What will happen when BWV expires?

Sparrow624 · Jun 30, 2015

Considering buying a contract at BWV as it is our second favorite resort (behind GFV) and we like the location. I guess my question is, with the end date coming up in 25 years, what do you think will be done/offered if anything to current owners when this happens?

The length of our GFV contract is perfect for our family, etc. But I would rather purchase a contract at BWV instead of adding on more points at GFV and rotating every other year.

chalee94 · Jun 30, 2015

Sparrow624 said:
Considering buying a contract at BWV as it is our second favorite resort (behind GFV) and we like the location. I guess my question is, with the end date coming up in 25 years, what do you think will be done/offered if anything to current owners when this happens?

there is no way to know for sure.

disney may decide to keep the property for themselves, refurb it and book it only as cash rooms. more likely they will resell it as DVC...but then they could change the theming entirely (a lot can happen in 25 years).

my suspicion is that they will resell it for 2042/2043 as a DVC resort - current owners might get a small discount from the $500 per pt pricing in effect at that time but i wouldn't count on much.

they tried extending OKW several years ago but it was a trainwreck - so i don't expect them to offer extensions again (but VWL may be an interesting trial balloon depending on what they do with refurbing hotel rooms in the main lodge to add to DVC.)

disneynutz · Jun 30, 2015

Unknown but you can bet that they will do what ever makes them the most money.

:earsboy:

Bill

MsTessP · Jun 30, 2015

As a shareholder, I say that is their job.

DVC Doctor · Jun 30, 2015

I would probably advise you to stick with VGF as that is your favorite resort and has a much longer lifespan.

disneynutz · Jun 30, 2015

MsTessP said:
As a shareholder, I say that is their job.

I agree!

Bill

Sparrow624 · Jun 30, 2015

Thank you for the advice.

Dean · Jul 1, 2015

Sparrow624 said:
Considering buying a contract at BWV as it is our second favorite resort (behind GFV) and we like the location. I guess my question is, with the end date coming up in 25 years, what do you think will be done/offered if anything to current owners when this happens?

The length of our GFV contract is perfect for our family, etc. But I would rather purchase a contract at BWV instead of adding on more points at GFV and rotating every other year.

No one really knows what will happen at the end of ROFR. Will they offer an extension, will they lottery reservations the last couple of years or just have a free for all with the unused points expiring. It's also likely they will stop banking a few years out, possibly borrowing as well.

Sparrow624 · Jul 1, 2015

Would dvc actually end banking and borrowing? That would be devastating to those who are caught in "no man's land" between the amount of points needed for another night somewhere....Or did you mean ending banking and borrowing a year or two before the end of ROFR?

supersnoop · Jul 2, 2015

Sparrow624 said:
Would dvc actually end banking and borrowing? That would be devastating to those who are caught in "no man's land" between the amount of points needed for another night somewhere....Or did you mean ending banking and borrowing a year or two before the end of ROFR?

I don't think borrowing will be a problem, but it makes sense that they would need to restrict banking as the expiration draws near. Think about those folks with a December use year when the resort expires on January 31st. They'll only have two months to use their points.

CarolMN · Jul 2, 2015

Sparrow624 said:
Would dvc actually end banking and borrowing? That would be devastating to those who are caught in "no man's land" between the amount of points needed for another night somewhere....Or did you mean ending banking and borrowing a year or two before the end of ROFR?

supersnoop said:
I don't think borrowing will be a problem, but it makes sense that they would need to restrict banking as the expiration draws near. Think about those folks with a December use year when the resort expires on January 31st. They'll only have two months to use their points.

I have no idea what will happen during the last few years, but banking and borrowing can be ended or modified at any time at DVC's discretion. As long as borrowing and banking remain in some semblance of balance, I doubt any changes will be necessary. That's why bankers should be grateful there are borrowers and borrowers should be grateful there are bankers. The system needs both to work. :teeth:

Dean · Jul 2, 2015

Sparrow624 said:
Would dvc actually end banking and borrowing? That would be devastating to those who are caught in "no man's land" between the amount of points needed for another night somewhere....Or did you mean ending banking and borrowing a year or two before the end of ROFR?

They'll pretty much have to end banking the last couple of years because there won't be enough rooms the last year or so for all the points potentially in play even without having banked points in the system. As for borrowing, I think it depends on how they decide to alot the rooms the last couple of years related to those points that can't be used.

DougEMG · Jul 3, 2015

Dean said:
They'll pretty much have to end banking the last couple of years because there won't be enough rooms the last year or so for all the points potentially in play even without having banked points in the system. As for borrowing, I think it depends on how they decide to alot the rooms the last couple of years related to those points that can't be used.

Given that banking and borrowing across the entire DVC system seems to balance out pretty good, why even change anything in the last few years of a resort expiring? It would seem a lot easier to just continue with the current system in place rather than making special rules.

DenLo · Jul 3, 2015

DougEMG said:
Given that banking and borrowing across the entire DVC system seems to balance out pretty good, why even change anything in the last few years of a resort expiring? It would seem a lot easier to just continue with the current system in place rather than making special rules.

I expect banking will be suspended at least beginning with 2040, because there is a good chance that many BWV owners will bank their points into the last year so they can say we stayed during the very last year. And if the majority of members did that there is no way every one could get a reservation in a single year. If members are limited to using only the points from 2041 that would equal the maximum number of points to book all reservations in a year. There still will be the problem that the majority will want the October through marathon weekend and perhaps even the very last week of existence for the resort.

