POTC $$ Guesses - daannzzz Wins!

[FriendsOfEeyore]

Let's start a thread about our thoughts on POTC and $ we think that it will gross thru the 1st four weekends, August 4th (thought about Labor day, but that was so hard and so far out when we did it for Nemo).

I just purchased my tickets to tomorrow's night 7:45pm show. Let the $$ roll-in for Disney (or should that be Touchstone. oops, not going there in this thread).

I am going to guess.... $145.3M

************************************************** **

So after 2 weeks, PoTC is at about $132M. Here is how we all faired in our guesses thru the end of the month (some chose total box office)

daannzzz $208
RyMickey $200+
MelissathePooh $175
PatriciaH $175
KNWViking $175 (by Labor Day)
d-r $172
Golter $165
FriendsofEeyore $145
Planogirl $140
dc7800 $130
hopemax $119
Another Voice $ 15 (Close, but no cigar... Thanks for the phone in vote).

It is really looking like Golter and the group at $175 had the most accurate guess. Good guessing...

[hopemax]

4 Week total?

$119 million,

I think people will say it was fun and not bomb at opening, but it will be not good enough to pull repeat viewings with its 143 minute run time, and I've heard a few comments that the second Tomb Raider is a lot better than the first, and I think it will pull away the teenage guy crowd.

[Golter]

I will go with 165 Million. With a 60 Million opening weekend (friday - Sunday)

[Lanshark]

After seeing Treasure Planet last night I have no idea what to expect for POTC. I was really surprised at how far below Disney standards TP was. Hopefully POTC will be a pleasant surprise.

[lrodk]

Most reviews so far have been quite favorable, which will no doubt help sales in it's opening week. After that it will have to stand on it's own merits. I'm watching it tomorrow night and look forward to enjoying what has been billed as a fun, action packed summer film. It may not be the best, but it promises to entertain, which is fine with me.

[KNWVIKING]

I thought T3 would do much better then the 78 mil in it's first six days. I was thinking PotC would do 175+ but now I'm second guessing myself. But I'll stick with 175 by Labor day. Not much else really big coming out, is there ?

[daannzzz]

$208,000,000.00

[d-r]

3 day $40
5 day $55
total $172

"Not much else really big coming out, is there ?"

lxg this week
bad boys 2 next week
Lara Croft and Tron Kids 3-D and seabiscuit the week after that
American Wedding the weekend after that
Freaky Friday the weekend after that :)

[DC7800]

About $130 million. No specific reasons, really. Although I hope the movie shatters all expectations, and that I am (hopefully!) being conservative, this seems realistic.

[Planogirl]

OK, I'll bite.

I'll say $140 million and this amount is partially due to me being hopeful. I read today that film totals are down in general this summer, Nemo not withstanding.

I'm looking forward to Pirates though! We plan on seeing it and LXG both which is a rarity for us.

[MelissathePooh]

I'm going to be optimistic, but I think its going to do pretty well.

5 day opening - $65 million
Overall Box Office - $175 million

Part of me thinks it may do better - or maybe it is just the hopeful side of me, but I think it will be pretty successful.

Melissa

[d-r]

Opening day was 13.5 million -

I think Thurs. will drop off some, who knows what will happen over the weekend?

[Golter]

13.5 is most impressive. That outdrew T3's wednesday, I think you will see only a slight dip today and be in line for a 50-60 million dollar weekend. T3 did 44 mil and did not have the reviews that PotC is getting.

[d-r]

Yeah, I was thinking about that - T3 was rated R, though, but then again, it was TERMINATOR 3. So it is hard to gauge. Plus that was a Wed. before a holiday, but how much difference did it make for T3? Friday night being 4th of July surely slowed T3 down. T3 enjoyed some pretty good reviews. This is in the range of Mission Impossible 2, or Men in Black for opening day. The pg-13 rating will help potc.

But, in a way, I'm afraid my 40 million 3 day could be too high - 35 seems safer, but it is going to be interesting to me to see what happens, I am cautiously optimistic.

[RyMickey]

Pirates' 13.5 million is the second best non-holiday, non-sequel Wednesday opening ever (behind Lord of the Rings:The Fellowship of the Ring -- for all Wednesday openings, Pirates places 8th). Granted, the optimist in me may just be coming out, but I'd say this is off to an impressive start. From the looks of things on BoxOfficeMojo, Wednesday openings for non-sequel movies generally account for about 5-7% of the movie's final gross. So, could we be looking at a $200+ million movie here?

RyMickey

[d-r]

RyMickey-

You may be right.

What has me cautious is I just don't know how to guage the disney park fans. Yes, POTC is not a sequal, but it is a franchise, in that it has existing fans of the attraction - it is a known name. So I'm not sure how front loaded it is. Is it like Matrix where all the fan boys run out and see it first thing? Or is it going to draw in across a lot of demographics - families, boys for adventure, girls for bloom - and have some legs? It has good reviews and wom. That Wed. opening seems really big to me when I think that everyone was working, but it seems small to me if all the Disney fans ran out and saw it on the first day. I just don't know what to make of it yet, I'm not sure which way it goes.

