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-   -   FP+ Capacity per Park Summary of Work so far 2/9/2013 (http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3054568)

 bcrook 01-26-2013 09:55 PM

FP+ Capacity per Park Summary of Work so far 2/9/2013

I am trying to figure out how many total fastpass slots are a available for each park. Which leads to an interesting question of how they will be doled out by Disney.

Total FP+ needed per park per day based on the idea of 1 e-ticket FP+ and 2 other rides.

Magic Kingdom = 46,500 e-ticket FP+ and 93,000 other FP+
Hollywood Studios = 27,000 e-ticket FP+ and 54,000 other FP+
Animal Kingdom = 27,000 e-ticket FP+ and 54,000 other FP+
Epcot + 27,000 e-ticket FP+ and 54,000 other FP+

Total FP+ available from each park based on 60% FP+ distribution:
Magic Kingdom (14 hours) = 80,000 e-ticket and 128,000 other FP+
Hollywood Studios = (13 hours) = 42,500 e-ticket and 60,000 other FP+
Animal Kingdom (10 hours) = 37,800 e-ticket and 46,000 other FP+
Epcot (10 hours) = 40,800 e-ticket and 62,500 other FP+

Total Surplus e-ticket FP+ per day = 72,000
Total Surplus other FP+ per day = 41,000

Total surplus = 113,000 Fastpasses.

If Disney overbooks 10% for no-shows that would add 11,000 more and every morning extra magic hour adds more capacity. 125,000 extra FP a day on average.

How could those extra be "used"?

1. Surprise and Delight sent to people throughout the day.
2. Incentives for Deluxe guests.
3. They could be sold for \$5.00 a pop (100,000 a day would equal \$182,000,000 a year).
4. They could make them available for Free during the day first come first serve.

What they can't do is...
Add 1 more to everybody's pile. It really looks like 3 is the magic number. 4 would bust the system.

UNLESS - they build more rides!

 lockedoutlogic 01-26-2013 10:36 PM

Its been documented on a couple of those....

Haunted mansion could handle about 3000 per hour...i believe the first ride system ever to do so...so you do the math on that.

Pirates would be probably a little less...but i think that also is north of 2500.

Peter pan would be around the same if it didn't break down all the time...but it has the same continuous circuit kinda system as haunted mansion...so again you're right there.

All disney rides - more or less - especially at WDW were built with capacity first and foremost.
If you look at it...there are probably many rides and technologies that were scrapped because of this one requirement.

I've heard people mention on the street before - "disney is great...but alot of the rides/ shows seem to be the same"

wonder why?
especially the original epcot - where it was all basically the same ride system with a few little tweaks and changes - except universe of energy - ironically the opposite of a good use of time.

toy story mania is i'm sure high capacity too...but i don't remember seeing any kind of exact number.

 bcrook 01-27-2013 03:33 PM

Magic kingdom. FP +

Magic kingdom total fastpass plus -

E-ticket FP+ allotment
Space mountain - 21,000
Splash mountain - 15,000
Big thunder mountain - 18,000
Peter Pan - 6700
Little Mermaid 15120
Total - 80,000 @ 60% FP+ distribution and 14 hours Mine train (another 18,000?)

Second tier allotment
Pirates of Caribbean - 20,000
Haunted Mansion - 30,240
Ranger Spin - 7500
Winnie the Pooh - 6700
Jungle Cruise - 15,000
Monsters Inc laugh floor - 10,000
Dumbo - 10,000
Flying carpets 7500
Barnstormer - 7500
Mickeys philarmagic -3,000
Totals. - 120,000

Enchanted Tales with Belle - 1000
Other meet and greets - 2500
Fireworks - 1000
Quick service meals - 1000
Total - 7,500

If 50,000 people are in MK and there is a 210,000 FP+ capacity.
50,000 e tickets limit one per person
100,000 minor attractions. Limit two per person.

