New AP to include Photo Downloads?

Spacedog1975 · Oct 6, 2015

Spoony Bard said:
I think this is the largest step to date (although not the first step) in Disney's attempt to cull out the locals... as evidenced by the fact that the prices for the Disneyland annual pass have skyrocketed exponentially.

If you consider the park attractions and tickets to be loss-leaders, then this makes perfect sense. Most locals don't drop money into the properties in any similar capacity to non-locals. Locals aren't staying on property, filling rooms - they're not eating at the restaurants, and they're probably certainly not buying much merchandise. In other words, locals consume low-margin goods and services, while those coming on vacation are consuming the high-margin goods and services.

At some point, I wonder if Disney will just do away with the concept of annual passes altogether, or will only make them available to DVC members.

Speaking of DVC - I've often thought that it would be a great idea for Disney to give away a single free annual pass to its NEW DVC members - one pass for every 100 points purchased, and that pass would stay valid for the length of the DVC contract. It would certainly offer a premium above what DVC resellers are currently offering.

In any event, I think the intention here is pretty clear - to weed out those who don't consume high profit margin goods and services... and locals just don't do that. From an economics standpoint, Disney probably isn't making much, if any, profit on them, with the extra staffing that they need to employ. If Disney is indeed trying to provide their "high value" guests with a better experience, weeding out the locals will make the parks less crowded, and will provide a better overall experience to the "high value" guests.

This is probably accurate to an end. Though I think you'll have fewer visitors engaging in the AP program and those that remain with it may feel compelled to put in more park time to maximize their value.

Spoony Bard · Oct 6, 2015

The parks reaching capacity, and being overcrowded, is a very real condition, and I think that Disney realizes this.

There are a couple of different ways to address the problem:
1. Build\add more capacity (more parks) - this just isn't going to happen

2. Overall reduction in limit capacity

3. Reduce the population of low-profit producing guests with high-profit producing ones

Of course, the most straightforward approach would be to just eliminate the annual passes altogether; I don't think that Disney would see, over a 5-10 year period, a substantial (if any) reduction in overall park traffic, but their "profit margin per guest day" would no doubt increase. I do think they would take a PR hit for this, however, and the opportunity cost of this kind of PR hit would outweigh any opportunity benefit from instituting these changes in one fell swoop. It's better (for them) to create these artificial barriers to entry (for passholders) over the long haul.

wareagle57 · Oct 6, 2015

Spoony Bard said:
The parks reaching capacity, and being overcrowded, is a very real condition, and I think that Disney realizes this.

There are a couple of different ways to address the problem:
1. Build\add more capacity (more parks) - this just isn't going to happen

2. Overall reduction in limit capacity

3. Reduce the population of low-profit producing guests with high-profit producing ones

Of course, the most straightforward approach would be to just eliminate the annual passes altogether; I don't think that Disney would see, over a 5-10 year period, a substantial (if any) reduction in overall park traffic, but their "profit margin per guest day" would no doubt increase. I do think they would take a PR hit for this, however, and the opportunity cost of this kind of PR hit would outweigh any opportunity benefit from instituting these changes in one fell swoop. It's better (for them) to create these artificial barriers to entry (for passholders) over the long haul.

Removing the annual pass altogether would be a PR nightmare and would do way more harm than good for Disney. Yes, an AP holder in the park is spending less money per day than a first time guest. But they also have already spent more money on Disney than that first time guest ever will, and they will continue to do so. Those are the people who are going to bring their kids and grandkids to Disney for years and years. They may not spend as much as a first time guest every year, but they will some years. If Disney suddenly told the people who love it so much that they come multiple times a year, or possibly even moved to Florida specifically to go all the time "Sorry, if you want to come every day, it will cost your $36,000 a year instead of 500" they would lose a lot of their most loyal customers forever. There would be people who loved Disney for years who now despise them.

Spoony Bard · Oct 6, 2015

wareagle57 said:
Removing the annual pass altogether would be a PR nightmare and would do way more harm than good for Disney. Yes, an AP holder in the park is spending less money per day than a first time guest. But they also have already spent more money on Disney than that first time guest ever will, and they will continue to do so. Those are the people who are going to bring their kids and grandkids to Disney for years and years. They may not spend as much as a first time guest every year, but they will some years. If Disney suddenly told the people who love it so much that they come multiple times a year, or possibly even moved to Florida specifically to go all the time "Sorry, if you want to come every day, it will cost your $36,000 a year instead of 500" they would lose a lot of their most loyal customers forever. There would be people who loved Disney for years who now despise them.

