Will resale prices drop a little at year end?

Disneymooner07 · Sep 3, 2015

We are planning to buy resale at BCV, but prices are sky high right now! Based on past years, does it seem likely the market will slow down a little in December or January? Is this a blip that resale prices went up right now or is this normal that resale prices rise in the summer?

pangyal · Sep 3, 2015

I think that there is always a little dip around January, after Christmas bills and as MFs come due. However, I'm not guaranteeing anything this year, as the prices are getting crazy! I would imagine that they will come down a bit though around MF time.

CarolMN · Sep 3, 2015

I wouldn't count on it. BCV remains very popular and there aren't / haven't been all that many BCV contracts for sale. Until demand subsides (or until we get a lot closer to 2042), I don't see BCV resale prices decreasing much at all - especially since DVD keeps raising direct prices. JMHO. YMMV.

disneynutz · Sep 3, 2015

Any increase in the number of contracts listed for sale as a result of dues being due is pretty small and the benefit negligible.

:earsboy:

Bill

heynowirv · Sep 3, 2015

This is as crazy as I've seen i the 10 years i've been looking.OMG !!! I loved the recession days for resale.

pmaurer74 · Sep 3, 2015

I think with the added stuff at HS the EPCOT DVCs will likely rise or continue to be high especially when it is closer to the timeframe of when everything will be done. I imagine there will likely be another EPCOT dvc in the works by then? Yacht Club or BCV expansion or BWV expansion? thoughts anyone?

gandyeye · Sep 3, 2015

pmaurer74 said:
I think with the added stuff at HS the EPCOT DVCs will likely rise or continue to be high especially when it is closer to the timeframe of when everything will be done. I imagine there will likely be another EPCOT dvc in the works by then? Yacht Club or BCV expansion or BWV expansion? thoughts anyone?

I've heard rumors that some rooms at the Yacht Club will be converted to DVC. I think they could convert half the resort and sell out within a month

pmaurer74 · Sep 4, 2015

gandyeye said:
I've heard rumors that some rooms at the Yacht Club will be converted to DVC. I think they could convert half the resort and sell out within a month

Do you think that Yacht Club would likely sell at $165 per point when BCV is at $115 per point? I would hope to at least see a new building pr something to justify the cost. Yacht Club is the last place on my list that I have not stayed at yet. I would love to stay there some day. I really liked BC!

Dean · Sep 4, 2015

pmaurer74 said:
Do you think that Yacht Club would likely sell at $165 per point when BCV is at $115 per point? I would hope to at least see a new building pr something to justify the cost. Yacht Club is the last place on my list that I have not stayed at yet. I would love to stay there some day. I really liked BC!

Likely but at a different RTU plus it would likely elevate BCV prices a little further.

I think BCV is over price but if I wanted to buy there I would not wait even if it worked within my visit plans because it's fairly difficult to find and I feel those few months have value as well.

MountainMouse · Sep 4, 2015

Disneymooner07 said:
We are planning to buy resale at BCV, but prices are sky high right now! Based on past years, does it seem likely the market will slow down a little in December or January? Is this a blip that resale prices went up right now or is this normal that resale prices rise in the summer?

I bought last October/November and I continued to watch the prices afterward and they did not drop. They held steady and then in the late winter/spring began to rise. I personally think there is a little bit of a bubble here and you might see a small drop in the next 6 months but not enough to warrant waiting if you find the right contract.

gandyeye · Sep 4, 2015

pmaurer74 said:
Do you think that Yacht Club would likely sell at $165 per point when BCV is at $115 per point? I would hope to at least see a new building pr something to justify the cost. Yacht Club is the last place on my list that I have not stayed at yet. I would love to stay there some day. I really liked BC!

I certainly think it would sell out at $165. DVC has no other epcot resort to sell. Just look at how quickly BCV and BWV sell at resale, when they are available. And when the new Studios lands are completed in 2021 or so, it well be a really easy sell for DVC......even at $185. Poly is languishing in sales because there are so many new units built in that area in the last 6 years. Most people that wanted to buy DVC at MK have probably already done so. There has been nothing new at epcot in many years, therefore, I think it would be an easy sell.

suebeelin · Sep 4, 2015

I bought my recent resale at the end of last year (closed in February). I was actually at DW (first two weeks of December!), and had my offer accepted.

