Tropical Storm Ivan *Now Hurricane Ivan*

[AlanUK]

Tropical Sorm Ivan has now formed in the Atlantic.

It is currently in the mid atlantic heading towards the Carribbean on a westerly track. Strengthening is likely over the next few days.

We will have to wait and see what happens with this one.

Alan.

[KayleeUK]

Not another one...It seems to have been a very bad year for hurricanes :(

[Miffy2003]

:(

[AlanUK]

In all reality it has been a very similar year to last year for Tropical Storm Activity.

Isobel was probably the most memorable storm of last year and that formed on the 6th September 2003. We now have Ivan forming on the 3rd so there is not a lot of difference.

What is different about this year is that the season took a lot longer to get going than in previous years, Ana formed on the 24th of April last year (which was very early) whilst Alex didn't form this year until July 31st (very late).

What this does mean is that we have had all of this years storms form in a very short space of time. That, along with the fact that 2 Hurricanes have already made landfall in the US (Frances will be 3) would give the impression that this has been an abnormally active season.

The prediction from the NHC at the start of the year was for this to be an above normal season, as all the seasons bar 2 (El Nino years) have been since 1995. The prediction is for 12-15 tropical storms this year 6-8 of which will become hurricanes 2-4 of which will be major hurricanes.

We are not at this level yet so I would expect a few more to come over the next month or so.

Alan.

[lucy_love_]

i blame global worming

[lucy_love_]

Originally posted by AlanUK
In all reality it has been a very similar year to last year for Tropical Storm Activity.

Isobel was probably the most memorable storm of last year and that formed on the 6th September 2003. We now have Ivan forming on the 3rd so there is not a lot of difference.

What is different about this year is that the season took a lot longer to get going than in previous years, Ana formed on the 24th of April last year (which was very early) whilst Alex didn't form this year until July 31st (very late).

What this does mean is that we have had all of this years storms form in a very short space of time. That, along with the fact that 2 Hurricanes have already made landfall in the US (Frances will be 3) would give the impression that this has been an abnormally active season.

The prediction from the NHC at the start of the year was for this to be an above normal season, as all the seasons bar 2 (El Nino years) have been since 1995. The prediction is for 12-15 tropical storms this year 6-8 of which will become hurricanes 2-4 of which will be major hurricanes.

We are not at this level yet so I would expect a few more to come over the next month or so.

Alan.

has there been a prediction to say how many will hit the US?

[AlanUK]

Hi Lucy,

As far as I know there are no predictions at the start of the season as to how many hurricanes will make landfall in the US.

It would be done on a best guess estimation if it was done at all as even the tracking of existing hurricanes is open to so much error.

Alan.

[AlanUK]

Ivan has been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane.

It is scheduled to strengthen through this week and move over Hispanola towards the Bahamas next weekend.

It's currenlt east of the lesser Antilles and due to hit them late on tuesday.

Alan.

[AlanUK]

Ivan is now a category 3 hurricane, that was a very quick intensification over the last few hours and shows how quickly these things can chage.

Ivan now holds the record for the strongest hurricane at such a southerly latitude.

Alan.

[SplashMtn]

:( :( :duck: I hope it isnt another to make landfall after charley and frances in such quick succession.

[AlanUK]

Ivan is now a Category 4 hurricane and is forcast to strengthen further. It could well reach category 5 status later on today.

The first air recon mission to investigate Ivan is scheduled for this evening BST so we should know more about the strength and organisation of the storm after that.

This one looks like it could hit the Carribean hard.

Alan.

[Tink78]

Any ideas if Ivan is due to hit Florida?

Looking at the predicted path it looks like it will.

We were supposed to fly Sat 4th to Orlando for our honeymoon, this has now been changed and we are going on 14th Sept, but now with this new hurricane forming we are starting to think we are never going to get our honeymoon.

The wedding was only 9 days ago but already feels like forever.

We are starting to think we might as well cancel and re-book to go somewhere else, but I am desparate for my Disney Honeymoon.

Not meaning to sound selfish, and I have been thinking of the poor residents all weekend, worrying about what will happen to their homes and families.

I keep checking the websites to see the news on what damage Francis caused.

If we re-schedule our trip to Orlando, when is safe?
When do the hurricanes tend to fade out?

Been to Orlando twice before in Sept and had no troubles at all!

Thanks

[AlanUK]

Hi Tink78,

The accepted window for the Atlantic hurricane season is May-Nov anually. The peak time for the strongest hurricanes is usually August/September as this is when the sea surface temperatures are highest and these are very important in the formation and continuation of a tropical cyclone.

