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View Full Version : New Ivan projection just out and it looks much better than it did 48 hours ago


disneybound2005
09-11-2004, 11:11 PM
I just though I would post the latest projections of where Ivan will hit. I posted about 24 hours ago how it looked like Ivan was shifting west some, well sure enough. Take a look at this:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

I think that if it keeps this up a little longer, it could miss Florida all together. You notice how over the last 48 hours the yellow strick probablity section has moved from being around Florida to being on the outside western edge of Florida. I would prefer that it just stalled and went away, but Florida doesn't need to get hit again.

I know its way to early to be jumping up an down, but it sure looks better than the projections Thursday.

KarlaG4Kids
09-11-2004, 11:17 PM
I sure don't wish Ivan on ANYBODY, but I especially hope he doesn't choose to torture the residents of Florida anymore.

Have you seen if there is anything out there following Ivan? I sure hope not.

Lets hope the Sunshine state gets back to the sunshine really soon.:sunny:

disneybound2005
09-11-2004, 11:26 PM
KarlaG4Kids,

Here is the atlantic ocean satellite shot:

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/atlanticoceansatellite_large.html

and the African satellite shot:

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/africasatellite_large.html

It doesn't look like there is anything behind Ivan.

Junebugwv
09-12-2004, 01:57 AM
Thanks for the update. I have been too busy getting ready for our trip to take time to look at disboards or weather. Now I check the boards and can't believe I've been missing so much news. Wow, we are supposed to arrive in Orlando around 3 pm on the 13th! The thought of not heeding the Mousesavers advice to reschedule is daunting, but if the storm is veering west, should we assume the airport will be open? I feel selfish worrying about the hassle of rescheduling air,car and resort when so many people have been affected by Frances and Charlie.
I guess I'm joining the others who have decided to wait and see...but time is running out!

disneybound2005
09-12-2004, 04:51 AM
This is still a very dangerous storm that still could do anything. As quickly as it went west enough to move the projected hit area, it could move east just as quickluy and be right back over southern and central Florida again. Nobody is saying that will happen, but we should know more once it completely moves over Cuba.

katienyc
09-12-2004, 07:53 AM
At this point, it does look better for Flordia (thank goodness), but we'll have to keep watching to see what happen. Say a prayer for the Cayman Island residents. They're right near the eye and on the path for this morning.

katie

tnkrbell
09-12-2004, 08:12 AM
I also do not wish a hurrican on ANYONE!! But I am sure happy with the new path!! :) I hope it fizzles out before land fall!!
Disney here we come!!

kbkids
09-12-2004, 08:13 AM
Not all of Florida - we're in the Panhandle of Florida, and now it's looking worse for us. Granted, Central Florida does not need another storm. However, there's a major shortage of plywood, and it's impossible to find generators because they are all down there, and it looks like we might actually be getting the worst storm out of the three. Kind of a scary thought!

tnkrbell
09-12-2004, 08:50 AM
kbkids- :hug: I hope that Ivans winds slow way down before and if he heads your way. Just be prepared. Here is one thing I wish I had get one of those cheepie black and white battery operated tvs they are like 30.00 or less. I really wish that is one thing we had through Frances. Still hopping you wont need any of it and Ivan fizzles!!

kbkids
09-12-2004, 09:00 AM
Originally posted by tnkrbell
kbkids- :hug: I hope that Ivans winds slow way down before and if he heads your way. Just be prepared. Here is one thing I wish I had get one of those cheepie black and white battery operated tvs they are like 30.00 or less. I really wish that is one thing we had through Frances. Still hopping you wont need any of it and Ivan fizzles!!

Good idea - with kids, I'd hate to be going too long without a TV. We're actually pretty much set and ready to leave. Anything above a 3, and I'm out of here - too close to the water!

DH is kicking himself for not getting a generator earlier, but we're stocked up on everything else. We bought it all last week when we weren't certain where Frances was going after it crossed over into the gulf. DH just came home last night and said that alot of his co-workers are going crazy trying to find plywood since it was all shipped further south. We've got a bunch of it laid up in the attic for better storage, and if it stays this strong, we'll just pull that down and nail it up on the windows.

