What will happen when BWV expires?

Dean · Jul 7, 2015

ziravan said:
I just don't see DVC telling tens of thousands of owners that it was nice doing business with you, have a nice life...

DVC will almost certainly extend the life of those resorts, and they will almost certainly tap current owners as their preferential market.

We'll see, I'd agree they'll have a plan at some point but an extension is problematic for several reasons. They shot themselves in the foot with the OKW process so they really have to take a different approach or else do it very late. As they found out with OKW, the price they can charge and be successful is not as much as they would like. I'd say it's more likely they take possession, renovate and resell than extend. I still put it 50/50.

Belle & Ariel · Jul 7, 2015

ziravan said:
I just don't see DVC telling tens of thousands of owners that it was nice doing business with you, have a nice life...

DVC will almost certainly extend the life of those resorts, and they will almost certainly tap current owners as their preferential market.

Many of the owners of 2042 resorts will be past the age of going to Disney. I see alot of current owners now in 40s to 60s--how many do you think will still be going in 27 years? Our kids will be grandparents then and probably "done" with Disney as well.

ziravan · Jul 8, 2015

Belle & Ariel said:
Many of the owners of 2042 resorts will be past the age of going to Disney. I see alot of current owners now in 40s to 60s--how many do you think will still be going in 27 years? Our kids will be grandparents then and probably "done" with Disney as well.

I'll be 74 in 2042. In addition I have Poly points that'll be around until I'm almost 100.

Whether an expiring resort is a good deal for me after 2042 depends on the deal. IF DVC retains its value, IF there is some extension offered that would allow me to continue to preserve resale value, then whether I would buy in or not has more to do with the financial considerations than future use of myself or my heirs.

Lots of IFs.

But. Even if I were a young owner, 2042 resorts at WDW will almost certainly be around and current owners will almost certainly have a chance to continue ownership at a substantial discount over new points. Whether that makes sense for then older current owners depends on the deal.

I wouldn't let 2042 scare me off buying a 2042 resort. I didn't let it.

Dean · Jul 8, 2015

ziravan said:
I'll be 74 in 2042. In addition I have Poly points that'll be around until I'm almost 100.

Whether an expiring resort is a good deal for me after 2042 depends on the deal. IF DVC retains its value, IF there is some extension offered that would allow me to continue to preserve resale value, then whether I would buy in or not has more to do with the financial considerations than future use of myself or my heirs.

Lots of IFs.

But. Even if I were a young owner, 2042 resorts at WDW will almost certainly be around and current owners will almost certainly have a chance to continue ownership at a substantial discount over new points. Whether that makes sense for then older current owners depends on the deal.

I wouldn't let 2042 scare me off buying a 2042 resort. I didn't let it.

Agreed but I'd point out that adding any value to a potential extension is overly optimistic. As you noted, they may or may not and even if they do, it may not make sense to extend, OKW didn't. I think it makes sense to adjust the price for 2042 resorts significantly because those years in question are much closer than say the difference between SSR & BTL where I'd add very little based on RTU expiration alone.

wdrl · Jul 8, 2015

ziravan said:
I just don't see DVC telling tens of thousands of owners that it was nice doing business with you, have a nice life...

DVC will almost certainly extend the life of those resorts, and they will almost certainly tap current owners as their preferential market.

I suspect DVD would likely extend the life of BWV and BCV, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it would extend the life those those respective condominium associations. A new condo association would permit DVD to make a number of changes to the master declarations, including changes to the point chart.

I've always thought that DVD undervalued BWV's points and that it should have been allotted at least 20% to 25% more points. Although BWV's Standard View point costs are beloved by many, DVD greatly underestimated what it should have charged for those villas. By creating a new condo association in 2042, it can rectify that "mistake" and bring the point costs at a resort like BWV up to current values.

How many current BWV owners would still want to own at BWV if it had a point chart more similar to VGF or VGC? I lot of the current owners will complain and not want to buy into the new BWV in 2042. But there will probably be many, many more new buyers -- some not even born yet -- that will be attracted to a new BWV and its location that will happily buy into the new condo association.

dizfan · Jul 8, 2015

ziravan said:
They can't wait any longer to put a plan in place. In 10 years or so, as 2042 points start to dwindle, the resale market for those points will dry up.

wdrl said:
I suspect DVD would likely extend the life of BWV and BCV, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it would extend the life those those respective condominium associations. A new condo association would permit DVD to make a number of changes to the master declarations, including changes to the point chart.

I've always thought that DVD undervalued BWV's points and that it should have been allotted at least 20% to 25% more points. Although BWV's Standard View point costs are beloved by many, DVD greatly underestimated what it should have charged for those villas. By creating a new condo association in 2042, it can rectify that "mistake" and bring the point costs at a resort like BWV up to current values.

How many current BWV owners would still want to own at BWV if it had a point chart more similar to VGF or VGC? I lot of the current owners will complain and not want to buy into the new BWV in 2042. But there will probably be many, many more new buyers -- some not even born yet -- that will be attracted to a new BWV and its location that will happily buy into the new condo association.

I think wdrl provides a great possible approach with the new condo association.

