Last minute trips

Hogzilla · Apr 17, 2015

I think you'll be in fine shape Lakegirl. From the start of Estoppel to points in your account is ~45 days. Worst case you're looking at end of May to be in a position to book, so ~3 months before your stay. As long as you aren't super picky you'll get something.

For us, we had 455 SSR points way back from before they built SSR, and we sold out several years ago. Just now jumping back in and I am in the process of acquiring two 200 pt AKV contracts. First one (which should close next week) has 400 coming in August (200 banked). The second we are just getting ready to send to ROFR, is 200 banked from 2013 (need to be used by 9/1/15, and 400 coming 9/1 (200 banked from 2014 + 2015 pts). My best shot at a trip yet this year is during the last two weeks of July and my preference would be to use the 2013 banked points, but I won't have the ability to book until ~ 7/1 if the current timelines hold.

We'll be driving, so we're pretty flexible on arrival and departure dates ...... so I am probably chance it, wait until I get the second contract and get what I can for 5-6 days in the end of July, then sprinkle in a trip to the beach for a few days (Vero or other). I'll use the 2013 and maybe borrow a few if needed. Then for next year I am going to have somewhere around 800 points to use or rent (1200 if we borrow from 2016). :fish:

Lakegirl · Apr 18, 2015

Hogzilla said:
I think you'll be in fine shape Lakegirl. From the start of Estoppel to points in your account is ~45 days. Worst case you're looking at end of May to be in a position to book, so ~3 months before your stay. As long as you aren't super picky you'll get something.

For us, we had 455 SSR points way back from before they built SSR, and we sold out several years ago. Just now jumping back in and I am in the process of acquiring two 200 pt AKV contracts. First one (which should close next week) has 400 coming in August (200 banked). The second we are just getting ready to send to ROFR, is 200 banked from 2013 (need to be used by 9/1/15, and 400 coming 9/1 (200 banked from 2014 + 2015 pts). My best shot at a trip yet this year is during the last two weeks of July and my preference would be to use the 2013 banked points, but I won't have the ability to book until ~ 7/1 if the current timelines hold.

We'll be driving, so we're pretty flexible on arrival and departure dates ...... so I am probably chance it, wait until I get the second contract and get what I can for 5-6 days in the end of July, then sprinkle in a trip to the beach for a few days (Vero or other). I'll use the 2013 and maybe borrow a few if needed. Then for next year I am going to have somewhere around 800 points to use or rent (1200 if we borrow from 2016).

Thanks so much for your reply. That makes me feel better!!!

Sparrow624 · Apr 18, 2015

We were able to get 2 nights BLT and 2 nights GFV for late June about a week ago. Not sure if 3 months is last minute though.

DebbieB · Apr 18, 2015

I once got one night at BCV as an add on to a business trip about 1 week before. Slow time - early Feb. I would have added 2 nights but the Steelers were in the Super Bowl that weekend, I think 2006.

I wanted to a Sunday night add on in mid October about 3 weeks out - nothing. Any resort, any room size. I had points to use so I booked POFQ for 18 points, this was before the $95 fee.

disneynutz · Apr 18, 2015

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, you can't count on late minute bookings. For some resorts and some room categories you can't always count on 11 month and 7 month bookings.

:earsboy:

Bill

Missyrose · Apr 18, 2015

When Disney announced last month that Frozen Summer Fun was coming back again, I found two nights in a BCV studio for late July (about 4 months out). We plan to do nothing but hang out at Stormalong Bay and enjoy the Frozen festivities at DHS.

This has been the most "last minute" trip we've ever booked as DVC members.

Fastpassminus · Apr 23, 2015

I just got 4 nights at BLT 2bedroom standard view and1 night at AKL 1 bedroom standard view 4 months in advance. I was shocked.

skier_pete · Apr 23, 2015

I think it's relatively easy to get a last minute reservation depending on the time of year. Shorter stays are more likely, and an SSR 1-bedroom is OK, you'd probably be able to do it. My tracking spreadsheet shows SSR 1-bedrooms at near 100% availability with < 1 month advance noticed from Jan-Sept barring major holidays/events.

From my perspective though - this isn't very useful knowledge. Living in Buffalo, NY, I can't imagine that we would ever decide on a "last-minute" trip. The shortest we've ever planned a trip was 5 months for a 5-day "Surprise" trip in April 2010 (pre-DVC). Other than that, we've never been to Disney without at least 11 months pre-thought, and more typically it's 12-24 months. (Currently have tentative December 2016 plans but no 2017 plans yet.)

SomeImaginationHuh · Apr 28, 2015

skier_pete said:
I think it's relatively easy to get a last minute reservation depending on the time of year. Shorter stays are more likely, and an SSR 1-bedroom is OK, you'd probably be able to do it. My tracking spreadsheet shows SSR 1-bedrooms at near 100% availability with < 1 month advance noticed from Jan-Sept barring major holidays/events.

