Why I Am Skeptical of the Touring Plans Website DLR Crowd Calendar

[HydroGuy]

A number of regulars around here have expressed some skepticism of the TP crowd calendar for DLR. I am a subscriber for both DLR and WDW and for DLR there always seems to be something off about their calendars.

I am going to visit DLR Thanksgiving week this year for just a day trip and decided to check their calendar. I found out that of the two days I am considering going both are ranked as "10" for the resort as a whole on a scale from 1-10. FWIW, TP gives a rank to each park and then a resort combined rank.

Out of curiosity I checked the historical ranking of the three days we visited in August this year and two days were 10s and one was a 9. Those days did not seem especially crowded to me based on experience I had over past summers. It seemed strange they were ranked so high. I would have said they were more like an 8.

Out of further curiosity I checked all days ranked 10 this year. Here is what I found:

Jan - 3
Feb - 2
Mar - 5
Apr - 3
May - 1
Jun - 2
Jul - 15
Aug - 8
Sep - 0
Oct - 3

That is 42 total days ranked as a 10 for this year up to today. Looking at their projections for Nov-Dec I found:

Nov - 6
Dec - 8

So TP is projecting 56 total days this year as days of 10 level crowds. How do they define a 10? Here is what they say:

Sorting The Marbles

The Crowd Calendar is based on a percentile rank (for more on its genesis, read here).

Imagine you have a box of 100 marbles of different sizes. If you sort the marbles from smallest to largest you can divide them into ten groups of ten, according to size. The largest ten marbles get put into Group Ten. The next ten largest get put into Group Nine, etc.

In our case, we are sorting all the possible crowd sizes at the Disneyland Resort into ten groups. The highest ten percent get a rank of ten; the next highest ten percent get a rank of nine, etc.

What that means is that with 365 days in the year there will be 36.5 days ranked as a 10, 36.5 days as a 9, and so on. In other words 10% of all days in a year will be a 10 and 10% a 9.

But TP has 56 days ranked as a 10 - or over 15% of all days at DLR.

Since I apparently have a lot of spare time on my hands I checked the number of days ranked as a 9.

So far this year there have been 59 days ranked as a 9 - this is historical data and not projection - plus another 7 days in Nov-Dec projected to be a 9. That is 66 days ranked as a 9 or over 18% of all DLR days.

In other words TP ranks 33% of all DLR days as a 9 or a 10 although it should only be 20%. No wonder their rankings seem off so often. A 9 or 10 day at DLR happens once every third day.

Until TP can present their data in a way that is consistent with their own definitions I will continue to advise folks to ignore their crowd calendars as they are virtually meaningless and not helpful in trip planning.

 

[ddwlms]

You obviously have a "math" brain. I love it! Your analysis seems like something I'd do. (she says this as she takes a break from wonderful world of Excel, pivot tables and LOOKUPs)

 

[PHXscuba]

I read something about TP recently revising their WDW prediction numbers and how they calculate/assign them, so I wonder if/when they will apply that algorithm to DLR.

I found the TP app Lines to be somewhat helpful for WDW, but almost useless for DL last spring. I think the crowd calendar numbers might have value in conveying the relative crowded-ness of one day vs. another near it, but little value as an overall "feels like" number.

The uselessness of Lines and TP's lack of sample plans for DL and DCA -- fewer total for the whole resort than the number of plans for "families with small children at MK" -- were big factors in letting my subscription lapse. Also, when I complained about the lack of plans their only response was to tell me to build a custom plan.

So I might get TP again if we go back to WDW -- I think they focus much more on Florida than California.

PHXscuba

 

[asunutgirl]

I asked them once about the touring plans for DLR and they told me that most of their customer base is for WDW. That being said, we still use their app in the park and find it very helpful.

I'd love to see them come up with a touring plan for WDW for those of us DLR veterans and vise versa. (You know - don't do this attraction at WDW because it's the same as at DLR or something like that.)