That leaves 30,000 left over e tickets FP and 27,500 minor FP available. Once everyone is switched over to the FP+ system.

 bcrook 01-27-2013 05:57 PM

Disney Hollywood Studios

E-tickets 60% FP+ rate at 13 hours:
Toy Story Midway Mania!® - 12,500
The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror™ 14,000
Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster® Starring Aerosmith 16,000
Total - 42,500

Star Tours® – The Adventure Continues. 15000
The Great Movie Ride®. 23000
Indiana Jones™ Epic Stunt Spectacular! [holds 10,000 a day] 3000 FP+ seems like a stretch?
Lights, Motors, Action!® Extreme Stunt Show®. 1000
Muppet*Vision 3D. 2000
The American Idol® Experience. 2000
Disney Junior – Live on Stage!
Voyage of the Little Mermaid
Jedi training - ?

Fantasmic! 2000
Meet in greets 2000
QS meals 1000
Tol 55,000

Average attendance 26,000.

Surplus e tickets - 16000
Surplus other - 5,000

 TheRustyScupper 01-27-2013 06:01 PM

What are your best guesses for daily (15 hour day) ride capacity for

Pirates of the Caribbean
. . . a lot

Haunted Mansion
. . . a lesser lot

Peter Pan
. . . even a lesser lot

Toy Story Midway Mania
. . . a lot

Sorry, but that is my best guess.:confused3

 bcrook 01-27-2013 06:44 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheRustyScupper (Post 47326507) What are your best guesses for daily (15 hour day) ride capacity for Pirates of the Caribbean . . . a lot Haunted Mansion . . . a lesser lot Peter Pan . . . even a lesser lot Toy Story Midway Mania . . . a lot Sorry, but that is my best guess.:confused3
That plugs in nicely to the spreadsheet! :lmao:

 Rileygirl 02-04-2013 09:10 AM

I understand that there are a couple of 'Disney' terms that would help working out potential fast pass numbers for specific rides.

THRC- Theoretical Hourly Ride Capacity
OHRC - Operational Hourly Ride Capacity.

Disney really closely guards this information, and it is not readily or easily (or even perhaps accutrately) available to the general public. So, when I list a 'known' number for hourly visitors, I use that term a little loosely, because Disney is not publishing these numbers - they could be inaccurate. Just sayin.

With Disney Fan sites, and a few indiscrete lead hands, the miracle of google, some of the numbers are 'known'. Some are even 'calculated' by interested guests, (they clock the ride vehicle, and count the number of cars, and the number of guests per car) to come up with a number.

The actual maximum number of potential people that can ride an attraction will be the THRC x The number of hours the park is open.

I think the OHRC is the maximum reasonable number of people the attraction can handle when it considers potential loss of time due to - intrusions, delays, stoppages, restarts, ect.

I think when Disney calculates the number of fast pass available, they use the OHRC so OHRC x number of hours x a percentage (Is it 15? Is it 20? 25? 50?)

When you listed your numbers above barry, did you get them from doing searches on the internet? I dont want to double up the effort. And I want to say, a daily total is kinda useless for us - because we dont have the data on how long that day was. We need the OHRC to make a more accurate calculation, its a huge factor - especially when you figure in the limited number of hours AK is generally open for.

I also want to ask where the numbers came for calculating 'quick' service fast pass, and also parade and firework numbers.

I am especially interested in the quick service FP, because I think that ultimately, Disney wants to TIE the guests to certain locations at certain times of the day buy using a combination of 'meal' and attraction. This would effectively spread out the guests throughout the day, and make the most use of each and every counter service location, not just the popular ones. It would also spread out the guests meal time so there is not a glut at 12, but starts at 11 and goes til 1:30 say. KWIM? So, I think, there will be eventually 1/3 of all fp+ available will be for quick service meals, possibly. (feel free to shoot this horse if Disney has stated otherwise)

My for example on 'tethering of a guest'. Perhaps when you log on to do your FP+, you pick your tier 1 and teir 2 attraction. After you have picked those, Disney will offer you certain CS options that are tied to that area. So if you picked splash and haunted mansion, perhaps they would only show peco bills and columbia as your options - to keep you on your side of the park for a good portion of the day. Now, imagine if they could evenly spread out the 'tethers' throughout the park, so even the least utilized CS is busy. Its efficient on time, and would maybe maximize use of staff, lower waiting time for food, and potentially increase sales.

