening day thread was without the OBB discount. Not sure why it is even an option to list it, as it only adds to everyone's confusion.

lbgraves 12-17-2013 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheLanes (Post 50282970)
FYI: I used an OBB to move my booking to a January 2015 cruise. The price I provided on the opening day thread was without the OBB discount. Not sure why it is even an option to list it, as it only adds to everyone's confusion.

It's an option because when you get your pricing from the TA or DCL with the 10% discount, they don't give you the amount you would have paid without the discount. Opening day for platinum & gold doesn't have the pricing available on the website so it's not like you can check and see what it was at that time, and that is the reason the threads were started. It gives silver & new cruisers an idea of what pricing started at.

To the OP, if you want to get more pricing for 2014 at this point, you can get all categories at cruisefish.net, along with every price increase along the way. The inside stateroom on the Dream and Fantasy sometimes even cost more than oceanview rooms on the same ship. That is because there aren't many of them and the virtual portholes are a novelty that people want to experience. DCL can price them higher and sell them, so they do.

ETA: I just checked cruisefish and they have all the pricing for 2015 so far as well.

TheLanes 12-17-2013 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lbgraves (Post 50283552)
It's an option because when you get your pricing from the TA or DCL with the 10% discount, they don't give you the amount you would have paid without the discount. Opening day for platinum & gold doesn't have the pricing available on the website so it's not like you can check and see what it was at that time, and that is the reason the threads were started. It gives silver & new cruisers an idea of what pricing started at. To the OP, if you want to get more pricing for 2014 at this point, you can get all categories at cruisefish.net, along with every price increase along the way. The inside stateroom on the Dream and Fantasy sometimes even cost more than oceanview rooms on the same ship. That is because there aren't many of them and the virtual portholes are a novelty that people want to experience. DCL can price them higher and sell them, so they do. ETA: I just checked cruisefish and they have all the pricing for 2015 so far as well.

My TA provided both costs, not sure why some would hide the total before discount

lbgraves 12-17-2013 09:52 PM

I've never gotten the total cost without the discount. I don't think that it's a matter of anyone hiding something. Most TAs are too busy getting all the quotes for their clients and moving existing reservations to say to get the DCL rep on the phone to give them a totally separate quote. I get the email she receives from DCL confirming the reservation, and it definitely doesn't appear on that.

carlnlisa 12-17-2013 10:23 PM

So I am going to ask a question that will make me sound stupid but I have had very little sleep due to a teething baby and my brain is mostly mush at this time and in no way able to calculate math. Based on your findings how much more do you guess a 1 bedroom concierge suite will be in September 2015 then in September 2014? I have asked the Disney TA we are using but all she said was because September is usually a slow month she suspects it will be close to the same but everything I have read has said to add 20%

dsnydaddy 12-18-2013 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lbgraves (Post 50283552)

To the OP, if you want to get more pricing for 2014 at this point, you can get all categories at cruisefish.net, along with every price increase along the way. The inside stateroom on the Dream and Fantasy sometimes even cost more than oceanview rooms on the same ship. That is because there aren't many of them and the virtual portholes are a novelty that people want to experience. DCL can price them higher and sell them, so they do.

ETA: I just checked cruisefish and they have all the pricing for 2015 so far as well.

That's a good idea, I'll have to look into that site for my comparisons. Thanks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheLanes (Post 50283948)
My TA provided both costs, not sure why some would hide the total before discount

My TA has never given me the before discount price either. I usually double check things when they come up on the website.

Quote:

Originally Posted by carlnlisa (Post 50284362)
So I am going to ask a question that will make me sound stupid but I have had very little sleep due to a teething baby and my brain is mostly mush at this time and in no way able to calculate math. Based on your findings how much more do you guess a 1 bedroom concierge suite will be in September 2015 then in September 2014? I have asked the Disney TA we are using but all she said was because September is usually a slow month she suspects it will be close to the same but everything I have read has said to add 20%

Well by my estimates it should be from 5-10% more but as the above poster mentioned... Concierge seems to have jumped even more than the average cabin. I didn't even do the math on these cabins because from my perspective, I'll never really look into those. I've got too much else to spend my money on.

gomagic 12-18-2013 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carlnlisa (Post 50284362)
So I am going to ask a question that will make me sound stupid but I have had very little sleep due to a teething baby and my brain is mostly mush at this time and in no way able to calculate math. Based on your findings how much more do you guess a 1 bedroom concierge suite will be in September 2015 then in September 2014? I have asked the Disney TA we are using but all she said was because September is usually a slow month she suspects it will be close to the same but everything I have read has said to add 20%

I can tell you just based on opening day prices for March 2014 in a Cat V vs opening day prices for March 2015 in a Cat V(same week) the price more than doubled for 2015 - close to a 55% price increase :eek: A week earlier in March 2015, and it was closer to a 40% price increase. :sad2:

IBelieveInTheMagic 12-18-2013 07:09 AM

Both our Spring Break cruises were booked on opening day. I was Silver last year when I booked our 4/12/14 Fantasy cruise but Gold this time when I booked 4/4/14. The 2014 cruise we get back the day *before* Easter and in 2015 we would cruise the day before Easter so it would include Easter.

So for true comparisons, per CruiseFish - our 2014 cruise (looking at the 4/19/14 cruise as it would include Easter) it was $1764 for the first two passengers.

Now comparing it to the same time in 2015 it is $2604 for the first two passengers so an increase of $840 *per person* (at least for the first two). This is in a Cat 5E by the way. We booked the 5E for the 2014 cruise, however I'm not willing to pay over $2000 more for the same cabin a year later. Our cruise went up approx 34% and that's NUTS! I understand it's Spring Break and Easter which is why it's not "cheap" to begin with but comparing the same time a year later it shouldn't be 34% higher - ouch. I ended up putting us in a Cat 7A and that is still higher than our 5E in 2014. I'm not too worried about it as this is a "back-up" to Alaska in 2015 however I'm worried Alaska 2015 will go up a lot as well - I hope me and the others that are afraid are really wrong - lol! :rotfl:

Heather

mom4fun 12-18-2013 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IBelieveInTheMagic
Both our Spring Break cruises were booked on opening day. I was Silver last year when I booked our 4/12/14 Fantasy cruise but Gold this time when I booked 4/4/14. The 2014 cruise we get back the day *before* Easter and in 2015 we would cruise the day before Easter so it would include Easter.

So for true comparisons, per CruiseFish - our 2014 cruise (looking at the 4/19/14 cruise as it would include Easter) it was $1764 for the first two passengers.

Now comparing it to the same time in 2015 it is $2604 for the first two passengers so an increase of $840 *per person* (at least for the first two). This is in a Cat 5E by the way. We booked the 5E for the 2014 cruise, however I'm not willing to pay over $2000 more for the same cabin a year later. Our cruise went up approx 34% and that's NUTS! I understand it's Spring Break and Easter which is why it's not "cheap" to begin with but comparing the same time a year later it shouldn't be 34% higher - ouch. I ended up putting us in a Cat 7A and that is still higher than our 5E in 2014. I'm not too worried about it as this is a "back-up" to Alaska in 2015 however I'm worried Alaska 2015 will go up a lot as well - I hope me and the others that are afraid are really wrong - lol! :rotfl:

Heather

For 2015 April 4 Cruise got a double wammy price increase because a large portion of schools base their spring break on the week before easter the other big group always has their spring break the first full week of april. So you can see this became even more high demand as a result. Now on the other hand if you wait to go one week later on April 11, it is 1589.00 per first 2 adult cruisers in a 5e cabin. That is much cheaper than 2014 opening day prices even for weeks that did not include easter.


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