 

[Sherry E]

I've had my doubts about TP for a long time. In my Superthreads for Halloween Time and the Holiday Season, people have occasionally posted that TP says that such-and-such day will be a 9 or a 3 or whatever. Often times I know for a fact that those numbers are not accurate because I have either been in the parks at the same time and have seen something to the contrary, or those ratings are not factoring in certain events that have come up in the last year -- or enough other folks have reported back with similar stories about their experiences over certain dates to contradict TP.

For what it's worth, the general consensus seems to agree that the week before Thanksgiving week is somewhat lacking in huge crowds. Thanksgiving week picks up quite a bit as more people pile into the parks for week-long vacations, but there are still folks who visit for Thanksgiving every year without fail -- and they love it. Then, supposedly the Sunday after Thanksgiving is wonderful, as crowds empty out and head back to work/school.

After that begins the brief, golden window of time -- otherwise known as the first 2 weeks in December -- in which crowds are lower than they would be in the second half of December, but there is a full roster of holiday entertainment and the full array of decorations all over DLR. This is a golden window of time as it is between Thanksgiving break and Christmas break, and not as many folks are out of work and school so soon after Thanksgiving.

I have noticed that Mondays seem to be less crowded than Tuesdays during the holiday season at DLR, on more than one occasion. I don't know if that will apply to Thanksgiving week as well.

 

[Blue32]

Hydroguy--- I think I've seen you and some other people post on the boards about the usefulness of the Lines app for DLR. I am wondering if you still used this on your last trip and what you think of it now? I have read some people really like Lines for wait times.

If they can predict wait times with a certain amount of accuracy, why would their calendars be so out of wack? I thought their calendars were also based on wait times for attractions. Just curious to know your thoughts....

 

[HydroGuy]

Hydroguy--- I think I've seen you and some other people post on the boards about the usefulness of the Lines app for DLR. I am wondering if you still used this on your last trip and what you think of it now? I have read some people really like Lines for wait times.

If they can predict wait times with a certain amount of accuracy, why would their calendars be so out of wack? I thought their calendars were also based on wait times for attractions. Just curious to know your thoughts....

I do like the Lines app and it is my understanding that Lines uses feedback from guests in the parks that day to modify its predictions. So Lines has a more real time aspect to it whereas the crowd calendar does not.

 

[PHXscuba]

Hydroguy--- I think I've seen you and some other people post on the boards about the usefulness of the Lines app for DLR. I am wondering if you still used this on your last trip and what you think of it now? I have read some people really like Lines for wait times.

If they can predict wait times with a certain amount of accuracy, why would their calendars be so out of wack? I thought their calendars were also based on wait times for attractions. Just curious to know your thoughts....

I do like the Lines app and it is my understanding that Lines uses feedback from guests in the parks that day to modify its predictions. So Lines has a more real time aspect to it whereas the crowd calendar does not.

The biggest problem I found with the Lines app was that there were so few users that the app didn't have enough data to estimate with. For example, when we rode Toy Story Mania an hour after DCA park opening, Lines was telling me it should be a 10 minute wait, despite it being obviously a 30-40 minute wait from looking at the line and the posted 40-minute wait time. I entered the posted time of 40 minutes into the app and a minute later it updated to say the new estimate was now 25 minutes! So one user (right or wrong) can skew the results a lot! It's a chicken-and-egg problem -- few use the app, so the times aren't accurate, so few use the app. My results seemed better at WDW because the user pool is much greater, and they have longer historical data rather than a year-plus for new DCA.

PHXscuba

 

[Girimama33]

I agree that the lines app, when it comes to ride wait times, is alright, but they are horrendously wrong when it ones to the Crowd Calendar...I think that is what HydroGuy is trying to point out.
Thank you HydroGuy for confirming what I suspected!

