Did The Hurricane Change The Demographics of New Orleans?

[Madi100]

When people are allowed to return to NO and rebuild, do you suppose that it will be a completely different NO? The people that were left behind and couldn't afford to get out were living in poor conditions. How do you rebuild something like that for these people to afford? Most of them have been relocated to other locations. People are talking about sending them all over the United States. If those people didn't have the means to get out of NO, are they going to have the means to get back to NO? Do you think a large percentage of NO's poor will be gone for good?

[Rafiki Rafiki Rafiki]

I think the poor are attracted to big cities because of the opportunities availed to them. I don't think the climate of NO is going to change anytime soon.

Additionally, many of New Orleans' poor have been residents of New Orleans for generations. I suspect those sorts of people will return to NO unless a better opportunity is available to them in the places where they've been relocated.

The people I'm thinking about are the ones who have been flown out of the city--those who have never even been on a plane ride before. Can you imagine the shock they're experiencing right now?

[totalia]

My fiance says that alot of people are saying they won't go back. I think that New Orleans is going to change a geat deal.

He's debating whether he wants to. I asked him if he would please consider that now is not the time to go back to the city. Maybe in a year or two after they have had a chance to rebuild and we have had a chance to see how the weather patterns change, we can consider it.

I'm not against the idea, I just want to give it some proper time to recover.

[goin2disneyagain]

I think New Orleans will be a completely different place when it is rebuilt. Like Totalia said, in a lot of the interviews I have seen people are saying that they won't go back.

[Pugdog007]

Yes - I think the demographics may change permanently... or at least for some time to come. I hope the thugs are gone for good (killed preferably) so that the city is safe to visit again. I haven't felt safe in N.O. for about the past 5 years.

I've been in that convention center 4x in the past year and cannot imagine ever going back now. IMO both the Morial Convention Center and the Superdome need to be torn down and re-built.

[WebmasterAlex]

It will certainly change. The majority of homes did not have flood insurance. Most of those people won't be able to afford to rebuild. Those that rented will find new jobs etc in new towns and my decide to stay.

[totalia]

*nods*

[Bunch24]

When people are allowed to return to NO and rebuild, do you suppose that it will be a completely different NO? The people that were left behind and couldn't afford to get out were living in poor conditions. How do you rebuild something like that for these people to afford? Most of them have been relocated to other locations. People are talking about sending them all over the United States. If those people didn't have the means to get out of NO, are they going to have the means to get back to NO? Do you think a large percentage of NO's poor will be gone for good?

I don't know how much it will change the demographics, but I know that a lot of people I've talked to said they will NEVER return to New Orleans. They've begun looking for other jobs, places to live.

Now, it's still very early and things change. I think New Orleans will return to what it once was, but it will be a little different feeling there. I expect a lot of people in Houston to stay in Houston, same as Baton Rouge and Lafayette and San Antonio.

If it's going to really take three months to get the city back in shape, a lot of people won't have the patience to wait around.

[Planogirl]

I think that some will come back, even some of those saying that they won't. Many people are upset and have been through a major ordeal. I think that given the chance to heal and regroup that many might change their minds.

Besides, New Orleans will be hiring big time. That may lure quite a few people right there.

[LoraJ]

Right after 9/11, lots of people around here said they were leaving the area. Most changed their minds though. I think a lot of people moved out from the neighborhood I am in. Including whomever owned my condo before the people I bought from (just my opinion based on when they closed). I have a view of the WTC area and maybe they couldn't deal.

But now the property values have skyrocketed and people are moving into the area in droves. High rises are constantly being built.

What I wonder about NO though, is that the homes that have to be totally rebuilt, will people be afraid to build them that they could just get washed away again?

Not sure anyone would want to develope there unless they totally re-do the levee system, and that could take years.

[JimMIA]

It will certainly change. The majority of homes did not have flood insurance. Most of those people won't be able to afford to rebuild. Those that rented will find new jobs etc in new towns and my decide to stay.
That's a very good point, and will become a major issue as the rebuilding starts.