It's impossible to say at this stage if Ivan will hit Florida, the weather models are looking like this might be the case but they often change dramatically when looking at predictions more than 2-3 days away. There is still a long way for Ivan to travel before it gets to Florida and a lot can happen in that time.

I would hold off on making any changes to my plans based on Ivan until I was more certain of where it looks be going. I would be more inclined to base any decision about my holiday at the moment on the devestation caused by Charley and Frances and how long it is going to take until things are back running at the standard I would want them to be.

I'll keep this thread updated with new info as and when I get it.

[Tink78]

Hi

Thanks for the info.
We are sitting here feeling so nervous & excited.

I feel nervous that our honeymoon might have to postponed again, and excited that next week we could be finally going on it!

It feels really weird.
I just wish I knew what we were doing.

I will be on here daily and checking all the weather reports etc.

Look forward to hearing any more news from you as you seem really knowledgable about the hurricanes.

Thanks

[lucy_love_]

i think my holiday is in ruins

boooooooooooooohoooooooooooooooooooooooo

:(

love

lucy

[KayleeUK]

Originally posted by Tink78
Look forward to hearing any more news from you as you seem really knowledgable about the hurricanes.

Tink

He just loves hurricanes :) I find it interesting too. Florida has really taken a battering this year.

[AlanUK]

Latest weather model predictions for Ivan.

http://uk.geocities.com/alan.s.robbins@btopenworld.com/storm_09.gif

Interesting to see at the moment that the models show a distinct split in where they think Ivan is going to go with the official NHC track heading straight for the Florida Peninsular whilst the UKMET model has Ivan continuing to travel west towards Central America.

There will be another update tomorrow morning.

[Feralpeg]

From a person that has experienced two hurricanes in the past month, I really hope Ivan goes elsewhere. Florida is pretty battered at this point. The areas of Orlando that were damaged severly by Charley took a pounding again with Frances. Kissimmee is in bad shape. The east coast from Daytona down to Vero Beach is a total disaster. So far, the loss of life seems to be less than Charley. People listened to the warnings and evacuated. Since it hit the entire state, that wasn't an easy task. Many people drove to Georgia. At this point, we have curfews. Some looting has occured in the evacuated areas. They are slowly letting people back in along the coast if they can prove they live there. We had many tornado warnings this afternoon as the outer bands of Frances finally passed. It will be a long time before Florida recovers from this hurricane season.

[Tink78]

Same for us Lucy.
This was supposed to be our honeymoon....imagine that!

We got married 9 days ago, and since then have had to come back to work and it doesn't even feel like we got married.

This isn't how you are supposed to spend the few weeks after your wedding day!

When are you due to go?

We were supposed to go on 4th, but got cancelled and had to re-book to 14th.

I checked this morning and Ivan doesn't look as though it will hit Orlando now, the direction has changed but we will have to see.

xx

[lucy_love_]

hi tink poor u

we are flying on the 13th but it is very worrying. its awful to hear about the looting, thats shocking. i really hope it doesnt hit.

anyway if things go ok well be there at the same time. were staying at akl. did i read somewhere you are too?

anyway good luck 2 all with this hurricane thing. chanting little chants that it goes somewhere else.

love

lucy

:wave2:

[Tink78]

Hi

We were supposed to be at AKL in a Savannah Room however because our original honeymoon got cancelled we had to re-book and couldn't get in there, so had to down grade to Coronado Springs.

We will get money back though as it's a cheaper holiday, as long as we actually get to go this time.

I checked this morning, and I have to say it's not looking very good.
Ivan is due to hit the south coast of Florida Monday/Tuesday next week, so will prob get to Orlando by Wednesday so even if we do get there we will probably have to go through the hurricane.

I feel really, really down this morning.
I know it's just a honeymoon but this is supposed to be the happiest few weeks of our lives and all we have done is bicker and get upset as we don't have a clue what's going to happen.

I just have to keep praying that it doesn't hit.

The poor people of Florida aren't going to cope very well with another hurricane!

Good luck with your holiday at AKL.
Hope it goes smoothly for you.
xx

[AlanUK]

Hurricane Ivan is back up to a category 4 storm with 135mph sustained winds. It smashed through the island of Grenada yesterday and initial reports are not good from there.

The weather models have now shifted the track back to the east with Jamaica looking like it might take a direct hit.

The thing that strikes me at the moment with the forcast runs is that once past Cuba Ivan looks to be taking a very similar path to Charley. This is certainly not good, as Florida is really going to struggle to take another hit in this area from a powerful storm.

