How often do you have to go to make DVC worth it?

[crisi]

Note that if you intend to use points at Grand Californian, you need to own there. ESPECIALLY if you are looking at going around Christmas. Its a very small resort, its the only place to use points at Disneyland or the West Coast, and its very difficult to book at the seven month window.

There are other availability issues you should research to make sure its a good deal for you, but that one sticks out from what you said you intend to do.

 

[crisi]

I guess I look at it from a different angle. If you are paying $5K just for the room each trip in 5 years that's $25K. For that you could buy a 300 point contract at BWV and go for 10 nights every year until 2042. Other resorts have longer on the contracts and lower MFs. Of course you have to factor in the yearly MFs (which are quite high at BWV) but you will have a 1 bedroom (double the square footage of a regular hotel room) with a full kitchen, a whirlpool tub and a washer/dryer. Definitely a quality of life situation.

If you know you are going next year you could put the money you would spend on the rooms toward a purchase and start getting your money's worth right away.

You will pay almost $2000 a year in dues - and that will go up every year. So it isn't five years - its something more than that. Although its likely that the room cost will also increase over those years - which is why these sorts of calculations are never firm. If you ignore both inflation AND time value of money (dues and resort costs don't increase, your $25k is worth tomorrow what it is today), you end up with:

DVC Ownership Year 1 - $27k
Year 2 (+ 2k in dues, - 5 k in resort savings) -$24k
Year 3 (same) -$21k
Year 4 -$18k
Year 5 -$15k
Year 6 -$13k
Year 7 -$10k
Year 8 -$7k
Year 9 -$4k
Year 10 -$3k
Year eleven - save $2k.
Year twelve - save $5k......

 

[harbin]

Thanks again for all the replies! The math makes my head spin! I definitely have a lot more research to do before taking the plunge. You guys have given me great information to mull over and I really appreciate it!

 

[crisi]

You will pay almost $2000 a year in dues - and that will go up every year. So it isn't five years - its something more than that. Although its likely that the room cost will also increase over those years - which is why these sorts of calculations are never firm. If you ignore both inflation AND time value of money (dues and resort costs don't increase, your $25k is worth tomorrow what it is today), you end up with:

DVC Ownership Year 1 - $27k
Year 2 (+ 2k in dues, - 5 k in resort savings) -$24k
Year 3 (same) -$21k
Year 4 -$18k
Year 5 -$15k
Year 6 -$13k
Year 7 -$10k
Year 8 -$7k
Year 9 -$4k
Year 10 -$3k
Year eleven - save $2k.
Year twelve - save $5k......

This also assumes you are talking room only. It ignores risk - the risk that your vacation habits will change (with kids it isn't uncommon for teenagers to get bored of Disney - there aren't a lot of big rides - my son prefers a beach, my daughter museums - they are teens). Or that if you didn't own you'd skip years or save money one year with an offsite stay. It doesn't account for any deals you might get - like "free dining" - which wouldn't be available when staying on points. It doesn't include resale value - if you can sell in year 8 for $20k, you'll have come out ahead. It doesn't include psychological factors or changes to habits "we don't have a room bill, lets book a fireworks cruise" or "we have a kitchen, lets eat in the room." Possibly most importantly, its room only - since we've owned, tickets, food and airfare have all gotten much more expensive - we've locked in our room costs (more or less, dues go up, but not much), but we can't control airfare and park ticket costs - and once we had four Disney adults, park ticket costs became a much bigger deal.

My own belief is that if you need the math to work financially, DVC isn't for you. Look at the offering - warts and all - and decide if its a good VALUE - if you want the timeshare experience over the resort experience. And if you are likely to continue to want that for five to seven years - beyond that Disney and life changes too much to see very clearly. Then ask if you can afford to "lose" your "investment" in DVC. If you think you want the DVC experience for the next five years or so, and you can afford the risk - go for it.

 

[PacoDF]

My own belief is that if you need the math to work financially, DVC isn't for you. Look at the offering - warts and all - and decide if its a good VALUE - if you want the timeshare experience over the resort experience. And if you are likely to continue to want that for five to seven years - beyond that Disney and life changes too much to see very clearly. Then ask if you can afford to "lose" your "investment" in DVC. If you think you want the DVC experience for the next five years or so, and you can afford the risk - go for it.

I agree.

We did our homework and we did check that the finances makes sense, not with the purpose of saving money, but trying to get more value for our already allocated "Disney vacation money" . For us, DVC will help us to enjoy better Disney vacations, not cheaper ones.

 

[bakerworld]

We bought only after we started going multiple times with in a year, several years in a row and then started staying exclusively at deluxe level venues.

The last part was the 'straw' as I actually prefer the regular hotel pkgs over DVC with no housekeeping and worn rooms. Plus we found that we were upgraded a lot with the deluxe pkgs - something that doesn't happen with DVC (if anything, we keep having to return to get a non-HA room).

