Box Office Discussion

A few thoughts after reading the past day's worth of threads...

1. If everyone knows Mark Hamill will do more in Star Wars VIII, it should be a bigger success. You also have the amount of people who have seen Force Awakens on DVD and perhaps have warmed up to it. While some of you may have your opinions on Force Awakens, I personally think it's better than any of the prequels--which weren't bad movies, just not up to the standards of the original Trilogy.

2. Moana will do well, and I feel it's because kids these days seem drawn to really terrible movies. I was not impressed at all with the trailer. I thought it looked loud, silly, and repulsive. These were three adjectives I could also apply to Secret Life of Pets, which wound up being a huge hit (although I can also argue that it was very well-marketed). BFG, on the other hand, was a GREAT movie, and one I personally lauded for its production values and lack of utter stupidity...yet it tanked. Pete's Dragon seems to be the same way. (I'd see it now but movie tickets are so darn expensive in Pittsburgh where all the theaters are first-run...it's actually cheaper for me to drive to Youngstown and see them at the second-run theater for $3 each).

3. The most impressive thing about Avatar, to me, is that after such a great theatrical run, it's a movie nobody ever talks about. A lot of my friends are movie buffs, and in the past three years, I think Avatar may have come up once. Everyone loved it in 2009, but today? Everyone I know is more apt to talk about random comedies from the 80s or 90s, classic Disney movies, whatever is current, or storied franchises like Star Wars, Jurassic Park, James Bond, etc. I actually am friends with a LOT of people who I could see liking Avatar, yet it NEVER comes up. Maybe the new park will revive it, but even among my buddies who like Disney World, nobody talks about it--they're all more interested in the Star Wars and Toy Story lands.

4. There has been a lot of Marvel talk in the other threads, particularly about GoTG. Amazingly, even with a bunch of Marvel nerds in my friend circle, GoTG barely gets brought up--and I've been with some of these guys to Marvel movies on opening day (GoTG wasn't one of them). I know maybe two people who saw GoTG. Yes, it grossed a lot of money, but how much do you want to bet some of it was because nothing else looked remotely good at the time?

I looked up the time period in which it was released. GoTG came out on August 1, 2014. There was a Planet of the Apes movie which came out a few weeks earlier which quickly fell from its spot, losing to a couple of no-namers within that time span. The number two movie during GoTG's first week was Lucy, which made $76K LESS than GoTG that weekend. I don't even remember that movie existing, yet alone seeing it. Planet of the Apes (which wasn't all that good IMO) fell pretty hard. Basically, there was no competition that weekend.

The following weekend? GoTG makes about half as much and loses to Ninja Turtles. The following weekend, everything falls off a cliff but TMNT and GoTG are still #1 and #2. They flip flop positions the next weekend and make even less money--and that trend continues for two more weekends. Long story short, Summer 2014 was a dud for movies and GoTG was arguably one of the better ones of the lot. It only has impressive numbers because it had no competition.

Put GoTG in the same release time in another year and it doesn't stand a chance if the movies coming out were good. Take 1996 for example. You had A Time to Kill and Independence Day vying for #1 and #2, with the latter already out for a while. Matilda had come out and did well for the younger set. Hunchback of Notre Dame was still in theaters. Nutty Professor was still pulling in some cash. I'd rate all five as decent to well above average movies, something you just didn't have in 2014.

Credit due where due...www.boxofficemojo.com is where I found these figures :)
 
A few thoughts after reading the past day's worth of threads...

1. If everyone knows Mark Hamill will do more in Star Wars VIII, it should be a bigger success. You also have the amount of people who have seen Force Awakens on DVD and perhaps have warmed up to it. While some of you may have your opinions on Force Awakens, I personally think it's better than any of the prequels--which weren't bad movies, just not up to the standards of the original Trilogy.

2. Moana will do well, and I feel it's because kids these days seem drawn to really terrible movies. I was not impressed at all with the trailer. I thought it looked loud, silly, and repulsive. These were three adjectives I could also apply to Secret Life of Pets, which wound up being a huge hit (although I can also argue that it was very well-marketed). BFG, on the other hand, was a GREAT movie, and one I personally lauded for its production values and lack of utter stupidity...yet it tanked. Pete's Dragon seems to be the same way. (I'd see it now but movie tickets are so darn expensive in Pittsburgh where all the theaters are first-run...it's actually cheaper for me to drive to Youngstown and see them at the second-run theater for $3 each).

