Next resort on the renovation list

lockedoutlogic · May 6, 2015

beer dave said:
That is a tough one--- Can they sell new contracts with a different end date? I don't think they are happy with the OKW situation--- Maybe the new conversions will be significant enough (and if they include a new building) to constitute a VWL 2? --- WLV&B?---- It will be interesting to see unfold.

Well...this "problem" was always going to exist...expiration contracts were always gonna have challenges. But there's too much upside for them to not do it that way. They should have to work for "something" at this point.

I just don't see different dates as big hurdle...the people that bought wilderness lodge are 15 years older now...and they sell 50 year contracts...next man up.

It's not like they are going to have "old wilderness lodgers" picketing out front demanding change...they'll be eating a $52 6 oz filet a la bland at artists point.

I think one argument I don't agree with - OKW being the best example - is all this angst about "what will they do when the contracts are up"?

The same thing they do at the $500 a night rooms at the poly (built in 1969 by guys who chain smoked in the rooms and drank bud starting at 2 pm everyday)...they'll just repackage and resell them.

DVC was never a "legacy" situation. They've made that abundantly clear...and 45 years of Disney will saturate almost anyone.

rteetz · May 6, 2015

ParkHoppers said:
Saying WL is converting some existing rooms to DVC how will this work. Will Disney sell more points for VWL? I,m thinking they have to. Will they extend the 2042 contract end date to help sell these new points? The newer DVC resort contracts end 2060 or later. Won,t Disney have to extend VWL to make buying there more appealing? Thoughts?

Just like they converted rooms at the poly. I would think brand new contracts. DVC sells well for Disney so they don't have to make it look more appealing than it is. The only thing I have seen that they might want to make more appealing is those DVC videos they are putting out they got loads of complaints about how awful they were on the DVC site.

rteetz · May 6, 2015

beer dave said:
That is a tough one--- Can they sell new contracts with a different end date? I don't think they are happy with the OKW situation--- Maybe the new conversions will be significant enough (and if they include a new building) to constitute a VWL 2? --- WLV&B?---- It will be interesting to see unfold.

The bungalows or huts have been rumored.

CowgirlTN · May 6, 2015

You guys are a wealth of information. We are making our first family trip there in May 2016. I thought maybe if I book with a renovation Property I might get a better deal on a club level/villa room. Since I would be willing to put up with construction.

rteetz · May 6, 2015

CowgirlTN said:
You guys are a wealth of information. We are making our first family trip there in May 2016. I thought maybe if I book with a renovation Property I might get a better deal on a club level/villa room. Since I would be willing to put up with construction.

They don't offer much of a discount when the do construction just at the poly that place was a complete mess a few months ago and prices were pretty similar.

Friendlyadvice2 · May 6, 2015

lockedoutlogic said:
Well...this "problem" was always going to exist...expiration contracts were always gonna have challenges. But there's too much upside for them to not do it that way. They should have to work for "something" at this point.

I just don't see different dates as big hurdle...the people that bought wilderness lodge are 15 years older now...and they sell 50 year contracts...next man up.

It's not like they are going to have "old wilderness lodgers" picketing out front demanding change...they'll be eating a $52 6 oz filet a la bland at artists point.

I think one argument I don't agree with - OKW being the best example - is all this angst about "what will they do when the contracts are up"?

The same thing they do at the $500 a night rooms at the poly (built in 1969 by guys who chain smoked in the rooms and drank bud starting at 2 pm everyday)...they'll just repackage and resell them.

DVC was never a "legacy" situation. They've made that abundantly clear...and 45 years of Disney will saturate almost anyone.

Agreed. In addition, something for people to keep in mind when talking about potential contract extensions and citing the OKW extension issues, is the size of a resort like VWL or BC compared to OKW. OKW has approximately 3-4 times the amount of units/contracts that VWL has. With Disney's current "DVC philosophy" (as we've all seen), it would be a no-brainer for them to sell new VWL (and the other classic resorts to follow) contracts and offer extensions to the current owners (remember, many fewer owners than OKW). Some owners will extend, some won't. All money that comes in from current owners is gravy and bookable revenue for that current quarter. They'll gradually get more of the contracts via increased ROFR efforts and then sell them direct as they push the new VWL contracts at $180+ per point (or whatever the new going rate will be). And all the while increasing the occupancy rate at the Wilderness Lodge!!

Andrew015 · May 6, 2015

lockedoutlogic said:
Don't think we'll see moderates ...it sends the "wrong message"

My take is that I don't think we will see the Moderates converted.... that is until they have squeezed every last drop of blood out of the Deluxe category. I do agree that ~75% deluxe conversion may very well be the end-game. At that point, all bets are off as to what happens with the moderates. No one will care about the message that is being sent, as everyone in their brother will be locked into 30-50 year contracts.