It is still quite a long way off and as always there is a lot of room for error in these models outside of 2-3 days. It definitely looks like Ivan is headed for the Gulf of Mexico on a northwesterly track though :(

Here are the latest tracks for information

http://uk.geocities.com/alan.s.robbins@btopenworld.com/storm_09_2.gif

[MizzPrincezz]

here is the latest map from the weather channel.com



http://www.cliparthost.com/accounts/mizzpsyche/auctionimages/ivan.jpg


http://www.cliparthost.com/accounts/mizzpsyche/auctionimages/namekiddietogsauctions.gif

[Tink78]

It certainly looks like it's going to turn and hit Florida then doesn't it?!

This is awful, awful news.

[MizzPrincezz]

Yeah however it is still early days they can give a more precise forecast over the next two or three days. Just hope it misses Florida ::yes:: ::yes:: ::yes::

Such a shame for all those people there they have suffered enough. :worried: :worried:


http://www.cliparthost.com/accounts/mizzpsyche/auctionimages/namekiddietogsauctions.gif

[Feralpeg]

Tink78, I don't know if this will help. I stayed at AKL during hurricane Frances. Even though I live in the Orlando area, we thought it would be safer and more comfortable to stay at Disney. We felt very safe during the entire storm. The Disney staff went to great lengths to make sure the guests were comfortable. They provided entertainment as long as possible once the storm began. There was more than enought food available. I know that being cooped up in a hotel doesn't sound like fun. If you have to do so, at least you will be in a great place. Frances was a very slow moving storm. It started Friday night and did not let up until Monday morning. It doesn't appear that will be the case with Ivan. That storm is really moving. If it hits here, it will be like Charley. It will come and go in a matter of a few hours. That's not to say it won't cause damage, but Disney is really great at getting things up and running very fast. For your sake and for those of us in Florida, I'm really praying that Ivan goes another direction.

[Tink78]

Thank you for that.
It made me feel better (or is that the bag of candy I am eating!!).

I hope that your home wasn't badly damaged or anything.

We are no longer staying at AKL as our honeymoon got postponed and then we couldn't get a room there, so we are now staying at CS.

We are due to fly Tues at noon UK time (so 7am US time).

We are keeping our fingers crossed.

I hope for your sakes that Ivan doesn't go to Florida.
You guys have suffered enough already.
xx

[lucy_love_]

eeeeeeeeeeeeeks

[AlanUK]

Hurricane Ivan has now intesified again and has made it to Category 5 status with 160mph sustained winds. Not very many hurricanes reach this status and it will probably be difficult for Ivan to maintain this strength for long. Ivan is likely to remain a very strong hurricane though of at least Category 4 status even when he undergoes some weakening.

The models are still shifting him about as well but are again as of this morning in agreement that he will pass directly over Jamaica on Friday. After that they diverge slightly but the agreement seems to be at the moment that Ivan will make landfall in SW Florida around the Naples area.

This one really needs to change direction before then. Two hurricanes in close succession was bad enough but three is going to be a potential catastrophy.

There is a chance that going over Jamaica and Cuba could weaken Ivan slightly but looking at what happened with Charley there is always time for a re-intesification before landfall anyway.

The best hope is that like Frances, Ivan will encounter some wind shear causing him to weaken significantly. This is difficult to predict though and it unlikely we will know much about it until/if it start to happen.

I would expect the authorities in Florida to start putting their evacuation and emergency plans back in action again soon.

As I said before though I really hope this one takes a turn east or west from the predicted track.

Latest weather model predictions....

http://uk.geocities.com/alan.s.robbins@btopenworld.com/storm_09_3.gif

[florry]

Feralpeg - we were also in AKL for Frances ! They were very good at keeping us updated with the situation and kept a very calm athmosphere throughout.

We heard some dreadfull stories at the airport yesterday, from people who were not so fortunate,

We can confirm that the hotel that our son is staying at now - Travelodge Maingate on th US 192 - were awfull during Frances, not laying on any food or making provision for loss of power. The staff did not appear to know what to do in the event of frances hitting really hard.

Florry

[Feralpeg]

Well, the bad news just keeps coming. They are now telling us that we could very well be hit by Ivan. They are currently evacuating the keys. They are still saying Ivan could turn, but the current model has it coming ashore in south Florida and moving up through central Forida. They say that by the time it would reach central Florida, the winds should only be 90 mph. ONLY!! I can't complain. My damage has been minimal. I feel so bad for the other people here whose homes are a mess. We are now having flooding problems as well. Since the storm, the snakes and alligators are in areas where you wouldn't normally find them. I was walking down our street with my sister and DD the other night. My sister almost stepped on a big black snake. It was just wiggling up the sidewalk.