3. The most impressive thing about Avatar, to me, is that after such a great theatrical run, it's a movie nobody ever talks about. A lot of my friends are movie buffs, and in the past three years, I think Avatar may have come up once. Everyone loved it in 2009, but today? Everyone I know is more apt to talk about random comedies from the 80s or 90s, classic Disney movies, whatever is current, or storied franchises like Star Wars, Jurassic Park, James Bond, etc. I actually am friends with a LOT of people who I could see liking Avatar, yet it NEVER comes up. Maybe the new park will revive it, but even among my buddies who like Disney World, nobody talks about it--they're all more interested in the Star Wars and Toy Story lands.

4. There has been a lot of Marvel talk in the other threads, particularly about GoTG. Amazingly, even with a bunch of Marvel nerds in my friend circle, GoTG barely gets brought up--and I've been with some of these guys to Marvel movies on opening day (GoTG wasn't one of them). I know maybe two people who saw GoTG. Yes, it grossed a lot of money, but how much do you want to bet some of it was because nothing else looked remotely good at the time?

I looked up the time period in which it was released. GoTG came out on August 1, 2014. There was a Planet of the Apes movie which came out a few weeks earlier which quickly fell from its spot, losing to a couple of no-namers within that time span. The number two movie during GoTG's first week was Lucy, which made $76K LESS than GoTG that weekend. I don't even remember that movie existing, yet alone seeing it. Planet of the Apes (which wasn't all that good IMO) fell pretty hard. Basically, there was no competition that weekend.

The following weekend? GoTG makes about half as much and loses to Ninja Turtles. The following weekend, everything falls off a cliff but TMNT and GoTG are still #1 and #2. They flip flop positions the next weekend and make even less money--and that trend continues for two more weekends. Long story short, Summer 2014 was a dud for movies and GoTG was arguably one of the better ones of the lot. It only has impressive numbers because it had no competition.

Put GoTG in the same release time in another year and it doesn't stand a chance if the movies coming out were good. Take 1996 for example. You had A Time to Kill and Independence Day vying for #1 and #2, with the latter already out for a while. Matilda had come out and did well for the younger set. Hunchback of Notre Dame was still in theaters. Nutty Professor was still pulling in some cash. I'd rate all five as decent to well above average movies, something you just didn't have in 2014.

Credit due where due...www.boxofficemojo.com is where I found these figures :)
August is actually known for less numbers. GotG did great for an August release. People do not attend the movies as much in August. Between schools starting, last minute vacations and high school sports starting it just doesn't draw the same numbers. I will argue that August 2016 movies are comparable to those of 2014. Your top movie is another comic book movie, you have an R rated movie that I don't think will have much of a place in history (2 years from now someone will be saying how Suicide Squad beat a movie nobody remembers called Sausage party...and then someone else will say they liked that movie....and so on).

I thought GotG was a good movie, but not great. But I do disagree that people don't talk about that movie. A lot of people did feel it was a good change up from the typical comic book movie. That's why it might have some lasting power, we will see.

As far as Pandora (Avatar)...people are going to have their preferences. But I know a lot of people very excited for Pandora. Many see Star Wars so far in the future (some just don't believe it will be done in the time insiders are predicting) so Pandora is the next big thing. People are seeing these pictures, and it is drawing people in. There will be forever an argument if the movie actually draws people in, but the land will. It will be popular. I just hope Star Wars land will be as incredible. And sure, you would think that is a no brainer. Problem is that they have let Pandora go so far over budget creating this massive land, Star Wars will be given a lot of money, but my bet they will not let it go as far overbudget. There is a reason Pandora is over budget...what they are creating is something special.
 
Because people love Star Wars...but they still prefer to see Luke skywalker with a lightsaber...that's a core draw.

I think Han Solo is gonna be a flop...I don't trust kasdan(s) on this one.

I agree with a lot of this, Logic - but no way "Han Solo" flops. Luke with a lightsaber is Star Wars, but so is the Death Star. So is Darth Vader (the #2 movie villain of all time. Second only to the Wicked Witch of the West). The Death Star, and to a lesser extent Vader, are the stars of Rogue One. It will do very well. I think north of $1B. "Han Solo" won't have the Death Star or Vader going for it (we assume), so it will probably take a step back. ...but flop? Nooooo. It will have Jabba the Hutt, Chewbacca and Lando Calrissian losing the freakin' Millennium Falcon in a poker game. THAT'S a must see for any Star Wars fan. :)
 
I agree with a lot of this, Logic - but no way "Han Solo" flops. Luke with a lightsaber is Star Wars, but so is the Death Star. So is Darth Vader (the #2 movie villain of all time. Second only to the Wicked Witch of the West). The Death Star, and to a lesser extent Vader, are the stars of Rogue One. It will do very well. I think north of $1B. "Han Solo" won't have the Death Star or Vader going for it (we assume), so it will probably take a step back. ...but flop? Nooooo. It will have Jabba the Hutt, Chewbacca and Lando Calrissian losing the freakin' Millennium Falcon in a poker game. THAT'S a must see for any Star Wars fan. :)

"Flop" wasn't the right word...it will be popular and make money...