I wouldn't be shocked at this point if we start to see a "class system" evolve for DVC. Deluxes sell for $200/point. Moderates for $150/point, etc. etc. You can step down from a Deluxe if you so choose, but not visa versa. Time will tell. This wouldn't be the first time TWDC would try to force a round peg into the square hole...

lockedoutlogic · May 6, 2015

Friendlyadvice2 said:
Agreed. In addition, something for people to keep in mind when talking about potential contract extensions and citing the OKW extension issues, is the size of a resort like VWL or BC compared to OKW. OKW has approximately 3-4 times the amount of units/contracts that VWL has. With Disney's current "DVC philosophy" (as we've all seen), it would be a no-brainer for them to sell new VWL (and the other classic resorts to follow) contracts and offer extensions to the current owners (remember, many fewer owners than OKW). Some owners will extend, some won't. All money that comes in from current owners is gravy and bookable revenue for that current quarter. They'll gradually get more of the contracts via increased ROFR efforts and then sell them direct as they push the new VWL contracts at $180+ per point (or whatever the new going rate will be). And all the while increasing the occupancy rate at the Wilderness Lodge!!

To go along with this...who's to say That the plan for the "standalones"...Since there are only 2...isn't to blow them up after their contracts end (2054 for Saratoga...2057 for OKW with extension I believe) and build completely new properties to sell?

It wound allow them to create new buzz...and since downtown will be much larger than it is now...provide a more attractive property than originally built? They can also correct their design mistakes... Like sprawl primarily ( a frequent wdw mistake) and improve the appeal for there areas that are large and hard to book.

lockedoutlogic · May 6, 2015

Andrew015 said:
I wouldn't be shocked at this point if we start to see a "class system" evolve for DVC. Deluxes sell for $200/point. Moderates for $150/point, etc. etc. You can step down from a Deluxe if you so choose, but not visa versa. Time will tell. This wouldn't be the first time TWDC would try to force a round peg into the square hole...

And they're good at that.

I think we're more likely to see new "80%" DVC deluxes with a token rack component...than moderate conversion.

The facilities don't line up for moderates with DVC...that is the one thing that they'd get blowback and probably wouldn't be able to pull off.

I think it's more likely to go after the "premium client" than try to spread the net - even at ripoff rates. They want people with no budgets in DVC...and people that have no idea
What they're paying for in the first time crowd...economic synergy. It's like fishing with dynamite.

They also will continue to push the hotel rack rates up...which is almost inconceivable now...

But wait...how can you sell a $250 (fair value deluxe price) for $450 now and $650 10 years from now (if we're lucky...probably sooner than that)?

Simple.
You have 75% timeshares and insulate the whole place by pushing the "look at me" crowd into a fraction of the rooms.

More gravy all around.

Friendlyadvice2 · May 6, 2015

lockedoutlogic said:
To go along with this...who's to say That the plan for the "standalones"...Since there are only 2...isn't to blow them up after their contracts end (2054 for Saratoga...2057 for OKW with extension I believe) and build completely new properties to sell?

It wound allow them to create new buzz...and since downtown will be much larger than it is now...provide a more attractive property than originally built? They can also correct their design mistakes... Like sprawl primarily ( a frequent wdw mistake) and improve the appeal for there areas that are large and hard to book.

Are you suggesting that Disney is thinking that far ahead?

Seriously though, that's an obvious benefit to Disney for having contracts with end dates......they could definitely choose to "blow" them up to fit their needs at the time.

lockedoutlogic · May 6, 2015

Friendlyadvice2 said:
Are you suggesting that Disney is thinking that far ahead?

Damn...that's a rookie mistake on my part - I'm embarassed

Lots of
Advantages to the contract...flexibility is one...

Repackaging is the main benefit.

Like selling at 82 Datsun for the price of a 2040 Lexus....

I'll put this up again: the Polynesian & contemporary tower opened at $29 (roughly... I can't remember the exact number) in oct 1971 and remain largely unchanged....

lockedoutlogic · May 6, 2015

rteetz said:
They don't offer much of a discount when the do construction just at the poly that place was a complete mess a few months ago and prices were pretty similar.

Indeed...very few "inconvenience discounts"

We stayed a couple of nights at the poly in November following dcl and we got a $200
Room credit...

The place was really a wreck...but the reason we got the credit was that pool was closed (and only the 1970 blah pool was open) and they were giving tickets to blizzard. But since we already had premium annuals...the blizzard tickets were useless.

So credit was given in just a weird circumstance.

OldsDr · May 6, 2015

With the conversion of WL lodge rooms to DVC allow them to mess with the point charts. Total points per resort can't be modified, points per night and week can change, but they hve to net the same number of points after reallocations. So how does that work when adding more rooms. The way they set up the monrail DVCs they were able to sell a lot more points tha previous DVCs. Will adding a significant amount of rooms allow them to structure VWL point chart to be more like the monorail ones. Making current owners need to buy more points to stay in the same accomidations?

