Box Office Discussion

[rteetz]

PSA: go see Petes Dragon! It's a great film and doesn't deserve to flop. No it's not the animated original but I don't think it should be compared to that because it's so different. I really enjoyed the film.

 

[MattAgony]

Moana looks to be a 200 million film. I cannot see it going much higher then Tangled.
Rogue One is now a troubled production, from a not so strong director. It won't have the event factor of The Force Awakens. 400 million total is probably gonna be its ballpark.

Absolutely agree with Moana doing decently.
As for Rogue One, I expect it to surpass $500 million, simply because it's Star Wars. Even with a "weak" director, Star Wars fans will still want to see it... maybe twice.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

PSA: go see Petes Dragon! It's a great film and doesn't deserve to flop. No it's not the animated original but I don't think it should be compared to that because it's so different. I really enjoyed the film.

Ahhh...it's 87% fresh...
But at $34 mil through 9 days...

That's a bomb...it's how this works...and why you DONT want to do what big shot Bobby is: trying to oversaturate.

Leave them wanting more...occasionally.

So 3 big hits...3 utter flops this year...

Still a good year on the books...but they probably are gonna be close to 4 and 4 by New Years...that's tough

 

[rteetz]

Ahhh...it's 87% fresh...
But at $34 mil through 9 days...

That's a bomb...it's how this works...and why you DONT want to do what big shot Bobby is: trying to oversaturate.

Leave them wanting more...occasionally.

So 3 big hits...3 utter flops this year...

Still a good year on the books...but they probably are gonna be close to 4 and 4 by New Years...that's tough

I am just pointing out that it is a good movie and isn't getting the numbers it deserves.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I am just pointing out that it is a good movie and isn't getting the numbers it deserves.

I get you...

...but that matters not because it's a write down....

Production budget of what? $150?
Marketing north of $100?

 

[rteetz]

I get you...

...but that matters not because it's a write down....

Production budget of what? $150?
Marketing north of $100?

I understand its not going to be a success but its a good movie and just because its not a success people should still go and see it or rent it on dvd or something when it comes out.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I understand its not going to be a success but its a good movie and just because its not a success people should still go and see it or rent it on dvd or something when it comes out.

Again...I still get you. No argument.

The suits care about the money...and the fans get nothing when the suits are angry about the money. So let it be written...so let it be done.

 

[Lee Matthews]

Absolutely agree with Moana doing decently.
As for Rogue One, I expect it to surpass $500 million, simply because it's Star Wars. Even with a "weak" director, Star Wars fans will still want to see it... maybe twice.

That's a bit harsh for Rogue One. Force Awakens did $2 billion. I expect Rogue One will do half of that.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

That's a bit harsh for Rogue One. Force Awakens did $2 billion. I expect Rogue One will do half of that.

No...I think that's fair...domestically.

If it's surprisingly good...it will do $750...if not so good, $450-500.

That's a good range. $1-1.5 bil total with overseas.

It is a guaranteed gold mine...but a bad film will do damage to longterm
Appeal and ancillaries for the franchise moving forward...they could be on a path to strangling a golden goose. It's a nice "problem" too have...
But this is the old phantom menace debate:
"It made a ton of money...what do you want?"
Yeah...but the downright awful quality left a lot more dollars/merchandise on the table for the last 15 years. I can't prove that with a number but it's never been in doubt to the edjubacted...

Wait...I forgot...I know nothing about Star Wars

Star Wars needed "fixing"...we all know...and boy, did Disney and Abrams play that up. Not that it wasn't the smartest tactic...it was.
But we'll never see another $2.066 (without a lot of inflation bump) again for a Star Wars...unless
They make a fantastic one...the international interest just isnt there.

I hate to say (but they make me)...but they need an Empire - a dark one - that is story and character driven without regard for kids (that's what empire was at the time and why it knocked everyone's socks off longterm - the contrast)...and need not make a "statement".

It just needs to be unapologetically good without social "message".

 

[Whatsthegoodword]

That's a bit harsh for Rogue One. Force Awakens did $2 billion. I expect Rogue One will do half of that.

I don't think Rogue One will get to $2B, but I think it will be the better film. I expect it will roar past $1B. Maybe $1.3 or so.

...but I agree that their over saturation isn't smart. There's only so much room for kids' movies...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I don't think Rogue One will get to $2B, but I think it will be the better film. I expect it will roar past $1B. Maybe $1.3 or so.

...but I agree that their over saturation isn't smart. There's only so much room for kids' movies...

I think it very well could be a better film...we hope.

But don't see anywhere that number for the theory I stated above.

The force awakens was too much a vessel for fords exit. I don't think they get a second shot at that kinda box office so soon.

I know they kept saying "it's a new story...with new characters..."
But they didn't have the old ones enough...fisher looked horrendous and the complete omission of hamill (they could have done some cut always with using the force or something...) would have given the movie bite if done well.

They kept stressing keeping running time to a limit in the run up - if you'll recall - and I couldn't figure out why.
Two possibilities:
1. Worried the Chinese have short attention spans - which was irrelevant and predictably so...
2. They wanted a shorter film to allow for more showings per day - that could be the likely culprit and beyond silly if true. Fans wanted more...and extra 20-30 minutes would be a huge thing if done with care - not Lucas's prequel cgi that was frankly insulting.