...I think it will be bad...trying to reimagine/do back story on an alltime iconic character...and will be looked upon unfavorably as time goes on.

Disney does tend to stick it's nose where it doesn't really need to go - like Mary poppins 2 - and this might be a case.
 


"Flop" wasn't the right word...it will be popular and make money...

...I think it will be bad...trying to reimagine/do back story on an alltime iconic character...and will be looked upon unfavorably as time goes on.

Disney does tend to stick it's nose where it doesn't really need to go - like Mary poppins 2 - and this might be a case.

Well, we can all agree on that one. :) ...but that's a Hollywood disease and certainly not exclusive to Disney. I posted a list of Disney's and their affiliates highest grossing films a week or so ago. You can look at that list and almost see where the Mouse is going next. "Hey, this made money last time - let's try it again!" Yeah, it can be boring for us sometime, but it's a strategy that works. After all, no one likes to lose money.
 
Slackers... you let this slide to page 2. :)

Watching our favorite little fish keep swimming, but the cash flow seems to be stalling.

#1 in UK Box Office, but with only 1.5Million. Japan only added around 1Million as well. So it looks like a less than $5Million week for Dory - keep it in the $935Million range... likely less than $5 Million left in the tank until Germany.

Greece, Italy, Turkey, Austria, and Germany need to contribute at least $50 Million to get to $1Billion. There is also the chance of a marketing push if they get above $990 Million in some of the older markets. The risk to these next 5 countries though is DVD release... its likely to be announced before or right after release for a November date. That has the potential to lower ticket draw in these countries.

I still have Dory at an "unlikely" for $1 Billion. Not impossible, but unlikely.
 


Slackers... you let this slide to page 2. :)

Watching our favorite little fish keep swimming, but the cash flow seems to be stalling.

#1 in UK Box Office, but with only 1.5Million. Japan only added around 1Million as well. So it looks like a less than $5Million week for Dory - keep it in the $935Million range... likely less than $5 Million left in the tank until Germany.

Greece, Italy, Turkey, Austria, and Germany need to contribute at least $50 Million to get to $1Billion. There is also the chance of a marketing push if they get above $990 Million in some of the older markets. The risk to these next 5 countries though is DVD release... its likely to be announced before or right after release for a November date. That has the potential to lower ticket draw in these countries.

I still have Dory at an "unlikely" for $1 Billion. Not impossible, but unlikely.
I think it is still way too early to tell. My projections seem to show Dory is hitting their marks still. It was number 1 in 5 markets this weekend, making 6.3 million in those markets for the weekend. It made 9 million from the UK and Japan for the week, which means it is still making money, and will probably make over 5 million this week as well from just those two countries, and has between 12 and 15 million left in those countries based on its trend. With schools opening all movies will struggle in US, including Dory, so it looks more like only another 5 million from the US. That's now 17 to 20 million from 3 countries. The countries that just opened should result in at least 5 million more before their runs are done, now giving you 22 to 25 million. With it at nearly 931 million, that will mean it need around 45-47 million from the remaining 5 markets including Germany and Italy (which is well less than what Nemo and Zootopia made in those countries) not to mention the 25 other markets that it is still playing in that made 4.65 million last week. So they are still picking up profits that will put a dent in those numbers as well.

Jungle book I am a little more concerned about now. It made 5.3 million in Japan last week, which is ok, but it leaves it still with a lot of work to get to $1b. It will get very little help from anywhere else, and I just don't think it has 39 million left in Japan. But maybe this is a sign of what will happen to Dory in it's late releases for Germany and Italy...
 
I'm going to relent and point back to my earlier post... if Disney feels like they have a shot and wants to hit $1 Billion for internal/business reasons they could do some marketing/play some games... well I just found this:

http://www.slashfilm.com/finding-dory-re-release-and-clip/

A 2,900 screen re-release... Probably filling some gaps that Pete's left. At 2,900 screens that's almost as large as the original release. They are going to try and make it to $1 Billion... they must feel its close enough that they can kick it over the finish line.
 