I'm sure many of the poor areas of NO are similar to the poor areas of Miami. Unlike the urban areas in the NE, we have a huge number of single family dwellings in our poorer areas. Most of them are owned by the residents, and many families have lived in the same house for several generations. The house was bought cheap long ago, it's paid for, and the residents don't carry insurance. Miami is a very young city -- virtually all of it built after WWII. NO has been around since the 1700's, so I'm sure there is even more of that generational passing of homes down in NO than here.

One of the big questions we are going to have to face as a nation is -- what do you do with that? The poor residents of NO certainly do not have the resources to rebuild. Do we embark on a multi-billion dollar public housing project? If you do that, what kind of city will you be creating? We're going to have to do something -- doing nothing will not be an option.

I'm not an expert on the demographics of New Orleans but I've heard a lot of talk about the haves and have-nots. I think there is a real danger that haves will take their insurance payouts and run, leaving the have-nots to fend for themselves. I know thousands of Miami residents took their insurance payouts after Hurricane Andrew, sold their wrecked properties to the first speculator with a checkbook in their hand and moved away permanently.

[ducklite]

I think that some will come back, even some of those saying that they won't. Many people are upset and have been through a major ordeal. I think that given the chance to heal and regroup that many might change their minds.

Besides, New Orleans will be hiring big time. That may lure quite a few people right there.

ITA! When someone has had a major trauma in their lives, they often say things without really thinking about it--we all do this, and I"m not condemning anyone for it.

I think once things settle down, and housing is built/cleaned up, people will want to go back "home". Of course some people will use the opportunity to start a new life, but IMHO many of those had wanted to leave for one reason or another for a long time.

My guess is that 80% of the population will return over the next five years. Those who choose not to will be replaced by people lured to NOLA by jobs and decide to stay.

Anne

[JimMIA]

Right after 9/11, lots of people around here said they were leaving the area. Most changed their minds though.We had similar responses in the South Dade area after Hurricane Andrew. Many said they were moving, but didn't. A lot of people did move, but they moved a few miles north -- from the suburbs of Miami to the suburbs of Ft. Lauderdale.

However, the Gulf Coast region is so much bigger and the damage is not only over a broader area, but it's also many times deeper that what either we faced after Andrew or the New York area faced after 9/11. New Orleans, in particular, is much, much worse.

In Andrew, we had the entire economy and most of the infrastructure totally destroyed in the southern 1/4 of Miami-Dade County. But the overall community economy was intact. We had 300,000 or more people temporarily homeless, but only about 100,000 who lost their homes entirely...in a community which, at that time, was about 1.5 million people.

We lost 41,000 military retirees in one bunch when Homestead AFB was closed. They had to move for medical care and other benefits, and they had no reason to stay. We also lost thousands of regular folks because their business were destroyed, their employer's business was destroyed, etc. They had no work; they had to move. But as bad as that is, it pales in comparison to the challenges in New Orleans.

In New Orleans, you have virtually the entire economy of the city destroyed. Nobody's coming for Mardi Gras, bank employees are now living in San Francisco and Boston, everybody's gone. There's nobody to work, and nobody for them to sell to if they could work.

In New Orleans, it's hard to find any reason for people to even want to move back. Most would probably be much better off starting new lives in new communities, where jobs, housing, and governmental infrastructure are already fully functioning.

[BillSears]

I was thinking the same thing this morning. I'm certain that the demographics will change.

I feel that the majority of the people who return will be people who own thier own homes or businesses. I think it's going to be 4-6 months before the standard working Joe will be allowed back. The poor won't have the resources to just pack up and leave the life they've established in those 4-6 months to return to an unknown in New Orleans. Just because they rented somewhere previously doesn't mean that they can return to that rental unit.

I guess one question is whther New Orleans would reach out to the poor to return them to the city. I just can't picture any city trying to return to new homes the people who were living on public support. Escpecially when those people are already being taken care of elsewhere.

So I expect that New Orleans will become a middle class city. I suspect that the poor will return but it will take a long time to fill those spots. But this may cause a problem since the tourist industry does need low paid workers to survive. I hate to admit this but the most mobile lower paid workers we have in this country seem to be illegal immigrants. So I expect the poor in New Orleans may change from mostly African American to Hispanic.

[LoraJ]

In New Orleans, you have virtually the entire economy of the city destroyed. Nobody's coming for Mardi Gras, bank employees are now living in San Francisco and Boston, everybody's gone. There's nobody to work, and nobody for them to sell to if they could work.