I wonder if will they change the date that non owners can make BWV bookings for that year at BWV? DVC could do that because the rules only state that the home resort priority has to be at least one month more than non owners. So they could say non-owners cannot book at BWV until the 4 month mark to give owners longer time to make their reservations and use up those points. Keep in mind there are several DVC resorts that expire at the same time. It could be pretty chaotic without some suspension of the rules.

supersnoop · Jul 3, 2015

DenLo said:
I expect banking will be suspended at least beginning with 2040, because there is a good chance that many BWV owners will bank their points into the last year so they can say we stayed during the very last year. And if the majority of members did that there is no way every one could get a reservation in a single year. If members are limited to using only the points from 2041 that would equal the maximum number of points to book all reservations in a year. There still will be the problem that the majority will want the October through marathon weekend and perhaps even the very last week of existence for the resort.

I wonder if will they change the date that non owners can make BWV bookings for that year at BWV? DVC could do that because the rules only state that the home resort priority has to be at least one month more than non owners. So they could say non-owners cannot book at BWV until the 4 month mark to give owners longer time to make their reservations and use up those points. Keep in mind there are several DVC resorts that expire at the same time. It could be pretty chaotic without some suspension of the rules.

The home resort rule is a DVC rule and I don't think it could be applied unevenly across resorts. I suppose they could take each resort out of DVC and only allow home resort booking for the last two or three years. But I don't think that would go over well either.

bigtony777 · Jul 3, 2015

supersnoop said:
The home resort rule is a DVC rule and I don't think it could be applied unevenly across resorts. I suppose they could take each resort out of DVC and only allow home resort booking for the last two or three years. But I don't think that would go over well either.

Why would changing the time frame for non-BWV owners be any different than when they open a new resort and have different rules for the first 6 months or so?

supersnoop · Jul 3, 2015

bigtony777 said:
Why would changing the time frame for non-BWV owners be any different than when they open a new resort and have different rules for the first 6 months or so?

My understanding is that, during the time when only owners can book a new resort, those same owners cannot book anywhere else. Essentially, they haven't joined the DVC organization yet. And, for Poly, I think that time was only a couple of weeks, or a month at most.

Sparrow624 · Jul 3, 2015

It will be interesting to see what happens. I think we may still purchase enough points at BWV for a 2 bedroom every other year for a week and use our GFV points for studio and 1 BR visits. We may just take our chances. Who knows if we will still need enough points for a 2br when we are in our early 60's and the kids are 28 and 30 respectively. By that point, we could probably add on what we need at GFV.

I tend to think very long term with things and wished both contracts would be the same length, but thinking about it, having BWV end earlier for us may be a better option anyways.

Dean · Jul 3, 2015

DougEMG said:
Given that banking and borrowing across the entire DVC system seems to balance out pretty good, why even change anything in the last few years of a resort expiring? It would seem a lot easier to just continue with the current system in place rather than making special rules.

They have to do something to account for the last couple of years. There simply aren't enough rooms in the system to allow usage of all of the 2041 UY points. They could hold a lottery for who can book, they can let it be a free for all and either prorate the dues based on points used or just screw the owners out of the dues on points not used. And of course one can't bank 2041 points anyway since there's no place to use them. Since there isn't enough villas to use 2041 points, I don't see they'll allow 2040 points to be banked.

supersnoop said:
The home resort rule is a DVC rule and I don't think it could be applied unevenly across resorts. I suppose they could take each resort out of DVC and only allow home resort booking for the last two or three years. But I don't think that would go over well either.

As I read the documents, I do believe they can limit banking by resort or group of resorts. I wouldn't be surprised to see a change in the home resort booking window during this time as well. Regardless, it should be interesting and you can bet there will be some hot thread's on the subject when the time comes.

ziravan · Jul 4, 2015

I doubt very seriously that any of the 2042 resorts will close in 2042. In the case of VWL, BCV, and BWV, it seems the plan is to revamp the resort and sell more points that extend the resorts out another 25 or so years and then offer extensions and/or reclaim points in the out years.

I've thought about this and posted on it quite a bit. I think DVC will issue a special assessment based on the cost of the extended ground lease and assess it as either part of a voluntary extension or as a lien against resale.

4 options after 2042:

1. Owner holds "new" points with an ~2070 end date.
2. Owner pays a fee to voluntarily extend to 2070. This might involve a variety of carrots and sticks.
3. Owner sells as 2042 approaches and the resale triggers the lien and DVC gets paid for the extension and the new owner gets 2070 points.
4. Owner turns over 2042 points to DVC at end of contract and DVC resells as 2070 points.

Since option 4 involves owner losing all value and option 3 involves transferring some value and the cost of extension to new owners, very few people will exercise option 4. DVC isn't going to be stuck with many points.

This will extend the resorts, make DVC money on new owners, money on extending current owners, and money on forcibly extended resale owners without alienating current owners into a mandatory extension.

Money, money, money. That's the mouse way.

This is how DVC will make a new boatload of money every 25 years or so on each resort. Under this scenario, there is no worries on how to close a resort; the contracts are essentially renewably perpetual.

What will happen when BWV expires?

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