Tropical Storm Erika

[JimMIA]

Just as Danny disappears, Tropical Storm Erika pops up!

At 5 PM this evening, TS Erika was located about 605 miles east of the Leeward Islands. She is a very fast-moving storm, traveling west at approximately 20 MPH. The storm has sustained winds of about 40 MPH.

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands, which means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. Those may be upgraded to Warnings later this evening.

There is considerable uncertainty about Erika's future -- both in terms of track and intensity. But the current 5-day forecast projects Erika as a Category 1 hurricane located over the northern Bahamas, and close to Miami on Sunday.

This is one of those weird situations where we Miamians root for the storm to take the path most likely to bring it directly to us -- because if it takes that path, it will self-destruct in the mountains of the Dominican Republic.

So bottom line, way too early to tell, but keep your eyes on this system. One difference between this storm and Danny -- this one is whizzing along at 20 MPH and it won't take long to figure out where it's going at that speed.

 

[magicaldisney]

Good Luck over there!

 

[Barbydoll8]

Shouldn't be bad. This morning's advisory said that if it stays a cat 1 it might come into south east FL. If it gets bigger/stronger, it will likely spin off into the Atlantic. We should know more closer to Sunday/Monday as to its path. WDW visitors shouldn't worry about it. There might be some rain but at this point, not likely. Now Miami cruisers...that's another story.

 

[TagsMissy]

Lucky us depart on the Fantasy on Saturday. Here's hoping it fizzles out like Danny I don't want to change our course, I really wanted to do the Eastern Caribbean.

Erika or not we're MCO bound tonight, arriving tomorrow morning to get in some WDW time pre-cruise then we're back post cruise for a lovely week long stay.

 

[JimMIA]

Still not a whole lot to say about this system. The general forecast has not changed much since yesterday. The 5-day forecast track brings Erika ashore on the SE Florida coast in the general Miami area Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. But NHC always makes a point of noting that 5-day projections average being hundreds of miles off.

So we'll see. There are a couple of hopeful signs. One is that all of the computer models have been shifting to the right for a couple of days -- indicating that the storm might recurve out to the north and northeast and miss Florida. That's not an unusual occurrence, and when the models shift together like that, they don't usually swing back. The other good sign is that the model which most persistently shows the storm hitting us (GFS) also shows the storm disintegrating before it gets here.

Too early to tell much -- stay tuned.

 

[Mamapapa]

I'm watching this system. I'm not worried about a hurricane hitting Florida, as I don't think it will, I just don't want hours of rain every day to ruin my WDW vacation starting this Sunday. We've played that game before! We made the best of it of course, but I think anyone would prefer sunshine to rain while in WDW!!

 

[JimMIA]

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE - 8 AM Advisory

Some good news this morning. Erika strengthened slightly overnight -- still well below hurricane strength -- but the projected path of the storm continues to shift to the right (east), which is good for Florida.

At 8 AM, Erika had passed over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and was located about 90 miles west of Guadaloupe, moving west at 16 mph, with approximately 50 mph winds. She is expected to shift to a NW direction, passing over the Virgin Islands today, and the eastern part of Puerto Rico tonight. The storm is expected to pass north of Hispaniola, over the Turks & Caicos, and generally travel right up through the middle of the Bahamas Saturday and Sunday -- all still at tropical storm intensity because of strong wind shear.

The 5 day track takes Erika offshore of the Florida coastline reaching Category 1 hurricane status on Monday.

There are two ways to look at the 5 day track. One, the National Hurricane Center is quick to point out that there is a significant error factor in projections beyond 3 days: "One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5."

But the more optimistic way of looking at it is not to look at the forecast track, but the models. For the last three days, all of the computer models have been gradually trending to the right -- which would take the storm farther and farther east of the Florida coastline.

So the bottom line is that it is still too early to determine what, if any, Erika will have on Florida or WDW, but the trend is encouraging.

 

[theycomefromallover]

We are suppose to fly in on Tuesday morning. Even IF it goes right over Orlando. Does anyone have any idea how long it takes to get flights coming back into MCO? When did flights start arriving again after Charley? Not to worried, just trying to figure out logistics.

 

[ariane37]

I'm not worrying about this at all, staying positive that it's going to have little to no effect on Florida We fly in Sat. night. If we get rain so be it: we've worked with that before down there! Would just prefer it doesn't rain for our whole vacation......

 

[MakiraMarlena]

You can't figure out logistics now. Erika could be much different than Charley. Frances stalled and sat over the area for TWO DAYS. Of course Erika is much smaller than Frances or even Charley.

 

[a742246]

Jim. I like your weather summary very much. Were you a meteorologist or is this your hobby?

 

[JimMIA]

Jim. I like your weather summary very much. Were you a meteorologist or is this your hobby?

No! I live in Miami! We all do this!

 

[a742246]

We do the same thing in Vermont except its snowstorms!

 

[DenLo]

Did anyone see the latest forecast for Erika? It looks like Florida is in for some heavy rain Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday without the worry of a hurricane. The devastation from the flooding in Dominica was pretty horrendous from this storm. It does look like some flight delays at MCO on Tuesday though.

