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airlarry!
10-19-2003, 09:17 PM
Yes, it is time once again for our semi-semi-annual How Much Will the latest Disney (or Disney/Pixar) release bring in.

By popular demand, we are splitting the contest.

a) Guess the opening weekend in adjusted numbers--remember that Lilo got robbed by the media conspiracy against quality Disney animation ;)


b) Guess the final numbers from here to Dec 31, 2003.

Prizes? Of course...

First prize: One autographed copy of LandBaron's epic fourteen volume set of "Walt's Standard In A Nutshell."

Second prize: Superbowl ticket, autographed by RaiderMatt (tearstain included, no extra charge).

Third prize: Framed copy of the first Billion dollar bill earned by Michael Ei$ner, autographed by Cou$in Mikey himself (there may be a prize fee for that one).

Fourth prize: One week's stay at Poop Century Resort.

Fifth Prize: Two week's stay at Poop Century Resort. ;)

Sixth Prize: Autographed copy of a new screenplay by AV and Scoop, "Under the California Adventure Sun: The Cali Themepark Massacre"

Seventh Prize: Hand-blown Rose Colored Glasses designed by Peter Pirate himself ;)



My guess? $15 mill opening...$95 M total

emmagata
10-19-2003, 09:25 PM
I'll guess............................................. ............

still thinking.......................................... ..........

12 mil opening 105 mil total

I'm shootin' for the 5th prize!!!

Pooh67_68
10-19-2003, 09:31 PM
15.5 million opening
100 million total

DC7800
10-19-2003, 09:50 PM
Let's see...

$21 million opening weekend

$106 million total.

NorgeKathrine
10-20-2003, 08:53 AM
Okay, this is my first time ever guessing numbers like this... and I'm an eternal optimist. So I'll say...

$30 million opening weekend

$200 million overall


if I wind the rose colored glasses don't bother sending them... I already have my own pair :cool:

Peter Pirate
10-20-2003, 09:28 AM
I really need those Landbaron paper weights, so I'll play...

I think BB looks very good but it is a Saturday opening (meaning just a two day first weekend take)...So I'll enter in at 14M first weekend and 145M overall!

Golter
10-20-2003, 09:31 AM
The Saturday opening will be a tough call, but I'll go with 28.1 opening with a 175 million total.

Planogirl
10-20-2003, 09:34 AM
I'll go with a 17 million opening and 115 million total.

WDWHound
10-20-2003, 10:11 AM
22 Million Opening
130 Million total

Mouse Ears
10-20-2003, 10:58 AM
I'm expecting--

$24 million opening
$142 million by end of year.

I'll settle for seventh prize. The rose-colored glasses would be great for my next trip. I hear the park looks immaculate if you're wearing them...

DisneyKidds
10-20-2003, 11:00 AM
I bid a $1 opening weekend........................................... .........................ooops! This ain't the price is right :duck: . Actually, I'll take $16.5m for an opening, $90.5m total.

wdwguide
10-20-2003, 11:08 AM
My wild and uneducated guess is 18 million for the opening weekend, and 110 million total.

I predict this film will be a mixture of Lion King and Pocahontas in theme, filled with "A 10 year old kid ought to think this is so kewl" character personalities and at least one sidekick whose lame jokes, burping and farting fail to cover up the weaknesses and plotholes in the story.

jlambrig
10-20-2003, 11:10 AM
Hmmm, no competition until Elf on Nov 7 and no real direct competition until Looney Tunes on November 14.

Opening weekend is $19 million
End of year is $123 million

daannzzz
10-20-2003, 11:23 AM
Opening weekend. $19 million
By "Due date" I will put what first came to mind. I am not trying to outbid ala the Price is Right! ;) $201 miliion.

RoutemanDan
10-20-2003, 03:43 PM
$12.5 mil opening w/end
$123 mil by the end of the year.

DancingBear
10-20-2003, 04:06 PM
I have no guesses, but a question---what numbers would be considered to be a success for Brother Bear? I've seen a rough $100 million production cost figure.

Peter Pirate
10-20-2003, 04:22 PM
Good question Bear...And this really is the crux of the thing, isn't it? Unfortunately, it's also subjective from our laymans POV.

I would guess that anything substantially above the initial costs for its domestic run would be considered a hit, say 125M on 100M cost? At this pont they would have worldwide totals and the DVD release as gravy. Plus the setup for the always lucrative direct to DVD sequel... What do you think?

