Aulani "sold-out" for May 2013?

[U2FanHfx]

Hi All,

I'm waiting for the 7 month window to open up for Aulani but I went to search the "cash" price on the public site just to compare what the usual cost would be and there are no 2 bedroom villas for the beginning of May. Does anyone know if this is just because I was using the public site or is the resort truly sold out?

Here's hoping it's not sold out!

Thanks!

 

[disneynutz]

Cash inventory has nothing to do with DVC inventory. You need to also understand that the resort is still being built so not all rooms are available.

Bill

 

[Chuck S]

Cash reervation and point reservation come from different inventories. Usually the reverse is true, there will be cash reservations available, with no point reservations.

It is possible that the cash inventory simply hasn't been added to the system yet, or that DIsney is holding back on cash inventory to allow DVC to declare units into inventory for sale.

 

[abdgeek]

Aulani is a very popular resort. This is my home resort and I stayed here in June. I booked at 11 months for a week's stay and when I went back in a couple of months later, they had sold out. It is possible, but they are adding on. Good luck.

 

[dvc_john]

There is some sort of expansion project going on from mid-September 2012 to mid-2013. (Mentioned in several other threads.)

Perhaps they haven't released May for reservations yet until they get a better handle on the expansion, and whether they might adjust room rates because of it.

 

[OrangeCountyCommuter]

There is some sort of expansion project going on from mid-September 2012 to mid-2013. (Mentioned in several other threads.)

Perhaps they haven't released May for reservations yet until they get a better handle on the expansion, and whether they might adjust room rates because of it.

You mean like they did for the GF guests during the construction of the villas

Probably trying to figure out how much they can raise rates for next summer.

 

[dvc_john]

You mean like they did for the GF guests during the construction of the villas

No. I mean that they may be trying to avoid the current situation where they are giving back 2 days worth of points to those staying on points, and cash credits to those staying on cash.

 

[OrangeCountyCommuter]

No. I mean that they may be trying to avoid the current situation where they are giving back 2 days worth of points to those staying on points, and cash credits to those staying on cash.

My coworkers staying at the GF are getting NOTHING in compensation for the current mess.

Disney hotel management lives in a world where they don't have to do the right thing.

 

[tomandrobin]

May is a very, very big month for Japanese tourist to Hawaii.

Disney is a very, very big part of Japanese culture.

I am thinking the two items above are coming together at Aulani.

 

[runmommyrun]

We are hoping for a week in early June at 7 months. Keeping our fingers crossed, but I must admit I'm nervous. This is a much more extensive trip for us from a logistics perspective than FL. Good luck to you.

 

[eva]

I hope this isn't true. We are considering 10 nights in May at the 7 night window. I hope it can happen. We will be celebrating my 50th birthday.

 

[CandyMandy]

May is a very, very big month for Japanese tourist to Hawaii.

Not is, once was. The troubled economy and rapidly aging population in Japan is having a very, very big impact on personal travel, particularly to Hawaii. And the long term trend is still a continued decline (which started fifteen years ago) in Japanese arrivals at Hawaii airports. The number of Japanese going to Hawaii has been cut in half since 1987 (see page 4 in the link below):

http://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/default/assets/File/marketing/HTJSpringUpdate1.pdf

 

[tomandrobin]

Not is, once was. The troubled economy and rapidly aging population in Japan is having a very, very big impact on personal travel, particularly to Hawaii. And the long term trend is still a continued decline (which started fifteen years ago) in Japanese arrivals at Hawaii airports. The number of Japanese going to Hawaii has been cut in half since 1987 (see page 4 in the link below):

http://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/default/assets/File/marketing/HTJSpringUpdate1.pdf

No disputing your numbers, but they are looking into the past....not to the future.

Here is a link from Hawaii's DBEDT - Department of Business, Economic, Development & Tourism - With the tourism forecast for 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015.

Here are the projected Japanese visitor and percent change. See page 2 for Japanese Visitor projections.

2011 1,241,804 0.2%
2012 1,388,017 11.8%
2013 1,424,331 2.6%
2014 1,458,555 2.4%
2015 1,493,992 2.4%

Based on the above numbers, there is a projected increase of 17% through 2015.

http://hawaii.gov/dbedt/info/visitor-stats/tourismforecast/Arrival forecast by market_2Q2011.pdf

 

[U2FanHfx]

Thanks for the input everyone. I'm holding out hope that this all works out! We have our flights purchased (points) and our Disneyland portion all worked out so I'm going for the hail mary for sure!