 

[skier_pete]

This also assumes you are talking room only. It ignores risk - the risk that your vacation habits will change (with kids it isn't uncommon for teenagers to get bored of Disney - there aren't a lot of big rides - my son prefers a beach, my daughter museums - they are teens). Or that if you didn't own you'd skip years or save money one year with an offsite stay. It doesn't account for any deals you might get - like "free dining" - which wouldn't be available when staying on points. It doesn't include resale value - if you can sell in year 8 for $20k, you'll have come out ahead. It doesn't include psychological factors or changes to habits "we don't have a room bill, lets book a fireworks cruise" or "we have a kitchen, lets eat in the room." Possibly most importantly, its room only - since we've owned, tickets, food and airfare have all gotten much more expensive - we've locked in our room costs (more or less, dues go up, but not much), but we can't control airfare and park ticket costs - and once we had four Disney adults, park ticket costs became a much bigger deal.

My own belief is that if you need the math to work financially, DVC isn't for you. Look at the offering - warts and all - and decide if its a good VALUE - if you want the timeshare experience over the resort experience. And if you are likely to continue to want that for five to seven years - beyond that Disney and life changes too much to see very clearly. Then ask if you can afford to "lose" your "investment" in DVC. If you think you want the DVC experience for the next five years or so, and you can afford the risk - go for it.

I agree with much of your points in the first paragraph, but don't get your statement about "and once we had four Disney adults, park ticket costs became a much bigger deal". The difference in park ticket costs are barely anything (it's about $20 more for an adult versus kid). Now include FOOD in there its another story.

I disagree with the philosphy of if you need the math to work for you DVC isn't for you. I think most of us need it to make sense financially. Sure there's factors that are hard to take into account as you correctly assess. And it's certainly based on a predictive measure (how often you are going in the future) but that has to be part of the plan. We've gone almost every year since 2006, and plan on going in 2015 and 2016. We like going with our daughter, but don't plan on stopping when she's grown up. Predictively, we think we will continue to use it for a long time, and long-term it DOES make sense. (As I said previously, we calculated 10-12 years but there's a lot of factors that can effect that.) But, I think the OP does need to look at the money. That's the MAIN reason to do it.

 

[rpk1951]

I think instead of years staying, you need to look at rooms used. For example if you borrow points and take married kids with you, the payback may be shorter in years. In the end I think, if you go at least every other year, have the money to but VS finance, and really enjoy Disney it is a good use of funds.

 

[crisi]

I agree with much of your points in the first paragraph, but don't get your statement about "and once we had four Disney adults, park ticket costs became a much bigger deal". The difference in park ticket costs are barely anything (it's about $20 more for an adult versus kid). Now include FOOD in there its another story.

I disagree with the philosphy of if you need the math to work for you DVC isn't for you. I think most of us need it to make sense financially. Sure there's factors that are hard to take into account as you correctly assess. And it's certainly based on a predictive measure (how often you are going in the future) but that has to be part of the plan. We've gone almost every year since 2006, and plan on going in 2015 and 2016. We like going with our daughter, but don't plan on stopping when she's grown up. Predictively, we think we will continue to use it for a long time, and long-term it DOES make sense. (As I said previously, we calculated 10-12 years but there's a lot of factors that can effect that.) But, I think the OP does need to look at the money. That's the MAIN reason to do it.

Is it? When my kids turned ten, it added about $500 to the trip - but that was five years ago and Disney has done many price adjustments since then. Including, apparently, bringing child prices more in line with adult pricing.

And by "needing to make sense financially" I mean that if it doesn't make sense financially you can't afford to do it. In other words, if you do the math and say "we will save $100 a year" and "if we spent $100 more a year with DVC, then it adds too much to our vacation budget" - you can't afford it. It may cost you a little more (with changes to travel patterns) - it may cost you a little less (with disciplined use). But if you NEED to break even on it, you don't have the cushion to invest in a luxury purchase like a timeshare. I've seen people do incredible mathematical gymnastics to justify the purchase, if you need to do that - rent points, stay offsite, or keep doing what you are doing. Because the one year you end up cancelling a trip late in the use year because someone broke a leg and then can't use the points, you are sunk on your break even calculations.

 

[DisKneeDad]

Is it? When my kids turned ten, it added about $500 to the trip - but that was five years ago and Disney has done many price adjustments since then. Including, apparently, bringing child prices more in line with adult pricing.

And by "needing to make sense financially" I mean that if it doesn't make sense financially you can't afford to do it. In other words, if you do the math and say "we will save $100 a year" and "if we spent $100 more a year with DVC, then it adds too much to our vacation budget" - you can't afford it. It may cost you a little more (with changes to travel patterns) - it may cost you a little less (with disciplined use). But if you NEED to break even on it, you don't have the cushion to invest in a luxury purchase like a timeshare. I've seen people do incredible mathematical gymnastics to justify the purchase, if you need to do that - rent points, stay offsite, or keep doing what you are doing. Because the one year you end up cancelling a trip late in the use year because someone broke a leg and then can't use the points, you are sunk on your break even calculations.