Let's all think very positive thoughts. Maybe it will turn.

[Tink78]

Hi,

I am so sorry.
I just saw the updated chart too, and it doesn't look good at all does it?!

I will keep my fingers crossed for you all.

In the mean time, we are now currently due to fly to Sanford on Tues 14th, so if you hear anything about airport closures please let us know asap, as we will need to re-schedule our honeymoon asap if our flight gets cancelled again.

We want to re-schedule it as early as possible, as there will be 100's of people trying to do the same thing.

I will PM you my home email address too in case you hear anything over the weekend, as I can't check my work emails from home.

Thank you for the updates, and I hope everything is going to be ok.
My cousin is travelling to Orlando by plane as we type, so I hope he doesn't get too badly affected by Ivan.

What a total nightmare this is becoming, but even after all this you won't keep me away from Florida.
I love it there, and although I am starting to feel bitter towards hurricanes for trying to spoil my honeymoon, today I feel more positive and am not going to let it ruin it!
Once we finally get to Orlando I am going to enjoy myself so much, and I am going to appreciate the fact that I actually got there much more than if we hadn't been cancelled twice!!

I hope everyone who is living out there is going to be ok, and lets all hope that this is the last one!!

[KayleeUK]

Since the storm, the snakes and alligators are in areas where you wouldn't normally find them

:earseek:

[MizzPrincezz]

Originally posted by Feralpeg
Since the storm, the snakes and alligators are in areas where you wouldn't normally find them. I was walking down our street with my sister and DD the other night. My sister almost stepped on a big black snake. It was just wiggling up the sidewalk.

Let's all think very positive thoughts. Maybe it will turn.

GEEZ.......that would be it for me :faint: :faint:

Im terrified of snakes...PLeeeease go away IVAN

I need a group hug :grouphug: all this stressing about these hurricanes is really getting me down :(

http://www.cliparthost.com/accounts/mizzpsyche/auctionimages/namekiddietogsauctions.gif

[Tink78]

I know how you feel!

This is mad.
I think that by Sunday we will have our honeymoon cancelled and re-booked again!!

I just wish that I knew when we were going, and then even when we do get there, is there going to be another one!!
I hope not!

I don't think Florida can take much more of this, and I know my stress levels are up.

It's so hard packing and planning for a holiday that might not even happen yet.

Oh well, there is still time for Ivan to bugger off somewhere else.

Fingers crossed everyone!!
:(

[lucy_love_]

omg i am getting stress wrinkles.

its not going to hit its not going to hit its not going to hit its not going to hit its not going to hit its not going to hit.

repeat with me. its not going to hit.

everybody chant

ITS NOT GOING TO HIT.

ok thats all i can say at the mo.

love

lucy

:sad:

[flutterby]

plenty prayers for all honeymooners, holidayers and most importantly all floridians xxx
May God smile down on us and the sun shine :sunny:

[Miffy2003]

My thoughts are with everyone affected by this. I have heard tonight on the radio there has been devastation and loss of life in the Carribean :(

Thinking of you all :grouphug:

[lucy_love_]

thats awful. hopefully it will weaken soon. its killed some people in grenada too hasnt it. what with this and russia and bombs and other hurricanes and stuff it makes me just want to cry.

:sad: :sad1: :sad: :sad1:

[florry]

Just been watching Fox news channel on Sky TV

Florida Keys are being advised to evacuate. Its not looking good !

[AlanUK]

Hurricane Ivan has weakened overnight and is now back down to category 4 strength, just! He still has maximum sustained winds of 145mph :earseek: He is forcast to strengthen again as the current weakening is due to an eyewall replacement cycle which is due to complete this morning. Hurricanes usually strengthen once this process is complete.

He will be travelling over Jamaica today, the cayman islands tomorrow and onto Cuba on saturday. Depending on how he interacts with these land masess we could see a weakening of Ivan by Sunday. However as none of these islands are very large it is not very probable.

Once through Cuba the weather models are much more in agreement after last nights runs that Ivan is headed for Florida with a much better grouping of the forcast tracks. The official track from the NHC has been adjusted to the west slightly and now takes Ivan up the West coast of Florida.

The last few days have seen a bit of a pendulum effect with these tracks though as the predicted path is moved east and then west between runs. I would expect to see further small variations for the next day or so. The path could threfore eventually take Ivan as far west as the New Orleans area or over the southern tip of Florida towards the Bahamas.

