A little hurricane grievance/evacuations education/ Katrina timeline.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Long post----

I am bothered that some people just do not understand hurricanes--and evacuations...and such. You think you know what you are talking about and you don't.

1. He should have used busses (not enough of them)
2.he should have used planes (well than you have stranded tourists)\
3. he should have used trains (they are slow to get and not enough room)

You might as well suggest he just beam everyone up onto the starship enteprise.

It is NOT that simple!

Stuff really sucks in New Orleans now. It has NOTHING to do with Evacuations. There was a plan to evacuate. It was executed as it should be and as it could be. Time and forecasting are the hinderances--NOT the leadership.

You only know what a hurricane is going to do based on what the National Hurricane Center issues in its advisories.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

(Tropical storm same thing--sub TS for hurricane).

The farther away a storm is---the less accurate the prediction. Lots of changes in the track--sometimes the models can agree--sometimes they look like a plate of spaghetti.

Evacuations are called for when it becomes evident that the system is threatening to a location and is for coastal communities, flood-prone areas, and mobile homes. When it becomes evident--is when the models and forecasters and National Hurricane Center says it does. The leaders have NOTHING to do with this. They cannot control it. They don't know when it hits Miami that it will head over in this direction and annihilate Lousiana and Mississippi--leveling towns and shutting down a city.

Sure--it has been foreshadowed for YEARS that an event of this magnitude would happen--but in the end...they only "know 48 hours ahead of time". It is the limitations of the weather technology. Until it gets perfected...you just don't know. So many factors steer those storms--so much can change in so little time to produce a very different outcome. That is what happened with Katrina.

Optimum circumstance--you have 48 hours to do whatever you need to do to prepare your home and evacuate if necessary...sometimes you have the projection-cone working with you to get you an extra day when a system happens to be perfectley heading your way--but the cone of prediction didn't even have LA or MS in it until 48 hours before she made landfall in LA.

So if you aren't being told that a hurricane is coming--the best plans in the world aren't going to be implemented for something that as far as technology is telling you--isn't coming to you. Why the heck would you evacuate for something that is coming nowhere near you?

Port Charlotte--a prime example of a last minute and catastrophic detour. Forecasted for hurricane force winds from a Category 2 storm along the coast....and in 2 hours, Charlie went from a 2 to a 4 and took a right turn and slammed into Port Charlotte. Sure--it "could have" happened...but it wasn't supposed to. It was heading straight for Tampa.

Heck--for hurricane Jeanne--I went to Disney for a day-trip one day--that darn woman was heading East into the Atlantic--by the time I came home--she was coming back. I had 6 hours to board up the home and the next morning to pack up the car and wait for my husband to come back from a business trip. Jeanne hit in 48 hours from her detour.

Katrina wasn't forecasted for the panhandle until Friday afternoon (she was forecasted to travel up the coast to North Florida and into Georgia).

For LA, MS, AL--the threat was not even existant in the forecast models--until Friday NIGHT--2.5 days away---evacuations were called for immediately the NEXT morning. A hurricane watch was not issued until 10am on Saturday morning. People in LA, MS, and AL in vulnerable areas had less than 48 hours to prepare...and those in the "zone" to prepare and evacuate.

The mayor had to get a court order for mandatory evacuation of the city of New Orleans. He did this--because not enough of the city was heeding the warning. That order was issued on Sunday.

He busted his but to get people out--and he made sure to have a SAFER haven in the form of a refuge of last resort. There is no bussing out 100,000 people with 48 hours notice. It is logistically and mathematically impossible. Roads are clogged with those who are leaving. Airport is jammed with tourists trying to leave. A cat 5 is announced--so the airlines decide to not bring any planes back for risk of having to leave them on the runway. There is no "beam me up scotty, get me out of this place".

So stop busting the mans chops for how this mess began. He is not a fortune teller. He is not a meteorologist. He is not God. He and all leaders along the gulf coast and eastern seaboard are dependent upon what the National Hurricane Center says.

They had a plan to evacuate the city and they implemented it as soon as they knew a hurricane was heading their way.

What is going on now has nothing to do with a failed evacuation plan. There was no failure of plan. People left, they opened refuges of last resort and the last person was checked in almost 11pm Sunday night. It saved thousands of people. Yes they are suffering now and that just sucks to the highest of heavens--but the evacuation plan had NOTHING to do with that. NOTHING.

48 hours is not enough time to go to over 1 million homes knocking on doors. The people flocking to the dome, to the convention center,and to the Interstate--they are from ALL over metropolitan New Orleans....Parishes out of the jurisdiction of the Mayor. They either chose not to leave or for whatever reason did not leave. And that is a time and weather technology issue.

Hurricane preparations and evacuation plans are only as good as the technology can faciliate. Typically--you have 48 hours. Millions of people were fleeing the coast and had 48 hours to do it. It isn't just New Orleans...it is multiple parishes and counties in 3 different states!

Unless you live in or have lived in the zone--you have NO IDEA what it takes to leave home not knowing if you can come back when a hurricane threatens!
I've been through Hugo, evac'd for Floyd (who missed!), stayed home for a hurricane that when I went to bed--was in Miami heading out to sea and when I woke up it turned and I needed a new roof, evac'd for Frances & Jeanne.

Those in the zone breathe these things with every tropical system that occurs between June 1st and November 30th.

So if you live in the midwest, the northeast--or anywhere where you do not see this each year--don't even begin to criticize the evacuaton process. You just don't get it.

RANT OVER!



Here's Katrina's history with pertinant advisories and information:

At 11am Wednesday:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH.

12 hours later....at 11pm Wednesday
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH.

5pm Thursday
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

7pm Thursday
...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUST REPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS...

At this point--the cone (no longer available..I searched the hurricane thread--and the images are updated to the last image available at her last advisory as a tropical system)--has it forecasted for only Florida.

3am Friday
...CENTER OF KATRINA EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT KATRINA HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND KATRINA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY.

5am Friday--still no mention of anything but Florida--roughly 72 hours from Lousiana
...KATRINA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... 120 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

2pm Friday
...KATRINA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS......TROPICAL STORM-FORCE CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

5pm Friday--this advisory moved the track 150 miles west and aimed it at the panhandle...
...KATRINA CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS......WATCHES AND WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MAINLAND FLORIDA...AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PENINSULAR FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE ...MAJOR... HURRICANE TODAY AND ON SATURDAY.


9:37pm Friday post from Bet on the original hurricane thread--the path changes:
The latest models are pulling Katrina even farther west, towards New Orleans. Possible Cat 5. Very scary!!!!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/e/e5/Hurricane_Katrina_wind_swath.gif/750px-Hurricane_Katrina_wind_swath.gif

11pm Friday...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO......THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

10am Saturday--Hurricane Watch issued--less than 48 hours to go
...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

Sometime Saturday morning--Evacuations are called for SE Louisiana
Evacuations Planned As Katrina Nears Coast
12:30 PM Aug 27, 2005
APhttp://www.kbtx.com/home/headlines/1697856.html (complete article)

Low-lying Louisiana parishes called for evacuations Saturday and lines formed at gas stations in New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina appeared to be taking aim at the region while gathering strength over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico.
"This is not a test," New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin said at a news conference. He said he would probably ask people to leave at daybreak Sunday, and said the Superdome could be pressed into use as a shelter of last resort for people who do not have cars.

*snip*

"Right now, it looks like Louisiana is in line for a possible direct hit," Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco said. "It does not bode well for southeastern Louisiana."
Mandatory or voluntary evacuations were called on Grand Isle, Louisiana's only inhabited barrier island, and in the parishes of St. Charles, Lafourche, Terrebonne, Plaquemines and St. Bernard.

Most permanent residents of Grand Isle, La., don't leave for storms, said Jeannette Ruboyianes (Roo-buh-YAH-nees), owner of the Day Dream Inn.
"You have to have money to evacuate. If you don't have it, you ride out the storm," she said. "You know, at this juncture, all we can do is pray it doesn't come this way and tear us up."

About 300,000 residents of low-lying areas of the Florida Panhandle east of Pensacola also were under voluntary evacuation orders. The military planned to move aircraft and personnel out of some Panhandle bases Saturday.
Ray Arizi, owner of a hardware store in Venice, La., a coastal fishing town, said he was selling lots of bottled water, flashlights and batteries as people made storm preparations.

"Hopefully God will save us. That's all we can say," Arizi said.

People across New Orleans were filling their gas tanks, with lines several blocks long in some places, and some pumps were out of everything but premium.

*snip*

Katrina was a Category 1 with 80 mph wind when it hit South Florida on Thursday, and rainfall was estimated at up to 20 inches. Risk modeling companies have said early estimates of insured damage range from $600 million to $2 billion. That would make Katrina much less costly than the previous hurricanes.

South Florida utility crews were still working to restore power to 850,000 customers, down from more than 1 million. Crews had to clear away fallen trees to fix aboveground lines and wait for flooding to subside to reach underground ones.

South Florida residents waited in lines that stretched for miles to reach state-operated centers distributing free water and ice for those without electricity.
Florida has been hit by six hurricanes since last August. The Panhandle was slammed by Hurricane Ivan last year, then again by Hurricane Dennis this year, both Category 3 storms.


4pm Saturday
...KATRINA RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA. INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.


10pm Saturday
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

1AM Sunday
...KATRINA STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY FOUR WITH 145 MPH WINDS...HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING.

