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-   -   DVC Price changes (http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3190327)

shpdem 10-23-2013 03:24 PM

DVC Price changes
 
What is currently dictating the price increases from a year ago, does anybody think this will change and start declining with 2 new resorts coming up or will they prob continue to rise?

chalee94 10-23-2013 03:29 PM

mostly, it's going to be a function of supply and demand.

demand has been up due to the improving economy, which has also pushed supply down, as fewer owners are being foreclosed on or otherwise being forced to sell.

i'm sure some demand is up due to people wanting VGF who didn't want any other DVC.

no telling how things will look in 6 months. if you know for sure, you can probably also predict the stock market...

Anthony1971 10-24-2013 11:00 AM

No one knows BUT if we follow history.
If house prices go up so will Timeshare prices but at a much faster pace so we are seeing now.
If house prices go down so will Timeshare prices but at a much faster pace so we saw.
No one knows where they will level off at but at some point they will.
You could have bought a condo in Orlando for less than DVC now not long ago....

DVC Dude 10-24-2013 11:22 PM

I am not sure if you are talking about Disney direct prices or resales.

Disney direct prices only go in one direction and that is UP

Resale prices tend to go in cycles and are different for each resort. They have been as low as 15% less than direct prices and fell to well below 50% a few years ago.

Resale prices are also dependent on the number of current or banked points and the size of the contract.

Minniesgal 10-25-2013 12:23 AM

I think VGF will have very little effect on resale prices. It is a very small resort, a lot of people who bought really wanted it and had been waiting for years. I know there will be some resales but I think it will be like VgC very limited in number and snapped up quickly for a high price.

DVC Dude 10-25-2013 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minniesgal (Post 49919216)
I think VGF will have very little effect on resale prices. It is a very small resort, a lot of people who bought really wanted it and had been waiting for years. I know there will be some resales but I think it will be like VgC very limited in number and snapped up quickly for a high price.

yes, but someone buying a cheap SSR contract or even VB will be able to book VGF at the month mark.

It appears that not all the rooms there are gone at 11 months, only the lowest priced ones go quick.

Minniesgal 10-25-2013 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVC Dude (Post 49921256)
yes, but someone buying a cheap SSR contract or even VB will be able to book VGF at the month mark. It appears that not all the rooms there are gone at 11 months, only the lowest priced ones go quick.

I wouldn't bank on it. Any dates we have looked for have not been available

crisi 10-25-2013 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shpdem (Post 49906886)
What is currently dictating the price increases from a year ago, does anybody think this will change and start declining with 2 new resorts coming up or will they prob continue to rise?

My bet will be rise. Disney will raise the prices on the new resorts - because they always do - and that will make resales look like more of a bargain than they do now. Unless something happens to change things - like the economy changing the supply demand equation as it did during the recession.

DVC Dude 10-27-2013 09:28 AM

The reason VGF is so booked is that it is a new resort and everyone wants to give it a try.

In a year or two, the novelty will wear off and people will want to stay at the NEW Poly DVC and availability for VGF will open up more. Of course the selling point will be that people will need to BUY at the Poly to book a room there (they always say that).

The #1 problem with VGF is that the point cost per night is VERY high as compared to other resorts and people will eventually gravitate to less expensive rooms to use their points.

Judique 10-27-2013 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVC Dude (Post 49934824)
The reason VGF is so booked is that it is a new resort and everyone wants to give it a try.

In a year or two, the novelty will wear off and people will want to stay at the NEW Poly DVC and availability for VGF will open up more. Of course the selling point will be that people will need to BUY at the Poly to book a room there (they always say that).

The #1 problem with VGF is that the point cost per night is VERY high as compared to other resorts and people will eventually gravitate to less expensive rooms to use their points.

When BLT opened up, the point cost to me seemed pretty high. So I didn't even try to stay there. Now, no prob! Lakeview studio in February on a weekend 23 points!

Now GFV seems high, but I booked 2 nights lake view and 2 nights standard (what I could get) for my february trip. Now I'm thinking of cancelling those 2 lakeview nights cause I could get 4 nights for the same points elsewhere. So what you say may be true as time goes on. I want to stay just to try it out. Even now I think I prefer BLT's location because of the ability to walk to Magic Kingdom.

BrerNashville 10-28-2013 01:05 PM

I would think the "sticker" price of Disney purchases will continue to go up at random intervals. The incentives offered to reduce the per point cost, will fluctuate, and may or may not lead to lower cost per point in the future. My guess is you would need a 2008 style meltdown for effective prices to actually decline, but who knows?

SugarLoaf 10-28-2013 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DVC Dude (Post 49921256)
yes, but someone buying a cheap SSR contract or even VB will be able to book VGF at the month mark.

It appears that not all the rooms there are gone at 11 months, only the lowest priced ones go quick.

Hmm...I personally think just the opposite regarding things getting easier to book there due to the novelty wearing off. I think main reason there has been somewhat good availability thus far is because not even half of the VGF points have been sold yet. Once it sells out, there will be many more owners booking there before the 7 month mark, IMO making it harder to book there in a couple years.

Just my thought/guess though! It'll be interesting to see how it all settles in.

bakerworld 11-02-2013 08:59 AM

I just checked VGF for June 2 week and every view/selection/day was available except for the 1st day of the lake view studio - guess someone is walking :dance3:

bakerworld 11-02-2013 09:27 AM

IMO I think what DVD was selling was why prices were stabilized/depressed in the 2000 decade. The economy had an effect but IMO it was a lack of interest in AKL or SSR - we weren't but we couldn't walk away from the incentives offered at AKL in '08. Trouble is - and IMO this is why there are so many resell AKL contracts - if you're dependent on WDW buses the AKL can get on your nerves. We've owned 5 years and have stayed twice (3 times if you count a 1-night) and one of the two times was a split stay. BLT sales drove the prices up. Aulani wasn't an incentive for the east coast WDW FL repeat tourist. The GF is flying off the shelf which is my IMO the Poly is online so fast. I think as long as you can give the WDW FL repeat tourist a quick route to a major park then they be interested.


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