There are three things that are absolute truths when it comes to DVC at this particular time:
1. Retail/Direct prices will continue to go up
2. Resale prices will continue to go down
3. Maintenance will go up over time
At this point in time, there is NOTHING that will change about any of those things.
There is FAR more resale points on the market right now than can be sold on a weekly basis.
There is MORE than enough retail points on the market (in DVD's hands) than can be sold even in the next year.
Those two factors alone should equal lower prices on both retail and resale - BUT DVD keeps selling more and more, so as long as they are SELLING they will keep RAISING prices slightly higher than market demand will allow them to do.
The fact that when we bought point prices were under $100 (in 2008) and they are $150+ now is absolutely ridiculous. Disney seems to have missed the memo that from 2008 to 2012 (and beyond) has been the worst sustained economic period in the history of the United Stated - yet the 50% increase came on full steam, and continues to increase every few months.
So, who thinks that the Grand Floridian Villas will hit the market at $200 per point?
Full retail for Bay Lake Tower is listed as $165pp - it's not far from $200....
Now that all of that is out there - the option to selling all and buying back later doesn't make sense at all.
The fact that the OP will owe $6,000 at closing just to make the sale is not an option at all - it makes a bad situation worse.
Renting points really makes a lot of sense - renting points CAN be profitable.
Rent half your points every year, using the money from the rental in two way - to help with the MF's - AND use the money out of pocket you would have used to pay down your loan faster!
That way, you owe less NOW and LATER!
For so many people DVC makes a lot of sense - however, when it comes down to it, if you have to finance DVC, it makes a lot LESS sense. However, the fact remains that you WILL see savings either way. So if it's money that a family would spend anyway - why not buy?
I know that DVC makes a lot of sense for us, and I know that we are saving money already - and the fact that we can invite out families to come along with us either to Hilton Head OR to WDW - it's great!