4AM Sunday
...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

7AM Sunday
...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/paperchase/2005/08/mayor-orders-new-orleans-evacuated.php

Mayor gets court order for mandatory city evacuation:


Mayor Ray Nagin ordered the entire US city of New Orleans (population 484,674) evacuated Sunday in advance of the anticipated Gulf Coast landfall Monday morning of Hurricane Katrina...
. A mandatory evacuation order is hereby called for all of the Parish of Orleans, with only the following exceptions: essential personnel of the United States of America, State of Louisiana and City of New Orleans; essential personnel of regulated utilities and mass transportation services; essential personnel of hospitals and their patients; essential personnel of the media; essential personnel of the Orleans Parish Criminal Sheriff's Office and its inmates and essential personnel of operating hotels and their patrons. Unless covered by one of the aforementioned exceptions, every person is hereby ordered to immediately evacuate the City of New Orleans or, if no other alternative is available, to immediately move to one of the facilities within the City that will be designated as refuges of last resort.

2. In order to effectuate the mandatory evacuation, at the direction of the Mayor, the Chief Administrative Officer, the Director of Homeland Security for the City of New Orleans or any member of the New Orleans Police Department, the City may commandeer any private property, including, but not limited to, buildings that may be designated as refuges of last resort and vehicles that may be used to transport people out the area.
(and yes had the power to transport people out---but time doesn't allow that)


Midnight Monday
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE KATRINA
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST...

2AM Monday---roughly 56 hours after models shifted and suggested Katrina "could" be a threat to Florida and roughly 42 hours since they called for evacuations

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINNING TO TURN
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST...

4AM Monday
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE GULF COAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...

6am Monday--less than 48 hours still since evacuations called for...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA PREPARING TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA......HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS...

8am Monday
...LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA
POUNDING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

Sometime in the morning--weather chasers filmed the storm surge in Gulfport. Roughly 65 hours when the track shifted 150 miles west and roughly 60 hours since the models forecasted NOLA.

10am Monday
...CENTER OF POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA AGAIN MOVING ASHORE...NEAR
THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER...CONTINUES POUNDING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

Rest of the advisories and those I listed in detail:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA.shtml?

[mom2alix]

Wow Lisa! Very detailed information. Really makes you realize how little notice you get when a real emergency comes bearing down on you. Pretty scary.

[Free4Life11]

Thank you for the detailed information.

[goin2disneyagain]

"I am bothered that some people just do not understand hurricanes--and evacuations...and such. You think you know what you are talking about and you don't.

1. He should have used busses (not enough of them)
2.he should have used planes (well than you have stranded tourists)\
3. he should have used trains (they are slow to get and not enough room)

You might as well suggest he just beam everyone up onto the starship enteprise.

It is NOT that simple!"

I think some people just want to blame someone.

[MagicKingdom05]

goin2disneyagain,

Some of the blame couldn't possible be on the fact that while some couldn't leave and had no choice others did have the means to leave, but decided not to and wait the storm out. Some of those people are the same ones that are complaining about the situation that they put them selves in, by staying.

[Tiggeroo]

I disagree just a bit. I"ve evac'd for hurricanes and stayed for some threats, not ordered evacs. Several days out when we see it building and consider it might be here we do some little prep. We get the house ready, etc. 48 hours out when it looks serious we brave the lines at the stores and stock up if we're likely to stay or pack up and gas up if we're likely to go. And these storms were much smaller and weaker. There was a time at least at 48 hours out when it was quite clear this storm was huge and powerful. No matter where it hit at least 2 states would be slammed. Those towns such as NO were so vulnerable they knew they had to act even if it wasn't going to be a direct hit. Their town officials are responsible to have a thorough plan in place that's been practiced. They should have been able to estimate what percentage of the population would be unable to get out on their own. Their should have been neighborhood coordinators who were responsible to check on their weaker citizens. For each area of the evac somebody should have been in charge with a whole team under them. When the threat came you say, ok now we do A,B and C. Mike you call the busses into this parrish. Deb you go to these 10 apartments and help these folks get out, Phil you handle hospital evacuations, etc.
Yes there would be some glitches. Some folks would never leave, there might be trouble finding hospital relocations for everybody. Folks might have had to sleep on hs gym floors thruought the whole inland area. But it would have gone much better then what we've seen. The folks left would have been a much more manageable number. Now I'm talking about NO. The other areas had much less warning and might have felt much less threatened. And yet, in spite of the fact that this area was much more spread out, and I suspect total area damaged that wasn't NO had a greater population then NO they did a better job of it. Less folks died, less were left in the path of the storm, etc.

[goin2disneyagain]

goin2disneyagain,

Some of the blame couldn't possible be on the fact that while some couldn't leave and had no choice others did have the means to leave, but decided not to and wait the storm out. Some of those people are the same ones that are complaining about the situation that they put them selves in, by staying.
That is true but I think the OP was frustrated by what people were posting on these boards. But you are correct, the people that don't listen and follow the advice when they have the means to evacuate are always going to be the 1st ones to complain. I think it is Murphy's Law. The governor of LA even said that the residents had to bear some of the responsibility because they were warned.

[jgmklmhem]

I know you are upset but before you jump down peoples throats like say who have a location from Utah like me....you should have all the facts. I will take shots at their plan because it was inadequate. No you cannot get 100,000 people out. I agree with that. Should there have been a much better plan in place to get as many as possible out using the "not enough" buses yes!!! Even 10 busloads heading out of town is 10 less busloads we have to worry about now. If approximately 400,000 other residents could leave on their own accord and get safely out of harms way then a caravan of buses could have done the same. I have heard no reports of people being stuck on the highway when the storm hit. You post a spot or multiple spots in the city (presumably in the poorer areas and announced wayyyyyy ahead of time and publicized ad nausea throughout the year, big signs the whole deal) when the mandatory evac orders are given (or even the initial orders at least give those who have no transportation an option to leave) and say be here by _____ o'clock or you won't be heading out of town. Using city buses which they do have take who shows up and in this case due to the forecast drive to Houston (obviously have agreements with the destination cities in advance to help). Other cases would have different destinations. Would people have to be turned away…possible but at least you get out who you can. Would you maybe only fill one bus possible as well but that one busload would be gone. Minimal cost since I assume many city buses are destroyed anyways and sending buses to a certain spot to get people and take them away and the storm doesn’t hit only really costs you fuel. I will also say New Orleans is a different animal than anywhere hit in Florida due to the after effects of the flood that doesn’t recede and its almost impossibly reachable location.

And before I get hit with the you don’t have any idea what you are talking about due to my location being in Utah, I did live in FL for about 20 years and have done the evacuation dance many times even knowing my house would not flood (Opal, Elaine, Erin, TS Allison, and many others whose names now escape me). Some we left others we stayed (none were ordered evac for our area). Elaine was insteresting because it was supposed to hit P'cola dead on and then turned to go south towards Tampa at the last minute. We had gone to my Grandmother's house. When it turned south we figured it was over for us. Drove back to P'cola and I swear we were about 15 minutes from my house when we hear on the radio that it had turned and was now headed back for us. We rode it out. I have even worked for Pensacola Beach was in on planning meetings and helped institute an evacuation of the beach when Hurricane Erin was coming. Talking about time, we didn’t get word we would be a prime target until about mid-afternoon the day before it hit (heck my parents didn’t even know when we found out). We got everyone who would leave off the island by about I believe it was midnight and then closed the bridge. We also got all of our equipment secured in Gulf Breeze. I also worked during the clean up for that and other storms as well.....including Andrew. So now am I allowed to make comments about the failure to at least try to get more people out of harms way by government means.

[Teejay32]

Oh for God's sake. Everyone living in coastal areas including the northeast knows something about flooding, if not hurricanes, and this is as much a flood disaster as anything else....and so was Hurricane Floyd, in NC. There are tangetally related problems that I wouldn't criticise the mayor for, but the federal gov't (Bush) declared emergency in advance and personally lobbied for evacuation of New Orleans based on flooding, which would be (and is) a catastrophe of proportions unique to New Orleans.

Just fed up with people on soapboxes today. Mayor included.

[Tiggeroo]

Thanks JG. That's what I'm saying. We've left times when we weren't ordered, esp since we had kids. We were ready to leave, or ride out a storm in the early days when they were saying one could got to NC, or to FLA, or hit here in NJ. We were ready to leave if we had to. And if the order came in, or even if it didn't and I felt threatened we left, with enough time to get our goods to the higher floor in our home, remove our pets and at least one album of precious photos. I've also lived where bridges went out on both sides of my home and it took a very long time to have them repaired. This was handled badly and the people are reacting even worst. Sorry, these strong young men who are shooting and looting should be going to every home and store. They should find every source of water or liquid and bring it to those sickly or with babies. They should find a running vehicle or boat and get it to water drops and help distribute it to people trapped and unable to do this. If they were doing this instead of creating terror outside folks would be able to bring in even more water.I see sad footage, get teary eyed and sad, I think about what's going on and get disgusted.

[tiggersmom2]

Oh for God's sake. Everyone living in coastal areas including the northeast knows something about flooding, if not hurricanes, and this is as much a flood disaster as anything else....and so was Hurricane Floyd, in NC. There are tangetally related problems that I wouldn't criticise the mayor for, but the federal gov't (Bush) declared emergency in advance and personally lobbied for evacuation of New Orleans based on flooding, which would be (and is) a catastrophe of proportions unique to New Orleans.

Just fed up with people on soapboxes today. Mayor included.

I so agree...my town was DESTROYED in 1994 by the "great flood"....the Ocmulgee decided to be difficult! :bitelip: Hurrican Floyd also affected us. I too am tired of it.

[WaltD4Me]

I've been wondering this the last couple days.......

Does anyone know if the Superdome was part of a comprehensive evacuation/hurricane plan beforehand or just somewhere they told people to go because they didn't know what else to do? -- Just wondering.

[jgmklmhem]

I've been wondering this the last couple days.......

Does anyone know if the Superdome was part of a comprehensive evacuation/hurricane plan beforehand or just somewhere they told people to go because they didn't know what else to do? -- Just wondering.

I have wondered the same thing. If it was part of a plan then it would seem to me that supplies would have been stockpiled there at all times just in case of such an emergency including a terrorist attack. Watching things unfold the impression I had was that it was an afterthought.