From my perspective though - this isn't very useful knowledge. Living in Buffalo, NY, I can't imagine that we would ever decide on a "last-minute" trip. The shortest we've ever planned a trip was 5 months for a 5-day "Surprise" trip in April 2010 (pre-DVC). Other than that, we've never been to Disney without at least 11 months pre-thought, and more typically it's 12-24 months. (Currently have tentative December 2016 plans but no 2017 plans yet.)

Is your spreadsheet something that you share? I'd be interested to see it

SomeImaginationHuh · Apr 28, 2015

Speaking of last minute trips....once Disney releases the rooms to the public (60 days out...correct?), is there still some availability for DVC owners? In other words, once the rooms are released to public are they off limits to DVC owners?

skier_pete · Apr 29, 2015

SomeImaginationHuh said:
Is your spreadsheet something that you share? I'd be interested to see it

My hope is to someday share this all on a thread - but it is not quite complete. A few more months to go. However, I'll share the SSR table for now since it is actually complete. (If you want the whole spreadsheet - you can PM me with your e-mail address and I will share it. )

I broke the year down to roughly 2 week blocks. Then I checked availability for that window once a month to see how it changed.

Key:
Open means all dates were available when surveyed (thus green)
Mostly means more than half the dates and less than all were available when surveyed (thus yellow)
Spotty means less than half the dates were available, though at least two consecutive days were available when surveyed (thus red)
None doesn't quite mean none - it means there were only individual days left when surveryed, though typically this also meant two or fewer total days available. (thus red)

Note that these tables aren't always great for determining booking at the 7-month window, as they don't represent availability at EXACTLY 7 month, but ABOUT 7-months. Also, I didn't look any closer than about 1-month. True last minute availability is too random to really show up.

SSR is far and away the most available for last minute booking, and as you can see the 1-bedrooms are more available than the studios. (I mostly surveyed studios, but if there was only one booking category I did 1-bedrooms as well.) None of the other resorts show as much green and yellow as SSR. OKW shows quite a bit of yellow in the 1-bedrooms at the 1 month mark. Everything else is almost entirely red by the 1-month mark.

SomeImaginationHuh said:
Speaking of last minute trips....once Disney releases the rooms to the public (60 days out...correct?), is there still some availability for DVC owners? In other words, once the rooms are released to public are they off limits to DVC owners?

As the tables above show, there is definitely < 60 days availability through SSR. I do not know how Disney handles these rooms. I would say that availability outside of SSR at the 2-month mark is very limited for studios. There is definitely a pretty big step-change for most resorts at the 2-month mark.

Lakegirl · Apr 29, 2015

That is great info!!! Would love to see all the resorts, but I understand that is alot for work!

skier_pete · Apr 29, 2015

Lakegirl said:
That is great info!!! Would love to see all the resorts, but I understand that is alot for work!

I've been working on it for about a year, so I have almost completed everything. However, you couldn't look at the 11-month data using the availability tool until about last July, so some of my Tables have holes in them at the 11- to 9- month mark for January-March. (The SSR tables don't have these holes because they have 100 % availability at 8 months, which therefore meant that anything longer was fully available.)

I find the data from these tables to be fascinating, and I intend to put a thread out with this data once I get it all compiled and have the time to do it. Hopefully the moderators will be OK with this and sticky the thread.

SomeImaginationHuh · Apr 29, 2015

skier_pete said:
My hope is to someday share this all on a thread - but it is not quite complete. A few more months to go. However, I'll share the SSR table for now since it is actually complete. (If you want the whole spreadsheet - you can PM me with your e-mail address and I will share it. )

I broke the year down to roughly 2 week blocks. Then I checked availability for that window once a month to see how it changed.

Key:
Open means all dates were available when surveyed (thus green)
Mostly means more than half the dates and less than all were available when surveyed (thus yellow)
Spotty means less than half the dates were available, though at least two consecutive days were available when surveyed (thus red)
None doesn't quite mean none - it means there were only individual days left when surveryed, though typically this also meant two or fewer total days available. (thus red)

Note that these tables aren't always great for determining booking at the 7-month window, as they don't represent availability at EXACTLY 7 month, but ABOUT 7-months. Also, I didn't look any closer than about 1-month. True last minute availability is too random to really show up.

SSR is far and away the most available for last minute booking, and as you can see the 1-bedrooms are more available than the studios. (I mostly surveyed studios, but if there was only one booking category I did 1-bedrooms as well.) None of the other resorts show as much green and yellow as SSR. OKW shows quite a bit of yellow in the 1-bedrooms at the 1 month mark. Everything else is almost entirely red by the 1-month mark.

View attachment 91333

As the tables above show, there is definitely < 60 days availability through SSR. I do not know how Disney handles these rooms. I would say that availability outside of SSR at the 2-month mark is very limited for studios. There is definitely a pretty big step-change for most resorts at the 2-month mark.

