Has Anyone Noticed The Run On Resale Contracts?

[BWV Dreamin]

I happened to peruse a few of the resale brokers listings. Wow! Never have I seen inventory so depleted! There is still a fair amount of OKW, SSR, and AKV on a couple of sites, but others like TSS are few and far between! Absolutely no inventory for Boardwalk and Wilderness Lodge. All I can say is wow....

 

[dbs1228]

Yes I have - probably because I am selling a 130 point contract (should have waited 3 weeks or so ) and currently in ROFR on a 222 BWV which will probably be taken back If I had known I probably would have offered the seller more then asking price but hindsight is another thing! Bad timing on our part we decided to buy about 6 weeks ago but been looking for about 6 months! I have seen a few contracts I would have liked if our BWV gets ROFR but they were gone within a day. Just got to wait and see but I am quite surprised how fast things are selling and the price they are selling at!

People are nervous of ROFR and are willing to pay an extra 10.00PP vs. direct prices and I am one of them!

 

[bobbiwoz]

I've noticed it. That webcast which featured specials on classic resorts did it's job. Some people are waitlisted to buy direct, and some have bought resale.

I've waiting on ROFR for BLT. The rumors of the price of Grand Floridian Villas spurred me on to try to buy the "classic" monorail resort!

 

[Brian Noble]

I suspect this has more to do with the overall market than anything else. The underlying trends are quite favorable. The recession flushed out most of the borderline owners to sell already---those who remained are likely in better financial positions and more committed to ownership, so it seems likely that supply should be back to baseline turnover levels or possibly even below them. Tourism demand is rising---leisure travel has recovered to pre-recession levels. This is also the time of year that tends to be the strongest for the timeshare resale market generally; folks are coming out of the winter "hibernation" and starting to think about travel.

We're seeing this happen throughout the timeshare segment, not just DVC. Lower supply of available inventory, slowly rising prices, etc. Every timeshare board I follow has had this discussion over the past month or so.

 

[nunzia]

MY SIL has been going back and forth about buying where I own..VGC..and finally remembered to call..the day after the huge price increase. The guide stated that the VGC waitlist was 3 pages long (I had been on this waitlist for a year before getting my direct points and also in the meantime had put in a resle bid and naturally they both came through at the same time), and that there was no way it would clear in 6 months..she told her what others had reported, that the direct lock in price was only good for 6 months and then if there are other price increases, after that time waitlist folks would be subjected to the higher price. The guide also mentioned going resale to her, which I found surprising. When I bought my resale points the going price was mid to high 90's, I paid $108. I am now seeing contracts going for $120. All of my previous VGC contracts were purchased direct for under $100 so early owners that are selling now are making a profit. I think VGC is now the highest priced DVC in the system..at $165..can't wait to see what VGF will be.

 

[Splashboat]

A couple of years ago an agent told me this is the busiest time of year because people are spending their income tax returns.

 

[Breyean]

MY SIL has been going back and forth about buying where I own..VGC..and finally remembered to call..the day after the huge price increase. The guide stated that the VGC waitlist was 3 pages long (I had been on this waitlist for a year before getting my direct points and also in the meantime had put in a resle bid and naturally they both came through at the same time), and that there was no way it would clear in 6 months..she told her what others had reported, that the direct lock in price was only good for 6 months and then if there are other price increases, after that time waitlist folks would be subjected to the higher price. The guide also mentioned going resale to her, which I found surprising. When I bought my resale points the going price was mid to high 90's, I paid $108. I am now seeing contracts going for $120. All of my previous VGC contracts were purchased direct for under $100 so early owners that are selling now are making a profit. I think VGC is now the highest priced DVC in the system..at $165..can't wait to see what VGF will be.

I read another poster's take on what the wait lists mean for ROFR in the near term, given the price increases. It was pretty interesting.

After two more buyers reported passing ROFR at VGC late last week at $93 and $95, she was wondering how Disney was passing these up with the direct price up to $165.

Then she proposed an answer - the direct price at VGC, at least for the next six months or until those who got on the list before the increase are all taken care of, is still really $130. Anything they ROFR until those locked in $130 people are sold to has to be looked at from Disney's perspective as having to make sense to flip to direct people for enough profit at the lower direct price.

This seems to make sense. The price at VGC is NOW $165, but it will probably be some time before Disney actually SELLS and COLLECTS at that price.

Still, I would think it would be in their interest to take back these low to mid $90s contracts if nothing else but to flip them to those on the list to clear them off so they could start collecting the $165 from newer names on the list, like your SIL who missed the cut off.

Almost $40/point spread is about where I was ROFR'd a couple of times a while ago, and the wait list for direct back then was no where near what it is now, so you'd think Disney turned a profit on those then, so why not now. Especially with the added benefit of moving up the $165 people to the top of the wait lists.

 

[dvc at last !]

The resales are going fast !

 

[ELMC]

I agree. Not only is this typically a higher demand time for resale contracts, but the buzz created by the webcast seems to have spilled over into the resale market as well. It's not a good time to be a buyer, but will it get better or worse in 6 months?

 

[PCMama]

I read another poster's take on what the wait lists mean for ROFR in the near term, given the price increases. It was pretty interesting.

After two more buyers reported passing ROFR at VGC late last week at $93 and $95, she was wondering how Disney was passing these up with the direct price up to $165.