[LisaR]

I have wondered the same thing. If it was part of a plan then it would seem to me that supplies would have been stockpiled there at all times just in case of such an emergency including a terrorist attack. Watching things unfold the impression I had was that it was an afterthought.

I do not believe the people at the Superdome were not without food and water (someone please correct me if I am wrong). It seems like all the reports I heard said they did have provisions. It was the people at the Convention Center that had nothing. However, the bathrooms were a huge issue. I wonder how they are going to prevent that problem at the Astrodome? I was just reading a comment from someone saying that the Astrodome is used to housing a lot of people for six hours maximum and during that time they are focused on an event. Now they have thousands of people with nothing to do that will be there 24/7.

Lisa

[jfulcer]

As far as I've heard, the Superdome has always been in the plan for being a refuge of last resort. I don't think it was intended to house that many people for that long though. Overnight, maybe. 24 hours? Sure - but then they assumed people would be going back to their houses, but couldn't and were stuck.

[Bunch24]

As someone who has lived in "Hurricane territory" my entire life, one thing I've learned is that it's better to be prepared than be caught unprepared. I know anytime there's a storm brewing off the coast of Africa, my family always takes the proper steps necessary.

Waiting until a Hurricane Warning is issued is just plain stupid, no matter how you slice it. If a hurricane enters the Gulf, there's a damn good chance it will hit Louisiana. If you live in Louisiana on the coast, you always have to think that way. If you live in Florida on the coast, same thing. You just have to always be prepared.

There are thousands of buses in New Orleans. Seems to me someone should have started making contingency plans very early on, in the event that the hurricane comes their way. But no, they waited until a hurricane watch was issued, then a hurricane warning. By then, it's too late. Bridges have to close for safety reasons, and New Orleans is an island when its bridges are closed.

Scientists have been predicting this for years and right now, as cruel as it sounds, there are some that are saying "Told you so."

I place the blame squarely on the shoulders of the people who chose to wait until the last minute. If you're disabled, start making plans. If you're poor, go to your city hall and find out what means they are taking to get you out of the city. Don't try to ride it out. If you do, guess what, you might get stranded on the island of New Orleans until water recedes enough for trucks/buses to enter the area.

Seems to me like it's just common sense.

If you lived near a volcano, would you wait until you saw lava flowing to abandon your house? If you lived near a forest, would you wait until the fire is a couple of trees away before you leave?

The answer is no. And no matter what people say, I know you can't predict a hurricane's path, but you can sure well prepare for it in the event that it comes your way. If you don't that's your fault and nobody else's.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

And before I get hit with the you don’t have any idea what you are talking about due to my location being in Utah, I did live in FL for about 20 years and have done the evacuation dance many times

I did say "If you don't live or haven't ever lived...."

You have lived in it--so there is no need to defend yourself.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Even 10 busloads heading out of town is 10 less busloads we have to worry about now.

*snip*

You post a spot or multiple spots in the city (presumably in the poorer areas and announced wayyyyyy ahead of time and publicized ad nausea throughout the year, big signs the whole deal) when the mandatory evac orders are given (or even the initial orders at least give those who have no transportation an option to leave) and say be here by _____ o'clock or you won't be heading out of town.

*snip*

Minimal cost since I assume many city buses are destroyed anyways and sending buses to a certain spot to get people and take them away and the storm doesn’t hit only really costs you fuel.

*snip*

Talking about time, we didn’t get word we would be a prime target until about mid-afternoon the day before it hit (heck my parents didn’t even know when we found out).

They don't own school busses--they use city busses. Those city busses were used at bus stops around Orleans Parish (the city of New Orleans) to move people ot the Superdome. Had those same busses been used to transport people out of town--far less could have moved.....and many many more would have died.

This has nothing to do with unpreparedness---this has to do with evacuating millions of people. Grand Isle and the other parishes were not faced with the predicament of moving 100,000 without transportation....and do not find themsevles in the same problem.

Someone said they have 1000s of city busses....

Let's pretend that those busses have spaces for 45 (I do not know the #).
Out of the thousands left in the city---that is 45,000---and if the busses were lucky enough to make a round trip--that is 90,000. Who decides who stays behind and dies?

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Waiting until a Hurricane Warning is issued is just plain stupid, no matter how you slice it. If a hurricane enters the Gulf, there's a damn good chance it will hit Louisiana. If you live in Louisiana on the coast, you always have to think that way. If you live in Florida on the coast, same thing. You just have to always be prepared.



I didn't say wait until watch or warning--but you don't start implementing government ordered evacuations until the National Hurricane Center predictions indicate a liklihood of being stricken.

I always prepare---but I don't go and make hotel reservations and pack my car up for every Tropical Depression that pops its head up. I watch, wait, and pay attention. And who's to say that anyone didn't do that.


They didn't say wait unitl a "watch" was issued. I think it is circumstance that has evacuations going about the time watches are issued. Not that they waited for it--I do not have a timelien of the governemnt b/c it isn't out there. The hurricane center pretty much had them "in the clear" on Friday.

I'm not talking about the general possibility and vulnerability that exists by geography of a hurricane striking--I'm talking about possibility when it comes to path prediction. Those are 2 different things.

It is possible for a house to be hit by my hurricane in the next 72 hours--but at the moment it is impossible b/c there are no disturbances predicted right now.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

If you lived near a volcano, would you wait until you saw lava flowing to abandon your house? If you lived near a forest, would you wait until the fire is a couple of trees away before you leave?

The answer is no. And no matter what people say, I know you can't predict a hurricane's path, but you can sure well prepare for it in the event that it comes your way. If you don't that's your fault and nobody else's.

I agree somewhat---but there are also not people evacuating now in the event that Mount Saint Helens blows tomorrow when she has sign no signs of doing that today.


As for your second--I can agree somewhat....but there will always be those who cannot help themselves either. And I was not speaking of personal responsibility...but the magical responsibility that some think lies on the governor to get all these people out of harms way. He had 48 hours to do it...and it wasn't enough time for him to personally move all those people.

[swilphil]

I read that the governor requested $5 million to aid in evacuating on August 27th and was DENIED. She (the gov) also requested military assistance on Sunday night. I don't know if that's true, but that's what I read.

I also think it's important to keep in mind that N.O. hasn't had a major hurricane since 1969. The citizens and government officials there aren't used to dealing with the evacuations like the citizens of Florida. I do think there was a ball dropped, but I don't think you can blame one person like the mayor, governor, or even the president, and certainly not the citizens who didn't leave.

Lisa--Thanks for the background information. It was very helpful.

[Aimee K]

I was looking for just such a timeline, Lisa. Thank you for taking the time to post this.

There are many places things could have been done differently, many place that things were done the only way they could be done. Hindsight, as they say, is 20/20.

Preparing for a category 5 hurricane in 48 hours in MONUMENTAL. Preparing for a catastrophic flood? Only if you prepare to fight Mother Nature, and I'd bet on her to win every time!

[Pin Wizard]

Excellent job! Thanks for posting all that. You're right...hurricanes can change course in no time. I remember friends telling me of a hurricane in FL in the 70s or 80s I guess that was "supposed" to hit Boca Raton. They left and headed for Orlando and got a hotel. Ended up the hurricane hit Orlando, not Boca Raton. That's a 2.5 to 3 hour drive.

When the evacuation order is issued, THAT'S the time to leave! (If not before.) Not wait around deciding yes, I'm going or no, I'm not going. People waste so much time and are then stuck where they are. At some point, evacuations must be called off in order to keep the people doing the evacuating safe.

FL practically has evacuations down to a science since they go through it so often. Areas that are rarely hit don't have the "drills" FL does.

[Kermit]

I completely agree, Lisa.

To answer some of the questions/points in previous posts:

The Superdome has been used as a refuge in previous storms, so it must have been used as a part of a plan. There was food and water there.

And to those who were saying that you should start acting as soon as the hurricane hits the gulf without waiting for a warning...

People like us probably should. By people like us, I mean people who have the Internet, time to watch TV and see what the hurricane is doing, and money to takes trips to WDW. And in fact, a lot of the people like us did start to prepare early. Most people didn't start to actually leave until Saturday morning, but they did board up their houses, make sure everything was ready to go, etc.

NOLA is made up with a lot of people who aren't like us. You can't even get a handle on if you haven't really ever been there. And by being there, I don't mean staying at a hotel on Bourbon Street. In addition to living there, I've done mission work in the inner city. These people are poor like you've never seen poor before. Many don't have cars. They work several jobs and don't have time to watch TV. They may not be able to feed their families if they miss one shift at their jobs. Even if they do evacuate, they have to somehow figure out where a shelter is because they don't have money for the Holiday Inn.

People, and the government of New Orleans, can't afford to evacuate until they KNOW that it will be bad. And you can't just say that we knew on Saturday that it would be bad. You don't really know until it hits. You probably don't closely follow hurricanes that hit areas where you don't have close friends or family. You may not be aware that about every other year there is a prediction that there's a hurricane coming that will destroy New Orleans. I don't remember which one it was, but last year I sat glued to the TV one morning, watching a hurricane blow in that was supposed to cause flooding so bad that there would be water up to Jackson's nose on the statue of him in Jackson Square in the heart of the French Quarter. At the last minute, it turned. Jackson didn't even get his feet wet.

Will things change because of Katrina? I certainly hope so. I hope that the plan for moving people in AFTER the storm becomes much more efficient. I hope they start keeping food, water, and emergency equipment in places like Baton Rouge, Jackson, MS, and other locations just out of reach of the worst damage, and that they come up with a plan to get these things in quickly and efficiently as soon as needed. I also hope that people will take more personal responsibility. I hope that more people will make a better effort to get out ahead of time, and I hope that those who choose to stay with have over a week's worth of water, food, and for goodness gracious, formula if they have a nursing baby. And I certainly hope they keep a pick axe in their attics. But would I recommend mass government evacuations before the storm for able bodied people? No. It's more efficient to get the people out afterward IF it ends up being necessary.