BTW, where did your cost estimate come from? A movie source online?

Golter
10-20-2003, 04:24 PM
IMO I would say anything below 100k would be a complete failure anything over 200K would be a roaring success, anything in between will be open for debate.

airlarry!
10-20-2003, 04:31 PM
I should not have to respond to anyone who fails to hazard a guess ;)

However, I think it depends: in which black leather chair are you sitting?

From industry analysts? Anything above production costs (and a free week's pass to Orlando) will get a favorable response, considering the overseas, DVD, plush, etc.

From Michael Ei$ners? Anything less than The Lion King numbers is a failure...although I bet he doesn't have a single movie to his credit at Paramount that did LK numbers (I know, someone will prove me wrong, that there is one, but who cares? The perception that he himself built is quiet movies that made a profit).

From $teve Job$ chair? Anything less than Monsters Inc numbers will be a failure in his eyes, more proof that they have Walt's ink in their pens than WDFA does.

From my eyes? $150+ up against That Elf Movie is a big hit for Disney.

DancingBear
10-20-2003, 05:28 PM
Originally posted by Peter Pirate
BTW, where did your cost estimate come from? A movie source online? BoxOfficeMojo doesn't show any estimate at this time. I did a Yahoo! search "Brother Bear Production Costs" and found an LA Times Article (on someone else's site) about the demise of 2D animation, which says in passing:

The film, which opens in Los Angeles and New York on Oct. 24 and premieres nationwide Nov. 1, is one of only two remaining major 2-D movies in the company's lineup. It will be followed by next year's Home on the Range. Each film will cost about $100 million. http://www.concordmonitor.com/stories/market/bizstori2003/100303disney_digital_2003.shtml

gtrist4life
10-21-2003, 04:40 AM
Again another mostly uneducated, but optimistic guess - $27 mill Opening - $148 mill mill thru Dec. 31, 2003 -

Peace G4l

HB2K
10-21-2003, 05:36 AM
I'll chime in at 9 Mill open, 80 million total.

ArnyVee
10-21-2003, 07:33 AM
Why not throw a guess out there, huh?

Let's go with 16.9 Million Opening Weekend and 86 Million overall by the end of December. :(

Killer Fish
10-21-2003, 10:00 AM
I will say 17 million opening weekend and 85 million total. I hope that I am wrong though!

goofyguy1958
10-21-2003, 01:50 PM
I bid $13.9 Mil opening weekend and a grand total of $113.9 mil.

goofyguy1958
10-21-2003, 01:56 PM
I bid $13.9 Mil opening weekend and a grand total of $113.9 mil.

momoftwins
10-22-2003, 06:43 PM
Opening 18.8Mil. Total 132Mil

Mortimer Mouse
10-23-2003, 02:59 AM
14.9 weekend total, 104.5 all said and done.

raidermatt
10-23-2003, 12:59 PM
Guess I'd better take a shot at holding onto my tear-stained stub...

The Saturday opening will hold down the opening weekend, but not as much as it would for a more teen or adult oriented film.

$18.8 million Opening
$135 million by eoy.

Looking only at the themes as I understand them to be portrayed, I see the potential for a big holiday hit. However, Disney's recent past of inconsistent execution has tempered my expectations. I'm still going with a nice success though.

Bob O
10-23-2003, 04:50 PM
My guess is a 13 million opening with a US total of 78 million.
I hope it does better but their is competiton from other movies and disney's animated films havent done great as of late.

DisneyKidds
10-24-2003, 08:51 AM
HB - lowest opening guess. Bob O - lowest total take estimate. Hey, you can both lay claim to being least optimistic about this Disney offering.......................................and it wouldn't be the the R&N Board we all love it it weren't that way ;). The only question is.......................will AV trump you both ::yes::.

Question for all you prognosticators. How do you think Bear will stack up against JB2, box office wise?

crusader
10-24-2003, 11:25 AM
14 mil opening.

85 mil thru the end of year.

raidermatt
10-24-2003, 01:56 PM
According to Box Office Mojo, JB2 topped out just under $48 million.

Brother Bear should beat that easily. It's a "safer" bet than Treasure Planet, so unless its just a bad film, it should easily surpass the JB sequel.

