$100 a Point At BCV ?

[DVCDAVE]

Now that everyone has had a chance to update their settings, and play a little, Does anyone want to get a real hot thread going ? before we switched servers this was a hot topic and thread.

DOC said he was headed down to WDW next Thursday and ask around a bit to check this srory out.

I agreed with RICHAMS last night when he said that DVC is going to have to announce the next construstion site soon if VWL is selling out by the end of this year. As BCV is not much larger than VWL. That means if BCV opens in late summer 2002, all the WDW DVC property will be sold out by fall of 2003. IF the current rate of sales continues.

Considering the time lag from planning to completion, they have to move real soon. I think we may hear about the new resort before Labor Day, and it will be at AKL. Just my guess though.

[RweTHEREyet]

that it will be the Bonnet Creek location that has been talked about, a stand-alone like OKW.

[Paul in CT]

IMHO, I think that you have to take the sellout predictions with a "grain of salt". If I recall correctly, OKW was predicted to be sold out by DVC Guides more than a year before it actually was. Also, unless the current economic "slowdown" turns around quickly, sales will be affected.

[Dean]

I still can't see a large OKW style resort at this point. It is my belief that DVC will not extend the expiration date of the new resorts and that all will end in 2042. This would make a large stand alone resort difficult to sell unless there is a major selling point. AKL might be workable as it would be smaller and have the AKL and AK itself as selling points. Lets assume a 550 unit, stand along in the uncertain economic times. How would DVC be able to entice people to buy. Lower prices per point, not on your life. Lower points total per unit, likely but I doubt enough to push the resort sold out within 5-6 years of completion, probably still equal or more points than OKW with smaller rooms. If it's not sold out by around 2010, the RTU limiation will start to affect the selling and prices as well. Park passes, that might work, but I don't see DVC going there again.

My prediction still stands, I think we've seen the last DVC resort being built at BCV, if I'm wrong, AKL or a similar smaller resort announced SOON would have to be it. I believe I offered a bet that there would be no more than one more resort within the DVC (that was after BC was started), no one has taken me up on it. Dan and I have a bet as to whether pool hopping will be in existance in a year, I took yes but qualified it greatly as I too think it is on the way out.

[lrodk]

My prediction is that The Grand Californian at Disneyland will get the next DVC nod. There's already a decent sized parcel set aside for just this purpose next to Grand, coupled with recent guest surveys indicating a strong interest in DVC. The west coast property is in dire need of a DVC facility and IMHO woul sell out fairly quickly. And with exchange rates at non-DVC resorts in Anaheim as poor as they are, this would be a win-win situation and unique opportunity for WDW based DVC members looking to sample the magic out west as well as for new members who visit Disneyland on a regular basis and would love to lock in on the benifits associated with a DVC real estate interest.

[WDW_Fan]

Dean
My prediction still stands, I think we've seen the last DVC resort being built at BCV, if I'm wrong, AKL or a similar smaller resort announced SOON would have to be it.

I'll take your bet. One fresh Disney Dollar. LOL I'm a big spender.

As long as they can sell out as fast as VWL looks like it is they will keep pumping them out.

[HorizonsFan]

A DVC resort at Disneyland would have me in CA quick!
I'd buy a multiday ticket and probably spend entirely too much money at California Adventure.
I'll bet there are plenty of other DVC'rs would do the same!
Hope it happens...

[CaptainMidnight]

An onsite CA DVC resort would sure seem to make sense, especially given the new park.

[Bigcat]

Why couldn't they have nothing for sale at WDW until VB and HH sell out? If these were the only thing available for sale, they would go.

[kem330]

I agree with Dean, most likely new place would be DCA. But won't that significantly reduce the sales staff at WDW - I would think they would need to set up a major sales operation onsite in CA. Certainly would change the sales dept. Also, even though there is significant demand right now for DVC what happens in 2042 when it reverts back to Disney? If they keep adding resorts, will they want that many more hotel rooms that need to be occupied? Or start a new program ? I don't believe they can keep building ,sometime there will be a saturation point.;)

[Dean]

It's a bet, one Disney dollar. A very large, OKW size resort or two resorts of any size beyond BCV and you win. I hope you win, frankly. :jester:

[WDW_Fan]

Dean:

LOL it's a bet. Postage will be the vig. (I don't think Vegas is going to be looking to comp. us any time soon - we aint high rollers.)

I don't see the end game being a factor insales till it is 25 to 30 years out if then. The discounted value of something that far out is too small.

Another way of looking at it is you hear people on the boards talking about break even in 4 to 6 years. So I see another 10 to15+ years of sales.

To sell they need product and VWL is selling out quick at what we all here see has premium prices. BCV will likely go quick too unless they drive the price so high it slows things down (and then it is even more profitable.) To have product they need to build.

