Direct vs Resale

A little background.

I have a contract I have owned direct since 1999 at Boardwalk and we love staying at the Boardwalk. We also like BLT due to location (but not a fan of unit size). The BLT decor is not my favorite but would not be a deciding factor. We stayed at the Poly last week and can't speak high enough about our stay or the room.

We are contemplating adding on a contract (approx 160 points). My initial thoughts were there was no way I would buy at Poly due to point cost, and that we would probably buy BLT resale. After staying at Poly and BLT last week I could realistically see fitting 5 in the Poly studio vs the BLT anything over 2 and a child would seem tight IMO, I was playing with numbers and just wanted to see what others opinions are. As many on this board are preaching buy where you want to stay, and Poly with its views, location and vibe (for us) is winning out.

Here are my options as I see it:
1- Add on to Boardwalk (our current home resort)-
160 points at $ 90 (just for assumption purposes)= $14,400 (divided by) expires in 27 years = $533 a year in purchase cost over the use life.

2- BLT (prices since Poly seem to have jumped)
160 points at $ 115 = $18,400 expires in 45 years = $408 a year in purchase cost over the use life.

3- Poly
160 at $165 = $26,400 over 51 years = $ 517 per year.

While Poly is significantly higher than BLT per year it's lower than Boardwalk. While I may not be around in 40 years family members will. I realize there are many other factors and annual maint fees etc.
Since I have not been in the resale market I have not paid a lot of attention to this area.

Any thoughts?

1) if you are pretty sure you'll love the poly and the cost is not a deterrent, then buy direct at the poly.

2) you don't seem to be considering relative cost of the villas. BWV studios are cheaper than poly studios across the board and much cheaper if you use your home resort window to snag standard views - so while the number of pts is the same, the 160 pt contract means more nights if you buy BWV and stay there.

3) it's simplistic to divide by the years remaining - which is fine if you understand that you are simplifying things.

but realistically, those pts that are 20+ years out simply do not have the same value as points you'll get in the next few years. it's one of those time-value-of-money things - if you give me $20,000 right now, you're probably going to want more than $1000 per year returned to you over the next 20 years - a dollar now is worth more to you than a dollar in 2030.

i'm also not a fan of putting weight on what the family might want several decades down the road. statistically, most do not own the contracts for 20 years. you might be one of the exceptions, you might not, but it shouldn't be a big consideration now.

but with that said, if the poly is your thing and it's not a stretch financially, knock yourself out...

chalee94 said:

those pts that are 20+ years out simply do not have the same value as points you'll get in the next few years. it's one of those time-value-of-money things

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I argue that they do have the same value, at least if you're considering the time value of money based on inflation. Those points are just as valuable in twenty years as they are now, because the value of a resort reservation in 20 years is equivilant to a resort reservation today when considering the time value of money.

Sure, if I give you $$20,000 now and you return $1,000/year, then I come out behind. But instead, if I give you $20,000 today and you give me 500 gallons of milk per year, then you're betting on milk prices increasing less than inflation, while I'm betting it will increase more than inflation. If the cost rises at the exact rate of inflation, then we both come out whole.

My point being that the initial investment is effectively protected from inflation; so the return is inflation protected.

In your situation you should buy at the Poly only if you book at the 8-11 month window and if you book in the 0-7 month window, go for a SSR resale

Will 160 pts at Poly give you what you are looking for vs the number of nights you could stay at BLT or even more so at BWV?

KAT4DISNEY said:

Will 160 pts at Poly give you what you are looking for vs the number of nights you could stay at BLT or even more so at BWV?

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I did consider that as well but did not include in original message so as not to muddy things more. We our willing to pay a premium (more points per night) to have the resort/view that we want.

disneynutz said:

Another option is to wait until PVB contracts start showing up on the resale market and then buy at a reduced cost.

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Valid point.