 

[dcfromva]

This wouldn't explain the whole month of May, but there is Golden Week in Japan. Apr 29-May 5th
Golden Week (Japan)

 

[kyton]

The cash portion of villas don't get released for public viewing until Dec / Jan - so an Aulani staff member told me two weeks ago.

 

[CandyMandy]

No disputing your numbers, but they are looking into the past....not to the future.

The past is fact. The future is unknown.

Here is a link from Hawaii's DBEDT - Department of Business, Economic, Development & Tourism - With the tourism forecast for 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015.

Here are the projected Japanese visitor and percent change. See page 2 for Japanese Visitor projections.

2011 1,241,804 0.2%
2012 1,388,017 11.8%
2013 1,424,331 2.6%
2014 1,458,555 2.4%
2015 1,493,992 2.4%

Based on the above numbers, there is a projected increase of 17% through 2015.

Projections are an educated guesses (of varying quality), not fact. Of course the local "chamber of commerce" is going to project improvement , so while their speculation is of nominal interest it doesn't prove there will be an increase.

And as I pointed out earlier, demographic trends in particular in Japan are running against, not for Hawaii. The fertility rate there has dropped far below replacement rate, so the population is going to start shrinking, not growing. And is becoming one increasingly made up of elderly people who do not engage in as much repeat long distance travel as middle aged people.

Bottom line: the assumption that Japanese buyers were going to "subsidize" Aulani was risky to begin with and is looking more and more like a flawed bet.

 

[tomandrobin]

The past is fact. The future is unknown.



Projections are an educated guesses (of varying quality), not fact. Of course the local "chamber of commerce" is going to project improvement , so while their speculation is of nominal interest it doesn't prove there will be an increase.

And as I pointed out earlier, demographic trends in particular in Japan are running against, not for Hawaii. The fertility rate there has dropped far below replacement rate, so the population is going to start shrinking, not growing. And is becoming one increasingly made up of elderly people who do not engage in as much repeat long distance travel as middle aged people.

Bottom line: the assumption that Japanese buyers were going to "subsidize" Aulani was risky to begin with and is looking more and more like a flawed bet.

Nice try.....

But the first two projects (2011 and 2012) seem to be correct....no?

You also dismiss what I have posted cause they are in the future and unknown, yet turn around and use the same argument about how Japanese will travel.....you can not have it both ways. Either using "guessing" on the future is allowed or not.

Have you seen the sales data for Aulani? I bet not.....

As the Japanese recover from the earthquake, the sales at Aulani have also improved to Japanese visitors.

Sept 5, 2012 - Hawaii Tourism Authority Vice President of Brand Management David Uchiyama says Japan arrivals to Hawaii are about 7 percent above target.

JTB Hawaii President Keiichi Tsujino tells the Honolulu Star-Advertiser travel for the string of national holidays in Japan known as "Golden Week," fared better than last year.

Japan Golden week is April 29, May 3, 4 and 5 consisting of several holidays.

And from Hawaii State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, August 10, 2012. (Which you to dismiss as unreliable for information regarding their State.)

Visitor arrivals are expected to increase 8.6 percent in 2012, 2.1 percentage points higher than the previous forecast of 6.5 percent. The forecast for visitor days in 2012 is now expected to increase 9.4 percent, 3.2 percentage point higher than the previous forecast. The forecast for visitor expenditure in 2012 is revised upward to 15.2 percent, from 9.0 percent growth projected in the previous forecast. For 2013, the growth rates of visitor arrivals, visitor days, and visitor expenditures are now expected to be 3.5 percent, 3.2 percent, and 5.6 percent, respectively.

 

[tomandrobin]

Bottom line: the assumption that Japanese buyers were going to "subsidize" Aulani was risky to begin with and is looking more and more like a flawed bet.

It was never an assumption.....

Want to give me facts, like I have given you, to back up your "flawed bet" claim?

 

[CandyMandy]

Yep, in targeting Japan for foreign time share sales, Disney picked a winner. Or perhaps was operating with an outdated 1960s "Tiki Room tourism" view of the world :

Over a decade later, Japanese consumers still stuck in 1990s recession frugality:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/business/worldbusiness/22japan.html

Japanese take fewer days of vacation than those in every other developed nation:

http://www.cnngo.com/tokyo/life/need-break-japanese-workers-do-648008

Japanese economy continues to slow:

http://newsonjapan.com/html/newsdesk/article/98232.php

Demographic time bomb in Japan as population ages:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7084749.stm