Any accountant types out there know how they book income from DVC sales? I would think it is a huge money maker. They build a resort and we members pay for it with in a year or two of it opening - hell we pay them to finance it for us. They make a profit on the building and it is got to be substantial amount of income and fairly current. Add to that they have ongoing income streams from financing the sale, operating the resort and guest at the parks.

I better buy more stock. It is my only holding in the black.

I think DVC at DCA would be logical they have announced a 3rd park, not that they couldn't change their mind if DVA doesn't get better gates. See:
http://www.thirdthemepark.com/

[invalid_char]

Dean,

I think they have a good thing rolling and will build another DVC resort besides BCV.

So do you accept a wager that they will build another DVC property after BCV, period? (I do not have an opinion regarding what type it will be.)

Also, has there ever been any talk about adding a property on the monorail? I personally think that would be appealing for MK fans. The seven seas lagoon area has the potential to be billed as a very deluxe area.

We love the Epcot location, but if there were a DVC property on the monorail we would consider adding on there.

[DISNEYDEVOTEE]

I am a 220 point BWV member and know that I bought my points because it was a good deal for ME. What is Disney's motivation? I don't see a substantial monetary benefit over what a typical hotel would bring on. Aren't vacancy ratings very low at Disney?? I am glad that we have our points in place, even more exstatic if they add more DVC locals, but I am still foggy on Disneys motivation.



Thanks,

Bob

[vernon]

Disney's motivation is a BUCKET load of cash upfront for building a resort ( usually they would have to wait for decades to recoup the outlay). Plus it is likely in 41 years when the resorts return back to their control, they have the option of a "DVC 2" providing another large inflow of cash OR they have functional hotels at a ZERO cost. They also have a large number of people committed to vacationing at WDW for a long time to come, spending on tickets,meals and shopping. For Disney it's a win,win win situation.

IMHO a DVC at AKL is almost certain after that I think one at Bonnet Creek which is either wholely DVC or split with a regular hotel is possible. I like the idea of a DVC in California but not sure if the slightly dissapointing sales at HH and Vero ( both of which I LOVE !!!) will make Disney back off.

[Dean]

As I said, I hope I'm wrong but we'll see in time. invalid_char, I would not be surprised for one more fairly small resort like AKL or DCA. I think they have time to plan, announce, build and sell one along those lines and still be ahead of the 30 year window. I just have trouble imagining another OKW type struckler at Bonnet Creek or where ever. It would need a selling point and I don't see one forthcoming. The selling point could be less points, cheaper cost per point, free tickets, a themed pool, etc. They could do something like Marriott Horizons with a lot more activities. But the point is that there would need to be something to rope people in. Since I don't see any of the above happening, it would take a while to sell out. I don't think DVD will undertake something that's likely to take a while in these economic times. I still feel all would need to be completed and sold out by or before 30 years and that would be pushing it big time.

invalid_char, my offer stands but I will not take yours that any resort would make me a loser; if I'm going to lose, I won't to get more resorts or a larger resort out of it. Not a bad price for a few bucks plus postage.

[NFalzon]

Has anyone been there that can say one way or another that there would be room for a Villas (ala VWL)... Obviously, you'd have to do some mind reading to figure it out, but considering the Savannah--is there truly any way?

I'd love it--my god would I love it! As I would Villas at Disney Grand Californian (VGC?), but I got a feeling it will be Bonnet Creek. :-\

Nick

PS: I don't think RTU is an issue yet until people stop buying! Wouldn't Disney be reacting to something like this not predicting it? They can always skew the price via MB.

[DVCDAVE]

I wonder why they didn't build an DVC at AKL at the same time. Then they would be all set and not panicking about VWL selling too fast. There is also no reason why they wouldn't build in Anahiem and WDW at the same time. Seems to me they wouldn't be a lot of overlap in sales between the two properties.

It certainly seems to be a lot of interest in the 'themed' resorts like VWL, BCV, and to some extent BWV's. That is why it find it hard to believe in Bonnet Creek, especialy when OKW is built around that same golfing paradise theme, and it didn't sell out so fast. In know, I know, OKW is a lot larger than the other resorts, but BWV isn't exactly tiny either.

[PamOKW]

and it didn't sell out so fast.

The original Disney Vacation Club (now known as OKW) was an unknown concept to the original purchasers. All the subsequent DVC's have the original track record and understanding for people to base their decisions on. Also, the original minimum purchase was higher (closer to $12,000). It opened in late 1991 and was sold-out in 1998. BWV opened in July 1996 and sold out at the end of 2000. I don't think it took an unusually long time to sell-out OKW as compared to BWV.

I think Bonnet Creek may make sense. Maybe they'll build another BWV/BWI type set-up. Possibly getting Tiger Woods on board as a Disney spokesperson may up their pushing of golf. Just guessing here....