That's the bad thing about hurricanes - when you're wishing it away from you, you're just wishing on someone else.

Rozzie
09-12-2004, 09:39 AM
Another Pensacola Resident looking for plywood. Walmart last night was cleaned out. I am sure they will stock up, but boy the shelves were EMPTY.
I will be working during the storm (Nurse at local hospital) I never have been through a hurricane without family members huddled around me. That was always the comforting thing during past hurricanes...
But for all of ya'll wondering, yes we are still planning on leaving sunday, sept 18, for poly. I figure if we don't have power, we can vacation to somewhere that does.
Just on pins and needles, and will be glad when this thing makes it into Gulf to get a better idea...........................

N&B'smom
09-12-2004, 09:41 AM
I hope it misses Florida too! That's for the update!

Shelby::MinnieMo

Time4disney
09-12-2004, 02:21 PM
I live right outside of New Orleans, on the eastern side in fact. We are also keeping a close eye out on Ivan. I hope it doesn't shift too far over our way! We can't handle a cat. 3 or higher storm since we are below sea level. Our local weathermen say they should know a lot more of where it may be headed by Monday afternoon. :rolleyes:

Miss Jasmine
09-12-2004, 02:41 PM
To the Pensacola and Panhandle people...I feel for ya. I am in Melbourne and last week (and watching Ivan this week) was/is not fun.

jwfla422
09-12-2004, 04:11 PM
Yes, ditto on that, but if there's anything good they are predicting that it should be weakening because there's a lot of shear in the gulf this week.

I know that doesn't help when a hurricane is heading your way but it sure is better than getting a Cat 5. I know when we thought Frances was going to hit as a Cat 4 and then it stalled and weakened that was a big relief for us even though it still did some damage. Those poor people on the west coast were really taken off guard by Charley, not realizing that sneaky turn and having it go from a cat 2 to a 4!

Please stay safe and hopefully they'll be supplies heading your way. Mother Nature is just darn mad at FL this year, striking us from every side!!

kbkids
09-12-2004, 05:30 PM
Just got back from Lowe's - Wow! What a madhouse!! We decided to run in and see what the chances were on getting more plywood. We lucked up, and there was actually 7 sheets left, so we snagged them. I didn't think we were going to get to the truck without getting mugged. My husband left me standing by them to go grab more stuff, batteries, etc. I had three guys looking at them, asked if they were mine, and kept eyeing them even after I said yes. One lady even offered me double the price of whatever I was paying for them. She even said, "It's okay - they're getting more in tomorrow, so you can come back then and get some." I told her politely that I was keeping them and she could come back herself tomorrow. She glared at me and stomped off. It was kinda scary. I told my husband when he got back to not leave me again - I was scared I was going to get mugged over plywood!

Rozzie
09-12-2004, 07:17 PM
:confused:
kbkids--congrats on your plywood, My mom was just telling me she saw an actual fight over the last gallon of water at sams.
I just found out I will have to spend 4 days at least at the hospital, spending the night and all. Being a nurse in natural disaster is the pits!
i am getting conflicting reports on when the strike will be. some say wed pm, some say thurs am. I am supposed to leave sunday for poly....which is still on...........
any amatueur scientist out there want to predict this thing, strike and time? Our guess is about as good as anyone else's
everyone stay safe!

angey77
09-12-2004, 07:38 PM
Well, wherever Ivan goes, unless it turns around completely and goes to Mexico or back out in the Atlantic, its right between me and my trip this weekend!
We called Disney today and was able to move our stay at AKL from Friday and Saturday to Saturday and Sunday with our AP rate. I'm not going to drive through the storm from Louisiana to Florida or deal with traffic from people driving back home in order to get to Disney. We're now leaving Friday instead of Thursday.

Simba's Mom
09-12-2004, 08:50 PM
Well, I for one am certainly not thinking that Ivan's path looks "better". While I don't wish it on Florida, now it's more likely to be headed our way. DH just measured our house for plywood and tomorrow, depending on the outlook, he may be making a trip to Home Depot. Maybe "better" for some, but cettainly not others of us! I'm not happy with this path-like some one said, I don't wish Ivan on anyone.