Also while I understand speaking to a DVC sales person is just that (speaking to a sales person), they implied there might be more restrictions coming down the line on resale contracts. If true (who knows) I would think it would impact only resales moving forward. The other "advantage" (I use that term loosely), is we will get 2014 points plus 2015 and can get 6 months interest free on Disney Chase and points, which spreads cashflow for 6 months.

Thank You all for your perspectives, it is appreciated.

gdrj said:

Also while I understand speaking to a DVC sales person is just that (speaking to a sales person), they implied there might be more restrictions coming down the line on resale contracts. If true (who knows) I would think it would impact only resales moving forward. The other "advantage" (I use that term loosely), is we will get 2014 points plus 2015 and can get 6 months interest free on Disney Chase and points, which spreads cashflow for 6 months.

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If a timeshare salesman's lips are moving, he's lying. There are no further restrictions the can place on resale. In fact, I think any of the things they could attempt to do would actually make resale a better option.

disneynutz said:

Another option is to wait until PVB contracts start showing up on the resale market and then buy at a reduced cost.

Bill

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There is unlikely to be enough savings to make this plan work out when you account for the lost points in the interim. IF one is going to buy the Poly soon, may as well buy retail.

gdrj said:

Also while I understand speaking to a DVC sales person is just that (speaking to a sales person), they implied there might be more restrictions coming down the line on resale contracts. If true (who knows) I would think it would impact only resales moving forward. The other "advantage" (I use that term loosely), is we will get 2014 points plus 2015 and can get 6 months interest free on Disney Chase and points, which spreads cashflow for 6 months.

Thank You all for your perspectives, it is appreciated.

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As noted,don't put any stock in the scare tactic. IF and only if you'll stay most of your stays with these points at the Poly, I'd buy a fixed week(s) there, otherwise I'd look at BLT or possibly SSR (BLT as you've described your situation) and ONLY resale for that unless you're buying in VERY small at say 50 pts.

I'm solidly in the "buy where you want to stay" camp. If you love Poly and want to stay there, then buy there.
I agree that resale on the Poly won't be a better deal than you can get direct (for awhile). Right now direct will give you the extra points and resales are probably going to be stripped of points.
Good luck!

Marriedbythemouse said:

I'm solidly in the "buy where you want to stay" camp. If you love Poly and want to stay there, then buy there.
I agree that resale on the Poly won't be a better deal than you can get direct (for awhile). Right now direct will give you the extra points and resales are probably going to be stripped of points.
Good luck!

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Not to pick on you but to make a few points. I'm more of a buy the cheapest place (overall) that one will be happy if they can't get anything else. Most brand new buyers don't know where they'll want to stay long term even though most will think they will. Thus I'm a big believer in underbuying in terms of resort and number of points unless that puts one at a small contract, say under 150. Also, one should look at the options that interest them and make a decision about how difficult it would be to reserve those options at 7 months out. The AKV vs SSR discussion is a good illustration. Only looking at this from a cost and reservation standpoint, AKV is cheaper if and only if one stays most of their stays in value villas. Anytime one uses anything that could have been routinely reserved at 7 months out, one robs value from owning AKV and adds value to buying SSR. That's true even at AKV for standard and savannah view studio up to the 2 BR. For most, buying SSR and using those points a significant portion of the time for Standard is as cheap or cheaper than owning AKV and using those points for value villas a large portion of the time. Even then it assumes one buys less AKV points than SSR points by the proportions applicable and that one would never get AKV value using SSR points, both generally not accurate. Ultimately the buy where you want to stay and avoid where you'd be unhappy getting stuck with are the same when one has very specifics plans & goals that involve a very difficult to get option. Of course specialty options like a 3 BR, concierge or standard view at BWV, VGF, or BLT require owning there to count on. VGF isn't one that can be counted on routinely owning elsewhere. Also, one may be shut out of many of the specialty items as mentioned here even if they own at that resort and try to reserve day one 11 months out. Poly remains to be seen, my sense is it'll be much easier than VGF.