I'm just theorizing.

There were two key figures that made Star Wars great...gary Kurtz...who was responsible for a lot of the final product and film for a new hope
And empire (until lucas threw him out when he said Jedi was going too product oriented/baby...there's a shocker to no one)...

And Mark hamill...you read that right.
Irvin kershner maintained...and he was correct...that hamill carried the movies - particularly Empire.

He was right...everyone loved ford in the 80's (he was Indy; of course)...but hamill - not a great actor - managed to define the longterm feel that has created the phenomenon. More than any single element.

Am I saying he's important now? Yeah...I think that's how this shakes up moving forward.
Ridley did great...but we need old school Jedi feel...and that was the main flop by Lucas in the prequels because he missed it 95%...

Yoda and Samuel L standing next to the most evil thing ever created for 15 years and they have no clue? Yeah...good work, Jorge...

 

[TwoMisfits]

PSA: go see Petes Dragon! It's a great film and doesn't deserve to flop. No it's not the animated original but I don't think it should be compared to that because it's so different. I really enjoyed the film.

You are the 2nd person to say this...on a non-Disney board, someone said it was life-changing...but as others said on the same board, Disney did this film no favors with timing (terrible August date, terrible year to put it out with another boy/CGI animal remake) and advertising, since many said they saw little in adult-type media (and adults are a big part of the Disney remake audience)...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

You are the 2nd person to say this...on a non-Disney board, someone said it was life-changing...but as others said on the same board, Disney did this film no favors with timing (terrible August date, terrible year to put it out with another boy/CGI animal remake) and advertising, since many said they saw little in adult-type media (and adults are a big part of the Disney remake audience)...

A film with an 87% fresh rate shouldn't bomb...

And rarely do...this was business failure, not a movie making failure.

Defend the greatest CEO in world history now...who went on stage at D23 and pushed their glut of movies...
Think this Could have been a nice off season movie for next year? Like the jungle book was this?

Foolish.

 

[rteetz]

You are the 2nd person to say this...on a non-Disney board, someone said it was life-changing...but as others said on the same board, Disney did this film no favors with timing (terrible August date, terrible year to put it out with another boy/CGI animal remake) and advertising, since many said they saw little in adult-type media (and adults are a big part of the Disney remake audience)...

Yep. I consider a film good or great when my emotions are really brought into it. There were small subtle humor parts but then there were also parts I was almost brought to a tear. It's a shame Disney didn't give this film better timing and such.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Yep. I consider a film good or great when my emotions are really brought into it. There were small subtle humor parts but then there were also parts I was almost brought to a tear. It's a shame Disney didn't give this film better timing and such.

...what they gave it...is ten years of "only on Disney Channel/XD"

But i must be wrong..."do no wrong and all"

...thank god Iger brought lucas to the table for that $4 billion (which he gave away) kicking and screaming, huh?

 

[Lee Matthews]

No...I think that's fair...domestically.

If it's surprisingly good...it will do $750...if not so good, $450-500.

That's a good range. $1-1.5 bil total with overseas.

It is a guaranteed gold mine...but a bad film will do damage to longterm
Appeal and ancillaries for the franchise moving forward...they could be on a path to strangling a golden goose. It's a nice "problem" too have...
But this is the old phantom menace debate:
"It made a ton of money...what do you want?"
Yeah...but the downright awful quality left a lot more dollars/merchandise on the table for the last 15 years. I can't prove that with a number but it's never been in doubt to the edjubacted...

Wait...I forgot...I know nothing about Star Wars

Star Wars needed "fixing"...we all know...and boy, did Disney and Abrams play that up. Not that it wasn't the smartest tactic...it was.
But we'll never see another $2.066 (without a lot of inflation bump) again for a Star Wars...unless
They make a fantastic one...the international interest just isnt there.

I hate to say (but they make me)...but they need an Empire - a dark one - that is story and character driven without regard for kids (that's what empire was at the time and why it knocked everyone's socks off longterm - the contrast)...and need not make a "statement".

It just needs to be unapologetically good without social "message".

I forget the Americans only talk domestic numbers. Im talking $1 billion worldwide which is still a massive success.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

No doubt...

But in this case the domestic is the big deal. Force awakens didn't do Nearly as well internationally in comparison. Neither did dory.

50/50 splits is worrisome for Disney...no doubt.

Avatar did like 750 more internationally 7 years before...that's apalling.

Jurassic world did way too much for its quality. It's not that tough, people.

1.25-1.5 total for an anthology movie would be spectacular...

Because people love Star Wars...but they still prefer to see Luke skywalker with a lightsaber...that's a core draw.

I think Han Solo is gonna be a flop...I don't trust kasdan(s) on this one.

 

[saskdw]

I nominate this for the alltime disboards misguided hall of fame

Is there a way to like this post more than once?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Is there a way to like this post more than once?

...I don't know...I'm too busy "grinding my axe"

 

[luisov]

I get you...

...but that matters not because it's a write down....

Production budget of what? $150?
Marketing north of $100?

Disney was actually quite cautious with this one. It has an estimate budget of 65 million. They probably realised that their movies have been pretty hit or miss these days. Cinderella has a quite modest budget as well. I think we'll start seeing smaller budgets for pretty much everything that's not a guaranteed success.