has anyone done calculations for DVC as a short-term holding?

[disneyberry]

well i've been doing some number crunching today based on some of the examples i've seen discussed in past threads about the cost of DVC (like this thread (http://disboards.com/showthread.php?threadid=160228) ...)
i'm still not sure if i've got a good enough understanding of the costs, i might need to do some more reading, and refreshing my memory on these types of calculations as it has been a while since i last studied finance.

anyway, there is a scenario that i need help with. i wonder if anyone has done similar calculations before?

basically, because i'm still in my mid-20s, there is a lot of uncertainty in my life. there are a lot of changes that can still occur as far as my life and career that could affect whether or not i want to keep a DVC timeshare long-term all the way until 2042.

so, is it possible that buying DVC can be a good idea even if you only plan to hold the timeshare for a short-term period?
what is the minimum # of years to hold DVC ownership for, before selling, in order to somewhat break even after the sale?

i feel like my calculations might just be jibberish nonsense *sigh*... somehow, i came up with the result that if i bought DVC this year, and held it at least until 2008, i could sell the DVC contract then and still have "broken even" (spent less on Dues + loss from Resale than i would've spent paying for a cash room every year until 2008)


this is assuming:
150 pt BCV purchase at $84/pt (150pts enough for two 5-night weekday studio trips a year = total 10 nights/yr)
4% inflation of Dues
3% inflation of DVC retail price
3% inflation of WDW Hotel prices
$160/night current discount room at WL or AKL (where i would stay if not at DVC)
Resale would be 65% of 2008 Retail price
Resale broker would charge 12% commission

for those of you finance people out there, can you please help point me in the right direction to do this calculation?

[Dean]

There are as many answers to this question as "Carter has little liver pills" to coin an old phrase. I'll try to start with some things to help you think about it obviously colored by my personal feelings. As for buying now and selling later, this may not be a good time to do so. 2 years ago you would have been in a great situation buying resale, now the returns are likely far less. It also depends on how ofter you would go to WDW, when you would go (especially weekends), whether you have a family and how uncertain your future is.

If you can buy now, expect to use DVC most years and feel you will have no problems at least 5-7 years you should be OK on 150-200 points. You would want to pay cash up front rather than financing. If you can't, I'd recommend you just rent or look for cash discounts when you want to go. Same would apply to going for mostly long weekends. Good luck.

[disneyberry]

Originally posted by Dean
As for buying now and selling later, this may not be a good time to do so. 2 years ago you would have been in a great situation buying resale, now the returns are likely far less.
*big sigh* tell me about it... reviewing my WDW vacation habits since 2000, i really really wish i had thought to look into DVC back then. should've... could've... didn't. oh well, too late. :(
Originally posted by Dean
It also depends on how often you would go to WDW, when you would go (especially weekends), whether you have a family and how uncertain your future is.
well, not much is certain with this economy and the threat of war.
my bf and i (a DINK household with no immediate marriage/family plans) were lucky and caught the end of the IT boom and managed to save up quite of a lot of $ over a very short period of time... enough that we are not at all worried about our finances for the next two years and i am even here researching the possibility of buying a small 150pt DVC contract, despite both of us not having stable jobs... only occasional contract work.
however, i am probably not staying in the IT field, my bf is also considering changing fields, and the NYC general economy is nowhere near recovery... so the two of us will probably never make the kind of money we used to make again.
i guess to sum it up, things are very uncertain.

we only know that, no matter how difficult things could potentially get, we don't want to give up our annual vacations. we'll move to a smaller place, sell our unnecessary material possessions, etc. heh. ideally, we would still go to WDW 2x a year, but we might cut down to 1x a year now.

the one problem that i worry about is how you mention the long weekends being bad thing. i guess i should redo the calculations assuming weekend usage trips like Sat - Thu trips, or even a "wasteful" 5night trip that includes Fri + Sat... hm...

another problem is 150pts might be a little too many points for us (heh, can you believe it?)

well, back to crunching numbers.
thanks for the comments.

[Dean]

Originally posted by disneyberry
the one problem that i worry about is how you mention the long weekends being bad thing. i guess i should redo the calculations assuming weekend usage trips like Sat - Thu trips, or even a "wasteful" 5night trip that includes Fri + Sat... hm...

another problem is 150pts might be a little too many points for us (heh, can you believe it?)

The numbers don't work out well for doing mostly long weekends. You'd be better off paying cash to stay at DVC or other WDW resorts.