This is wonderful, and so nice of you being willing to share. It also provides me with lots of hope, as we are going at the beginning of September. Thanks so much!!

wallygirl · Apr 29, 2015

skier_pete said:
I've been working on it for about a year, so I have almost completed everything. However, you couldn't look at the 11-month data using the availability tool until about last July, so some of my Tables have holes in them at the 11- to 9- month mark for January-March. (The SSR tables don't have these holes because they have 100 % availability at 8 months, which therefore meant that anything longer was fully available.)

I find the data from these tables to be fascinating, and I intend to put a thread out with this data once I get it all compiled and have the time to do it. Hopefully the moderators will be OK with this and sticky the thread.

This is really valuable information! We were hoping to book our first DVC trip end of May (was told that the selling agent could help expedite matters). Now though it's looking like we won't be able to book until end of June and will have to use points by end of July or they expire. We were given a closing date of May 26th and told 21-27 business days beyond that to get membership number to book. If we can't close on the 26th we may just let it go because we wanted the contract b/c of the extra points. Thanks again for all your help!

Deb & Bill · Apr 29, 2015

wallygirl said:
This is really valuable information! We were hoping to book our first DVC trip end of May (was told that the selling agent could help expedite matters). Now though it's looking like we won't be able to book until end of June and will have to use points by end of July or they expire. We were given a closing date of May 26th and told 21-27 business days beyond that to get membership number to book. If we can't close on the 26th we may just let it go because we wanted the contract b/c of the extra points. Thanks again for all your help!

If you bought resale, the selling agent really can't help you with booking. That only works if your purchase direct from Disney.

wallygirl · Apr 29, 2015

Deb & Bill said:
If you bought resale, the selling agent really can't help you with booking. That only works if your purchase direct from Disney.

We put an offer in based on them telling us they could get it done with plenty of time to still use the points available (originally they said it would be done by beginning to mid-May). This is our first time buying DVC, so knew they process was longer than buying direct, but we put the offer in based on what the person told us was possible. It seems that estoppel time has increased significantly since February.

Lakegirl · Apr 29, 2015

wallygirl said:
We put an offer in based on them telling us they could get it done with plenty of time to still use the points available (originally they said it would be done by beginning to mid-May). This is our first time buying DVC, so knew they process was longer than buying direct, but we put the offer in based on what the person told us was possible. It seems that estoppel time has increased significantly since February.

I agree. The estoppel process has really increased in time since then.

allison plevrakis · May 1, 2015

Skier_Pete, thanks for sharing your data! We are still waiting for our estoppel, its been 26 days : ( We started this process in mid Feb and were told start to finish the whole process would take 6-8 weeks, so we were thinking we'd be able to book our Sept vacation in April and instead we're still waiting and we're now going on week 12. Pete, do you have any data on 2 or 3 bedrooms? Our first choice is to book a 3 bedroom at OKW in the 3rd full week in Sept. I don't think there are many 3 bedrooms at any resort so I'm afraid they might go quickly??

skier_pete · May 2, 2015

allison plevrakis said:
Skier_Pete, thanks for sharing your data! We are still waiting for our estoppel, its been 26 days : ( We started this process in mid Feb and were told start to finish the whole process would take 6-8 weeks, so we were thinking we'd be able to book our Sept vacation in April and instead we're still waiting and we're now going on week 12. Pete, do you have any data on 2 or 3 bedrooms? Our first choice is to book a 3 bedroom at OKW in the 3rd full week in Sept. I don't think there are many 3 bedrooms at any resort so I'm afraid they might go quickly??

I'm not sure why they told you 6-8 weeks is typical for the whole process from putting in your offer. I think 10-12 weeks is more typical. Ours took about 2.5 months. From the start of March to mid-May last year.

I only surveyed the studio rooms, unless the resort had only one studio room category, then I also surveyed the 1-bedrooms (@ SSR, OKW, WLV & BCV). I did this mostly because it was a time intensive task and it was primarily for my own purposes, and we are unlikely to ever want to swing something bigger than a studio, with the slight possibility of a 1-bedroom on occasion.

What i can tell you is the difficulty to get things typically ranks as follows:

1-bedrooms
2-bedrooms
Grand Villas
Studios

The studios are hardest to get because they are the most popular.
The grand villas are also hard to get because there are so few of them.

There's a thread on the DIS that lists how many GV there are. BWV for instance only has 7 of them. SSR has the 36.

We are not allowed to look up availability for people, but I will tell you this: If you want a GV in September at this stage, you will likely have to settle for SSR, which will run you about 80 more points than OKW.

A two-bedroom you will probably have a little more flexibility, but still likely only SSR, OKW or AKV. Once you get into later September Food and Wine starts and DVC popularity goes up. Early September you might do better.

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