[BuckNaked]

If the officials in NOLA and LA are going to throw up their hands and say "There is no way everyone can get out and there is no way we can safely shelter them in the city", then I think they should give serious consideration to not rebuilding the city as it was. To me, it is totally unacceptable to write off 100,000 citizens in a city because "it's just too hard" to help them get out or protect them if they have to stay.

NOLA faces unique dangers in the face of hurricanes, and there has to be some creative solutions about how to handle those dangers in the future.

[peachgirl]

NOLA faces unique dangers in the face of hurricanes, and there has to be some creative solutions about how to handle those dangers in the future.

I refuse to believe that there is no way to improve evacuation plans, however as always, it's going to cost money so don't look for it to happen.

You'd think we'd learn that prevention costs less than curing, but we don't. We'll spend billions and billions of dollars to help victims and repair the city and no one will complain too much and even if they do, it won't change anything. New Orleans will be rebuilt right where it stands today and no one is going to stop that....not that I think they should.

However, should the Federal Government attempt to spend a dime on flood control or assistance to New Orleans for improved evacuation plans, you can bet we'll hear how NOLA should take care of itself.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

If the officials in NOLA and LA are going to throw up their hands and say "There is no way everyone can get out and there is no way we can safely shelter them in the city", then I think they should give serious consideration to not rebuilding the city as it was. To me, it is totally unacceptable to write off 100,000 citizens in a city because "it's just too hard" to help them get out or protect them if they have to stay.

NOLA faces unique dangers in the face of hurricanes, and there has to be some creative solutions about how to handle those dangers in the future.


They didn't throw their hands up in the air.

You cannot move 100,000 people in 48 hours. End of story.

For that matter--my county must throw its hands in the air--b/c there are people who cannot leave and go to shelters.

There is no magical limosine service to move that many people.

[BuckNaked]

I refuse to believe that there is no way to improve evacuation plans, however as always, it's going to cost money so don't look for it to happen.

You'd think we'd learn that prevention costs less than curing, but we don't. We'll spend billions and billions of dollars to help victims and repair the city and no one will complain too much and even if they do, it won't change anything. New Orleans will be rebuilt right where it stands today and no one is going to stop that....not that I think they should.

However, should the Federal Government attempt to spend a dime on flood control or assistance to New Orleans for improved evacuation plans, you can bet we'll hear how NOLA should take care of itself.

I don't think NOLA should take care of itself, but I definitely think that they should help contribute.

As for preventing, I'm all for trying to prevent such disasters, but this is nature we're talking about. We can try all we want, but there have to be real and effective plans in place in case the preventative measures don't work.

[Galahad]

Seems to me that we not only need to rebuild NOLA, but that we need to REDESIGN NOLA. It might work in the netherlands where there are no hurricanes, but perhaps a city with a sump-pump is a bad idea in the subtropics.

[tikkipoo]

If they evacuated the entire city, who would drive the buses to evacuate the ones that don't have transporation? Since were only talking about 48 hours at the most, wouldn't the drivers be gone? (I'm not trying to be smart, just a question)

[BuckNaked]

They didn't throw their hands up in the air.

I'm talking about future plans.

You cannot move 100,000 people in 48 hours. End of story.

Yes, you can, but it takes a good plan and Hurculean efforts. And any that can't be moved have to have a safe place to go to.

For that matter--my county must throw its hands in the air--b/c there are people who cannot leave and go to shelters.

That's fine, because your county obviously has shelters. NOLA doesn't. If a city doesn't have shelters, they they have to try to get people out.

[peachgirl]

I don't think NOLA should take care of itself, but I definitely think that they should help contribute.

As for preventing, I'm all for trying to prevent such disasters, but this is nature we're talking about. We can try all we want, but there have to be real and effective plans in place in case the preventative measures don't work.

I think they should contribute, but a city doesn't have nearly the kinds of resources they would need for extensive improvements in the levee system or the money it would cost to improve evacuation plans.

I wasn't talking about preventing disasters, I don't think we can. I meant preventing the type of flooding New Orleans experienced by improving the levee system. There are plans to improve the system, but as you know have not been completed due to lack of funding.

We also might want to look into improving Federal response times.

[Beastlover]

A very catastsrophic lesson....our coastal cities need to have better evacuation plans in place so they can be implemented effectively.

I think people have forgotten: this is 2 catastrophies in 1. First the hurricane, then the levy break. My DH saw on Discovery channel (??) a program on the condition of LO (NA), being built under sea level and the condition of the levies. THey talked about a tsunami coming along and causing a breach.

Don't know when it was on, but we thought that to be interesting.

So so very sad for all... :guilty:

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I refuse to believe that there is no way to improve evacuation plans,

I completely agree with you.

However--there is no way logistically--to empty 1 million people out in 48 hours.

You can improve maybe so that more people could leave--but you will have people--ALWAYS have people who cannot get out. It is the nature of the beast. The government is to keep you as safe as possible from natural disaster, not immune from it

(Note--I'm not discussing the levees which is a whole other topic for a whole other thread of how that failed the population).

They just didn't fathom that Katrina specifically--was any threat....b/c the National Hurricane System--whose responsibility is to track and predict these disasters---couldn't predict that the "possibility" of this specific storm was even going to bring a breeze to New Orleans let alone total devastation. It didn't come up until Friday--and the city reacted as quickly as they could.

Improvements can be made--but only so much is possible until the Hurricane forecasted track gets refined as technology improves to give more certainty further out.

[Kermit]

Another point I wanted to bring up is that if the government started evacuating people, I'm guessing that some of the people who would have otherwise evacuated themselves would suddenly be unable to evacuate on their own and need the government to do it for them. The number of people who stayed behind in NOLA doesn't represent the number the government would have to evacuated if they attempted to do it.

[BuckNaked]

I think they should contribute, but a city doesn't have nearly the kinds of resources they would need for extensive improvements in the levee system or the money it would cost to improve evacuation plans.


I wasn't talking about preventing disasters, I don't think we can. I meant preventing the type of flooding New Orleans experienced by improving the levee system. There are plans to improve the system, but as you know have not been completed due to lack of funding.

Even if the money had been available, it was a plan that wasn't planned to be completed for more than 10 years. I highly doubt it would have made any difference in this case. But nice try. ;)

We also might want to look into improving Federal response times.

The failure of the feds this time was in not telling state and local officials to get the hell out of the way and federalize the entire effort. Following the procedures that are in place require state and local governments to let the government know what they need, and it's obvious that those officials didn't have a clue.

[momof2inPA]

I'm sure they'll be better prepared next time. I'm not so much surprised at how many people stayed, but at how many people evacuated. There is so much poverty in the deep south.

A side note: How did president Bush find the only two black women in Biloxi who had time to get their hair and nails done since the hurricane while he was taking his tour yesterday? Well, at least we know he does like black people. Even though the poor ones are dying in New Orleans, he will let the clean, wealthy ones hang on his shoulder in the coastal neighborhoods of Mississippi.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Yes, you can, but it takes a good plan and Hurculean efforts. And any that can't be moved have to have a safe place to go to.



That's fine, because your county obviously has shelters. NOLA doesn't. If a city doesn't have shelters, they they have to try to get people out.

This is great--and very noble...and I agree with you---but it is more than 100,000. The city has ~500,000 to think about.....and then all the surrounding areas. You are moving millions in 48 hours. Not to mention Alabama and Mississippi. People are dead on the beaches their too. Had they not been told to evacuate (which they were)--so that one city could have all the highways....then there would be rage of all the 1000s dead in MS and AL.

The point is--they can only do as much as what is available from forecasting.

3 days before...it was a Florida problem only--one could argue--why not evacuate North Carolina south and Texas coast east---for each and every hurricane!

That is the point!

The city had a plan and it was executed when it became necessary to execute. You do not empty cities for natural events which pose no threat.

Katrina was NOT a threat to New Orleans...NOT a threat--until Friday. She was a threat ONLY to Florida and northward.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

The failure of the feds this time was in not telling state and local officials to get the hell out of the way and federalize the entire effort. Following the procedures that are in place require state and local governments to let the government know what they need, and it's obvious that those officials didn't have a clue.

Absolutetly....

(though I'm only talking specifically about the Hurricane Prep--not rescue and recovery--so I will leave it there).

[WDWBetsy]

Oh for God's sake. Everyone living in coastal areas including the northeast knows something about flooding, if not hurricanes, and this is as much a flood disaster as anything else....and so was Hurricane Floyd, in NC. There are tangetally related problems that I wouldn't criticise the mayor for, but the federal gov't (Bush) declared emergency in advance and personally lobbied for evacuation of New Orleans based on flooding, which would be (and is) a catastrophe of proportions unique to New Orleans.

Just fed up with people on soapboxes today. Mayor included.

I'm fed up with people not having any compassion and not looking outside their safe little world. Just because Bush declared an emergency and called for an evacuation doesn't mean the poor had the money and vehicles to leave. Let's see - if you have no money, no car, and no way out of town - how are you supposed to evacuate? These people are below poverty level.

Oh by the way - our President also cut funding to improve the levies so the money would be for homeland security and Iraq. What hard work he does!

It's pretty sad that our government can drop pallets of food/water in other countries (especially when we're bombing them) and they can't get their act together in our own country. Oh, that's right - the money and resources is in Iraq. Isn't Homeland Security supposed to protect the homeland?

[BuckNaked]

I'm fed up with people not having any compassion and not looking outside their safe little world. Just because Bush declared an emergency and called for an evacuation doesn't mean the poor had the money and vehicles to leave. Let's see - if you have no money, no car, and no way out of town - how are you supposed to evacuate? These people are below poverty level.



My point exactly!!! The mayor of NOLA told people to evacuate, but made little or not attempt to help those that had no means to leave.