Money that guests have already spent has no future value for Disney. Similar, in the sports world, you don't reward a player with a big contract because of his past performance - you pay him based on the value that you think he has left.

And, I'm not sure that I agree that annual passholders will continue to spend large sums of money. I'm an non-local annual passholder (have been for years now), but I'm not someone that Disney would consider a high-value or highly-profitable consumer. My family almost always stays off site, and we bring our snacks in with us. We don't buy many souvenirs at all - we consume very little once we are in the parks. We go often, because of the large initial capital investment in the annual passes (6 of them), but that represents the bulk of our purchase with Disney.

This latest round of increases, however, has had what I believe is Disney's intended effect - we won't be purchasing annual passes any longer. We'll still make a trip every two years or so, but we won't be down there 3 or 4 times a year. Disney might make somewhat less revenue from us based on the lack of our annual pass purchase, but they'll more than recoup that with the lesser expense they'll have.

Also, I agree that just eliminating the annual passes would be a PR nightmare for Disney (especially Disneyland)... so, they'll slowly remove any value that they have so that they have no more fiscal attraction. The effect remains the same -

middlechild · Oct 7, 2015

TWDC has access to entrance metrics. These counts would show who is showing up, and when. Chances are very good that AP holders tend to avoid the busiest day, is my guess. There are enough AP holders here, how many of you intend to go to a park on Dec 31? Or Thanksgiving day? The flexibility of the pass says spread it out, go on an empty day instead to enjoy the rides, environment, etc. What say you, AP holders? Do you actually go on the busiest days?

cranbiz · Oct 7, 2015

When I lived in FL and had an AP, I avoided the parks like a plague on busy days. The only busy day I ever went was NYE and that was just to say I opened the New Year in a Disney Park. That will never happen again.

Same held true when I worked there, absolutely stayed away during busy times. Showed up only to work, never as a guest.

circus4u · Oct 7, 2015

Same here. When we lived in Tampa, we had the annual pass the first year. Screwed up and went on July 4. The following years, we bought the season passes. Avoided summer months like the plague. Living in AZ now, we bought an annual pass 2013-2014. Made five trips that year, but always avoided holidays and summer. Did not renew the pass because of all the construction in all the parks. We probably won't make anymore trips to WDW until mid to late 2016 when the in process construction is pretty much completed.

Cynister · Oct 7, 2015

Going back to the OP subject, what seems to be unclear with the photo pass addition to APs is whether or not it is the equivalent of Memory Maker. In another thread, someone referenced a wdw blog post that seemed to say it is not the same as the animated Magic shots wouldn't be included. Not sure if this is accurate & there doesn't seem to be a clear answer yet.

Josh Hendy · Oct 7, 2015

Spoony Bard said:
The parks reaching capacity, and being overcrowded, is a very real condition, and I think that Disney realizes this.

I think you mean THE PARK is overcrowded. One out of three.

Call it whatever you want, but this isn't Disney's prudent reaction to the over-popularity (and therefore under-pricing) of their "parks".

Eoghann · Oct 7, 2015

Josh Hendy said:
I think you mean THE PARK is overcrowded. One out of three.

Call it whatever you want, but this isn't Disney's prudent reaction to the over-popularity (and therefore under-pricing) of their "parks".

There are certainly many different ways Disney could choose to address the capacity issue. This just happens to be a way that makes them a lot of money without requiring much in the way of additional expense on their behalf.

Spoony Bard · Oct 7, 2015

Eoghann said:
There are certainly many different ways Disney could choose to address the capacity issue. This just happens to be a way that makes them a lot of money without requiring much in the way of additional expense on their behalf.

Correct - I don't even think that this really has to do with Disney wishing to "make more money" off of Annual Passholders... this is a way to weed the passholders out altogether.