And yes, it was below market--maybe between $5-10? However, that being said, maybe I was lucky.

My first contract was during the recession, during the spring. I know if I had waited only a few more months-- even another year-- I could have paid much less. So, I do think prices drop during the holidays. But that's just my personal opinion.

This current market is kinda crazy. I personally would not buy at these prices, but then again I'm also done buying. No more Addonitis for me.

GOOFY D · Oct 2, 2015

suebeelin said:
I bought my recent resale at the end of last year (closed in February). I was actually at DW (first two weeks of December!), and had my offer accepted.

And yes, it was below market--maybe between $5-10? However, that being said, maybe I was lucky.

My first contract was during the recession, during the spring. I know if I had waited only a few more months-- even another year-- I could have paid much less. So, I do think prices drop during the holidays. But that's just my personal opinion.

This current market is kinda crazy. I personally would not buy at these prices, but then again I'm also done buying. No more Addonitis for me.

Yeah, I cannot believe these prices. I have to imagine that there will come a point when the market will not support the crazy resale prices we are currently seeing and there will be a steady decline. If not, I am content staying where I am.

SWofDisorder · Oct 2, 2015

I just sold my contracts, two within 30 days and got top dollar. It is a sellers market. Now when I check the prices are even higher than when I listed mine.

HereIGo · Oct 3, 2015

I agree with others that there will likely not be much of a decrease around the holidays, if any. I also think that most people try to close prior to the new year (so they don't have to pay another year of dues). I found the right contract a couple of weeks ago and went into ROFR not long ago. If you find the right size and use year, especially with BCV, I would buy if I were ready.
As others have said, I purchased my first contract during the recession and got an embarrassingly good deal. I feel like a got a really good deal this time too, even though it wasn't nearly as cheap. Right size, right use year, and a few banked points... that's all I needed.

Goofy DVC · Oct 3, 2015

I agree with everyone that prices are high and in some cases, bordering on ridiculous. That being said, like most, I am not willing to sell at these prices. As a result, maybe they're really not that high after all. Simple economics is dictating the fair price.

zavandor · Oct 4, 2015

The idea that at the end of the year/beginning of new year contracts would be cheaper is something that circulates a lot on these boards, but I've never see it, at least not in a noticeable way. It was maybe true during the recession, but I've bough my second contract three years ago in December while I was seeing price increases and I'm lucky I did, in January prices were higher and never stopped going up.
Moreover, this is a weird moment, with prices increase I could never think possible. I'd say: if you find a contract that suit you at a good price, buy it. Don't buy because prices might increase (it must work in the first place, it it doesn't, why bother?) and don't delay it because prices might decrease (if it works, buy it, you never know).

RaymOOOnd · Oct 5, 2015

We're well into the process of buying into our 3 favorite resorts, but seriously having doubts about the third one (VWL). It's probably our second favorite resort on the whole property but the small part of me that fancies itself even slightly smart economically is rebelling against the idea. I've been following these prices for at least a couple of years and I believe the emotional component of these early-expiration purchases (BCV, BWV, VWL) has now completely overtaken the value component. Not that there's anything wrong with this for those who can afford it. They're all above $100pp now (with the exception of some VWL contracts, which are slightly under).

Shouldn't these resorts with approximately half the life of a newly-issued contract be selling for half the price of the new resorts (VGF, Poly, BLT)? I know that's a gross oversimplification, but at least a decent starting point? As is they're now selling for about 60-70% of the DIRECT cost of the new resorts. I love VWL (and also the Epcot resorts, a dilemma which I won't bore you with here), but I think the life of the contract is a huge determinant of the value which seems almost overlooked. I'm actually considering waiting and buying direct when they eventually release the points for the cabins (although afraid I'll need like a billion points to make a decent stay, a la Poly) versus buying VGF, since the price difference between these options and resale VWL turns out not to be all that much anymore...

Will resale prices drop a little at year end?

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