Bear Market Day?

[dvcgirl]

Ouch...the futures for our markets look ugly today. I don't know how many of you follow the markets but there was a massive sell-off around the world yesterday. Japan's index closed at 13,800 on Friday and closed at 12,600 on Tuesday....UK lost 5.5%, Germany is down 9% as of right now, France 7%. So much for the Bull theory that we should all be plowing our money into International stocks since they were "de-coupled" from the US economy and wouldn't be affected by our slowdown.

Dow futures are down 520 right now. If it closed down 500 that would put us within a couple hundred points of a bear market (or a 20% drop from the high of 14,100).

 

[Kay1]

Let's put it this way: I'm going to have a hard time leaving the tv and computer today. Interesting times, for sure. So many things could happen today. There's so much manipulation and intervention that it's impossible to predict.

 

[WendyisDarling]

It looks like it is going to be a difficult day for sure. The last few weeks haven't been great for us either.
We're thinking long term and will hold tight. Deep breaths.
Press conference this morning, I heard. Hope this stimulus package helps.

 

[dvcgirl]

Breaking news.....the Fed just cut by 75 basis points....emergency cut, so that will certainly help the markets.

Edited to add that I believe that the Fed is falling into a trap here....and that a few years down the road if they continue along this path, things could be worse.

Still the markets certainly are somewhat relieved, Dow futures are down *only* 300 now, instead of 550

 

[WendyisDarling]

Wow. I heard the Fed may make a cut today, but didn't expect that much. I heard that amount for next week. Wonder if there will be further cut then? Today's result may answer that ?.

 

[preschoolmom]

I'm not going to retire for another 32 years or so - So I have a good feeling the market will bounce back

 

[dvcgirl]

Let's put it this way: I'm going to have a hard time leaving the tv and computer today. Interesting times, for sure. So many things could happen today. There's so much manipulation and intervention that it's impossible to predict.

You're like me Kay1....I love this kind of stuff. Of course, I'm not as sick as some will be today because all of our tax deferred funds are in cash since November 6th. We're 12-15 years out and so we have a good timeline, but we saw this coming...especially in the US markets. We didn't want to see everything go down 30%+ like we did in 2000 and have to wait five years to get back to where we started. I guess I was tired of following "conventional market wisdom"....and feeling like I was just another sheep being led to slaughter.

Still, our taxable accounts have a good deal of international and commodities in them and so they've been hammered in the past 24 hours. Down 10% now. Still, I'm not as sick as I could have been. If our tax deferred accounts were in, we'd be a couple hundred grand poorer when the market opens today.

The trouble now is knowing when to get back in....and I'll tell you that I don't think we're even close. The financials need to get all of their dirty laundry out of that closet. Still, we'll probably start moving monthly savings back into both taxable and tax deferred accounts soon, maybe this summer. The big bulk of tax deferred we'll keep out until things are a little safer.

 

[PlutoPony]

I'm not going to retire for another 32 years or so - So I have a good feeling the market will bounce back

You're fortunate - I'd probably feel the same way in your shoes! We're in what is now becoming a risky time trap - 10 years to retirement, over 50 and hoping to hold onto good jobs (a challenge at this age, even with marketable skills and education) and in the time frame of shifting retirement savings over to lower risk / lower return investments. We don't really have 20 years of potential market growth to recoup losses any more . Wish I could just stick my head in the sand and not watch but by the time things have improved I'd probably suffocate...

 

[cbrfan]

I guess I'm just not a "panic" type of person. I'm looking to buy!

 

[dvcgirl]

I guess I'm just not a "panic" type of person. I'm looking to buy!

Me too....but not just yet. I'll start to perk up when we're down 30%, and even then I won't go near the financials. Many of them won't truly bottom until housing does.....and even then, it looks like we're beginning to see problems in commercial real estate.

BTW, we haven't had a cut of 75 bps since 1984....just to show you how serious this thing is....

 

[cbrfan]

Me too....but not just yet. I'll start to perk up when we're down 30%, and even then I won't go near the financials. Many of them won't truly bottom until housing does.....and even then, it looks like we're beginning to see problems in commercial real estate.

BTW, we haven't had a cut of 75 bps since 1984....just to show you how serious this thing is....

Wan't that an election year, too??

 

[Jennifer823]

Breaking news.....the Fed just cut by 75 basis points....emergency cut, so that will certainly help the markets.

Edited to add that I believe that the Fed is falling into a trap here....and that a few years down the road if they continue along this path, things could be worse.

Still the markets certainly are somewhat relieved, Dow futures are down *only* 300 now, instead of 550

Has the Fed ever cut the rate this much before? Wow- great for our equity loan but scary nonetheless!

 

[Jennifer823]

BTW, we haven't had a cut of 75 bps since 1984....just to show you how serious this thing is....

You answered my question before I asked it I guess I should have read to the end.

 

[sandy6879]

while not a good day to sell if at all possible, it's definitely a good day to buy. Eventually things will go up - might as well get a sale

Keep the long term perspective and take some deep breaths - we will get through this one too.

 

[Jennifer823]

Now they are saying on Fox Business to expect an additional 1/4 pt. next week!

 

[Kay1]

I feel for the people who are doing their best to be responsible and save through their ING accounts.

I have CDs that mature later this year and I'll need to make decisions then. My stock portfolio is simple and actually benefits from lower share prices - as long as there aren't dividend cuts.

If they keep cutting rates, I may consider borrowing money. I need to start learning about loans, etc.

My big fear is unemployment. If my husband lost his job, I may panic. Other than that we're okay.

Good luck, everyone.

 

[PlutoPony]

Don't forget rate cuts are a 2 edged sword - lower interest rates hurt those with "simple" savings (like CD's, savings accounts, etc.). My elderly mother, born in the depression era, has much of her savings in CD's - you know safe, there when you need it, and liquid. Many people her age also have their nest egg in this type investment and live off the interest. She told me last night she's got a couple of big CD's coming due this week and her options for renewal just got worse which in turn means less money for her to live on. However, she's quick to add that also means less income to pay taxes on - so I think she's got a handle on the big picture .

 

[Disneycrazymom]

We are defiantly watching closely. Just the fact that they cut the rate and did it before the scheduled meeting date is cause for me to pay attention!

I have a meeting tonight to begin the process of setting school tuition. We are in the same position as everyone, we can't raise it so much no one can afford to pay it, but we must pay the insurance cost increase. I hope someone has a creative solution. My opinion is times are going to be difficult for awhile.