 

[wiigirl]

You obviously have a "math" brain. I love it! Your analysis seems like something I'd do. (she says this as she takes a break from wonderful world of Excel, pivot tables and LOOKUPs)

 

[patty57]

I'm a WDW girl, as we live on the East Coast. I'm toying with the idea of a DL trip in May, and decided to take a peek at TouringPlans crowd calendar for May since I have a subscription. I didn't realize that my WDW subscription wouldn't cover DL. I would need to pay for a DL subscription. Nope. Not gonna happen. TouringPlans crowd calendars have been lousy for WDW for awhile. I have used Josh's calendars at EasyWDW for my last two trips. It looks like TouringPlans changes to their WDW crowd calendars are most likely based on the fact that Josh's are much more accurate.

 

[mom2rtk]

I'm a WDW girl, as we live on the East Coast. I'm toying with the idea of a DL trip in May, and decided to take a peek at TouringPlans crowd calendar for May since I have a subscription. I didn't realize that my WDW subscription wouldn't cover DL. I would need to pay for a DL subscription. Nope. Not gonna happen. TouringPlans crowd calendars have been lousy for WDW for awhile. I have used Josh's calendars at EasyWDW for my last two trips. It looks like TouringPlans changes to their WDW crowd calendars are most likely based on the fact that Josh's are much more accurate.

Yeah, I really wish there was a west coast equivalent of EasyWDW. And Kennythepirate for character hunters.

 

[PHXscuba]

I started reading the easyWDW site when I was planning our WDW trip a couple years ago ... now I just read it because it's funny and I get a "sense" of what WDW looks like on average days. Wish we had one like it for DLR too. The closest thing I've found are the Micechat and Allears "around the park" columns that run weekly or so. They're informative but lack that unique Josh humor.

PHXscuba

 

[karylrocks]

Another great discussion topic introduced by HydroGuy.

I am new to TP and am working on a trip for Dec. 1-2. It ranks 12/1 (Sunday) as a 10, and 12/2 (Monday) as a 1. Understandably, Monday should be less crowded than Sunday of a holiday weekend, but that seems quite extreme to me. I compared the wait times for Monday to those in Ridemax, and TP is showing nothing more than 10 minutes for anything all day at Disneyland, while RM shows up to 20 or 25. Not bad either way, but important for me to know which is more accurate since I am planning a trip for a family with only one day in each park and I want to maximize their time.

 

[JazzyCatsAtDLR]

Thanks, HydroGuy! I have the math skills of a first grader, so I appreciate this.

Do you find that crowds are usually higher or lower than what they predict? I'm going in January, and the Monday is a 5, then Tuesday is 6, then the rest of the days are fives. This is the week of the 13th. What do you think?

 

[kathy884]

The main thing that we use Touring plans for are their touring plans. The crowd calendar and line app aren't things we really use that much if at all. We have found the premium touring plans and customized ones we're done to be really helpful for us at WDW in terms of saving time in lines, making it really easy to tour (order of rides and when to get and use fastpasses) and have used these in the WDW park on every trip we've had down there since the late 80s. We are tied to the school calendar, meaning trips and/or mini trips are usually peak times.// Any thoughts on their touringplans for DLR? That seems to be their claim to fame and usually in WDW their recommendations work extremely well and are much more efficient that what would have come up with on my own. I also enjoy the author ratings of attractions and survey ratings of attractions by age group. It's one of several factors we use in determining what attractions to do.

 

[HydroGuy]

Another great discussion topic introduced by HydroGuy.

I am new to TP and am working on a trip for Dec. 1-2. It ranks 12/1 (Sunday) as a 10, and 12/2 (Monday) as a 1. Understandably, Monday should be less crowded than Sunday of a holiday weekend, but that seems quite extreme to me. I compared the wait times for Monday to those in Ridemax, and TP is showing nothing more than 10 minutes for anything all day at Disneyland, while RM shows up to 20 or 25. Not bad either way, but important for me to know which is more accurate since I am planning a trip for a family with only one day in each park and I want to maximize their time.