Frankly, I'm surprised Disney doesn't charge MORE for a kids ticket than adult by now.

 

[bakerworld]

We're purchasing APs w/ DVC discount and we'll get 4 trips out of them for a total of 22 nights which works out to $46 a day or $23/per day/per person. I think that's reasonable. It will encompass 2 years worth of vacations.

How inexpensive do you want the tickets to be?

 

[crisi]

We're purchasing APs w/ DVC discount and we'll get 4 trips out of them for a total of 22 nights which works out to $46 a day or $23/per day/per person. I think that's reasonable. It will encompass 2 years worth of vacations.

How cheap do you want the tickets to be?

I don't really want them to be cheap - we only go for four or five days every other year - that is about as much time as we spend - as to the money - its immaterial to us. I'm just saying that tickets are a considerable expense in the scope of a Disney vacation - one that goes up over time and is not controlled by a DVC purchase.

 

[DisKneeDad]

We're purchasing APs w/ DVC discount and we'll get 4 trips out of them for a total of 22 nights which works out to $46 a day or $23/per day/per person. I think that's reasonable. It will encompass 2 years worth of vacations.

How inexpensive do you want the tickets to be?

We're doing almost the same. 4 trips but only 16 nights total. Works out to about $31 a day.

 

[DisKneeDad]

I don't really want them to be cheap - we only go for four or five days every other year - that is about as much time as we spend - as to the money - its immaterial to us. I'm just saying that tickets are a considerable expense in the scope of a Disney vacation - one that goes up over time and is not controlled by a DVC purchase.

Well, in the case of the AP discount, one could argue that it is SOMEWHAT controlled by the DVC purchase. However, given your travelling habits, it would not apply to you.

 

[skier_pete]

We similarly plan on taking advantage of APs and planning trips across two years but one calendar year. (August 2015 and Feb or April 2016.) Hopefully they'll have another good deal on APs next spring.

 

[crisi]

Well, in the case of the AP discount, one could argue that it is SOMEWHAT controlled by the DVC purchase. However, given your travelling habits, it would not apply to you.

ONLY as long as Disney retains the DVC discount perk. And there is no guarantee that will last forever.

When we bought, the discount was on the length of stay passes - which did work great for us. But perks change over time. For those that bought back in the beginning, there were free tickets involved.

 

[bakerworld]

I don't really want them to be cheap - we only go for four or five days every other year - that is about as much time as we spend - as to the money - its immaterial to us. I'm just saying that tickets are a considerable expense in the scope of a Disney vacation - one that goes up over time and is not controlled by a DVC purchase.

This is very confusing to me - because you're tired of Disney (as I've read elsewhere that you want to sell but promised somebody with a child you'd hold on the membership)?

Why not sell and pay for the family's vacation a few years down the road?

Seems like such a waste of $$$.

 

[crisi]

This is very confusing to me - because you're tired of Disney (as I've read elsewhere that you want to sell but promised somebody with a child you'd hold on the membership)?

Why not sell and pay for the family's vacation a few years down the road?

Seems like such a waste of $$$.

Why should we sell? We only HAVE enough points to go every other year - last time we stayed in a Grand Villa to use up our points - it was a very nice way to vacation for four nights. We don't need the money we'd get from selling right now. After the vacation for our friends kid, our daughter will be college age - she'd like to use it (my son won't), and after that we might choose to use it to get out of the Minnesota Winter - not necessarily for the parks, but because Florida, Hawaii or South Carolina in January will be less snowy than Minnesota. Or maybe not and we will sell - we will see. If we don't use it, our dues can be paid for pretty easily renting through David's.

 

[bakerworld]

Why should we sell? We only HAVE enough points to go every other year - last time we stayed in a Grand Villa to use up our points - it was a very nice way to vacation for four nights. We don't need the money we'd get from selling right now. After the vacation for our friends kid, our daughter will be college age - she'd like to use it (my son won't), and after that we might choose to use it to get out of the Minnesota Winter - not necessarily for the parks, but because Florida, Hawaii or South Carolina in January will be less snowy than Minnesota. Or maybe not and we will sell - we will see. If we don't use it, our dues can be paid for pretty easily renting through David's.

makes sense & nice to hear - sometimes not sure you even like Disney but you're right, FL is better than MN during winter. FYI ... my sister bought a 2BR beach front at ST. Petes for $2K - annual dues $450 - very tempting to jump on that.

 

[DisKneeDad]

ONLY as long as Disney retains the DVC discount perk. And there is no guarantee that will last forever.

When we bought, the discount was on the length of stay passes - which did work great for us. But perks change over time. For those that bought back in the beginning, there were free tickets involved.

Yeah, I can only speak for what is in place now. I can't predict the future.