LuvN~Travel
09-12-2004, 10:42 PM
Yeah, I'm kind of thinking it doesn't look too good for N. Fla, and AL and GA. Wouldn't you know I live in AL. :(
Kim (praying for a MAJOR fizzle)

tnkrbell
09-12-2004, 10:45 PM
I am really hopping fot eh hurricane to fizzle!! I dont wish it on anyone!!

Princessmom2
09-12-2004, 11:05 PM
Joining the rest of you fellow northwest Floridians in hoping Ivan gets downgraded quickly. There is no plywood here either, and no plyloxs, they were all sent to South Florida. Channel 3 just said it will hit Pensacola either late Wed or early Thursday. Great. All schools are open tomorrow, but they are expecting them to be closed possibly by Tuesday. No generators here either.

I told my husband instead of going to my parents house up in North Alabama, we should go to Orlando and to DisneyWorld instead. He didn't agree with me. . .darn

SonicLogic
09-13-2004, 12:56 AM
Originally posted by kbkids
Just got back from Lowe's - Wow! What a madhouse!! We decided to run in and see what the chances were on getting more plywood. We lucked up, and there was actually 7 sheets left, so we snagged them. I didn't think we were going to get to the truck without getting mugged. My husband left me standing by them to go grab more stuff, batteries, etc. I had three guys looking at them, asked if they were mine, and kept eyeing them even after I said yes. One lady even offered me double the price of whatever I was paying for them. She even said, "It's okay - they're getting more in tomorrow, so you can come back then and get some." I told her politely that I was keeping them and she could come back herself tomorrow. She glared at me and stomped off. It was kinda scary. I told my husband when he got back to not leave me again - I was scared I was going to get mugged over plywood!

You might attempt (next time) to buy your lumber at a "lumber yard" rather than Lowes or Home Depot. Meredith & Sons Lumber is in your area and has plywood. Also, several other lumber yards have plywood in your area. Good luck!:earsboy:

SonicLogic
09-13-2004, 01:02 AM
Originally posted by Princessmom2
Channel 3 just said it will hit Pensacola either late Wed or early Thursday.

If you are talking about television station WEAR, then you are mistaken. Don't spread false rumors!

kbkids
09-13-2004, 01:07 AM
Originally posted by SonicLogic
If you are talking about television station WEAR, then you are mistaken. Don't spread false rumors!

Actually, I was just watching it a couple of hours ago myself, and that is what she said. However, I think she was meaning if it were to hit Pensacola, that it would be in that time frame. It caught me off guard too when I heard it because I thought the same thing, rewound it (gotta love that DVR), and I think that's what she was meaning. I don't think the poster was trying to spread a false rumor - just simply relaying what the news station had said. Gotta back her up because I obviously heard the same broadcast she did.

SonicLogic
09-13-2004, 01:18 AM
Originally posted by kbkids
Actually, I was just watching it a couple of hours ago myself, and that is what she said.

What was said? You have a recording of the broadcast, so be specific and quote it! Don't spread rumors!

tnkrbell
09-13-2004, 07:50 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/130858W5.gif

kbkids
09-13-2004, 08:02 AM
Thank you tnkrbell - enough said!

Now let's just pray that it will weaken!!

Tiggerlover91
09-13-2004, 09:15 AM
I'm telling you it's moving west, but from my understanding, it's the east side of the storm we DON'T want to be on. We'll have to see what it does, I don't wish this storm on anyone, but I sure don't want it hitting PCola or anywhere in our area. Let's just hope Ivan fizzles and DROPS DEAD!! :p

kbkids
09-13-2004, 09:23 AM
Originally posted by Tiggerlover91
I'm telling you it's moving west, but from my understanding, it's the east side of the storm we DON'T want to be on. We'll have to see what it does, I don't wish this storm on anyone, but I sure don't want it hitting PCola or anywhere in our area. Let's just hope Ivan fizzles and DROPS DEAD!! :p

You're right - it is the east side that's the most dangerous. When Opal hit in '95, we were out of power for a little bit, bad winds, etc., but we personally did not get that much damage - not like Navarre and that area as we were on the west side of Pensacola. We're in Pace now - but I don't envy you Gulf Breeze folks a bit at times like this. Good luck to you!

