So whats the conventional wisdom

[kenspidey]

With all this ROFR activity and prices on the rise should a buyer just wait it out ... Will prices return to normal after a few months?

 

[disneynutz]

Unknown, IMO DVD/DVC is in flux reinventing itself after losing 2 head executives in the last year and a half. They are beefing up their sales call centers and seem to not be in a rush to complete VGF.

They have also raised their prices and revamped their interest schedule while advertising the older resorts. Seems like a marketing shift.

Bill

 

[bobbiwoz]

I think it's a good time to sell BWV!

 

[Silver19]

I think it's a good time to sell BWV!

Sell them to meeee!

 

[bobbiwoz]

Sell them to meeee!

I do hope you get to buy a BWV contract soon.

 

[johde]

Will prices return to normal after a few months?

The question is what is "normal". For most of DVC's history, they have been fairly active in exercising their ROFR and at best you got a small discount off retail. It's only been since 2008 and the financial crisis that these "low prices" have been around.

 

[bighoo93]

With all this ROFR activity and prices on the rise should a buyer just wait it out ... Will prices return to normal after a few months?

I don't know about the conventional wisdom, but I would say buy when it makes economic sense. In honor of opening day, I'll paraphrase Yogi Berra (not sure if he really said it, but the quote is often attributed to him): Predictions are difficult to make, especially about the future. If you are ready to use a contract that you find of the right size, location, UY, and whatever other parameters you like, and the price makes economic sense, then pull the trigger. If not, then wait until you find what you are looking for. I don't see any particular reason to either jump in quickly or wait on the sidelines, it just depends on finding the right contract at the right price when you are ready to make use of it.

 

[MoreTravels]

You also have to factor in that these contracts are expiring. So many resorts have less than 30 years left. And in a few years, almost 20 years. So it is a big decline like 3% loss per year. I don't think price will stay the same. It will like drop.

 

[JimMIA]

The question is what is "normal". For most of DVC's history, they have been fairly active in exercising their ROFR and at best you got a small discount off retail. It's only been since 2008 and the financial crisis that these "low prices" have been around.

Agree. I see the current ROFR activity as more of a return to normal.

In that environment, I think two things gain increased importance:

• The DIS' ROFR thread...especially paying close attention to CURRENT price points clearing ROFR. It doesn't matter what someone paid six months ago. What matters is what will clear ROFR tomorrow.
• The knowledge, experience, and attention to detail that some brokers (certainly NOT all) bring to the table. Lazy, inattentive, unresponsive, and stupid will kill you in this environment.

Back in the good old days -- pre-2008 -- those two factors made or broke many deals. I can't tell you how many tearful threads I've read where someone got ROFR'd because they tried to squeeze the last $100 out of a deal.

Buying doesn't count unless YOU end up with the points, so I think prospective buyers should be researching much more than cheap prices and should look for solid professionalism in their broker.

 

[Dean]

With all this ROFR activity and prices on the rise should a buyer just wait it out ... Will prices return to normal after a few months?

If DVC truly makes sense for you, then I wouldn't wait. After prices increase again and GF starts selling, there may be another jump. My definition of DVC making sense is buying to use only at DVC resort (no DCL, etc) for someone that goes routinely (at least about EOY) and that values on property enough to pay for it now. I like to see either a 20% savings over what one normally spends or a 20% increased value as a minimum.

 

[dbs1228]

Agree.
[*]The DIS' ROFR thread...especially paying close attention to CURRENT price points clearing ROFR. It doesn't matter what someone paid six months ago. What matters is what will clear ROFR tomorrow.
[*]The knowledge, experience, and attention to detail that some brokers (certainly NOT all) bring to the table. Lazy, inattentive, unresponsive, and stupid will kill you in this environment.
[/LIST]

I agree with what you are saying BUT right now there is not enough current data to know what will pass! When my contract was sent BWV 55.00PP there were recent contracts that passed at 50.00 - 60.00PP and none taken that I know of that was 6 weeks ago.

People are offering more then asking and still getting ROFR'd BWV getting taken at 69.00PP and its not a loaded contract. The only data that seems kind of consistent is the completely stripped contracts going through.

I did call TSS to ask our broker what would be a good price for a 350 point BWV contract fully loaded and its listed at 60.00PP - he rambled off 5 contracts that were taken that day as high as 69.00PP maybe what I should have asked was what is passing through???

I just do not think right now there is enough data to make that decision. I really like this contract but if I have to pay 70.00 - 75.00PP I would not be buying 350 points - I will adjust with the market if the contract gets taken.

I am glad we are not going to disney until 2014 and have enough points if we borrow to get us through!

 

[disneynutz]

I agree with what you are saying BUT right now there is not enough current data to know what will pass! When my contract was sent BWV 55.00PP there were recent contracts that passed at 50.00 - 60.00PP and none taken that I know of that was 6 weeks ago.

People are offering more then asking and still getting ROFR'd BWV getting taken at 69.00PP and its not a loaded contract. The only data that seems kind of consistent is the completely stripped contracts going through.

I did call TSS to ask our broker what would be a good price for a 350 point BWV contract fully loaded and its listed at 60.00PP - he rambled off 5 contracts that were taken that day as high as 69.00PP maybe what I should have asked was what is passing through???