 

[thebigman65]

Wow...I hope that changes for all. We are coming in Thursday morning. I know it's supposed to stay a TS, so you think we will be ok Thursday morning? Stay safe everyone and God Bless!

 

[JimMIA]

Yes, this has been interesting. The most definitive thing I've seen in the last three days was the red Miami sky at daybreak this morning. Old sailor saying: "Red sky at morning, sailor take warning."

That's about as accurate as anything the great folks at NHC can tell us about this storm -- there are just too many unknowns, too many variables, and not enough energy in this storm to keep it consistent. Strong storms are like freight trains, they plow ahead regardless. Weak systems like Erika are like ping pong balls.

At 11 AM this morning, Erika was about 65 miles SSE of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, moving WNW at about 18 mph, as shown in the 5-day track above. Erika is a mid-level tropical storm (50 mph sustained winds, gusts to 65), and is expected to stay that strength. Unless, of course, that changes.

As you can see, the projected track takes the storm across the central part of Hispaniola (a blessing and a curse, depending on where you live), along the northern coast of Cuba, through the Middle Florida Keys, roughly over Marco Island and Naples on Florida's Gulf Coast, and then up Florida a little west of the midline of the state, roughly passing over Lakeland between Tampa and Orlando.

There are three "bad news" factors in that track.

1. Haiti does not play well with storms, especially wet storms because their landscape has been practically stripped of vegetation. So we could see yet another set of horrific pictures coming out of Haiti in a couple of days. Hopefully not.
2. These things almost never go where they are "supposed" to go. Three days out, where you really want to be is right in the crosshairs of the NHC track, because you can bet the farm the storm is NOT going there. From the map above, I think the only accurate takeaway we can have is that the storm is going to pass over central Hispaniola moving WNW today. Anything else is a guess.
3. If the storm does follow this track, keep in mind that ALL of the wind and most of the rain has been on the EAST side of the storm due to strong wind shear. That could help Haiti quite a bit (hopefully), but for those of us in SE Florida or WDW, this could mean more weather than we're expecting.

Two "good news" factors, and one potentially good thing:

1. While the 2-5 day track is anybody's guess, it does appear pretty certain that Erika will pass directly over central Hispaniola, which in mountainous. Hispaniola has 5 mountains with elevations over 7,400 feet, including one almost 9,000 feet, two more than 9,000 feet, and one over 10,000 feet. So these are mountains, not hills. These mountains alone could totally disrupt Erika, although it would still be possible for her to regenerate once clear of the mountains.
2. At the same time, Erika is being battered by very strong windshear -- 25 kts or more. Like the mountains, the windshear disrupts the circulation of the storm, contributing to weakening and possible dissipation.
3. The potentially positive factor is that if Erika shifts just a little to the left, she could also interact with the mountainous eastern end of Cuba.

So really, today is the day when we should see what happens to Erika -- whether she survives and moves on to threaten Florida, falls apart completely, or maybe staggers westward to regroup in the Gulf of Mexico. Should be interesting to see whether we go to the beach tomorrow or put up storm shutters.

 

[theycomefromallover]

The thing I just can't find (And maybe no one has this info. lol. Thats why I can't find it) is if a Tropical storm goes over orlando how long till they start letting flights come in? Man I wish I was getting here a few days earlier or later! Ugh. Any advice for a guy who has a flight scheduled to arrive at 9:45am on Tuesday morning at MCO?

 

[JimMIA]

The thing I just can't find (And maybe no one has this info. lol. Thats why I can't find it) is if a Tropical storm goes over orlando how long till they start letting flights come in?

Sure, there's an easy answer. It depends. Right now we don't know what Erika is going to do, or even if she'll still exist on Tuesday. Whether aircraft are repositioned or schedules are affected depends on a near-total unknown. So the only real answer is, it depends on what the storm does.

Any advice for a guy who has a flight scheduled to arrive at 9:45am on Tuesday morning at MCO?

Stay in touch with your airline. You can bet they are following it closely, and they will let you know when your flight gets closer. Although airlines are not compelled to do anything due to weather problems, they will try to help you as much as they can. If you have preferential frequent flyer status, they will take care of you first. Don't know what airline you are flying, but American has always done right by me, even in situations where I didn't even know there was a problem.

Good luck.

 

[theycomefromallover]

I'm flying southwest on Frequent Flyer Miles. Should I just give them a call now? Or wait till they put something on their website? Don't want to waste my time if theres nothing they can do yet. Thank you for your response!

Also...Do you (or someone on this page) know how wide this storm is? I couldn't find that info. Thanks.

 

[JimMIA]

I'm flying southwest on Frequent Flyer Miles. Should I just give them a call now? Or wait till they put something on their website? Don't want to waste my time if theres nothing they can do yet. Thank you for your response!

I would wait for them. They'll probably contact you by email or text. There really isn't much they can tell you at this point.

Also...Do you (or someone on this page) know how wide this storm is? I couldn't find that info. Thanks.

Max sustained winds 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
34 kt.......130ne 120se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas..180ne 120se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

What this means, in plain English, is that there is NO left side of the storm because of the strong windshear, but TS strength winds (34 kt/39 mph) extend out pretty far to the NE and SE quadrants.

Of course, for flying, 40-60 mph winds are nothing -- the planes fly 500 mph into 100+ mph jet streams every day.