As ziravan points out, in 10 years or so, resales prices drop. DVD can then ROFR them for cheap. If DVD can ROFR points for $50/pt and sell them for $250+/pt (likely direct price in 10-15 years), it's a tremendous value for them. They sell a brand new condo association with those points for another 50 years. Existing owners can either pay a fee for your points to become part of the new condo association or not (including the extended years). Points bought direct from DVD maybe have one fee. Points bought via resale (with the restrictions) may have a different fee option.

Dean, didn't some other timeshares take the approach of a new condo association? I'm pretty sure you posted a few years ago about this approach when people were speculating VGF could be part of a DVC II system.

supersnoop · Jul 8, 2015

I don't think they'll be able to have overlapping condo associations. They could start a new one at expiration, but doing so before then; unlikely.

wdrl · Jul 8, 2015

dizfan said:
As ziravan points out, in 10 years or so, resales prices drop. DVD can then ROFR them for cheap. If DVD can ROFR points for $50/pt and sell them for $250+/pt (likely direct price in 10-15 years), it's a tremendous value for them. They sell a brand new condo association with those points for another 50 years. Existing owners can either pay a fee for your points to become part of the new condo association or not (including the extended years). Points bought direct from DVD maybe have one fee. Points bought via resale (with the restrictions) may have a different fee option.

As I envision it, if DVD creates a new BWV condo association (call it BWV-2) beginning February 1, 2042, then all the points from the old BWV condo association will have expired and hold no value after January 31, 2042. There would be little financial incentive for DVD to reacquire a lot of points for the old BWV condo association because they can't be used for the new BWV-2 resort.

freediverdude · Jul 8, 2015

I think Disney will offer extensions, and those who don't extend Disney will just take back the points on the end date and resell them. It's as simple as that. Disney will have to wait longer though to sell the extensions. The OKW extension deal was way too early before the end date to get those owners interested. They'll have to wait until the years left are in the teens to start selling extensions.

DougEMG · Jul 8, 2015

Dean said:
They could but unlikely. It's not like Disney to give free benefits with no benefit to themselves. Plus they'll want finality one way or another as they should. I also think it's optimistic to assume the resort will be open and functional, it's certainly not a given.

The benefit to Disney would be they don't need any special rules in the last year or two of the resort. The other benefit is that members will be more inclined to pay their dues in the last year knowing they still have time to use their points.

Here's an example:
(1) 2042 - BWV owner banks 100 points into 2043
(2) 2042 - non-BWV owner books 100 points at BWV
(3) 2042 - BWV close
(4) 2043 - BWV owner uses 100 banked points to book somewhere

This is no different then what happens now, other than of course BWV closes and the BWV owner will not be getting any new points in 2043. This seems like the simplest and easiest thing to do.

I'll be 82 in 2042 so I don't care too much what happens 2042, I'll just be happy if I can even get there to use my SSR points!

With BWV, BCV, HHI, OKW, VB and VWL contracts all expiring in 2042 I sure hope they're going to come up with plan before 2041 otherwise it could be a real mess.

DougEMG · Jul 8, 2015

wdrl said:
I suspect DVD would likely extend the life of BWV and BCV, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it would extend the life those those respective condominium associations. A new condo association would permit DVD to make a number of changes to the master declarations, including changes to the point chart.

I've always thought that DVD undervalued BWV's points and that it should have been allotted at least 20% to 25% more points. Although BWV's Standard View point costs are beloved by many, DVD greatly underestimated what it should have charged for those villas. By creating a new condo association in 2042, it can rectify that "mistake" and bring the point costs at a resort like BWV up to current values.

How many current BWV owners would still want to own at BWV if it had a point chart more similar to VGF or VGC? I lot of the current owners will complain and not want to buy into the new BWV in 2042. But there will probably be many, many more new buyers -- some not even born yet -- that will be attracted to a new BWV and its location that will happily buy into the new condo association.

I agree with you that the BWV standard room points are too low; which is why I love them. Like you say, a new condo association in 2042 with a new point chart would make a lot of sense.

Dean · Jul 8, 2015

dizfan said:
Dean, didn't some other timeshares take the approach of a new condo association? I'm pretty sure you posted a few years ago about this approach when people were speculating VGF could be part of a DVC II system.

Sure, I know of many timeshares where the are more than one legal timeshare entity within the complex both in terms of different companies and for new sections of existing resorts. Marriott did this by going to a trust system as well as having more than one legal timeshare within one complex.

supersnoop said:
I don't think they'll be able to have overlapping condo associations. They could start a new one at expiration, but doing so before then; unlikely.

Sure, they could and likely should have done so with THV. All they have to do is make it a new resort legally even within the same DVC system.

DougEMG said:
The benefit to Disney would be they don't need any special rules in the last year or two of the resort. The other benefit is that members will be more inclined to pay their dues in the last year knowing they still have time to use their points.

Here's an example:
(1) 2042 - BWV owner banks 100 points into 2043
(2) 2042 - non-BWV owner books 100 points at BWV
(3) 2042 - BWV close
(4) 2043 - BWV owner uses 100 banked points to book somewhere

This is no different then what happens now, other than of course BWV closes and the BWV owner will not be getting any new points in 2043. This seems like the simplest and easiest thing to do.