Let's assume that Disney measures a metric such as "dollars per guest park day" - for a family of four, who drops $5000 for a 7 day vacation (including park admission, food, lodging, and souvenirs), the average dollar spent by each guest, per day, is around $178.
Now, consider an annual passholder (especially a local) who spends $600 per year for his admission, and probably nothing on lodging (or stays offsite), very little on food, and nothing on souvenirs. Let's say that person visits the parks 15 days per year. That's $40 per guest day for park admission, and probably very little on food and ancillaries.

You can understand where Disney would look at this metric and say "these are not highly profitable guests" -

I don't like it - not by a long shot, but I understand that, from a corporate profitability standpoint, they would look to reduce the number of guest-days with lower margins, and increase them with guests fitting the profile of of the former scenario.

Eoghann · Oct 7, 2015

Spoony Bard said:
I don't like it - not by a long shot, but I understand that, from a corporate profitability standpoint, they would look to reduce the number of guest-days with lower margins, and increase them with guests fitting the profile of of the former scenario.

Disney are pulling their financial levers. It's not a crime, though it is greedy of them.

What baffles me though is the push back I see on here and elsewhere when people talk about pulling their own financial levers (go less frequently, skip table service etc.) As soon as someone mentions doing that we get people posting about how "long waits should be expected at theme parks" or how "TIW still works for them because they spend $1,500 on food anyway" (I'm exaggerating slightly for effect).

Disney only cares about people in aggregate so I don't waste my time on boycotts or stuff like that, but I'm also not going to get sucked into the emotional con game of how it's all about "the experience". Going to Disney World is a financial transaction like any other. Measure it, value it and then spend accordingly.

Spoony Bard · Oct 7, 2015

Eoghann said:
Disney only cares about people in aggregate so I don't waste my time on boycotts or stuff like that, but I'm also not going to get sucked into the emotional con game of how it's all about "the experience". Going to Disney World is a financial transaction like any other. Measure it, value it and then spend accordingly.

Exactly - they're a for-profit corporation, and as such, Disney has a responsibility to its shareholders. I wish that wasn't the case, but it is - and I agree, vacationing and spending money at the parks, and with Disney as a whole, should be treated as a financial transaction like anything else.

Spacedog1975 · Oct 7, 2015

The more effective way to cut down on AP attendance would be to cap APs at a certain number. Grandfather existing APs as long as they consistently renew, but only offer a set number of net new APs in any given year. This would drive demand. They'd likely sell out their allotment within hours of the announcement.

Josh Hendy · Oct 7, 2015

This is as if Toyota said, gee, we make a lot more profit on every Lexus we sell, don't we? And we're the world's most popular carmaker? So let's just raise the prices on our compact and budget vehicles until we make as much on them as a Lexus.

Nissan and Honda can bite me, we're Toyota, the pixie dust of cars!

usd2bmd · Oct 7, 2015

lockedoutlogic said:
Jeez...you ARE buying it.

Nevermind...I'm gonna sit in the woods by myself for awhile

"Ooohm...ooohm...ooohm"

This. The best thing I read today.

Spoony Bard · Oct 7, 2015

Spacedog1975 said:
The more effective way to cut down on AP attendance would be to cap APs at a certain number. Grandfather existing APs as long as they consistently renew, but only offer a set number of net new APs in any given year. This would drive demand. They'd likely sell out their allotment within hours of the announcement.

I think this would cause too large of a PR hit.

Price increases, on the other hand, are easier to justify, especially over the long term.

I wouldn't be so insistent on my theory holding as much weight if it weren't for the fact that the price of the Disneyland APs skyrocketed exponentially. Those parks, more than any other, have a very large percentage of locals who hold annual passes. Disney isn't able to derive nearly as much revenue per park guest day out of those properties as they do out of WDW.

Self-Rescuing Princess · Oct 7, 2015

I agree. I think sooner or later, in my opinion before Star wars opens, they will close APs to all new purchases. Anyone who has theirs and continually ups will be okay. A waiting list will be made. And the AP's will be raised again. New blackout days added.

Right now my family has a premier, we will do the signature, and we always find it a value, others now don't.

As for PR, bad PR comes and goes, but if it all sells out it would be a wash in their minds. They might even freeze tickets sales for single days for a few years and add a few more discounts the more days you buy...

New AP to include Photo Downloads?

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