DisneyKidds
10-24-2003, 02:03 PM
Brother Bear should beat that easily.
Agreed. I figured my BB estimate between 25% of Nemo's take and 200% of JB2's.

airlarry!
10-26-2003, 07:19 PM
Okay. Here's how we stand so far. Still plenty o' time to get yours in.....still waiting on Scoop, Hope, Yoho!, Baron, and many others, including Lord Dairth Voice, to chime in.

There's still a few days before the poll will close. We have added a new 8th prize....one year's supply of Mickey Head Butter.

AirLarry! 15 - 95
emmagata 12- 105
pooh67_68 15.5- 100
dc7800 21- 106
NorgeKatherine 30- 200
The Pirate 14- 145
Golter 28- 175
Planogirl 17- 115
The WDWhound 22- 130
MouseEars 24- 142
DK 16.5- 90.5
wdwguide 18- 110
jlambrig 19- 123
daannnzzzzzz 19- 201
RoutemanDan 12.5- 123
DancingBear 0- 0.0 ;)
gtrist4life 27- 148
HB2K 9- 80
ArnyVee 16.9- 86
Killer Fish 17- 85
goofyguy1958 13.9- 113.9 (twice but only one entry counts) ;)
momoftenwins 18.8- 132
Mortimer Mouse 14.9- 104.5
RaiderMatt 18.8- 135 (who *will* have to give up the ducket, tears and all)
BobO 13- 78
Crusader 14- 85

Jasminesmommy
10-26-2003, 08:34 PM
26 mil opening and 116mil by end of Dec.

hopemax
10-27-2003, 12:01 AM
Some of the reviews I've seen from people who have gone to El Capitan are that the movie is pleasant enough, but certainly not "Disney's best." Considering how quickly things come to video/DVD these days, and that there are plenty of other movie choices this holiday season, I think many people who don't have kids ages 3-9 will stay home and put it on their Netflix list. Those people are crucial for generating the higher box office numbers.

Opening: A respectible 2 day total of $18.5 million
Total: An unembarassing, but not as good as the "CGI is gold" numbers... $118 million

cristen
10-28-2003, 12:59 PM
Can someone please tell me I am stupid and this is not right! But I saw this thread, and everyone was guessing in the millions. When is the official opening weekend? Because on Box Office Mojo, it says Brother Bear did 291,000 this weekend. This has to be wrong.

DisneyKidds
10-28-2003, 01:07 PM
I think BB opened on limited screens in NY and I think LA this past weekend. It does not open in wide release until Saturday, which I guess would be considered it's opening weekend. Of course if someone is off by 291,000 on their estimate they may say they were robbed :hyper:. Technically, the $1 Price is Right strategy would have won the bet because it did "open" on some screens last weekend.

WDWHound
10-28-2003, 01:09 PM
Originally posted by cristen
Can someone please tell me I am stupid and this is not right! But I saw this thread, and everyone was guessing in the millions. When is the official opening weekend? Because on Box Office Mojo, it says Brother Bear did 291,000 this weekend. This has to be wrong.

Mojo's numbers are correct, but what they don't mention was that it was only in 2 theaters. These numbers are for the limited release (2 theaters in NewYork and LA). The full release is this weekend in 2000 theaters.

DisneyKidds
10-28-2003, 01:12 PM
Yeah, I just noticed that limited release was 2 screens. I wonder if that is accurate. If the $145,970 take per screen is accurate that is rather impressive.

HB2K
10-28-2003, 01:43 PM
Kidds-

Let's wait to see what happens...there's just too much competition, the movie is opening late in the weekend (why not on Friday?) and quite frankly I haven't heard the buzz about the film in the manner that Nemo or Lilo had.

cristen
10-28-2003, 02:05 PM
Thanks guys, I thought maybe that had to be the case. I figured that it couldn't have been the official release, but I didn't see anywhere about the two theaters. That makes more sense.

DisneyKidds
10-28-2003, 02:08 PM
HB - I agree we need to take a wait and see attitude. I don't think that $145k per screen means much in the general scheme of things.

airlarry!
10-28-2003, 03:21 PM
I apologize.

I meant to ask for numbers for wide release, coming up this weekend.

However, since HBK2 guessed $9 million, I guess technically he wins. We'll need some kind of exchange prize.

Got it.