I think a DVC with a back door entrance to MK is going to come eventually.

rteetz · May 6, 2015

OldsDr said:
With the conversion of WL lodge rooms to DVC allow them to mess with the point charts. Total points per resort can't be modified, points per night and week can change, but they hve to net the same number of points after reallocations. So how does that work when adding more rooms. The way they set up the monrail DVCs they were able to sell a lot more points tha previous DVCs. Will adding a significant amount of rooms allow them to structure VWL point chart to be more like the monorail ones. Making current owners need to buy more points to stay in the same accomidations?

I think a DVC with a back door entrance to MK is going to come eventually.

Doubtful maybe 10-15 years from now but not anytime soon. They want to get as much possible out of the current resorts

lockedoutlogic · May 6, 2015

OldsDr said:
With the conversion of WL lodge rooms to DVC allow them to mess with the point charts. Total points per resort can't be modified, points per night and week can change, but they hve to net the same number of points after reallocations. So how does that work when adding more rooms. The way they set up the monrail DVCs they were able to sell a lot more points tha previous DVCs. Will adding a significant amount of rooms allow them to structure VWL point chart to be more like the monorail ones. Making current owners need to buy more points to stay in the same accomidations?

I think a DVC with a back door entrance to MK is going to come eventually.

I agree that any changes to the point chart would Have to apply to the whole property...but when they are adding new inventory - they can do it anyway they want. So if they put water cabins ( I put that possibility at 99%...though they'll have to be a little more reasonable in points)...it's just a new category..studios, 1s, and 2s, will have to be adjusted uniformly...unless the make new categories...exactly like akv.

I'm sure they have backdoor language to allow for expansion...they had a history of that in wdw long before DVC.

OldsDr · May 6, 2015

rteetz said:
Doubtful maybe 10-15 years from now but not anytime soon. They want to get as much possible out of the current resorts

That is exactly when I'm talking about. start selling it about 20 years from now 2035 before 2042s start reverting back.

ParkHoppers · May 6, 2015

Friendlyadvice2 said:
Agreed. In addition, something for people to keep in mind when talking about potential contract extensions and citing the OKW extension issues, is the size of a resort like VWL or BC compared to OKW. OKW has approximately 3-4 times the amount of units/contracts that VWL has. With Disney's current "DVC philosophy" (as we've all seen), it would be a no-brainer for them to sell new VWL (and the other classic resorts to follow) contracts and offer extensions to the current owners (remember, many fewer owners than OKW). Some owners will extend, some won't. All money that comes in from current owners is gravy and bookable revenue for that current quarter. They'll gradually get more of the contracts via increased ROFR efforts and then sell them direct as they push the new VWL contracts at $180+ per point (or whatever the new going rate will be). And all the while increasing the occupancy rate at the Wilderness Lodge!!

Can I ask anyone who has knowledge about it how the contract extension worked at OKW? How much did it cost existing member to have their contract extended. Any other details about the OKW extension would also be appreciated. I am in the process of buying a resale contract at VWL so this info could be helpful to me if VWL actually decide to offer an extension to current members.

lockedoutlogic · May 6, 2015

It was $25 per point for a 15 year extension...and they had an early price of $15 a point...

Damn...that was a good deal then - let alone now

ParkHoppers · May 6, 2015

lockedoutlogic said:
It was $25 per point for a 15 year extension...and they had an early price of $15 a point...

Damn...that was a good deal then - let alone now

Thanks for the quick response. I would take that deal. So what were the problems with the OKW extension that is talked about.

Friendlyadvice2 · May 7, 2015

ParkHoppers said:
Thanks for the quick response. I would take that deal. So what were the problems with the OKW extension that is talked about.

If you do a quick google or forum search on "OKW extension" you will find all the info you need. In short, many owners felt the extension was poorly communicated, not a good deal, and forced on them by misleading legaleze.

Disney has not announced anything official regarding VWL, so everything is speculation at this point. However IMO, VWL is small enough that it could likely be a good test case for the other classic resorts regarding extensions or lack there of. One thing for sure, IF/when something is announced, it will benefit Disney......other's will have to decide if there's any benefit for them also.

You say you would take the deal......but keep in mind the oportunity cost in the form of the time value of money by paying for points upfront that you would't be using for around 35 years (at that time) was a calculaton that each owner should have done to see if it worked for them. If the extension translated to a corresponding increase in the contract value, then it becomes a bit easier. That wasn't immediately known. As of today, the extended OKW cotracts do sell at higher prices than non-extended contracts. I could see valid arguements from owner's on both sides of the fence. Everyone's financial abilities are different.......for those that wanted to finance their OKW extension, Disney was glad to offer a 10 year note for 10.75%.

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