(maybe not) Tropical Storm Hermine - WET WDW Wed & Thurs

JimMIA

JimMIA

There's more to life than mice...
Joined
Feb 16, 2005
There is a tropical system in the area of Puerto Rico that bears watching. It is currently just a wave, but it's packing winds up to 55 MPH and once it attains surface level circulation it is likely to intensify rapidly.

Computer models project it moving into the Bahamas by Friday, and when it gets there conditions will be much better for intensification. It will probably become Tropical Storm Hermine soon, and could reach hurricane strength, especially when it slows down in the warm waters of the Bahamas. It's too early to really predict a path, but the current models indicate a landfall around or a little north of West Palm Beach.

A lot could happen to this rapidly moving system. If it trends a little further west, it could have significant interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and possibly eastern Cuba. Hitting the mountains could weaken the system, possibly enough to break it up.

Keep an eye on this system -- it might affect Vero and even WDW this weekend or early next week, and could definitely affect airline schedules.
 
Ugh. And I'm flying to West Palm Beach on Saturday to teach a class next week. This should be fun.
 
Earlier in the week I was watching Gaston and I couldn't stop the musical theatre of my mind…

To the tune of "Gaston"
Iiiiiiit's a storm called Gaston, Atl'ntic shores should be warned…
if the winds keep on building there'll be tourists alarmed!
Orlando's not usually worried, they're central with land mass to spare.
But weather news crews get more ratings... with headlines that read "Cataclysm, BEWAAAAARE!!"
iiiiiiit's a storm called Gaston, let's toast with a Saison
and throw a great shindig with party hats on!
As a hurricane he's not yet matriiiiiicuuuulated,
so he's a tropical staaaaahm, Gastaaawwwn!
 
I live here and am watching the storm closely. As of this morning the news is saying it's still too far away to tell as it is not predicted to develop into anything until it hits the waters near the Bahamas. I live on the west coast near Tampa and they are saying they think at this point it will be a large rain event but until Sat they won't really know. Here is the site I use locally to track.
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/
 
Tiggerette said:
Earlier in the week I was watching Gaston and I couldn't stop the musical theatre of my mind…

To the tune of "Gaston"
Iiiiiiit's a storm called Gaston, Atl'ntic shores should be warned…
if the winds keep on building there'll be tourists alarmed!
Orlando's not usually worried, they're central with land mass to spare.
But weather news crews get more ratings... with headlines that read "Cataclysm, BEWAAAAARE!!"
iiiiiiit's a storm called Gaston, let's toast with a Saison
and throw a great shindig with party hats on!
As a hurricane he's not yet matriiiiiicuuuulated,
so he's a tropical staaaaahm, Gastaaawwwn!
Click to expand...
Gaston was never going to be a threat to North America but the weather industry does like to hype stuff. I don't watch any of them.
 
Barbydoll8 said:
I live here and am watching the storm closely. As of this morning the news is saying it's still too far away to tell as it is not predicted to develop into anything until it hits the waters near the Bahamas. I live on the west coast near Tampa and they are saying they think at this point it will be a large rain event but until Sat they won't really know. Here is the site I use locally to track.
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/
Click to expand...
Yep. The system is still very disorganized. There were two centers of rotation, but no closed circulation -- which means they can't determine where the center is to form a starting point for their computer runs. If you don't know where the system is, you can't have much idea where it's going!

The system has tended to move more westward than expected, which has brought at least one of the centers directly over the Dominican Republic. That's a very good thing, because the DR is very mountainous. Most of the models continue to move the system more westward, over Haiti and then eastern Cuba -- also mountainous areas. And of course, having large parts of a system over land rather than warm water is also a good thing. So all of that, plus moderate wind shear, is going to delay organization and intensification. I'm hoping this thing will just blow itself up over the mountains, but I think it is too large and powerful to do that.

It will probably be another 24 hours before we have a good idea where this is going. Hopefully NOT to Louisiana!
 
Friday Noon update:
Everyone has just been waiting for this system to figure itself out, but we're still pretty much where we were a couple of days ago. Since Wednesday, the system has been poorly organized and without any closed circulation which would cause it to be designated as a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. There has been a general pattern of circulation (for a while there were two) which has tracked along the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and now is north of the eastern part of Cuba. All of those areas are quite mountainous so they have disrupted the wind pattern, making it impossible for the circulation to close.

In addition, there have been two other factors which have weakened the system -- dry air coming into the core of the system from the south and also strong wind shear. With many systems, any one -- and certainly any two -- of those three factors would have completely dissipated the system by now. But this is a large powerful system, and it has had enough strength to survive what would have killed most systems. To give you an idea how big this system is, it now extends from the southeastern Bahamas, across eastern Cuba, to west of Jamaica.