[snoopy]

If the officials in NOLA and LA are going to throw up their hands and say "There is no way everyone can get out and there is no way we can safely shelter them in the city", then I think they should give serious consideration to not rebuilding the city as it was. To me, it is totally unacceptable to write off 100,000 citizens in a city because "it's just too hard" to help them get out or protect them if they have to stay.

NOLA faces unique dangers in the face of hurricanes, and there has to be some creative solutions about how to handle those dangers in the future.

This seems so cut and dried to me. I absolutely agree. I understand people have an attachment to their hometown and that NOLA is a place of such historical signficance, but it just seems nuts to rebuild and chance a disaster like this one again unless they can guarantee a much better plan.

[cajunmommy]

Just an FYI about the Dome being used as a shelter....Heard on the radio, probably Sat or Sun, as the evacuations were being discussed that the Dome was NOT to be a shelter. This was from someone in facility management with the Dome. He was warning people not to come despite it being used as an evacuation site last year. If it were to be used as an shelter of last resort, it was probably going to be a "swim-up option".

If Dome management knew this, there were probably no emergency provisions stocked inside. I'm guessing the only rations available were that left in storage by the on-site catering people.

Lisa, thanks for trying to shine some light on this for those who truly have no idea what's going on in this area. Seeing the arm-chair quarterbacking, even from folks here, is quite frustrating. I only hope we can learn from this expensive lesson and rise like a phoenix from the ashes.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

If they evacuated the entire city, who would drive the buses to evacuate the ones that don't have transporation? Since were only talking about 48 hours at the most, wouldn't the drivers be gone? (I'm not trying to be smart, just a question)


They had drivers--they were bussing people to the Superdome.

During a hurricane--city staff/essential services...employees cannot evacuate unless specifically told to do so. They find other arrangements for their family if their family needs to leave.

In my county---some employees were permitted to evacuate if they needed to--but had to be back in a specific amount time. Several got fired for not coming back in time. Some argued successfully to get their jobs back due to the return traffic and gas shortage but others did not. Came down to they knew their job duties and their evacuation plan should have had that in consideration.

So I have no doubt if such a Herculean effort were in place--they would have had the staff to drive these "rescue" busses that everyone thinks would have saved the day and more lives if people were removed from town. But we would not have had an empty city b/c there is no time to go door to door to 350,000 residences and arm wrestle them out. That would be visiting 121 homes per minute in the area or over 7200 per hour.

10,000 people went to pickup points---Not the 100,000 of those deemed unable to leave on their own due to physical or logistical issues.

[momof2inPA]

The failure of the feds this time was in not telling state and local officials to get the hell out of the way and federalize the entire effort. Following the procedures that are in place require state and local governments to let the government know what they need, and it's obvious that those officials didn't have a clue.

The day after the hurricane, the governor and a senator from Louisiana were on tv for a press conference, and every answer to a question, was that FEMA was on the scene and FEMA would solve their problems. They were not only NOT in the way of the federal effort, they were solely dependent on their organization and leadership. You can blame the lack of local plans and organization before the hurricane, but after if hit, FEMA should have established command and control and handled the entire evacuation and rescue effort. They did not-- or they did a horrible job of it. The Coast Guard did a lovely job of rescuing people from roof tops, but FEMA whose job, day in and day out, is to plan for and execute in emergency situations was AWFUL. Really, heads should roll and the entire agency should be re-examined, but our federal government owes the people of this country a better system.

[peachgirl]

Even if the money had been available, it was a plan that wasn't planned to be completed for more than 10 years. I highly doubt it would have made any difference in this case. But nice try.

Actually, if I had been trying to put in a little zinger, I would have noted that President Bush was the one who cut the funding. I didn't include that because I wasn't trying to get in a jab.

I realize it would not have helped for this disaster, but it would for ones in the future and that's what we were talking about. Nice try, though.


However--there is no way logistically--to empty 1 million people out in 48 hours.

I agree with you. As I understand it, we're talking about 1.4 million people or so, not just the citizens inside the New Orleans city limits. Not all of them can be evacuated, no matter how good the plan. Better shelters can be built and transportation plans to get them there can be improved. That's going to cost money and a lot of it and the American taxpayer has never been willing to pay for prevention.

The failure of the feds this time was in not telling state and local officials to get the hell out of the way and federalize the entire effort

Agreed, but the state and locals are out of the way now and the feds still can't get it done. I think enough time has passed now that we can begin to hold the feds responsible for the miserable job they are doing with the rescue effort.

[lillygator]

OP - great post...


and I have to wonder too...what resposibilities do we, as hurricane prone residents have? I mean, it does not matter how poor or rich I am, I think it is my responsibilty to my family and myself to plan ahead for these types of situations.


The news coverage is heartwrenching and brings me to tears...I can't stand to watch it. I do think that everyone wants to point fingers at everyone else, and the new "twists" of why they haven't gotten people help sooner is just disgusting but something that would be totally expected to be said.

I just hope that everyone gets the help they need and it will be a long time rebuilding...Port Charlotte and that areas (I was there last weekend) still - a year later- has a while to go.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I've been wondering this the last couple days.......

Does anyone know if the Superdome was part of a comprehensive evacuation/hurricane plan beforehand or just somewhere they told people to go because they didn't know what else to do? -- Just wondering.

Yes it is. It has been used before.

[Duckfan-in-Chicago]

I think they should contribute, but a city doesn't have nearly the kinds of resources they would need for extensive improvements in the levee system or the money it would cost to improve evacuation plans.

If I were the mayor of NOLA for the past 10 years I would have put a few dollar tax on every hotel room, rental car, flight out of the city, and boat docked at the port for a fund specifically into a fund for this purpose. It wouldn't cost the poor in the city anything and would have raised hundreds of millions of dollars. The tourists would barely notice it. You could even add a few cents to each drink on Burbon St.

[bgirldeb]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050902/ts_nm/weather_katrina_criticism_dc


Does this article from a 2004 National Geographic Magazine sound familiar?
http://www3.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0410/feature5/

[mum4jenn]

I so agree...my town was DESTROYED in 1994 by the "great flood"....the Ocmulgee decided to be difficult! :bitelip: Hurrican Floyd also affected us. I too am tired of it.


My family went through that flood too!! We lived in Albany GA at the time and we lived near the Flint River. We got 8 feet of water in our house. I understand also how it feels. Watching all of this is so so sad and it does bring back 11 year old memories.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I agree with you. As I understand it, we're talking about 1.4 million people or so, not just the citizens inside the New Orleans city limits.

Not to mention those on the coast of AL and MS who had just as much a hand in clogging I-10 for the evacuation route. I don't know the populations---but I-10 was a MAJORLY stressed highway...I am sure in this evacuation process.

This is millions of people.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Does this article from a 2004 National Geographic Magazine sound familiar?http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050902/ts_nm/weather_katrina_criticism_dc


The discussion and my point isn't an IF this would happen scenario...it is WHICH hurricane would cause this and how much time do you really have.

Hurricane was NOT a threat until Friday evening. Until then--We could have just as well been evacuating the Texas coast and all of the gulf coast.

You don't prepare for storms by doing "the sky is falling routine"--it stresses resources, causes havoc and fills road space with people who shouldn't be on the roads---instead of saving the roadspace for those who need to be on the roads.


We know very well--and noone is saying that a hurricane was NEVER going to cause this to the city. Just didn't know that Katrina was the one that "could" cause this--until Friday not.

And the levees--there is no dispute. But rebuilding them is not part of an evacuation plan and is an entirely different discussion all together.

[bgirldeb]

I guess my frustration is that it didn't seem like NO had much of a "Plan" at all. I know from living in FL that throughout hurricane season you can pick up hurricane preparation material for free from many local stores that tells you what to keep on hand throughout the season and what to do if there is a hurricane. They also have specific zones and routes and evacuate people in an organized manner. I would think a large city like NO with so many below the poverty level would at least have a plan to get the ones living in the most dangerous zones first, and then the next dangerous zone, etc.

oops- I added the NG article to my post, but deleted the other one... fixing it now

[padams]

When I was watching the evacuation process on the news the day before the huricane hit, I noticed that the interstate being shown clogged with traffic had only traffic in the "outbound lanes". The "inbound" lanes of the interstate were empty. In Georgia, the hurricane evacuation process provides that the interstates are switched to all outbound rather than 2 way, to get more traffic out faster. Was the news video footage I saw correct, did NO not open all lanes of I-10 in both directions to outbound traffic?

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I guess my frustration is that it didn't seem like NO had much of a "Plan" at all.

I know--it seems like it...but they had one. They had zoned removal --they had contraflow (opening all lanes to flow in one direction instead of two--out of the city).


I watched the whole thing LIVE as it was happening.

When I was watching the evacuation process on the news the day before the huricane hit, I noticed that the interstate being shown clogged with traffic had only traffic in the "outbound lanes". The "inbound" lanes of the interstate were empty. In Georgia, the hurricane evacuation process provides that the interstates are switched to all outbound rather than 2 way, to get more traffic out faster. Was the news video footage I saw correct, did NO not open all lanes of I-10 in both directions to outbound traffic?

I was confused b/c I only saw one side with cars as well---but these were traffic cams....and the contraflow began in the distance. One of the anchors finally said where to look to see the cross over--and then I saw it.

I guess contra flow in the middle of the city doesn't do much b/c it doesn't get you out.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

oops- I added the NG article to my post, but deleted the other one... fixing it now

:confused3

both articles reference the doomsday and expectations that this calamity would happen.

I'm not disputing that.


They did not know which specific storm event would be the one that could cause this calamity until 48 hours before.

[bgirldeb]

Yes, I remember seeing contraflow.

It's just such a SAD situation all around. I know this is an understatement.

[padams]

Thanks Lisa for responding to my question about the interstates.

I really don't think the pre-hurricane evacuation could have been handled any better. 24-48 hours is not enough time to get everyone out. However, the aftermath of the hurricane, that's an entirely different matter....