Ok, I digressed there. Back on track: how can we logically figure out what percentage of Fast passes are available on any given ride for any given hour? lets debate this: because I think you made some good points, but I dont think its 50%. I dont think this information is anywhere on the internet, and Disney wont be sayin, but maybe if we list our 'knowns' we can come to a hypothetical conclusion.

 YoHo 02-04-2013 09:20 AM

Haunted has the highest OHRC. I believe it's around 3600. Haven't looked at it in years.
Pirates is around 2500.
I believe splash is around 1200.
The rollercoasters even lower.

Also, counterintuitivly, Fastpass makes the parks feel fuller. Since without fast pass, thousands of people would be in queues off the streets and instead, they are now in the walkways virtually in line.

 lockedoutlogic 02-04-2013 09:28 AM

theoretically...your could calculate the capacity of the haunted mansion by figuring out the speed of the car and track length.

It's actually not to difficult of mathematical computation...Algebra II or below.

But they have said - I know for the haunted mansion -on some of the Discovery/Travel Channel Shows numbers specifically dealing with that ride.

They do keep some of the numbers "secret"...but not necessarily what i would call "closely guarded"

There's a way to find out to a certain level of confidence...but perhaps no "iron clad" numbers

 Rileygirl 02-04-2013 09:38 AM

It might be easiest if we just look at one attraction to figure out the possible calculation, then doing a general concept for all attractions (because I am not good at math for one, and also because I think every attraction has its own unique number, taking into consideration many things.

Lets start with splash mountain, because I caught some CM chatter from a lead hand regarding OHRC. Its 1800 per hour. Can they do more then 1800? absolutely, apparently they can frequently get to 1900 and sometimes even 2000, depending on the crew working load, unload, dispatch and something called the triple dispatch.

From the verbage this cast member used, I feel relatively confident that this is a pretty accurate average hourly number - this is a good 'known' to start with.

So OHRC is 1800 for splash.
Now, park hours - we will just use a hypothetical number: I would say typically during non peak and regular season, the Park is open from 9am to 7 pm. I want to use this number, for simplisticy sake, because it equals 10 hrs. Obviously, the busier the season, the longer the park hours, the more fast passes can be generated.

So, we have 2 fields we can fill in for our equasion. How can we figure out the percentage logically? (I dont know how to do this, but maybe by sounding things out, we can figure it out together as a group?)

Here are some things we know about fastpass - you have a 1 hr window of return time. They are spread out by what interval? Is it 10 minutes? or 20 minutes? Do you have any old FP kicking around? YKWIM? Return times could be 10:20, 10:40, or whatever. I am not sure if they increase by 10 minutes or 20 minutes or 5 minutes. Anyone know? Anyone have some old FPs kicking around?

Ok, Im off to see if I can find any old FPs.

 Rileygirl 02-04-2013 09:44 AM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by YoHo (Post 47401471) Haunted has the highest OHRC. I believe it's around 3600. Haven't looked at it in years. Pirates is around 2500. I believe splash is around 1200. The rollercoasters even lower. Also, counterintuitivly, Fastpass makes the parks feel fuller. Since without fast pass, thousands of people would be in queues off the streets and instead, they are now in the walkways virtually in line.
Good Point regarding crowds outside. Someone once told me that the general disney tourist that has figured out how to get a fast pass, still stands around the attraction waiting for their 'window' to open, ironically. This is really bad in frontierland where 2 of the big mountains live.

My research shows 3600 OHRC for Haunted mansion too. The problem is there are many attractions where there is not even a sniff of what the OHRC is.

 Rileygirl 02-04-2013 09:51 AM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by lockedoutlogic (Post 47401538) There's a way to find out to a certain level of confidence...but perhaps no "iron clad" numbers
Just wondering what way you mean. Internet? Thats what I am researching, however you may has some ideas or places to specifically look? That would be great if you could give me some direction. :cool1:

Sometimes when I post, I wonder if what I say can be totally misconstrued. There is no sarcasm intended - NONE AT ALL - Just hopeful optimism that you can direct me specifically somewhere to look. :)

 lockedoutlogic 02-04-2013 11:03 AM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Rileygirl (Post 47401759) Just wondering what way you mean. Internet? Thats what I am researching, however you may has some ideas or places to specifically look? That would be great if you could give me some direction. :cool1: Sometimes when I post, I wonder if what I say can be totally misconstrued. There is no sarcasm intended - NONE AT ALL - Just hopeful optimism that you can direct me specifically somewhere to look. :)
I'm saying that we can reasonable establish through a variety of measures...internet, print literature, cast member knowledge and experience, and disney history...what a fairly reasonable number for capacities will be.