I'm curious to watch this "re-release".

Dory is, as of 9/1, in 345 screens nationwide with a take of $233 per for $80,000. If they are releasing to 2,900 screens (assuming total, not incremental) - and maintain the low $233 per, that would become $675,000 for 4 days... roughly $2.5Million. But, if they get a marketing bump and increase the per theater take to a more reasonable $1,500 - thats $4.35 Million per day. It'll be interesting to see what they actually accomplish with this re-release.
 
I'm curious to watch this "re-release".

Dory is, as of 9/1, in 345 screens nationwide with a take of $233 per for $80,000. If they are releasing to 2,900 screens (assuming total, not incremental) - and maintain the low $233 per, that would become $675,000 for 4 days... roughly $2.5Million. But, if they get a marketing bump and increase the per theater take to a more reasonable $1,500 - thats $4.35 Million per day. It'll be interesting to see what they actually accomplish with this re-release.

Two consecutive wide release bombs...and 3 outta the last four...

I Wish they would save the marketing dollars on dory trying to reach an arbitrary number and concentrate on moana...which I don't think is gonna do well either.
 
Anyone see Kubo? Saw it last weekend and really enjoyed it. I haven't paid attention to the numbers, but it deserves to do well. However, it's not your typical kids animated movie. We really liked Pete's Dragon too. I have no interest in seeing most of the live action remakes though. By fluke, we saw Malificient on the Fantasy, and I really liked it. I don't mind that they changed the story around. The others just sound boring though. However, being a huge Mary Poppins fan, I will have to see that.
 
Two consecutive wide release bombs...and 3 outta the last four...

I Wish they would save the marketing dollars on dory trying to reach an arbitrary number and concentrate on moana...which I don't think is gonna do well either.

Disney has definitely become feast or famine. The benefit is when you have big successes you can take more risks. The problems is even their risks seem safe.
 
I feel bad but apart from Civil War. Jungle Book and Rogue One, I've not bothered with seeing any other Disney film. I'm sure Dory, Petes dragon and BFG are all decent Disney flicks that I'll get on Bluray, it not enough to go and see at the cinema
 
I feel bad but apart from Civil War. Jungle Book and Rogue One, I've not bothered with seeing any other Disney film. I'm sure Dory, Petes dragon and BFG are all decent Disney flicks that I'll get on Bluray, it not enough to go and see at the cinema
Interesting you say that abut Finding Dory. I loved seeing that in the theater.
 
I'm curious to watch this "re-release".

Dory is, as of 9/1, in 345 screens nationwide with a take of $233 per for $80,000. If they are releasing to 2,900 screens (assuming total, not incremental) - and maintain the low $233 per, that would become $675,000 for 4 days... roughly $2.5Million. But, if they get a marketing bump and increase the per theater take to a more reasonable $1,500 - thats $4.35 Million per day. It'll be interesting to see what they actually accomplish with this re-release.

Dory saw a very modest bump and is coming in at the lower end - $2.5 Million. 3 weeks to go until Germany release. Sitting at roughly $945 Million.
Pete's is having a slow burn with a $8.5 Million estimated weekend... but still widely considered a flop.
 
Dory saw a very modest bump and is coming in at the lower end - $2.5 Million. 3 weeks to go until Germany release. Sitting at roughly $945 Million.
Pete's is having a slow burn with a $8.5 Million estimated weekend... but still widely considered a flop.
Unfortunate for Pete's dragon
 
Seriously though, why aren't they promoting Moana? We've barely seen any footage from that movie and there's very little to no hype for it outside of the Disney fandom. You'd think that after the huge success WDAS has had with their recent releases they'd try to keep their momentum going.
 
Pete's Dragon only had a budget of 65 million, so compared to the second Alice in Wonderland and BFG it is a moderate success.

Pete needed to make north of $300 million internationally to be considered successful.

It has a staggered release schedule taking it all the way to Dec 24 in Japan, but $150 million total seems to be a stretch at this point.

$65 million doesn't include marketing and the theater take doesn't include the splits. So double the $65 as Disney did a fairly modest marketing campaign (I think Disney includes post production in budget otherwise it could be higher) and take at least 1/4-1/3 away from receipts and you quickly get to $200 to even talk about breaking even and $300 to be really considered successful.
 

GET A DISNEY VACATION QUOTE

Dreams Unlimited Travel is committed to providing you with the very best vacation planning experience possible. Our Vacation Planners are experts and will share their honest advice to help you have a magical vacation.

Let us help you with your next Disney Vacation!











facebook twitter
Top