[crusader]

I'm not sure how to guage this one either but my initial feeling was that it would be around 83 mil for the opening. I think people were just ready to go see a decent film and that may be a tremendous boost to this picture. Daannzzz is on to something. It will stick around and should do very well.

[wdwguide]

$10,486,019 for Thursday

[PatriciaH]

I'll say $175

[wdwguide]

Weekend estimates are in: $46,436,000, for a total of $70,431,000.

Nemo again dropped by only 26% and is up to $290,800,000 total.

[plutospup]

Just saw POTC with DD5. We both loved it!! Johnny Depp is hilarious! Good action flick, with a love story to boot! Yo Ho, Yo Ho... Disney may have another hit.

[Demosthenes]

DW and I saw it this weekend...twice. We loved it. I'm not the type to see a movie twice in the theaters, but this one was so much fun, we couldn't wait to go back. All of the showings for Saturday sold out and people were buying tickets for Sunday on Saturday night. I never expected this kind of a turn out for this film.

[FriendsOfEeyore]

Created a list of all the guesses. See first post.

[Golter]

I finally saw Pirates last night. I thoroughly enjoyed it. I'm afraid my guess of 165 Million by the end of 4th week will not hold up. It will have no problem passing 200 million.

I'd say the Pirate has legs and predict final domestic draw at $250 Mil.

[KNWVIKING]

Anyone happen to see which movie is back at the top of the charts for Tuesday ???

[Golter]

Pirates...5+ million

[AdventurerKat]

Hmmm...people won't see it twice? I sure did. I never go to movies twice...ever (Disney or not by the way!)

If the domestic gross of this movie is less than 200 mil while in the theaters, I will be surprised.

[Tekneek]

Pirates sure does seem to keep raking in the money, and doesn't look like a one-weekend splash like many other movies this year were.

[KNWVIKING]

Well, Sundays estimated 176 mil SAILS past my 175. Who's up next ?

[FriendsOfEeyore]

Originally posted by FriendsOfEeyore

daannzzz $208
RyMickey $200+
MelissathePooh $175
PatriciaH $175
KNWViking $175 (by Labor Day)
d-r $172
Golter $165
FriendsofEeyore $145
Planogirl $140
dc7800 $130
hopemax $119
Another Voice $ 15 (Close, but no cigar... Thanks for the phone in vote).




Well now, The Movie That Has No Legs is about $176M after only 19 days. One week to go for the above Estimates. Can PoTC take in another $32M in the next 7 days? If so, the unthinkable will have happened... PoTC would have even exceeded daannzzz wild guess!!!!

Please remember, no matter how successful this movie becomes, it will not make money for Disney. Isn't that right AV?

[crusader]

Well the money will certainly help but ABC really needs a hit this fall. Who knows maybe that Kelly Ripa can bring it on!

[wdwguide]

*Sigh* The black hole that is ABC... Not a single show in the top 20 last week...
What's good, there are less black holes the company needs to worry about this year than there have been in the past.

[KNWVIKING]

shall we all try again ???

How about a nice round number like 300 ?

[Golter]

I think 300 million is a real possibility. All movies that have reached 200 million in 25 days or less have reached 300 million except for Matrix Reloaded and Chamber of Secrets. Comparing Pirates to Matrix Reloaded, the pirate has much better sea legs.

[FriendsOfEeyore]

My original question was by yesterday, August 4th, see below.

Originally posted by FriendsOfEeyore
Let's start a thread about our thoughts on POTC and $ we think that it will gross thru the 1st four weekends, August 4th (thought about Labor day, but that was so hard and so far out when we did it for Nemo).

That said, it is fair to say that daannzzz was by far the best guesser amongst us. Orig guess was 208M, some 4 weeks ago. Well the actual 4 week total was $209,531,292. Now that is a good guess. Only off by .7%.

[DisneyKidds]

I think 300 million is a real possibility. All movies that have reached 200 million in 25 days or less have reached 300 million except for Matrix Reloaded and Chamber of Secrets. Comparing Pirates to Matrix Reloaded, the pirate has much better sea legs.
BoxOfficeMojo is also showing movies with the all time best 4th weekends.........................and Pirates stands at #8. While the week by week numbers are less for PotC than for Nemo, it looks like PotC is tracking a lot like Nemo. In fact PotC's weekend #4 dropoff was less than Nemo's. Now, I think everyone agrees that Nemo had some fins, so PotC must have a bone fide sea leg. Looking at the company in the top ten for all time 4th weekends, the majority hit $300 mil, so PotC may make that.

I'll take $252 thru Labor Day, topping out around $275 for it's full run.

[daannzzz]

Gosh. That makes up for my perdiction that Finding Nemo would only make $136 million by Labor day!!!!:eek: