Disney's $1 billion dollar bet on magical wristband - Wired

[rteetz]

Because Disney had no idea how robust the consumer was going to be. Disney probably thought that if they charged $100 it would see massive attendance declines. Instead they got big attendance increases. It's only okay because everyone on these boards made it okay.

Though that argument about fewer attractions is weak. We've gotten 4 new E Tickets, several new Ds, and great new themed areas. The product is better then it was before. Now the value is worse...

4 new E? I don't necesssrily agree that the product is better than before when they continue to close things at both Epcot and DHS.

 

[DDLand]

4 new E? I don't necesssrily agree that the product is better than before when they continue to close things at both Epcot and DHS.

I'm thinking Everest, TSMM, Soarin, and Mission Space. You can argue TSMM is iffy. The other three are well accepted. Since 2001. No way would I go back to the Pre Everest days...

 

[rteetz]

I'm thinking Everest, TSMM, Soarin, and Mission Space. You can argue TSMM is iffy. The other three are well accepted. Since 2001. No way would I go back to the Pre Everest days...

I'd put TSMM on the D line

 

[Josh Hendy]

Adjusted for inflation, the $48 gate price in 2001 should have risen to $63.34 - meaning that ticket prices are rising at 3x the rate of inflation for the US economy as a whole. Tell me why that's OK while they have reduced the number of attractions in the four parks over that same time?

One reason why it's been happening is that official inflation statistic are fake. If you want to learn more, check out this. According to more honest price inflation calculations I think that the $48 should have risen to somewhere pretty close to what the price is today. But it is NOT OK as I will try to explain ...

Inflation is caused by an increase in the money supply. Once upon a time it was done by debasing coins, then by printing paper money, but nowadays by creating credit out of thin air in a complicated dance initiated by and for the benefit of government and big banks working in cahoots (c.f. The Creature from Jekyll Island).

Please stay with me, I will get back to theme parks shortly ... the new money does not circulate freely and and equally throughout the economy. It sticks to some people's fingers but it evades or slips through other people's. Prices of many things go up and up, but ordinary people's wages do not go up nearly as fast.

To put it simply, there is a spigot that is spraying new money into the economy out of thin air. Those located closest to the spigot (and who in fact built and operate the spigot) benefit most. That would be national governments (or supra-national governments in Europe) and large banks. Next come the very large corporations and state/provincial governments who are most able to influence and get favors (massive low-interest credit) from the spigot-masters. Those located farthest from the spigot (ordinary working stiffs, children, students, retirees) get conned. They get eroded purchasing power, eroded savings, high taxes and lots of debt.

Furthermore, rampant inflation erodes the worth and value of solid, chunky investments that SHOULD be steady earners due to their obvious perceived value (such as great theme park rides) and tends to favor more ethereal, speculative and slipshod investments (such as timeshare condos built and bought on credit).

That is why people are shocked and appalled at the price increases at WDW and also why, considering the price increases, not very much in the form of solid entertainment has been built recently. It's also why park maintenance and employee morale have (according to some) been slipping.

I can't explain why attendance keeps going up at WDW, but I'm pretty sure it's not because the average guest is more prosperous than they were a few years ago. Possibly people are substituting a Disney vacation for some other more expensive form of holiday. Some of them are enjoying vacations on credit, such as by borrowing money to buy a DVC timeshare. Many of them are foreigners who may be having flings at WDW as a way of getting money out of their own economically godforsaken heck-hole of a country and enjoy some of it abroad.

One big factor related to inflation is that only idiots save money, because inflation based on a credit bubble means low interest rates on investments, generally lower than (actual) inflation. People are more likely to spend $10k on a family vacation therefore than to save it for their kids' university. Thanks to the credit bubble they can borrow what they need for university anyways!

 

[lockedoutlogic]

If you are not fluffing it...Everest is an e - but frankly you can't continue to gloss the mechanical failure. It's a fairly tame roller coaster without the theme elements...and the theme IS the yeti.

Soarin is not...a moderate simulator is not. You can't call a simulator an E based on the wait time.

Mission space could be...definitely...but it's not well received and that is a bit of a problem

Toy story ABSOLUTELY not. Are you insane? A screened 3d shooter on a track?
I rode a "sneak preview" of that ride and it wasn't presented as an E. It was called "men in black: alien attack" and it was in 2001.

Stop pumping the tires, please...they're just not refreshing their amusement parks enough. This really isn't rocket science. They won't spend unless they somehow can score from it...and you just can't reasonably do that and not shoot yourself in the **** long term.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Josh,

You hit the two main "boom" points:

The wreckless credit habits and the foreign desire to show/travel with "wealth"

Wdw's two main foreign customers are the EU And Brazil

...no one in Los estados unidos understands how close both those places are to collapse.
It will only take one hit...maybe not even a direct one.

 

[DDLand]

One reason why it's been happening is that official inflation statistic are fake. If you want to learn more, check out this. According to more honest price inflation calculations I think that the $48 should have risen to somewhere pretty close to what the price is today. But it is NOT OK as I will try to explain ...

Inflation is caused by an increase in the money supply. Once upon a time it was done by debasing coins, then by printing paper money, but nowadays by creating credit out of thin air in a complicated dance initiated by and for the benefit of government and big banks working in cahoots (c.f. The Creature from Jekyll Island).

Please stay with me, I will get back to theme parks shortly ... the new money does not circulate freely and and equally throughout the economy. It sticks to some people's fingers but it evades or slips through other people's. Prices of many things go up and up, but ordinary people's wages do not go up nearly as fast.

To put it simply, there is a spigot that is spraying new money into the economy out of thin air. Those located closest to the spigot (and who in fact built and operate the spigot) benefit most. That would be national governments (or supra-national governments in Europe) and large banks. Next come the very large corporations and state/provincial governments who are most able to influence and get favors (massive low-interest credit) from the spigot-masters. Those located farthest from the spigot (ordinary working stiffs, children, students, retirees) get conned. They get eroded purchasing power, eroded savings, high taxes and lots of debt.

Furthermore, rampant inflation erodes the worth and value of solid, chunky investments that SHOULD be steady earners due to their obvious perceived value (such as great theme park rides) and tends to favor more ethereal, speculative and slipshod investments (such as timeshare condos built and bought on credit).

That is why people are shocked and appalled at the price increases at WDW and also why, considering the price increases, not very much in the form of solid entertainment has been built recently. It's also why park maintenance and employee morale have (according to some) been slipping.

I can't explain why attendance keeps going up at WDW, but I'm pretty sure it's not because the average guest is more prosperous than they were a few years ago. Possibly people are substituting a Disney vacation for some other more expensive form of holiday. Some of them are enjoying vacations on credit, such as by borrowing money to buy a DVC timeshare. Many of them are foreigners who may be having flings at WDW as a way of getting money out of their own economically godforsaken heck-hole of a country and enjoy some of it abroad.

One big factor related to inflation is that only idiots save money, because inflation based on a credit bubble means low interest rates on investments, generally lower than (actual) inflation. People are more likely to spend $10k on a family vacation therefore than to save it for their kids' university. Thanks to the credit bubble they can borrow what they need for university anyways!

Let's just assume that the inflation numbers are correct because the consensus among economists, analysts, government, companies, think tanks, public organizations etc. is that it is. Now you can say all those people are evil or stupid. I just won't buy it.

I won't get into your understanding of monetary policy.

I think that it goes back to what Americans really want. Their priorities. Whereas Disney used to think that they were the equivalent of a 68$ priority they've found that they're really a 105$ priority. More American's also are willing to spend the money on WDW vacations. It's hard to categorically deny that a large segment of the population is better then ever before. Also Orlando has become a considerbly stronger destination in recent years. DVC lockin could also have an effect.

Tourism from Europe and Latin America has grown. I just don't think they're the only segment that has.

Tying increased vacation spending with people taking their money out banks because they're afraid of inflation is a stretch. Why wouldn't they just put their money into stocks, bonds, or funds? I feel like that is not the primary driver...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Most "wealth" in the modern world has no actual value...

I started reading alot of economics and consumer research after the real estate bubble...that event represented a turning point in the US economy...

It became so apparent after awhile I had to stop and just hide under the covers.

Do you trust the stock market? Really?
The first time I saw a gain or hold on a daily price when a company announced huge quarterly losses...it looked like gonzo on waterskis

 

[DDLand]

Most "wealth" in the modern world has no actual value...

I started reading alot of economics and consumer research after the real estate bubble...that event represented a turning point in the US economy...

It became so apparent after awhile I had to stop and just hide under the covers.

Do you trust the stock market? Really?
The first time I saw a gain or hold on a daily price when a company announced huge quarterly losses...it looked like gonzo on waterskis

Value is based solely on what others are willing to pay for a good or service. You may not see value in something. Others may.

You might not have seen value in buying GM shares in the lead up to the recession. That would've been a good call. You could've just as easily not seen value in buying Apple shares in the lead up to the iPhone release. A bad call. Both are risks. The rewards can be incredible gain or terrible loss.

It's the game.

Command economies have tried to place a government's perceived value on goods and services, and we saw how that went (not well).

I trust free markets operating in a well regulated environment to make the best decisions. Sometimes they're wrong. (08) Sometimes they're right. (Today) Looking at the big picture as our economy continues to enjoy success unprecedented in human history, I'm fairly content right now.

Not to say there aren't risks. There are.

 

[Cormoran]

Though that argument about fewer attractions is weak. We've gotten 4 new E Tickets, several new Ds, and great new themed areas. The product is better then it was before. Now the value is worse...