[BuckNaked]

I guess my frustration is that it didn't seem like NO had much of a "Plan" at all. I know from living in FL that throughout hurricane season you can pick up hurricane preparation material for free from many local stores that tells you what to keep on hand throughout the season and what to do if there is a hurricane. They also have specific zones and routes and evacuate people in an organized manner. I would think a large city like NO with so many below the poverty level would at least have a plan to get the ones living in the most dangerous zones first, and then the next dangerous zone, etc.

oops- I added the NG article to my post, but deleted the other one... fixing it now

That's what I'm saying as well - where were the plans to take care of these people? It's all well and good to say "Well, they didn't have time". Well, guess what, they got as much time as any other hurricane target gets. And KNOWING that the water doesn't just come in and then go back out, as it does in most hurricane scenarios, they had a responsibility to have a plan in place to take care of the people that couldn't get out.

I pulled out the Oct 2004 NG last night to read the article, and reading the first page was like reading a newspaper report on NOLA in the last 5 days.

And I'm not laying this just on mayor Nagin - this is something that should have been in place for decades. There's a very good editorial in the Washington Post this morning about how they had begun to make plans for mass evacuations, most notably, the plan to use cruise ships get people out that had no other way to escape. Unfortunately, these plans were only in the early stages of development. Time ran out. That they had only begun to make plans is a travesty.

The day after the hurricane, the governor and a senator from Louisiana were on tv for a press conference, and every answer to a question, was that FEMA was on the scene and FEMA would solve their problems. They were not only NOT in the way of the federal effort, they were solely dependent on their organization and leadership. You can blame the lack of local plans and organization before the hurricane, but after if hit, FEMA should have established command and control and handled the entire evacuation and rescue effort. They did not-- or they did a horrible job of it. The Coast Guard did a lovely job of rescuing people from roof tops, but FEMA whose job, day in and day out, is to plan for and execute in emergency situations was AWFUL. Really, heads should roll and the entire agency should be re-examined, but our federal government owes the people of this country a better system.

ITA that FEMA has not performed - had it been up to me, Brown would have been fired on Tuesday and the next in command put in control. I don't see how he (or she) could have done any worse than was already being done.

But the bottom line is that under the current system, FEMA is there to coordinate efforts that are requested by state emergenecy management officials. The command and control you speak of is for the distribution and coordination of services and relief. But the local officials are in the best position to know what is needed and where, and it is up to them to forward those needs to FEMA. That wasn't being done.

For example, much has been made of Brown not knowing about the people at the convention center, even though it had been on TV. Putting aside the fact that I doubt the FEMA director was spending his time flipping through the news channels, why hadn't FEMA been alerted by local officials about the convention center?

And this statement in your post says volumes, though I doubt you meant it that way:

They were not only NOT in the way of the federal effort, they were solely dependent on their organization and leadership .

You're right, there was little to no leadership at the local and state level in NOLA.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Thanks Lisa for responding to my question about the interstates.

I really don't think the pre-hurricane evacuation could have been handled any better. 24-48 hours is not enough time to get everyone out. However, the aftermath of the hurricane, that's an entirely different matter....

No argument from me whatsoever!!!

I think the prep plans were done as they could be.

Those rescue and recovery plans----don't even get me started.

(;))

[LoraJ]

I was in Ft. Lauderdale last year right before Jeanne. 14 hours before the storm was heading that way, we were out having dinner in South Beach with tons of other people. No one was evacuating. None of my friends who lived their evacuated. We had to evacuate because the hotel forced us. But we had made arrangements for a flight out before it got to that point anyway. There was no way I was sticking around to experience that.

I remember it being very difficult to get gas. I can't imagine all the time wasted for people trying to get gas so they could get out of town. Lots of stations closed too. I wasn't able to fill up my tank so Dollar charged me $65 for a half tank of gas.

My friend in Port Charlotte didn't evacuate either last year during Charley. They aren't poor. But they sure are lucky their house was barely damaged. All the other homes on their street lost their roofs and windows.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

That's what I'm saying as well - where were the plans to take care of these people?

And I'm not laying this just on mayor Nagin - this is something that should have been in place for decades. There's a very good editorial in the Washington Post this morning about how they had begun to make plans for mass evacuations, most notably, the plan to use cruise ships get people out that had no other way to escape. Unfortunately, these plans were only in the early stages of development. Time ran out. That they had only begun to make plans is a travesty.


Preparation plans are to keep people safe during the danger and keep them alive until danger has passed.

Rescue and Recovery is a whole other set of plans and you have no argument from me that someone screwed up somewhere.

The cavalry comes after the danger has passed---they are staged as close as possible, based on the predicted storm path, to come to the rescue.

As soon as the danger reduced--rescue began immediately for those stranded on rooftops.....beyond that....I am not disputing that it was screwed up. In fact I am boiling mad over it.

But when people are saying this could have been avoided if the evacuations were done correctly--that is what I am up in arms about. It WAS done correctly AS soon as New Orleans was deemed to "possibly" be in the zone. before then--we might as well have been evacuating Texas--b/c it would have just been a guess.

There is no crystal ball in weather forecasting--and we have to be thankful that for as deadly as hurricanes can be--that we are given enough time to do something.


And I am curious--with 48 hours notice--how the heck do you get a cruise ship to New Orleans to evacuate people. The one they had left was FULL of people and had to go to Galveston b/c there was a hurricane. Endanger those passengers to go pick up more. You could end up with an overturned ship in a CAT 5 storm.

You can only do as much as the technology enables you.

(And on that FEMA thing--I think if an area is declared a Federal Disaster Area--that local leadership needs to be overridden in terms of rescue and recovery--at least for events of this magnitude).

[peachgirl]

That's what I'm saying as well - where were the plans to take care of these people? It's all well and good to say "Well, they didn't have time". Well, guess what, they got as much time as any other hurricane target gets. And KNOWING that the water doesn't just come in and then go back out, as it does in most hurricane scenarios, they had a responsibility to have a plan in place to take care of the people that couldn't get out.



Summer 2004: (http://www.indyweek.com/durham/2004-09-22/cover.html) FEMA denies Louisiana's pre-disaster mitigation funding requests.

And indeed, some in-need areas have been inexplicably left out of the program. "In a sense, Louisiana is the flood plain of the nation," noted a 2002 FEMA report. "Louisiana waterways drain two-thirds of the continental United States. Precipitation in New York, the Dakotas, even Idaho and the Province of Alberta, finds its way to Louisiana's coastline." As a result, flooding is a constant threat, and the state has an estimated 18,000 buildings that have been repeatedly damaged by flood waters--the highest number of any state. And yet, this summer FEMA denied Louisiana communities' pre-disaster mitigation funding requests.

In Jefferson Parish, part of the New Orleans metropolitan area, flood zone manager Tom Rodrigue is baffled by the development. "You would think we would get maximum consideration" for the funds, he says. "This is what the grant program called for. We were more than qualified for it."



There's a timeline here along with a rather lengthy article explaining all the problems with FEMA...

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_09/007023.php

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I was in Ft. Lauderdale last year right before Jeanne. 14 hours before the storm was heading that way, we were out having dinner in South Beach with tons of other people. No one was evacuating. None of my friends who lived their evacuated. We had to evacuate because the hotel forced us. But we had made arrangements for a flight out before it got to that point anyway. There was no way I was sticking around to experience that.

I remember it being very difficult to get gas. I can't imagine all the time wasted for people trying to get gas so they could get out of town. Lots of stations closed too. I wasn't able to fill up my tank so Dollar charged me $65 for a half tank of gas.

My friend in Port Charlotte didn't evacuate either last year during Charley. They aren't poor. But they sure are lucky their house was barely damaged. All the other homes on their street lost their roofs and windows.

People choosing not to evacute is another matter. If your hotel forced you to evacuate--there must have been some evacuation order. These people were probably just going to go home to hunker down. Tourists on a beach cannot do that.

Port Charlotte was not supposed to get a direct hit. Tampa was. It was also supposed to only be Cat 2 storm that was within a few hours of making landfall. In a 2 hour window---he went from a Category 2 to a 4 and took a very major toggle that ended up at Port Charlotte. In 2 hours--there was nothing that community could do. Typically--it is coastal homes evacuate on barrier islands. I'm not sure where your friends live. But inland communities for a cat 2....don't evacute unless they are in a flood prone area or in a mobile home. The 4--was quite unexpected. They were expecting to find so many deaths---but didn't find as much as they thought they would--b/c people heeded voluntary evacuation orders.

Not evacuating isn't always about the money.

(glad to hear that your friends fared well).

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Summer 2004: (http://www.indyweek.com/durham/2004-09-22/cover.html) FEMA denies Louisiana's pre-disaster mitigation funding requests.



There's a timeline here along with a rather lengthy article explaining all the problems with FEMA...

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_09/007023.php

In all fairness---budget funding or not--it would have taken more than 1 year to plan and execute to repair the levvees so that they could withstand a stronger hurricane. Had the funding not been slashed--and monies provided...we'd be reading commentary on how this was too little too late.

(I'd gladly take this up with you on another thread--FEMA is pretty screwed up--but I'm going to limit my discussion now to the preparations of an impending storm and not long term readiness re: levvies and the like).

[BuckNaked]

Preparation plans are to keep people safe during the danger and keep them alive until danger has passed.

Rescue and Recovery is a whole other set of plans and you have no argument from me that someone screwed up somewhere.

The cavalry comes after the danger has passed---they are staged as close as possible, based on the predicted storm path, to come to the rescue.

As soon as the danger reduced--rescue began immediately for those stranded on rooftops.....beyond that....I am not disputing that it was screwed up. In fact I am boiling mad over it.

But when people are saying this could have been avoided if the evacuations were done correctly--that is what I am up in arms about.

Thanks, I already knew that. As I said, I lived most of my life in a hurricane zone.