The best guess is that this system will move WNW, generally toward the Florida Keys. The further west it goes, the less those three negatives (mountains, dry air, and wind shear) will affect the system. By Sunday, it should show significant signs of organization and gradual strengthening. Once that happens, it will be much easier to predict the path of the storm.

The system should move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week where conditions for additional strengthening will be much better. Most of the computer model runs show it recurving to the NE and probably coming ashore from the Gulf somewhere north of Tampa -- but it is still way too early to trust those models yet.
 
In the Rumors of Light thread, Kate made a graphic that has Gaston's head crossing the sea. It's so funny! (Page 714, I think)

Folks back home are watching the storm (Invest 99L / Hermine?), and per usual process, casually getting stuff together "just in case." There's no real rush to it just yet, since it could go anywhere. Too early to bring in the lawn furniture, but never too early for a festive soiree! Here's hoping it doesn't affect folks too badly wherever it goes.
 
Sammie said:
Meaning that Charley, Frances and Jeanne were what?
Click to expand...
Major hurricanes are Cat 3 or better. Those may have been cat 3 at some point in their lifecycle, but by the time they hit the Orlando area were weakened and not classified as a major hurricane.

It's almost impossible to remain a cat 3 or better this far inland.

MG
 
We live in the Houston area and I still shutter every time I think about Tropical Storm Allison in 2009 where we had 20 inches of rain in our neighborhood in two days and some areas of Houston had 35 inches. I would not wish to have that kind of rain at WDW. And that could happen in Orlando and so could tornados from a hurricane coming ashore.

Besides didn't the remains of Hurricane Charley still have 106 mph winds when it hit Winter Park?
 
DenLo said:
We live in the Houston area and I still shutter every time I think about Tropical Storm Allison in 2009 where we had 20 inches of rain in our neighborhood in two days and some areas of Houston had 35 inches. I would not wish to have that kind of rain at WDW. And that could happen in Orlando and so could tornados from a hurricane coming ashore.

Besides didn't the remains of Hurricane Charley still have 106 mph winds when it hit Winter Park?
Click to expand...
We had 24 inches of rain in the Baton Rouge area in one day and it wasn't a tropical storm or hurricane or anything named. Just rain. And there is another storm hitting the coast of Texas and Louisiana now.
 
The most recent set of computer model runs looks like this system will pass through the Florida Keys on Sunday and move into the Gulf of Mexico.

From there, however, it looks like the system will "re-curve" to the NE as tropical systems often do, and come ashore around the Tampa Bay area or a little north of there on Wednesday (one model says Tuesday). The system is projected to cross the Florida peninsula toward the NE, which will mean a lot of rain at WDW on Wednesday and Thursday -- and possibly some travel disruption if the system intensifies much.

Keep an eye on this thing because at a minimum, it will be a big rainy day or two.
 
The system is Tropical Depression 9 right now, and is just north of the western tip of Cuba, moving west at 6 MPH. That slow speed indicates two things -- it is going to turn, and it is going to strengthen. The current forecast calls for it to strengthen to Tropical Storm intensity (39-74 MPH winds) and then turn toward the NE.

Most of the models call for landfall Thursday morning as a tropical storm, with landfall most likely between Tarpon Springs and Cedar Key on Florida's Gulf Coast north of Tampa. One reliable model predicts a landfall far north of there, around Apalachicola, and another predicts landfall around Pensacola. But most of the guidance centers around the Crystal River - Cedar Key area.

The further south the landfall, the more effect on WDW. I don't think it's a big concern -- probably just a rainy day -- but there could be some airline disruptions because of the need to repo aircraft ahead of the storm.

Obviously, a lot could happen in the next three days, so I'd keep an eye on it.
 
JimMIA said:
The system is Tropical Depression 9 right now, and is just north of the western tip of Cuba, moving west at 6 MPH. That slow speed indicates two things -- it is going to turn, and it is going to strengthen. The current forecast calls for it to strengthen to Tropical Storm intensity (39-74 MPH winds) and then turn toward the NE.

Most of the models call for landfall Thursday morning as a tropical storm, with landfall most likely between Tarpon Springs and Cedar Key on Florida's Gulf Coast north of Tampa. One reliable model predicts a landfall far north of there, around Apalachicola, and another predicts landfall around Pensacola. But most of the guidance centers around the Crystal River - Cedar Key area.

The further south the landfall, the more effect on WDW. I don't think it's a big concern -- probably just a rainy day -- but there could be some airline disruptions because of the need to repo aircraft ahead of the storm.

Obviously, a lot could happen in the next three days, so I'd keep an eye on it.
Click to expand...
Thanks, Jim..
I have always liked your updates. More so now that I live here!!

MG
 
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