In New Orleans, it's hard to find any reason for people to even want to move back. Most would probably be much better off starting new lives in new communities, where jobs, housing, and governmental infrastructure are already fully functioning.

If I can get a hotel room, I am coming for Mardi Gras this year. As long as it is still going on. So, don't say no one is coming for Mardi Gras.

[JimMIA]

If I can get a hotel room, I am coming for Mardi Gras this year. As long as it is still going on. So, don't say no one is coming for Mardi Gras.
When I posted that, I was thinking the same thing. If they have Mardi Gras, a real party could break out!

[ducklite]

If I can get a hotel room, I am coming for Mardi Gras this year. As long as it is still going on. So, don't say no one is coming for Mardi Gras.

While I have no doubt Mardi Gras will happen in NOLA again, I'm not so sure it will happen in 2006. I'm just not sure the infrastructure needed to host it and deal with the crowds that come will be back in place by that time.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it happen, the influx of cash into the city would be wonderful, but I'm just not going to hold my breath for it.

Anne

[LoraJ]

While I have no doubt Mardi Gras will happen in NOLA again, I'm not so sure it will happen in 2006. I'm just not sure the infrastructure needed to host it and deal with the crowds that come will be back in place by that time.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it happen, the influx of cash into the city would be wonderful, but I'm just not going to hold my breath for it.

Anne

I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Even if they just have some balls but not the major parades we will be going (again if we have a place to stay). BF's mom wants us to go to the Mom's Ball which she has gone to since he was a baby.

But that's just being optimistic for now. There's so much other stuff that NO needs to deal with now before thinking about Mardi Gras.

[leight]

In New Orleans, you have virtually the entire economy of the city destroyed. Nobody's coming for Mardi Gras, bank employees are now living in San Francisco and Boston, everybody's gone. There's nobody to work, and nobody for them to sell to if they could work.

In New Orleans, it's hard to find any reason for people to even want to move back. Most would probably be much better off starting new lives in new communities, where jobs, housing, and governmental infrastructure are already fully functioning.__________________

I feel a little differently about this. Once the water is drained and they start planning to rebuild- I think the gov't is going to assist in making the Leavee technology much better than it had been (instead of cutting the money to the evaluations) and since the French Quarter-which is where so much of the Historical tourist draw to NO - seems to have escaped much of the flooding- then tourism will continue- especially since Mardi Gras is meyond the hurricane season.

I also feel that many of the folks who are saying they won't return now will eventually go back- especially if they take jobs to rebuild their city and if they recieve some sort of compensation from the gov't to do so.

So some of the demographics will change- but the history of this city was not washed away and the spirit of its people will return-as hopefully some of them. Also, the flux of rebuilding will draw new blood to the city and that will change some of the demographics.

[eeyore45]

The thing that worries me is our Supreme Court has deemed "immenent Domaine" rules - and as someone posted about speculators coming in with checks... can you imagine the havoc it could reign? Who gets to decide?

The haves vs the have nots... only time will tell, and I'l be watching!!

[Lisa loves Pooh]

True--but even if you were poor living in a dilapidated home with no insurance--it was still your home and the land still yours. The poor would have to be compensated "fairly". (anybody actually would). Hopefully they will be "fair" "fair" prices and not "your screwed" fair prices.

I could easily see condo's going up in the flood prone sections--and just the lower levels being a parking garage. That is what a lot of the ocean front condos here do. There isnt' a residence on the true first floor of the building.

[mickeyfan2]

I think the amount of time to just drain and get survices back maybe such that they have established themselves else where and decide to stay there for a while. As time goes by some may decide to return.

[Madi100]

I was thinking the same thing this morning. I'm certain that the demographics will change.



I guess one question is whther New Orleans would reach out to the poor to return them to the city. I just can't picture any city trying to return to new homes the people who were living on public support. Escpecially when those people are already being taken care of elsewhere.



That's the part I don't see happening. Why would a city build housing for people who have always relied on the "system" to take care of them for whatever reason? And, don't you suppose that a large majority of those people lived in NO because they had no opportunity to live elsewhere or the means to do it?

I agree with people saying that NO is a very old city, and people have lived in the same house for generations. But if their house is gone what do they have to go back to?