[Paul in CT]

Pam,

I agree with you that the newer DVC's have the history of OKW going for them. Sales are accelerating with time thanks partly to the "word of mouth" of current owners and their referrals except, of course, from CT where we cannot benefit fron our referrals. :(

I remember when we joined in August, 1995 our CM at that time indicated that OKW would likely be sold out in less than a year.

That being said, I still believe that the current economic conditions will impact sales negatively unless we get a rapid recovery. I'm glad that we bought when we did, although I wish it had been sooner. (It took me about a year to make up my mind.)

[WebmasterDoc]

That is why it find it hard to believe in Bonnet Creek, especialy when OKW is built around that same golfing paradise theme, and it didn't sell out so fast.

Actually, OKW sold out it's original ~500 villas in about 6 1/2 years- and then later took another 1 year to sell the new 34 villas. BWV took over 4 years to sell out- and didn't have any other onsite resort competing for over 1 year of that.

The economy could certainly affect future sales, but I believe another dedicated DVC resort would still sell- as long as the point structure is competitive.

Stay tuned!

[BethA]

When we were there 2 weeks ago the sales guide was predicting VWL would be sold out in less than 1 yr.I forget the % sold already but it was high--at least 50. I would expect AKL. The park is slow and they are adding to it and the new hotel seems a big success.

[msdis]

I would love to see a DVC resort in CA. We really want to visit and yes, the exchange rate is kind of high but we were expecting it.

In response to the times tables for each resort selling out, doesn't it seem to make sense that OKW had more units than BWV which had more units than VWL making it easier to sell out with fewer units?

Also, I just don't get it. The price p/p just keeps going up; the point/night/unit keeps going up with each new resort yet DVC members keep chasing it. Based on a poll here before the update about member income most members are upper middle-income and above. So from a marketing stand point does that mean they can and should keep going up? Does that mean there would be a market for AKL or GF since they will tap into an audiance that can/will be willing to pay more per point and use more points/night/unit to stay at the top end of resorts. I think so. There has been extensive work going on at GF for 2 years now and yes there would be room on the MK side of GF for DVC. People could walk or take the monorail. Wouldn't that be great? I also think BWV and the interest of BCV also proves another point. People want to be near the parks. OKW is a beautiful, peaceful resort that I don't think gets it's just deserve simply because of it's location. Therefore I don't think the Bonnet Creek idea will pan out or be popular unless the points/night/unit are less than BWV or VWL. Having never been to HH or VB I can't say for sure but I'm certain those are beautifull resorts too, it's just they are not sitting next to a Disney park. So yes, I can see another DVC at AKL or at GF. DVC is almost 10 years old and people are still buying it like hot cakes. I don't think another 5 years is going to make a difference.

[Sammie]

My guess would be AKL, considering they did the ground work for a DVC add on when they build the lodge.

[cookiemonster]

I absolutely agree. With DVC, Disney gets fully rented hotel rooms with cash upfront. In addition they have a captured audience for park attendence. In light of this, it is very unlikely that the next area of construction would be away from Disney World or Disneyland.

[PamOKW]

Awhile back when I posted about how nice AKL looked and how I hoped for an AKL DVC, someone posted they had heard it's not possible because of land use restrictions (or something like that). Anybody else heard anything like that? If not, I think it's a prime DVC location.

[Lesley]

Sammie, where did you get the information about them doing groundwork for a DVC at AKL?

I saw the same information that Pam did somewhere on these boards, but I don't recall the source of that info either.

I would love a DVC at AKL but I wonder about the feasibility of doing construction near the savannah.....I'd love to find out that they already have DVC units built into the hotel and are just waiting to sell them after VWL sells out ;) Wishful thinking! LOL Actually I'd be upset to find that out because we're adding on at VWL now and I can't see us doing another add on for a while :(

Oh well, only time will tell......

[bicker]

I would suspect that a V-AKL would be built on the parking-lot side of the hotel, without savannah views. It somewhat-reduces the attractiveness of the timeshare, but not providing a lake-view at VWL didn't seem to hurt sales any.

[Lesley]

Honestly if they were to build villas at AKL without a view I wouldn't even want to bother..... the savannah is the whole draw of AKL. As far as VWL not having a lake view, it doesn't really make a difference to me. But I do think it would more than "somewhat-reduce" the appeal of a timeshare there. Of course maybe others don't care what they're looking at...Maybe DVC is counting on that.

[bicker]

Yup; just ask yourself what the draw of the Wilderness Lodge is.

[mamalu]

A DVC guide told me last year that a new resort wasbeing planned for Fisherman's Wharf in San Francsico and that the DCL was going to have cruises to Alaska. Has anyone else heard this?

[Dean]

Both of those items would be hard to believe but we will see.