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-   -   ROFR & Sales Dec '12-Jun '13 (http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3136654)

dmunsil 07-05-2013 05:58 PM

ROFR & Sales Dec '12-Jun '13
 
The deeds are up-to-date on the OCC web site, so here are the latest stats updated for June 2013. The posts with sale and ROFR prices per point will be coming shortly. The short version is that prices are going up across the board. Every resort's average resale prices went up by $2-$5 per point, as did the ROFR prices for the resorts where there were ROFRs.

New sales activity went way up, as expected, because of VGF. All the other resorts had lower sales except BWV, probably because the guides were occupied with VGF sales.

ROFR rate went up for VWL, BCV, BWV, and OKW. In the case of VWL, Disney took almost half the contracts!

Note to mods: I'm posting this here because I think it's useful for people contemplating a purchase. Some of these sale/ROFR data posts got moved to DVC-Mouscellaneous, and I'm not sure if it's because it's a better place for this data or because the thread veered off topic. If I should be posting them in Mousecellaneous, PM me and I'll put future posts of this type there.

Code:

Third-party Sales                                                     
        Dec-12  Jan-13  Feb-13  Mar-13  Apr-13  May-13  Jun-13
BLT    24      29      30      27      34      35      26
VWL    13      9      14      25      18      16      9
BWV    28      26      28      39      25      25      21
BCV    8      18      17      24      15      14      24
OKW    12      22      21      32      30      28      37
SSR    61      78      51      87      65      104    80
AKV    29      23      30      26      35      52      40
------------------------------------------------------------
Total  175    205    191    260    222    274    237
                                                       
ROFR exercises                                                 
        Dec-12  Jan-13  Feb-13  Mar-13  Apr-13  May-13  Jun-13
BLT    0      0      0      4      10      4      2
VWL    0      0      0      5      4      3      8
BWV    0      0      0      0      16      9      9
BCV    0      0      0      1      1      3      7
OKW    28      10      8      8      20      7      14
SSR    1      0      0      8      17      5      0
AKV    0      0      0      1      0      2      0
------------------------------------------------------------
Total  29      10      8      27      68      33      40
                                                       
ROFR Rate                                                     
        Dec-12  Jan-13  Feb-13  Mar-13  Apr-13  May-13  Jun-13
BLT    0%      0%      0%      13%    23%    10%    7%
VWL    0%      0%      0%      17%    18%    16%    47%
BWV    0%      0%      0%      0%      39%    26%    30%
BCV    0%      0%      0%      4%      6%      18%    23%
OKW    70%    31%    28%    20%    40%    20%    27%
SSR    2%      0%      0%      8%      21%    5%      0%
AKV    0%      0%      0%      4%      0%      4%      0%
------------------------------------------------------------
Overall 14%    5%      4%      9%      23%    11%    14%
                                                       
Foreclosure/Bankruptcy/Trade-in                                               
        Dec-12  Jan-13  Feb-13  Mar-13  Apr-13  May-13  Jun-13
BLT    28      28      8      34      15      6      15
VWL    1      4      0      2      0      0      1
BWV    0      0      2      4      1      1      2
BCV    2      3      4      5      0      1      3
OKW    0      1      1      2      1      0      0
SSR    56      84      27      100    22      25      25
AKV    32      42      18      59      25      20      21
------------------------------------------------------------
Total  119    162    60      206    64      53      67
                                                       
Gratuitous transfers                                                   
        Dec-12  Jan-13  Feb-13  Mar-13  Apr-13  May-13  Jun-13
BLT    12      3      20      11      15      16      6
VWL    7      5      22      7      9      12      8
BWV    13      14      19      14      21      10      17
BCV    7      6      16      6      13      17      9
OKW    28      23      44      28      31      51      28
SSR    27      19      56      31      30      49      29
AKV    10      6      15      11      9      10      7
------------------------------------------------------------
Total  104    76      192    108    128    165    104
                                                       
New Sales                                                     
        Dec-12  Jan-13  Feb-13  Mar-13  Apr-13  May-13  Jun-13
BLT    115    223    170    144    153    58      28
VWL    19      45      42      15      32      11      3
BWV    38      76      143    155    53      26      29
BCV    31      46      26      11      17      10      0
OKW    47      48      42      58      36      53      9
SSR    170    188    113    112    89      117    51
AKV    443    627    421    452    916    804    721
VGF    0      0      0      0      0      0      675
------------------------------------------------------------
Total  863    1253    957    947    1296    1079    1516


NoleFan 07-05-2013 06:15 PM

Wow, thanks for continuing to compile all this great info.!!

JustTinking 07-05-2013 06:19 PM

Yikes!! The carnage continues on the ROFR side. Let me know when it's safe to go back in the water!!

NoleFan 07-05-2013 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustTinking (Post 48870837)
Yikes!! The carnage continues on the ROFR side. Let me know when it's safe to go back in the water!!

& the prices keep going, up, up, up ! Sellers market for sure.

ELMC 07-05-2013 06:27 PM

One thing that I think is important to note is that the data shows up in the month that the deed was recorded. Frequently this is one or two months after the disappointed would-be buyer is informed that their contract has been taken by ROFR. So although it looks like April was the big month for ROFR activity, that is actually a reflection of DVD's activity in February and March.

twinsouvenirs 07-05-2013 06:29 PM

Fascinating!!! It's shocking how much of the FC/BNKY action is at SSR and BLT--I wonder if the defaulted contracts simply get weeded out early and since these are newer properties they have the highest rate of people letting them go?

twinsouvenirs 07-05-2013 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustTinking (Post 48870837)
Yikes!! The carnage continues on the ROFR side. Let me know when it's safe to go back in the water!!