HB2K wins an exclusive Mission:Space travel pack, complete with personalized airplane-style projectile pouch, a/k/a "barf bag."

HB2K
10-28-2003, 07:57 PM
OK I say Double or Nothing!

Testtrack321
10-28-2003, 08:29 PM
$65-80 mill

I really think this thing will flop.

Changed total

jlambrig
10-29-2003, 07:00 AM
Originally posted by HB2K
Let's wait to see what happens...there's just too much competition, the movie is opening late in the weekend (why not on Friday?)

Gee, I don't know...maybe because a significant portion of their market will be out trick or treating?

I am surprised you haven't issued some complaint that Disney tied the opening to Halloween just to sell more Nightmare Before Christmas snow globes.

HB2K
10-29-2003, 08:48 AM
I am surprised you haven't issued some complaint that Disney tied the opening to Halloween just to sell more Nightmare Before Christmas snow globes.

Ah....who's "flaming" who now? At least mine was a response to someone....you're was un-provoked.

All Aboard
10-29-2003, 09:59 AM
17 / 85

jlambrig
10-29-2003, 10:25 AM
Originally posted by HB2K
Ah....who's "flaming" who now? At least mine was a response to someone....you're was un-provoked.

unprovoked....uh, yeah, right...

moving on

BRERALEX
10-29-2003, 10:44 AM
15/ 70

HB2K
10-29-2003, 02:44 PM
unprovoked....uh, yeah, right...

moving on

Uhmmmm did I miss something here? Please quote me on this thread where I provoked you....my posts have been a simple numbers prediction and a response to kidds...

so please quote me where you were provoked?

EDIT: OK I just double checked and saw nothing (but I did see a lot of rose colored glasses comments...how about going after them J?).

TheWho
10-30-2003, 07:15 AM
There's trouble. I know it's out of the Mouse's hands, but the weekend weather looking OUTSTANDING (near 70) here in the Northeast. Along with trick or treating, the movie viewership might be impacted.

Of course, I'll drag my kids there.
So I predict at least $30 dollars (2 adult tickets and 2 child tickets)

Peter Pirate
10-30-2003, 08:39 PM
At Yahoo, 8 critics give it a c+ while 308 viewer responses give it an A-...Ah, who to believe...pirate:

HB2K
10-30-2003, 10:14 PM
Pirate-

It depends on what you're trying to find out.

If one is trying to find out if you should see the movie, critics & reviews never help me because liking or disliking a movie is so personal. Heck someone here (excuse me for not remembering who) LOVED Sinbad while it basically got trashed in the reviews I remember...

AND...

if one is trying to determine whether the movie is going to be a success or not, ratings aren't the end all be all. It's just conjecture at this point anyway...

So I guess time will tell!

DancingBear
10-31-2003, 07:55 AM
It's all the way up ;) to 40% on rottentomatoes.com (better than the 28% it was lingering at for a while).

I agree with the Who that the good weather on the East Coast (and last I checked in Chicago and such as well) will hurt things. Cold, wet weather would definitely send us with our 3yo straight to the mall. As it is, we'll be taking him somewhere outside to run off energy.

HB2K
01-05-2004, 06:22 PM
How about those guesses!

I was way off on the opening weekend, but was much closer on the total take....

airlarry!
01-06-2004, 07:27 AM
It's done and official. Box office mojo says a take by Dec 31 of $82 million dollars so that means:

The winner of a year's supply of Mickey headed butter:

Handblown Rose Colored glasses to: BobO

AV & Scoop's new Cali screenplay goes to : DK

The poor sap who is forced to spend two weeks at Poop Century is....HB2K (enjoy your visit, HB)

The luckier sap who only has to spend one week there is....Arnyvee

Mikey's first billion dollar autograph was won by....Crusader

Superbowl ticket to...KillerFish

And the winner of this year's contest is....GCurling with a guess of $85m. Enjoy your LandBaron's Encyclopedia of Walt's Standard in a Nutshell.

Congratulations to all the winners, thanks to all the participants for playing, and big thanks goes to Cou$in Mikey for sheparding yet another Disney treasure through the pipeline of animated classics he has developed. This stunning box office take is right up there with the Jungle Book2:Electric Baloogaloo, and Milo's Revenge. Sleep well, Mikey, knowing you are the caretaker of a the glorious Disney animated heritage.