It WAS done correctly AS soon as New Orleans was deemed to "possibly" be in the zone. before then--we might as well have been evacuating Texas--b/c it would have just been a guess.

What you seem to be missing in all of this is my point that the plan they had was woefully inadequate in addressing the needs of people that couldn't evacuate on their own. The plan was great and well executed for those that it pertained to. Unfortunately, it abandoned 100,000 people that are now paying the price for the poor plan.

There is no crystal ball in weather forecasting--and we have to be thankful that for as deadly as hurricanes can be--that we are given enough time to do something.

Of course there is no crystal ball. However a plan that leaves out a significant number of people, no matter how well executed, is a piss poor plan.


And I am curious--with 48 hours notice--how the heck do you get a cruise ship to New Orleans to evacuate people. The one they had left was FULL of people and had to go to Galveston b/c there was a hurricane. Endanger those passengers to go pick up more. You could end up with an overturned ship in a CAT 5 storm.


That's where the planning part comes in. Of course it couldn't be done in this case, because there was no plan in place.


(And on that FEMA thing--I think if an area is declared a Federal Disaster Area--that local leadership needs to be overridden in terms of rescue and recovery--at least for events of this magnitude).

I agree, but that isn't the way it is currently set up.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

What you seem to be missing in all of this is my point that the plan they had was woefully inadequate in addressing the needs of people that couldn't evacuate on their own. The plan was great and well executed for those that it pertained to. Unfortunately, it abandoned 100,000 people that are now paying the price for the poor plan.

Of course there is no crystal ball. However a plan that leaves out a significant number of people, no matter how well executed, is a piss poor plan.

That's where the planning part comes in. Of course it couldn't be done in this case, because there was no plan in place.

I agree, but that isn't the way it is currently set up.

With 48 hours notice--you have cruise ships stop their vacations--return passengers to home port (b/c it would be cruel to dump them off at the affected port)....and then go and pick up passengers? In 48 hours. Each ship holds--2000-3000 people for large ships.

How do you plan for that?


As far as the residents--it is not a piss poor plan. They had one. You cannot empty a metropolitan area in a matter of hours of all its residents. You cannot. They were getting refuge. That dome sprung a leak--but most were alive to tell about it.


I just don't think that even with the best laid plans--you cannot empty a city in 2 days.

Sure it is inadequate--but there is very little to do to make it better. Unless the United states has a fleet of aircraft that could transport hundreds of thousands of people--you cannot get everyone out.

But I'll humor you.

Does anyone know the capacity of the airport--that if the federal government could commandeer the airline industry--how many people could fly out in one day?

How do you prioritize? How do you verify that this person indeed has no car and no way out. For some--a free trip on an airplane could be much more enticing than sitting in traffic for hours.

And then there are security issues that just cannot be waived. People will still have to go through screening--you can't risk safety.

It all sounds well and good--but all the money in the world would make it happen in 48 hours.

[BuckNaked]

With 48 hours notice--you have cruise ships stop their vacations--return passengers to home port (b/c it would be cruel to dump them off at the affected port)....and then go and pick up passengers? In 48 hours. Each ship holds--2000-3000 people for large ships.

Absolutely you stop people's vacations to save people's lives. That's a no-brainer, IMO. As for how many people the ships can hold, that's for a passenger cruise. In an emergency, many, many more can be put onto the ships and sent elsewhere. That's why you make a plan.


As far as the residents--it is not a piss poor plan.

It wasn't? Telling people to leave, and doing nothing to help those that couldn't leave isn't piss poor? So I guess if people don't have the money or means to leave, we just say screw 'em?

They had one. You cannot empty a metropolitan area in a matter of hours of all its residents. You cannot. They were getting refuge. That dome sprung a leak--but most were alive to tell about it.

Coming out at the last minute and saying "Well, if you can't leave town, come to the Superdome" is not a plan. Especially when there wasn't enough food and water to handle everyone that came.


I just don't think that even with the best laid plans--you cannot empty a city in 2 days.

Perhaps not. But without even trying, we'll never know, will we?



But I'll humor you.

That's pretty rich. :rotfl:

Does anyone know the capacity of the airport--that if the federal government could commandeer the airline industry--how many people could fly out in one day?

I don't know the capacity of the airport, but the government can commandeer the civilian fleet.

How do you prioritize? How do you verify that this person indeed has no car and no way out. For some--a free trip on an airplane could be much more enticing than sitting in traffic for hours.

And then there are security issues that just cannot be waived. People will still have to go through screening--you can't risk safety.

It all sounds well and good--but all the money in the world would make it happen in 48 hours.

Really? And you have your degree in emergency planning from where? To say that it simply can't be done without even trying to come up with ideas on how to do it is ridiculous.

[momof2inPA]

You're right, there was little to no leadership at the local and state level in NOLA.

Yeah, they expected FEMA to provide the emergency management leadership, which is the sole purpose of FEMA. Let's say the local officials screwed up, but FEMA screwed up worse. This is clearly not a local issue. The damage is regional and widespread and the rescue and cleanup should be managed on a federal level, IMO, and handed off to the states at a later time. Do you think the governors should be calling the shots at this point and telling the guardsmen, the Navy ships, the active duty military what to do?

It's a national disaster. There needs to be federal leadership.

[Duckfan-in-Chicago]

Well, I hope, if nothing else, as a country we can learn from this and demand more.
This was a breakdown on all levels of Government in all administrations for at least the past 30 years as far as I'm concerned.
I have worked on pumping stations all over Chicago. The pumps for the tunnel that would shut down the expressway that goes past downtown if it flooded is on a hill. There is no chance of the building ever being flooded. The pumps themselves are sealed and in water 24/7. The pumps in NO are currently underwater and stopped working before the worse part of the storm even hit the city? What kind of engineering went into this? They should have been elevated and in a hurricane-proof enclosure. This is one of the biggest ports in the U.S. Cost is not a factor.

I would think that EVERY major US city should have a supply of hand held emergency radios tied in with a federal channel, and would last about a week. They would only bring these out in the event that there is a system wide power failure. Now, FEMA would know there were people at the convention center a few days earlier, and the cops, with proper training could work with the feds to get the help when and where needed ASAP.

I would think with 48 hours notice to clear the city, if they do rebuild, the next time this happens they could require all of the local stores to lock all of their guns up in a vault prior to the storm hitting so that looters don't help themselves to the weapons and create chaos.

I also heard in all of this coverage, but haven't been able to confirm or deny it, that NO gets $10/person every year for emergency food and water. If that's true do they just pocket the money or is this stored in a low area that got flooded? Regardless of if they do or not, as of Sat. morning, Buses would have been loading as much food/water as possible into that dome. AND the Gov. of the state could have shipped some trucks of water down and still gotten the trucks back safely.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Really? And you have your degree in emergency planning from where? To say that it simply can't be done without even trying to come up with ideas on how to do it is ridiculous.

Show me yours and I'll show you mine ;)


And no--I am not saying peoples vacations are more important--but exactly how long do you think it takes to go from the Carribean and drop these people off? There are still capacity restricts--you cannot exceed the capacity no matter the humantarian purpose.

I do suppose the vacationers can be left in any port--foreign country or otherwise--with no place to stay themselves--what do they do? B/c now--it is no longer a vacation.

Ships aren't exactly rockets--and having them go into the gulf of Mexico where there is a major hurricane brewing---you risk the very lives of those you are trying to say. That is my point. It is a noble suggestion--but a dangerous one. Heck--it is taking the medical ship that is on its way---1 week to go from wherever it is on the east coast to get to New Orleans.

(Don't have my ship captains license for ya, sorry ;)).



Coming out at the last minute and saying "Well, if you can't leave town, come to the Superdome" is not a plan. Especially when there wasn't enough food and water to handle everyone that came.

Can't find a quote--this is from memory--but they had National Guard bring MREs and water---to keep them alive during the storm. I want to say 350,000--but the # sounds too high--so I must be remembering another number--it was enough to feed for 2 days. They were also told to bring their own food and water as well--which a lot of them did. Could they have brought more--okay sure.

The dome has been used before--it was a designated shelter for the sick who couldn't leave and then opened to those who were well and couldn't leave. You start with those that can help themselves the least and then move your way up. The dome was opened within 12 hours of knowing that Katrina was a possibility of striking--and everyone had to be searched before entering. (as they woudl be to get on a cruise ship or an airplane).


I don't know the capacity of the airport, but the government can commandeer the civilian fleet.

That's not what I was asking--it can be commandeered--but you need capacity of time and space. If you can only move 10,000 --what exactly have you accomplished?--you still left 90,000 behind. And there were tens of thousands more who stayed home. You didn't really change anything and we would still be seeing what we are seeing on tv.

(And for mandatory evacuations--checking door to door--how do you check 7200 homes per hour).

[Duckfan-in-Chicago]

I don't know the capacity of the airport, but the government can commandeer the civilian fleet.

This I'm not too sure about, as most Cruise ships don't have U.S. registries. We were wondering about this the other day.

[peachgirl]

(I'd gladly take this up with you on another thread--FEMA is pretty screwed up--but I'm going to limit my discussion now to the preparations of an impending storm and not long term readiness re: levvies and the like).

Nah...there are enough threads about this subject as it is.

My post was directed at someone else as we were discussing how to make the improvements needed to prevent this from happening in the future.

[BuckNaked]

Show me yours and I'll show you mine ;)

I don't have one. But then again, I'm not claiming to be an expert on the issue and stating "It can't be done" as a fact.

As I said before, if we don't even try to plan for it, we'll never know if it can be done.

Yeah, they expected FEMA to provide the emergency management leadership, which is the sole purpose of FEMA. Let's say the local officials screwed up, but FEMA screwed up worse. This is clearly not a local issue. The damage is regional and widespread and the rescue and cleanup should be managed on a federal level, IMO, and handed off to the states at a later time. Do you think the governors should be calling the shots at this point and telling the guardsmen, the Navy ships, the active duty military what to do?