Yeah, this puts me in no hurry on my resale contract hunt. I might just wait till the furor dies down since we don't really need the points for our first DVC member vacay in February '14.

JustTinking 07-05-2013 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELMC (Post 48870904)
One thing that I think is important to note is that the data shows up in the month that the deed was recorded. Frequently this is one or two months after the disappointed would-be buyer is informed that their contract has been taken by ROFR. So although it looks like April was the big month for ROFR activity, that is actually a reflection of DVD's activity in February and March.

So, does that coincide with the Disney price increase and everyone jumping on the waitlist? And Disney then trying to fill their waitlist?

ELMC 07-05-2013 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twinsouvenirs (Post 48870912)
Fascinating!!! It's shocking how much of the FC/BNKY action is at SSR and BLT--I wonder if the defaulted contracts simply get weeded out early and since these are newer properties they have the highest rate of people letting them go?

SSR, BLT and AKV are the most recent direct offerings and have had incredibly high price points compared to the other resorts when they were offered direct. Depending on when you purchased, all three of them have the potential for significant and instant depreciation of cash value. Combine that with the fact that most DVC purchases are impulse buys (many of which are financed) and are rarely researched, and you have a high foreclosure rate. If someone is going to have significant buyer's remorse it's going to be within the first few years.

But more importantly, now you know why we talk so much about making informed choices, the potential pitfalls of buying direct, the safer option of resale, etc. People may think we are being condescending, but there are 600 people this calendar year alone that probably could have benefited from that advice. Hopefully this sheds some light on why we say some of the things we do.

ELMC 07-05-2013 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustTinking (Post 48871601)
So, does that coincide with the Disney price increase and everyone jumping on the waitlist? And Disney then trying to fill their waitlist?

For the most part, yes, the two happened in the same general time frame. Many of the ROFRs came in February, but my best explanation of that is that DVD knew what was coming down the pike and was getting ready.

Nobody really knows the inner workings of DVD and more specifically the wait list. But a logical timeline that can be constructed is that DVD announced price increases across the board, buyers moved in droves to get in before the impending price increase, DVD ran out of inventory at many resorts, which forced them to put buyers on a wait list and increase their ROFR activity to fill the wait lists.

In my mind this is an oversimplification, as there is simply I lot I don't understand with regards to DVD's ROFR policy. For example, why would DVD ROFR a contract at $68 only to sell it at $115 (the profit margin is not nearly as good as one might think)? But in absence of a better explanation, it's the one I'm going with.

JustTinking 07-05-2013 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELMC (Post 48871723)
For the most part, yes, the two happened in the same general time frame. Many of the ROFRs came in February, but my best explanation of that is that DVD knew what was coming down the pike and was getting ready.

Nobody really knows the inner workings of DVD and more specifically the wait list. But a logical timeline that can be constructed is that DVD announced price increases across the board, buyers moved in droves to get in before the impending price increase, DVD ran out of inventory at many resorts, which forced them to put buyers on a wait list and increase their ROFR activity to fill the wait lists.

In my mind this is an oversimplification, as there is simply I lot I don't understand with regards to DVD's ROFR policy. For example, why would DVD ROFR a contract at $68 only to sell it at $115 (the profit margin is not nearly as good as one might think)? But in absence of a better explanation, it's the one I'm going with.

Hmmm....$68 to $115 with little to no work sounds like a good spread....a deal I would take without looking twice. But I'm not a finance wizard. Am I missing something?

JustTinking 07-05-2013 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twinsouvenirs (Post 48870964)
Yeah, this puts me in no hurry on my resale contract hunt. I might just wait till the furor dies down since we don't really need the points for our first DVC member vacay in February '14.

Yes, I'm with you! Now is a good time to learn patience.

ELMC 07-05-2013 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustTinking (Post 48871879)
Hmmm....$68 to $115 with little to no work sounds like a good spread....a deal I would take without looking twice. But I'm not a finance wizard. Am I missing something?

Typically timeshare costs are in the 25-40% range. So a BWV point that sells for $115 probably cost DVC somewhere around $35. In this case, they are paying $68...the profit margin is much less than usual. Put another way, they could have sold that buyer AKV which has a much higher profit margin, which is why guides typically refer to the older resorts as "sold out" when we really know that means that the initial offering sold out and they are still available (albeit with a wait list).

One other thing to consider is that at $68, DVD is making $47 in "profit" on that sale. But out of that $47 they still need to pay commissions, marketing fees, overhead, salaries, etc. When it comes down to it, ROFRing contracts at that level doesn't make anywhere near the amount of money that selling actively marketed resorts does. But, as is the case with ROFR and the inner workings of DVD, I am sure that there is something else at work that I know nothing about. But what I do know is that the profit just isn't there at these levels.

jsolar 07-06-2013 06:00 AM

Hello. I'm very new to DVC. What is ROFC?

Kidanifan08 07-06-2013 06:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsolar (Post 48873872)
Hello. I'm very new to DVC. What is ROFC?

ROFR = Right Of First Refusal

When a DVC member decides to sell their contract, DVC has the first option to purchase the contract once there is an offer on the table. They generally take up to 30 days before making a final decision. It is a way for DVC to take ownership of points to then re-sell as a direct sale. This is the process during the purchase of a resale contract that generally takes the longest.

There has been a fair amount of ROFR activity recently on some of the older sold out resorts, presumably to fulfill waitlists for those resorts.


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