Princessmom2
09-13-2004, 10:32 AM
Thank you kbkids, that is what I heard her say. Wasn't trying to upset anyone.

All the lumber yards are getting in more plywood in the area, if you need anymore. Of course, we are one piece short so that's what I get to do today.

Projected path has moved westward, but they still don't know exactly what the storm is going to do. But Central Florida seems to be a little safer now, since landfall is being projected between Biloxi, MS and Panama City Beach. Hopefully, the western winds will really create a lot of shear and knock the storm down to nothing--we can hope!

cathy

erinz
09-13-2004, 11:59 AM
Originally posted by SonicLogic
What was said? You have a recording of the broadcast, so be specific and quote it! Don't spread rumors!


I think it's totally OK for you to be angry and disagree strongly with what was being said.......but please, try to do it with a little more respect....

harlock_jds
09-13-2004, 01:01 PM
Don't spread false rumors!

they aren't. the most current projection (as of 11 am) has Ivan hitting Pensacola pretty much dead on as a cat 3 sometime on the 16'th. Natually this may change but Pensacola is defently in the 3 day projected track.

again the best place to keep track of this thing is www.noaa.com, that's where all of the news people get their info from so you can see what they see without any undue hypeing.

Rozzie
09-13-2004, 05:20 PM
my fellow panhandlins'
stay safe. looks like we have a bullseye on us, especially pensacola. I looked at noaa this morning at 5am and saw that line go straight to pensacola. right now is looks like Destin or narvarre.
my mom just left. I can't tell you how hard it is to say goodbye to your mom and see her drive off. I am glad she is leaving and will be so much safer.
I called disney in tears, and they said don't worry about cancellation fees, they are waiving. so i am not cancelling our trip for this weekend till last minute.
to all of you who will still get to go next week, please ride the front cab of the monorail for my husband and I. We don't really now what our life will be like next week, esp, if we get hit cat 5. trying to stay optimistic, but it is really hard to do when they keep showing pcola as potential ground zero. i think the weather channel is having their way with me. Think i will just stick to noaa. my prayers are with everyone out there. don't forget us on gulf coast, looks like we will need them, having faith this thing will at least get downgraded....

Harambe
09-13-2004, 09:52 PM
God bless you, Rozzie! I'll be thinking of you and all your neighbors! I hope that Ivan farts out big time!

naominpaul
09-13-2004, 10:21 PM
ROZZIE-My DH and I are both nurses and we live in Mobile! I am also scheduled to work Wednesday and Thursday night! I will be thinking of you! Being away from your family during such a traumatic event is tough!...........As most everyone would agree, we're so thankful the Florida peninsula isn't going to get slammed again, but none of us were hoping for this either! We donated $ to the Red Cross disaster relief fund the other day, now looks like we may end up being on the receiving end!.........Much pixie dust to all............Naomi and Family

Tiggerlover91
09-13-2004, 10:37 PM
I don't think I've been this concerned about a hurricane since OPAL in 95. However, DH and I evacuated for that one. I've been quite worried all day, but only one thing keeps my frame of mind....and I hope it doesn't bother anyone, because that's not my intention, but it's the ONLY thing that keeps me calm.

MATTHEW 8:24-27 says:
WITHOUT WARNING, A FURIOUS STORM CAME UP ON THE LAKE, SO THAT THE WAVES SWEPT OVER THE BOAT. BUT JESUS WAS SLEEPING. THE DISCIPLES WENT AND WOKE HIM, SAYING, "LORD, SAVE US! WE'RE GOING TO DROWN!" HE REPLIED, "YOU OF LITTLE FAITH, WHY ARE YOU SO AFRAID?" THEN HE GOT UP AND REBUKED THE WINDS AND THE WAVES, AND IT WAS COMPLETELY CALM. THE MEN WERE AMAZED AND ASKED, "WHAT KIND OF MAN IS THIS? EVEN THE WINDS AND THE WAVES OBEY HIM!"