I just do not think right now there is enough data to make that decision. I really like this contract but if I have to pay 70.00 - 75.00PP I would not be buying 350 points - I will adjust with the market if the contract gets taken.

I am glad we are not going to disney until 2014 and have enough points if we borrow to get us through!

The point from my post from above is that DVD maybe making changes and what passed ROFR yesterday might not today or tomorrow. We don't really know where they set their threshold, how it's set or how often they change it. They can have a meeting tomorrow morning and be told to buy everything in sight.

Bill

 

[ELMC]

The point from my post from above is that DVD maybe making changes and what passed ROFR yesterday might not today or tomorrow. We don't really know where they set their threshold, how it's set or how often they change it. They can have a meeting tomorrow morning and be told to buy everything in sight.

Bill

I would suggest that they may have already had that meeting, or one very similar.

Bottom line, this is not a time to buy. I've had six contracts sent to ROFR in the past two months. Four have been taken and I'm still waiting to hear back on the other two (they'll likely be taken as well). Point is, I haven't done anything to try to replace those four...I'm not tying up my money or putting in the time or effort just to pad DVD's inventory.

 

[dbs1228]

The point from my post from above is that DVD maybe making changes and what passed ROFR yesterday might not today or tomorrow. We don't really know where they set their threshold, how it's set or how often they change it. They can have a meeting tomorrow morning and be told to buy everything in sight.

Bill

Thanks Bill I understood what you were saying my response was for JimMia he was saying for buyer to look at:

The DIS' ROFR thread...especially paying close attention to CURRENT price points clearing ROFR. It doesn't matter what someone paid six months ago. What matters is what will clear ROFR tomorrow.
The knowledge, experience, and attention to detail that some brokers (certainly NOT all) bring to the table. Lazy, inattentive, unresponsive, and stupid will kill you in this environment.

Buying doesn't count unless YOU end up with the points, so I think prospective buyers should be researching much more than cheap prices and should look for solid professionalism in their broker.

My response was just to say right now that data is not there even the most knowledgeable broker has no idea.

 

[Sandisw]

I think it's a good time to sell BWV!

Funny..I told DH the same thing....too bad I love my BWV points and am not parting with them!!

 

[bobbiwoz]

Funny..I told DH the same thing....too bad I love my BWV points and am not parting with them!!

Yes, that's the rub!. We bought them direct in 2003, $84 was the price, but discounted to $74, then added on some more, that time for $84!

 

[DenLo]

I would suggest that they may have already had that meeting, or one very similar.

Bottom line, this is not a time to buy. I've had six contracts sent to ROFR in the past two months. Four have been taken and I'm still waiting to hear back on the other two (they'll likely be taken as well). Point is, I haven't done anything to try to replace those four...I'm not tying up my money or putting in the time or effort just to pad DVD's inventory.

I disagree on that statement. It is a buyers market, not a sellers market. The prices on the resale market except for BLT, VGC and Aulani are at least half the price of a DVC direct purchase. Sure some contracts are ROFRd, but that is less than than you would think. Only OKW has had a higher percentage (28.6%) of ROFRs and the rest are less than than 10% with BCV and BWV had no ROFRs in January or February if 2013. See wdrl's thread, Percent of Resales Passing ROFR thread.

 

[bobbiwoz]

I disagree on that statement. It is a buyers market, not a sellers market. The prices on the resale market except for BLT, VGC and Aulani are at least half the price of a DVC direct purchase. Sure some contracts are ROFRd, but that is less than than you would think. Only OKW has had a higher percentage (28.6%) of ROFRs and the rest are less than than 10% with BCV and BWV had no ROFRs in January or February if 2013. See wdrl's thread, Percent of Resales Passing ROFR thread.

This thead talks about the recent activity and ROFR's are taking place left and right!

I hope that other thread has March's stats soon!

 

[Brian Noble]

I believe this is being driven by underlying economic trends. The "at-risk" or marginal ownerships have all been flushed out over the past several years, and I suspect a lower-than average turnover rate for the next little while. At the same time, there are signs that leisure travel is continuing the recovery it saw last year, and probably accelerating. This is also the peak time of year for timeshare buying demand on the secondary market.

The annual cycle will improve in very late fall or early winter, but the others are probably here for a while. Even so, the difference in prices between now and a year ago is not so prohibitive---if it was a sound purchase for you then, it probably still is now. You may need more patience to get through an extra ROFR cycle or two, but for the many thousands of dollars in savings it will probably be worthwhile.

Edited to add: yes we hear about the ROFR activity here, but even when they were much more active, plenty of contracts got through---and at random prices. Continue to offer what you think is a fair price, and be patient. You will be rewarded.

 

[DenLo]

This thead talks about the recent activity and ROFR's are taking place left and right!

I hope that other thread has March's stats soon!

I just asked Wil, my DH, and he said OCC has only posted documents through March 25. wdrl has collected the data through March 22nd but he won't update the chart until everything is complete on the OCC website and he verifies his figures. He said DVD has done 26 ROFRs through 03/22 and it is spread over OKW, SSR, BLT, VWL and BCV -- none so far for BWV.