Then she proposed an answer - the direct price at VGC, at least for the next six months or until those who got on the list before the increase are all taken care of, is still really $130. Anything they ROFR until those locked in $130 people are sold to has to be looked at from Disney's perspective as having to make sense to flip to direct people for enough profit at the lower direct price.

This seems to make sense. The price at VGC is NOW $165, but it will probably be some time before Disney actually SELLS and COLLECTS at that price.

Still, I would think it would be in their interest to take back these low to mid $90s contracts if nothing else but to flip them to those on the list to clear them off so they could start collecting the $165 from newer names on the list, like your SIL who missed the cut off.

Almost $40/point spread is about where I was ROFR'd a couple of times a while ago, and the wait list for direct back then was no where near what it is now, so you'd think Disney turned a profit on those then, so why not now. Especially with the added benefit of moving up the $165 people to the top of the wait lists.

Lol that might have been me.. trying to rationalize how my vgc contract at $93 ppt will pass. I put my offer in before the $165 ppt for vgc news went out and signed the contract right after it went out. I'm hoping it passes but who knows what Disney will do! So I'm trying to rationalize.. The vgc prices have been just crazy lately and I've even seen an uptick in ssr and okw prices. It's going to be a grueling two and a half more weeks for us! I'm trying to tell myself that if it doesnt happen its OKAY... Ugh!!

 

[Breyean]

Lol that might have been me.. trying to rationalize how my vgc contract at $93 ppt will pass. I put my offer in before the $165 ppt for vgc news went out and signed the contract right after it went out. I'm hoping it passes but who knows what Disney will do! So I'm trying to rationalize.. The vgc prices have been just crazy lately and I've even seen an uptick in ssr and okw prices. It's going to be a grueling two and a half more weeks for us! I'm trying to tell myself that if it doesnt happen its OKAY... Ugh!!

FWIW, two posters on another site passed late last week at $95 and $93, and I'm in closing for mine at $90, so maybe you're timing will turn out to be perfect.

I do like your theory about the immediate impact of the increases on the resale prices.

 

[PCMama]

FWIW, two posters on another site passed late last week at $95 and $93, and I'm in closing for mine at $90, so maybe you're timing will turn out to be perfect.

I do like your theory about the immediate impact of the increases on the resale prices.

I hope so. I know its out of my hands.. but man with the price increase its nerve racking lol.

 

[cbnsoul]

Just to put a little spin on things, my guide said that there is NOT a 6 month time limit for wait lists for buying direct. He stated that as long as we were on the wait list by the 20th, we were locked into that price. Obviously, this is different from what others have heard so I'm not sure which is correct but it might change Disney's perspective in relation to ROFR.

 

[elfbo]

I wast a bit confused on the 6 month price lock as well. The way my guide stated it, it was, if you get in before the 20th, you get an indefinite lock on the lower price. If I had called on the 20th, i would have only gotten a 6 month lock on the lower price.

Of course, I didnt think to ask her to clarify at the time.

 

[RobertPerrin25]

I called DVC sales last week to research buying more points direct. When I mentioned to my agent that I was considering resale market, he said that DVD was working to reclaim points for direct sale because the supply is so low. Could have just been a sales tactic but if if wasn't then maybe the opening of DVC GF will ease the resale market.

 

[ELMC]

I called DVC sales last week to research buying more points direct. When I mentioned to my agent that I was considering resale market, he said that DVD was working to reclaim points for direct sale because the supply is so low. Could have just been a sales tactic but if if wasn't then maybe the opening of DVC GF will ease the resale market.

Yes, it was a sales tactic. But recent ROFR activity suggests that it may be true as well.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I've noticed it. That webcast which featured specials on classic resorts did it's job. Some people are waitlisted to buy direct, and some have bought resale.

I've waiting on ROFR for BLT. The rumors of the price of Grand Floridian Villas spurred me on to try to buy the "classic" monorail resort!

Good luck Bobbi! I really wish DVC would come out with some informational announcement clarifying the waitlist terms and classic resort price increases. Where is the communication? I don't even recall an email introducing Claire Bilby's replacement.

Well I am surprised that so many resales are being bought. I do understand all the the factors, but still, what will happen when/if the resale restrictions are announced?

 

[nunzia]

I wast a bit confused on the 6 month price lock as well. The way my guide stated it, it was, if you get in before the 20th, you get an indefinite lock on the lower price. If I had called on the 20th, i would have only gotten a 6 month lock on the lower price.

Of course, I didnt think to ask her to clarify at the time.

I think that could be correct since I had been on the waitlist a year and was locked in..I think. My SIL called AFTER the cut off and was told about the 6 month deal.

 

[disneynutz]

Disney has a preset number where they will exercise their ROFR, only they know what it is. They don't want to hold inventory and they require X amount of profit.

Additional rumors of resale restrictions and program changes has increased resale demand with buyers wanting to be grandfathered.

Bill

 

[johnsbelt]

Has anyone done any analysis on what Disney is ROFRing? I was thinking that Disney might be more aggressive on loaded contracts because then they can sell them right away. If it is stripped, then Disney would have to wait until the contract has all of the current UY points.

I can't image a direct buyer who would wait for any amount of time before before being able to use their points. With a stripped contract, Disney would have to "find" points if they tried to resell a stripped contract.

What do the experts think about this?

John