The Messiah calmed the winds and waves and that's what I'm asking Him to do for the panhandle...just calm the waters. :D :p Hey, it NEVER hurts to pray. ::yes::

Blessings,

Denise

harlock_jds
09-13-2004, 10:46 PM
that's what I'm asking Him to do for the panhandle

Why wait untill it's about to hit the panhandle? why not ask before it DSTROYED (in a worse way than it could in the states unless it hit N.O. as a cat 5) Grenada ?

Just saying it's a bit self centered to start wishing it away now after it's done so much damage and caused so many deaths.

.p.s
sorry to take it out on you tigger lover, I'm just tired of some people (not really you) being so selfish in their thinking about this. Heck the title of the thread is '' New Ivan projection just out and it looks much better than it did 48 hours ago" even while the storm is turning to an area of the country that could be MORE devastated (Mississippi and NO) than central Florida if it hit. It's just been bugging me for a while and it came out at you. sorry

kbkids
09-13-2004, 10:54 PM
Thank you Denise! That was touching. Our family is praying too that this storm will be weakened before it makes landfall.

We're leaving in the morning, and I just pray that we come home to an intact home - even if it is without power. :)

Tiggerlover91
09-13-2004, 10:58 PM
nevermind:( :confused:

SonicLogic
09-13-2004, 11:55 PM
Originally posted by erinz
I think it's totally OK for you to be angry and disagree strongly with what was being said.......but please, try to do it with a little more respect....

You see, that weather report was given by Kathryn Daniel and I know exactly what she said. I have it recorded too. Ms. Daniel never said Ivan would "hit Pensacola either late Wed or early Thursday."

Weekend Weather Anchor/Reporter
kdaniel@weartv.com

Tiggerlover91
09-14-2004, 12:05 AM
Originally posted by harlock_jds


.p.s
sorry to take it out on you tigger lover, I'm just tired of some people (not really you) being so selfish in their thinking about this. Heck the title of the thread is '' New Ivan projection just out and it looks much better than it did 48 hours ago" even while the storm is turning to an area of the country that could be MORE devastated (Mississippi and NO) than central Florida if it hit. It's just been bugging me for a while and it came out at you. sorry

Hey thanks. :p I appreciate you taking the time to apologize. I understand where you are coming from and in a manner of speaking you are right. The prayers should have started when Ivan first made landfall where he did, to spare all those lives. Not all countries are prepared like the US is for hurricanes, so when they get it...they get it! :worried: :sad1: I do hope it misses New Orleans...they are below sea level and that WILL NOT be pretty if it hits them.

Thanks again...and blessings to you! :wave:

jlima
09-14-2004, 01:20 AM
There is now a hurricane watch as far west as Morgan City LA/St Mary Parish. My family is in Terrebonne Parish which is one parish to the east and I am keeping my fingers crossed that Ivan fizzles in the next three days . . . every update I see has landfall moving farther and farther west and I don't like it one bit . . .

Miss Jasmine
09-14-2004, 08:58 AM
I just went through Frances, so my prayers go out to all of you in the storms path. I know when Frances was bearing down on us, I didn't pray for the storm to go away, but for the strength to deal with whatever happened. I was very blessed and didn't have any major damage to my house. I hope the same for you all.

I also know how it stinks to have to stay in the line of fire during a hurricane. DH is a police officer and had to work throughout Frances. Luckily I was able to seek shelter at our work (and even got to bring the cat!).

If anyone needs to talk...please feel free to PM me.

laossey
09-14-2004, 12:18 PM
Now, it looks like a new tropical storm has formed (Tropical Storm Jeanne) and could threaten Florida with the path they've given! The information indicates she may intensify so hopefully she will not become a hurricane that will threaten Florida or anyone else and start this whole cycle all over again! Look at noaa.com.