I'll be 82 in 2042 so I don't care too much what happens 2042, I'll just be happy if I can even get there to use my SSR points!

With BWV, BCV, HHI, OKW, VB and VWL contracts all expiring in 2042 I sure hope they're going to come up with plan before 2041 otherwise it could be a real mess.

Sure but at a large cost. Remember we'll pay for any costs associated with limiting the issue. It also has a lot of issues with empty rooms as thing move forward. I'll bet that's one approach that won't get any serious consideration.

lodge · Jul 8, 2015

The limiting factor for us will likely not be Disney, but airfare.

dizfan · Jul 11, 2015

wdrl said:
As I envision it, if DVD creates a new BWV condo association (call it BWV-2) beginning February 1, 2042, then all the points from the old BWV condo association will have expired and hold no value after January 31, 2042. There would be little financial incentive for DVD to reacquire a lot of points for the old BWV condo association because they can't be used for the new BWV-2 resort.

I agree if they end BWV-1 in 2042 it makes no sense to ROFR. Let the points expire and sell them as new for the going rate.

However, if they choose to extend the lifetime and make an expansion part of the same resort, it makes sense to wait for resale price fears to set in. During VWL expansion discussions, people thought $50/pt for 25 more years was too much. If the expansion was closer to 10-15 years left, people would be more likely to think $2/year is a steal.

DebbieB · Jul 11, 2015

DougEMG said:
The benefit to Disney would be they don't need any special rules in the last year or two of the resort. The other benefit is that members will be more inclined to pay their dues in the last year knowing they still have time to use their points.

Here's an example:
(1) 2042 - BWV owner banks 100 points into 2043
(2) 2042 - non-BWV owner books 100 points at BWV
(3) 2042 - BWV close
(4) 2043 - BWV owner uses 100 banked points to book somewhere

This is no different then what happens now, other than of course BWV closes and the BWV owner will not be getting any new points in 2043. This seems like the simplest and easiest thing to do.

I'll be 82 in 2042 so I don't care too much what happens 2042, I'll just be happy if I can even get there to use my SSR points!

With BWV, BCV, HHI, OKW, VB and VWL contracts all expiring in 2042 I sure hope they're going to come up with plan before 2041 otherwise it could be a real mess.

Since there are no January use years, the last BWV points would be December 2041. So no 2042 points.

I'll also be 82 and probably will not care. Probably will have sold at some point. Even if I got next to nothing for it, I've already got more than my monies worth now.

disfanforlife · Jul 12, 2015

ziravan said:
I bought my 2042 BCV points under the assumption that there would be a mechanism to extend. I believe that.

If I'm wrong, I'll be 74 years old in 2042 with more than 2 and a half decades of Disney vacations under my belt (and another 2.5 decades of PVB points remaining). I'll survive.

I wouldn't let a 2042 expiration greatly influence my purchasing decision. In fact, I didnt.

I am similar age and added on BWV in early 2013. We had the same thoughts - also have a contract at AKV. I doubt we will be traveling as much in 2042 or later so not concerned. Enjoying it for 25 years or so is find with us right now.

Sparrow624 · Jul 12, 2015

The reason that I started this thread is that my wife and I will be 60 and 62 when BWV expires (God willing). We could put more money into GFV, but really wanted a second home resort in the epcot area for every other year trips or split stays as the kids get older.

We may still buy into BWV with the thought that when/if we have grandkids 25 years into the future, we will just buy more points at GFV ....

DougEMG · Jul 13, 2015

Sparrow624 said:
The reason that I started this thread is that my wife and I will be 60 and 62 when BWV expires (God willing). We could put more money into GFV, but really wanted a second home resort in the epcot area for every other year trips or split stays as the kids get older.

We may still buy into BWV with the thought that when/if we have grandkids 25 years into the future, we will just buy more points at GFV ....

Then I'd just buy at either BWV or BCV and enjoy the resorts till they expire. What Disney does after the expiry date doesn't matter to what you are purchasing.

intertile · Jul 14, 2015

I think DVD is lookiburiedng at 2 scenarios for the 2042 resorts.
Scenerio 1 is vwl type...expand the resort, allowing them to sell new contacts with new expiration date. They could also add a mechanism with addon contracts to issue extensions to the existing contracts...i.e. add-on 100 pts to vwl retail and get your existing points extended.

Scenerio 2 is resorts that have no room for development. These resorts will probably be allowed to expire. If they expire DVD reclaims the points, can repair and update the resort as required. No need for a full knock down, so the expense will be limited. Then they can sell new contracts at the current retail price.

Shikedants · Jul 14, 2015

chalee94 said:
there is no way to know for sure.

they tried extending OKW several years ago but it was a trainwreck - so i don't expect them to offer extensions again (but VWL may be an interesting trial balloon depending on what they do with refurbing hotel rooms in the main lodge to add to DVC.)

Why was the OKW 15 yr extension offer a trainwreck?

What will happen when BWV expires?

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