No, the governors should not be telling the guardsmen, Navy, military etc what to, that is part of FEMA's mission. Under the current law, FEMA is responsible for coordinating federal assistance. However, it is the responsibility of the state and local officials to tell FEMA what assistance they assistance they need. The local officials are the ones that are there, they are the ones that have to tell FEMA what they need. It is up to FEMA to make sure they get it.

If you want to work to change the law, I'll be there with you. But under current law, FEMA is supposed to coordinate the response, not determine what the response is supposed to be.

[BuckNaked]

This I'm not too sure about, as most Cruise ships don't have U.S. registries. We were wondering about this the other day.

I'm sorry, I wasn't clear. I'm talking about the civilian airline fleet.

As for foreign registered cruise ships, I doubt they could commandeer them, but they could certainly sign agreements ahead of time, including reimbursement terms, that would allow the ships to be used for lifesaving operations.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I don't have one. But then again, I'm not claiming to be an expert on the issue and stating "It can't be done" as a fact.

As I said before, if we don't even try to plan for it, we'll never know if it can be done.



I see your point. It is my opinion.

However--how is it mathematically possible with the time constraint.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I'm sorry, I wasn't clear. I'm talking about the civilian airline fleet.

As for foreign registered cruise ships, I doubt they could commandeer them, but they could certainly sign agreements ahead of time, including reimbursement terms, that would allow the ships to be used for lifesaving operations.



It is a good idea--but a hurricanes location can really screw all that up and the plan....probably would not work.

[Nancy]

Something that caught my eye in the original post...and I also remember the mayor saying this on Sunday morning.

Why can't the mayor order a mandatory evacution in a situation like this without a court order? I live way up north, we never have evacs. Is this a law everywhere? I heard him say that legally he couldn't order an evacuation and that surprised me. I thought the Mayor or Governor would be the ones that could legally order a mandatory evac.

[katerkat]

However--how is it mathematically possible with the time constraint.

Honestly, I don't see why. I watch a wee bit too much of the Discovery Channel and I saw a program on Hawaii's tsnaumi system. They can evacuate the entire coastline in less than 3 hours, I believe. And they also have the problem of determining how serious the threat would be before they get everyone moving - and yet they can still do it in such a short amount of time because they've planned it out and everyone knows what to do. I think the tsnaumi plan is put in the phone book every year.

It is essential for NO to have a plan because they are unlike other coastal towns. Biloxi was devasted, but it's not under water right now. And most of NO's problems is the fact that it's under water.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Something that caught my eye in the original post...and I also remember the mayor saying this on Sunday morning.

Why can't the mayor order a mandatory evacution in a situation like this without a court order? I live way up north, we never have evacs. Is this a law everywhere? I heard him say that legally he couldn't order an evacuation and that surprised me. I thought the Mayor or Governor would be the ones that could legally order a mandatory evac.

I'm wondering the same thing.

I don't know how it could not be within his power.

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Honestly, I don't see why. I watch a wee bit too much of the Discovery Channel and I saw a program on Hawaii's tsnaumi system. They can evacuate the entire coastline in less than 3 hours, I believe.

Impressive.

[Talking Hands]

What Lisa has explained absolutely true. We really don't know what is going to happen until about 48 hours prior to the storm and even with that the storm can go anywhere within the cone. On the news we were told that Katrina would probably make landfall on the Broward-Palm Beach county line and then head north-northwest across the state. Instead it hit at the Dade- Broward county line and went south-southwest. Completely opposite what was predicted. Why was there a good deal of damage in my area. Because people didn't prepare. The listened to the predictions and ignored the cone. The Keys were not even in the cone but were also hit. They never evacuate the Keys for TS conditions but do for hurricane conditions. They had no warning for this hurricane because they never put up hurricane warnings for them plus evacuating would bring them right up into the hurricane conditions. They had to ride it out. My husband did put up the shutters, we have had our supplies for months, and we were prepared. We didn't have any damage! We could have if the windows had not been shuttered. Our neighbors did.
Also government officials are hesitant to order evacuation too early and have people evacuate only to find it was a false alarm. When it happens too many times people start to ignore the mandatory evacuation orders. We have seen this in the Florida Keys frequently. It takes at least 3 days to evacuate everyone in the Florida Keys. They now do a phased evacuation. First day (72 hours in advance) they require all tourists to leave and all hotels close to tourists. They must leave. People start to prepare, then at 48 hours they tell the residents to start leaving. But even in a mannditory evacuation you can't force people to leave and some stay. It is their decision in the final analysis. And in some situations those in Key West are actually better off staying because it is high ground. The rest of the Keys can be flooded in a Cat 1 storm. BTW there is only one road in and out of the Keys until they get up to Key Largo and then there are 2 for a short while and it merges back to one.
People (all people, rich, poor, disabled, black, Hispanic, Anglos) are ultimately responsible for themselves and their own decisions on evacuation. Anyone in a hurricane prone area needs a plan in place to get out.
Also in Andrew it was predicted to turn north-northwest and hit the same area Katrina hit. Evacuations were required for the Miami Beach area and many evacuated to friends in South Dade and Kendall. Instead Andrew came directly west and didn't turn and hit from Florida City to Kendall. They ended up in the direct path of a Cat 5 storm. Our good luck was that Andrew was a realitively dry storm and moved over the area quickly so flooding was at a minimum. We had wind damage. We saw homes that looked like doll houses with the front completely gone. Others flattened. Flooding on the coast. The Burger King building had flooding and all its windows blown out. But those with shutters actually faired pretty well if they had CBS constructed homes. My house has weathered a Cat 1 and a Cat 5 and has stood. As long as we stay in this area we will remain in this house as it has proved itself to be safe.

[BuckNaked]

It is a good idea--but a hurricanes location can really screw all that up and the plan....probably would not work.

Well, NOLA apparently thinks it would be feasible, because that was part of their proposed plan prior to Katrina.

Why can't the mayor order a mandatory evacution in a situation like this without a court order?

I don't know about a mayor, but I'm pretty sure that a governor can order an evacuation with or without any kind of court order.

[mum4jenn]

Well I realize that Albany GA does not have as many people as NO but when the flood was going on we were originally given about 12 hours to evacuate. I think they were giving us until something like 2 pm on "the day" and then when they saw it was getting much worse and that some dams were going to give way police and firetrucks went through the neighborhoods at 3:30 am with sirens and loudspeakers telling people the mandatory evacuation was in effect and we had to get out immediately. The racial make-up is very similar to that of NO as well as the economic aspect. Most people got out (all the bridges were CLOSED so people had limited areas to go to) but yes there were the fools that refused and most of those drowned in their homes and attics. It just seems that NO could have done something using loudspeakers in the neighborhoods. NO there was not time to get out of the city but there would have been time for most to get to higher ground. I know there will always be those that decide to stay where they are as the same thing happened here. Also the water rose so fast some still were caught in it even they were trying to get out. The ones on the east side of the river had no access to any hospitals or doctors for days until the army helicopters arrived and had to land in a shopping center parking lot to take the sick and injured to the hospital. I remember FEMA response being slow then too but at least people had access to food and water almost immediately.

And before the resident experts jump on my comments I have already said I know that the population numbers are quite different. There is no way to compare trying to get 100,000 people out vs. getting a million or more out but it just seems more could have been done. I also know that is is impossible to pinpoint exactly where the hurricane is going to hit but don't you think they could have positioned troops 200-300 miles away from the general area and then no matter where it hit they would have been a bit closer?? You know like maybe the middle of Alabama or something and then they would have been closer and able to get in there to give out food and water sooner.

[MinnieM3]

As someone who has lived in "Hurricane territory" my entire life, one thing I've learned is that it's better to be prepared than be caught unprepared. I know anytime there's a storm brewing off the coast of Africa, my family always takes the proper steps necessary.

Waiting until a Hurricane Warning is issued is just plain stupid, no matter how you slice it. If a hurricane enters the Gulf, there's a damn good chance it will hit Louisiana. If you live in Louisiana on the coast, you always have to think that way. If you live in Florida on the coast, same thing. You just have to always be prepared.

There are thousands of buses in New Orleans. Seems to me someone should have started making contingency plans very early on, in the event that the hurricane comes their way. But no, they waited until a hurricane watch was issued, then a hurricane warning. By then, it's too late. Bridges have to close for safety reasons, and New Orleans is an island when its bridges are closed.

Scientists have been predicting this for years and right now, as cruel as it sounds, there are some that are saying "Told you so."

I place the blame squarely on the shoulders of the people who chose to wait until the last minute. If you're disabled, start making plans. If you're poor, go to your city hall and find out what means they are taking to get you out of the city. Don't try to ride it out. If you do, guess what, you might get stranded on the island of New Orleans until water recedes enough for trucks/buses to enter the area.

Seems to me like it's just common sense.

If you lived near a volcano, would you wait until you saw lava flowing to abandon your house? If you lived near a forest, would you wait until the fire is a couple of trees away before you leave?

The answer is no. And no matter what people say, I know you can't predict a hurricane's path, but you can sure well prepare for it in the event that it comes your way. If you don't that's your fault and nobody else's.

People pretty much DID have a major clue as to what was going on for a minimum of two FULL days to take action. You can get prepared in 48 hours, at least to some degree. two days is a lot of time! HOWEVER, much of the planning part for a hurricane is also mental..... if you've NEVER thought it all through, you'd be lost. you have to at LEAST have the plan in your head if you live in a hurricane prone area.

I don't think there was a great plan in place. I think it could have been handled better with a sronger, more forceful leader. But that's just my opinion.

[MinnieM3]

Also, can anyone remember what the evacuation total was for Floyd? I know it was a lot, but just can't remember. not trying to make a comparison, just more of a curiosity question.

[lillygator]

mandatory evactuations can be issed - but I am not sure wh