But they aren't going to officially acknowledge it. Though it's pretty benign/harmless information.

 hopemax 02-04-2013 12:50 PM

Here's the stuff I have written down from years ago, from when I was trying to collect such stuff.

Of course, some of these attractions are no longer there, or the experience has changed so it might have affected capacity. Also, with things like Pirates and IASW, I think they can't load the boats as full as they could have in 1975, because of increased guest size.

Studios

Rock n' Roller Coaster: 1800 (based on 24 people per car, 48 second dispatch time)
Tower of Terror: 2038 (theoretical when it first opened, I don't know if the new drop profiles have changed the dispatch time)

Epcot

Once upon a time, Epcot used to give out fact sheets with this type of thing. There are THRC (Theoretical Hourly Ride Capacity) vs OHRC (Operational Hourly Ride Capacity)

Spaceship Earth: 2895 (2400 WDW Magic)
Living Seas: 2200
Horizons: 2784 (2660 WDW Magic)
World of Motion: 3240
Journey v 1: 2576 ( 2240 WDW Magic)
Image Works: 2800 (600-800 in area at one time)
Magic Eye Theater:1714 (1776 WDW Magic)

EO and Magic Journeys theater sat 600 vs. HISTAs 575, HISTA is 3 minutes longer than EO/MJ so they would have been able to get one or two more shows daily than HISTA does)

American Adventure: 2,048 per hour/1,024 per show (WDW Magic)
El Rio del Tiempo: 1,656 per hour, 16 per boat (WDW Magic)
Maelstrom: 1,920 per hour (WDW Magic)
The Land (WDW Magic)
2,736 per hour, 36-38 per boat (Living with the Land)
1,062 per hour, 428 per show (Circle of Life)
1,014 per hour, 250 per show (Food Rocks)

Magic Kingdom

Alien Encounter: 1,620 per hour, 162 per show (WDW Magic)
Carousel of Progress: 3,600 per hour, 226 per theater (WDW Magic)
Haunted Mansion: 3200
Pirates: 3,600 per hour, 15-18 per boat (WDW Magic)
Space Mountain: 900-1200 per hour; 2057-2500 if both sides open; 6 guests per rocket (WDW Magic)

 hopemax 02-04-2013 01:56 PM

My curiosity about this whole thing is, "Will the capacity of the most popular attractions end up determining daily park attendance?"

Would you go to a park, if you don't have Fastpasses reserved, making riding a top-tier attraction difficult? This is a question locals, and people that tend to make trips with short notice are going to have to answer.

I kind of hope that Fastpass+ ends up creating a crisis situation where the parks need to add capacity among E-ticket level rides if they want to increase attendance. Also, that they will have to increase the quality (ie perform proper maintenance and "refreshing") of middle-tier attractions, so if you go to a park and can't ride the headliner attractions, you will still think you had a satisfying day. Right now, I'm not sure people will be happy if their day consisted of the Treehouse, Tiki Room, Hall of Presidents, Peoplemover, the Carousel and Tom Sawyer's Island. Just guessing about what theoretically may be visitable by people "just showing up," without forethought. Like the limited choices that happens now with dining reservations. Or visiting a park on a Holiday - but with far fewer people physically in the park. If every day is like that, I can't see it as being a win for Disney. Especially, for the smaller parks. How many people show up at AK people know you can't get on Everest and the Safari without booking your FP months in advance? The Studios if ToT and RnRC are booked up? This is the one area that based on how Disney does things, I'm sure they are NOT properly accounting for human behavior.

On second thought, after spending \$1.5 billion on technology, I can't really see them dumping a ton of money on rides. It's always seemed to me that Fastpass, and now this, were being used as the cheaper option to deal with what has always been, a capacity problem. But I'll still hope this will force Disney's hand.

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