Not sure what to tell you here. In my experience TP tries hard to tell you exactly what the wait time will be. RM tries to error on the side of predicted wait times longer than reality - with their goal being to make sure you actually get on the ride.

 

[HydroGuy]

Thanks, HydroGuy! I have the math skills of a first grader, so I appreciate this.

Do you find that crowds are usually higher or lower than what they predict? I'm going in January, and the Monday is a 5, then Tuesday is 6, then the rest of the days are fives. This is the week of the 13th. What do you think?

That is not really a good question because I usually go during high season times and they are grossly overstating how many days are 9s and 10s. So for me the crowds are lower than they predict.

But further they do not seem to understand the trends at DLR and they can underpredict.

For example, in 2012 everyone and his brother knew crowds would go through the roof in December when DCA opened CarsLand and Buena Vista Street in mid-June. I remember TP predicting moderate June crowds for those dates when everyone else knew that would be wrong.

Then one day they realized they were grossly incorrect and then just changed every day the rest of the summer to a 10 - even though only 36 days a year can be a 10. There was no statistical analysis at all. Just a pure "hey it is going to be really busy in the summer of 2012". Which is something anyone here on the forum could have told you for free.

Bottom line is I do not want to try to interpret what the TP "9" or "10" or "5" means. I think they are randomly off and do not have enough data or DLR knowledge or care enough about DLR compared to WDW that their crowd predictions mean anything.

This week I will be at DLR on Frirday or Saturday - both predicted to be "10 crowds", and even if the weather is good I really doubt it will be anything like a 10. Busy and crowded? Yes, some. But wall to wall people where you can't move? I doubt it.

 

[HydroGuy]

The main thing that we use Touring plans for are their touring plans. The crowd calendar and line app aren't things we really use that much if at all. We have found the premium touring plans and customized ones we're done to be really helpful for us at WDW in terms of saving time in lines, making it really easy to tour (order of rides and when to get and use fastpasses) and have used these in the WDW park on every trip we've had down there since the late 80s. We are tied to the school calendar, meaning trips and/or mini trips are usually peak times.// Any thoughts on their touringplans for DLR? That seems to be their claim to fame and usually in WDW their recommendations work extremely well and are much more efficient that what would have come up with on my own. I also enjoy the author ratings of attractions and survey ratings of attractions by age group. It's one of several factors we use in determining what attractions to do.

I have not used their actual touring plans for DLR- or WDW for that matter. I more try to use their wait time data and Lines app to give me some help in making my own touring decisions.

 

[pixar mark]

I'm an engineer and a lover of math, so I appreciate your study of this. You have unquestionably proven that a TP 9 and 10 cannot mean what they have defined it to mean. However, you admit that some of those days that were labeled as 9's or 10's were probably 8's. If I'm planning, I really only care about large differences between say a 3 and an 8. I really don't care about small differences like an 8 vs. a 9. If they are getting within 10% of the right number, I still say there is value in that. Nobody is going to say, "I'm was going to go to the park if it was an 8, but I'm staying home because it's a 9."

You also don't really provide any proof that the data isn't correct with respect to relativity on a short term. For instance, I'm going to be in SoCal for 10 days, but only going to DL for 5. To me, I care more about which of those 5 are the lowest 5 days, and less about whether those days are 5's, 7's or whatever. If they help me correctly choose the best 5 days, the site has done it's job.

Now while you haven't disproved these things, I suppose they also haven not been proven true by any study either. It's kind of a hard thing to quantify either way, given that Disney doesn't release turnstile numbers and ride wait times for certain rides can fluctuate for lots of non-attendance reasons. Also, given that you proved there was one flaw in their method, one could assume the rest of their analysis could be equally flawed. So I guess my takeaway is that your finding is interesting and there is reason to be skeptical of TP's numbers. But given few if any other superior predictive sites out there, I would still use them over going blind, especially for someone like me who does not have the number of trips under his belt like you do.