Latest forcast tracks are....

http://uk.geocities.com/alan.s.robbins@btopenworld.com/storm_09_4.gif

[KayleeUK]

Thanks for the update.

Thinking of those poor people in Ivan's path.

[Feralpeg]

I'd always dreamed of retiring and moving to Florida. Well, I'm here now and so are the hurricanes. Whats the weather like in England? Maybe I'll move over there!

[Tink78]

It has been nice, but today it's a bit grey and they are saying it's going to be the start of the autumn for us now.

For the majority of the time you are better off weather wise than we are, with the exception of at the moment!!

Is there any news on the rest of Florida, other than the keys?

The current path show it will hit mid Florida on Tues am.
Do you think the airports etc. will close again?

[Feralpeg]

Tink, I'd be very surprised if the airports don't close. Unless Ivan heads way out to the Gulf, most of Florida will feel the effects of Ivan. It is a very large hurricane. It is more the size of Frances than Charley. The only saving grace is that at this time, it is moving quickly. The teachers at DD's school are already telling the kids that they will most likely be out of school at least Monday and Tuesday. If Ivan makes landfall on the west coast of Florida and moves inland and the eye passes to the west of Orlando, we will be on the side that gets the worst winds. As much as I hate to say it, I think you will have to reschedule again. I'm so sorry.

[Tink78]

That's what we thought, but it's so annoying as our holiday company won't let us re-book until the flight actually gets cancelled!

We don't mind re-scheduling now.
We have waited this long, another week or so won't hurt us, but we just want to know.

We have Discovery Cove and the Backstage Magic Tour booked so if we do have to re-book the holiday we need to re-schedule these also and we want to re-schedule these as quick as poss.

Grrrrrrrrr.......why do the Engligh holiday companies take sooooo long to sort it out this end!!

[AlanUK]

Hurricane Ivan has re-intesified slightly overnight with sustained winds up to nearly 155 mph which makes Ivan a strong Category 4 storm bordering Category 5.

Ivan is currently just South of Jamaica having taken a slight westerly turn prior to hitting the island. Things will still not be good in Jamaica. The UK news is doing quite a good job of covering this at the moment too :)

Ivan is predicted to move more to the northwest over the next couple of days, travelling over the west of Cuba and continuing a northerly turn towards Florida and the southern states.

The weather models have again moved the track to the west slightly with Ivan tracking up the west coast of Florida just out to sea before making landfall towards Tallahassee.

I would expect to see further adjustments to this track over the next couple of days.

http://uk.geocities.com/alan.s.robbins@btopenworld.com/storm_09_5.gif

[Miffy2003]

Alan, many thanks for all your updates.

[Netty]

thanks Alan!

[Feralpeg]

Hey, guys! Things are looking a little better for central Florida. Ivan is still moving NW. They thought it would be turning by now. They current track takes it further west of the coast. If it takes this track, we will only get a glancing blow. Rain and a little wind I can take. I'll try to keep you posted. TINK78, I see a honeymoon in your near future!

[AlanUK]

Ivan is back up to category 5 status, and has been classified as having the 6th lowest central pressure of ANY atlantic basin hurricane.

He is currently tracking towards the Cayman Islands where he is due to cross today before moving onto the west of Cuba. He has slowed down quite a bit over the last couple of days and is currently moving at just 8mph.

As Feralpeg has stated above the predicted track has been moved to the west again and at the moment central Florida looks like it will escape any major problems with this one :) which is good news.

Currently the predicted tracks take Ivan into Florida just west of Panama City. The forcast tracks are still predicted to change over the next couple of days and if they continue to be adjusted west then Ivan could be hitting the New Orleans area which would be absolutely devestating as much of that area is very prone to flooding :earseek:

It's still to early to say, the latest forcast tracks are....

http://uk.geocities.com/alan.s.robbins@btopenworld.com/storm_09_6.gif

[AlanUK]

Ivan passed over the Cayman Islands last night with the eye passing just 20 miles from the islands.

Ivan continues to strengthen and weaken fluctuating between category 4 and category 5. He is currently Category 5 but could drop again in the next bulletin from the NHC.

The track continues to shift west (away from Central Florida) and all the models continue to shift the US landfall ever closer to the New Orleans area. The NHC official track remains to the east of all the other models but even that is drifting to the west on a daily basis.

The latest forcast tracks are....

http://uk.geocities.com/alan.s.robbins@btopenworld.com/storm_09_7.gif