So you qualify "new" as being built since 2001. Personally, I don't think of TSMM, EE, or MS as being new attractions.

I think D is trying to avoid spending more on improvements at WDW, because of all the money spent on MDE. It's interesting that this article says MDE/MM cost $ 1 billion, but most cost estimates that I've seen are closer to $1.5 Billion. I know the public will never know the true costs.

 

[DDLand]

Adjusted for inflation, the $48 gate price in 2001 should have risen to $63.34 - meaning that ticket prices are rising at 3x the ra

So you qualify "new" as being built since 2001. Personally, I don't think of TSMM, EE, or MS as being new attractions.

Yeah, I was just using his definition.

The product is irrefutably better then 2001. The value per dollar is worse. The product is better.

MDE likely was a factor. I think that's a given. I think equally and perhaps an even greater reason is the $800,000,000 in Shanghai. Do we think that money came from nowhere? Nope. Does a theme park that is receiving an arguably generous expansion budget in no critical need of the money a candidate for budget robbery? I think so. Especially because Iger wants to use some of that Star Wars budget on new VII based attractions. Waiting was okay.

 

[rteetz]

Yeah, I was just using his definition.

The product is irrefutably better then 2001. The value per dollar is worse. The product is better.

MDE likely was a factor. I think that's a given. I think equally and perhaps an even greater reason is the $800,000,000 in Shanghai. Do we think that money came from nowhere? Nope. Does a theme park that is receiving an arguably generous expansion budget in no critical need of the money a candidate for budget robbery? I think so. Especially because Iger wants to use some of that Star Wars budget on new VII based attractions.

You should add into account the amount of things that have closed or gone away since that time as well. With that added in I don't think it nessecarily makes the product better.

 

[rteetz]

So you qualify "new" as being built since 2001. Personally, I don't think of TSMM, EE, or MS as being new attractions.

I think D is trying to avoid spending more on improvements at WDW, because of all the money spent on MDE. It's interesting that this article says MDE/MM cost $ 1 billion, but most cost estimates that I've seen are closer to $1.5 Billion. I know the public will never know the true costs.

I've actually seen estimates of 2 billion

 

[DDLand]

You should add into account the amount of things that have closed or gone away since that time as well. With that added in I don't think it nessecarily makes the product better.

NF, Everest, Soarin, TSMM, and Wishes are undeniably net positives. We lost some Fantasyland attractions, food rocks, Norway, Mexico ride, backlot, Camp Minnie Mickey, and few other things. Not too major.

I'll take WDW of today over Disney of 2001.

 

[rteetz]

NF, Everest, Soarin, TSMM, and Wishes are undeniably net positives. We lost some Fantasyland attractions, food rocks, Norway, Mexico ride, backlot, Camp Minnie Mickey, and few other things. Not too major.

I'll take WDW of today over Disney of 2001.

As a 4 year old I found disney 2001 plenty enjoyable

Those things we lost are still notable

 

[DDLand]

Yeah, me too. I just find WDW of today better.

Just marginal compared to Everest, Soarin, and Mission Space.

The Norway and Mexico rides are the really big losses. That's really it. SWSA adventure still exists at DL and MT is a more then worthy replacement.

 

[Cormoran]

I've actually seen estimates of 2 billion

Same here, but if I say that I usually get blasted by someone telling me this is an exaggeration. Personally, I think the $2 billion is more accurate, and it also reinforces my opinion that this article is an advertisement rather than a substantive piece of journalism.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

NF, Everest, Soarin, TSMM, and Wishes are undeniably net positives. We lost some Fantasyland attractions, food rocks, Norway, Mexico ride, backlot, Camp Minnie Mickey, and few other things. Not too major.

I'll take WDW of today over Disney of 2001.

Wow...how do those Cherries taste?

Since 1999...they have closed discovery island, river country, pleasure island, shuttered one EPCOT pavilion, all but gave up on innoventions, stripped what was once the best pavilion and never corrected the mistakes.

And not to mention the state of studios and the lack of dedication to animal kingdom in that time period.


I'm sorry...they are not better. DVC is "better"...some areas like several new small scale food and bevs in EPCOT are better...

They have higher prices and higher attendance...that is not proof of better.

Laisse faire and the customers are not always right. They are absolutely wrong here. It's clouded by the reputation and world class spin of the D.

The lemming effect.

 

[jade1]

Since 1999...they have closed discovery island, river country, pleasure island, shuttered one EPCOT pavilion, all but gave up on innoventions, stripped what was once the best pavilion and never corrected the mistakes.
.

Wouldn't trade even 7DMT for all of that.

 

[clsteve]

Wouldn't trade even 7DMT for all of that.

The Colonel is disappointed in your statement.

And says no "Kungaloosh....!!" for you