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pgowder
04-17-2012, 07:59 AM
We've looked into DVC a couple of times. But the thing that stops us each time is the yearly regime fee.

We were looking at AKL for about 200 points. That had a yearly fee of about $1100.

For that amount alone we can get a descent room for 7 days.

To me that just doesn't seem to be a good value.

What am I missing?

vicki_c
04-17-2012, 08:08 AM
You cannot get a room at AKL for 7 days for $1100 at any time of the year. The lowest price at AKL is $265 during value season (rack rate without a discount, if you have a 40% discount then I guess you could hit that $1100 - not very likely).

If you are content with staying @ values or moderates where that statement might be true, then DVC is most likely not a good choice for you.

DVC works for those who like staying deluxe, plan on going to WDW every year or every other year, want a bigger room than what they could afford (or want to pay) through Disney.

Over the life of the contract, you would save money against booking a comparable room with Disney.

chalee94
04-17-2012, 08:10 AM
We've looked into DVC a couple of times. But the thing that stops us each time is the yearly regime fee.

We were looking at AKL for about 200 points. That had a yearly fee of about $1100.

For that amount alone we can get a descent room for 7 days.

To me that just doesn't seem to be a good value.

What am I missing?

you can get a hotel room equivalent for 7 nights in a DVC for only 80 to 120 pts. for 200 pts, you'd have a 1BR unit: separate sleeping areas, full kitchen, washer/dryer and 2 bathrooms at kidani. either way, you'd be at a deluxe resort with giraffes on the grounds.

if you're happy as a "the room is just for sleeping" park commando, then DVC has nothing for you (or if it does, then just look at the studios to keep the comparisons valid.) if you are happy at a value or moderate, DVC probably isn't for you. don't get hung up on feeling like you need to "be a member."

also, the "annual dues" or "maintenance fees" are what pay for the rooms to be cleaned, the furniture to be replaced and the grounds to be maintained (including animal care at AKV). that seems pretty essential to me.

but DVC is not for everyone and the yearly fees do need to be taken into account.

pgowder
04-17-2012, 08:15 AM
You cannot get a room at AKL for 7 days for $1100 at any time of the year. The lowest price at AKL is $265 during value season (rack rate without a discount, if you have a 40% discount then I guess you could hit that $1100 - not very likely).

If you are content with staying @ values or moderates where that statement might be true, then DVC is most likely not a good choice for you.

DVC works for those who like staying deluxe, plan on going to WDW every year or every other year, want a bigger room than what they could afford (or want to pay) through Disney.

Over the life of the contract, you would save money against booking a comparable room with Disney.

We enjoy Deluxe rooms, but don't stay there every time.

I know you can't stay at AKL for that, but you could stay at POFQ.

jarestel
04-17-2012, 08:22 AM
To me that just doesn't seem to be a good value.

What am I missing?

You're right, DVC is definitely not the cheapest WDW vacation option. I think, as you are doing, each potential DVC member needs to evaluate DVC based on individual vacationing habits to see whether it makes sense or not. I agree with the previous posters, DVC will not necessarily be the best choice for everyone.

Good luck!

fmer55
04-17-2012, 08:40 AM
DVC is a LUXURY resorts destination. The less you value your accomadations the less DVC is for you. Now i know to each there own, but i still cannot figure how leaving your own spacious home and staying in a single hotel room for a week is a vaction:stir:

Lucia_27
04-17-2012, 09:05 AM
DVC is a LUXURY resorts destination. The less you value your accomadations the less DVC is for you. Now i know to each there own, but i still cannot figure how leaving your own spacious home and staying in a single hotel room for a week is a vaction:stir:

I totally agree! We've stayed at an OKW 1BR (cash) for 9 day trips (twice) and at the Poly for a 6 day trip. I love my DH and DD, but after 6 days in a hotel room, sleeping with my 6 y/o's feet in my back, I was more than ready to buy into DVC so we can have the extra space!!!

We did the math and pondered for 2 years before making an offer on an OKW contract. We love OKW and know we will be going to WDW at least once a year for many years (we are in FL so that helps!). When I could get 40% of rack rate, it wasn't too bad to pay cash, but this year with no PINs or discounts for when we wanted to travel, it made perfect financial sense for us. Can't wait to book our first trip as DVC members!

Lynne M
04-17-2012, 09:24 AM
DVC isn't about getting a decent place to stay, or a cheap place to stay; it's all about the villa accommodations. If the villas are something your family wants on a regular basis, then DVC is probably the most cost effective way to get them.

chalee94
04-17-2012, 09:37 AM
I know you can't stay at AKL for that, but you could stay at POFQ.

a POFQ room is more like a studio, though, even discounting the deluxe aspects of staying at AKV and the giraffes. you can get a standard view 1BR in dream season for 200 pts for 7 nights or a standard view studio for 95 pts for 7 nights.

annual dues on 95 pts would be a little over $500 for the year. how many nights at POFQ will $500 get you?

there are other things to consider. you get 2 real beds at a mod (2 queens at some, 2 doubles at others) but 1 queen + 1 sofabed in most studios. you would also need to factor in the upfront cost of buying into DVC.

but if you are comparing apples-to-apples, a studio is a more realistic comparison on the financial side. DVC still may not be worth it to you, however, depending on how you value things like sofabeds (and giraffes. :) )

juncker
04-17-2012, 11:29 AM
Also as DVC owners, we don't pay Florida Hotel tax. I don't know the actual rate, but it will add up on a 4-digit hotel bill.

Go to the Disney website and price out a cash stay at a DVC property for a week. For $1,100 it would be a deal. I realize that there are other offers (free dining plans, etc...), or ways to rent points that brings this down, but it ain't cheap to get a good place onsite at WDW.

As other said, if penny pinching is your primary goal, then DVC may not be for you. It is cheaper to stay in an old refrigerator box than at Bay Lake Towers, but it isn't as nice (it certainly would still be a memory that would hang with you though).

Good luck with whatever you decide.

Deb & Bill
04-17-2012, 12:28 PM
We've looked into DVC a couple of times. But the thing that stops us each time is the yearly regime fee.

We were looking at AKL for about 200 points. That had a yearly fee of about $1100.

For that amount alone we can get a descent room for 7 days.

To me that just doesn't seem to be a good value.

What am I missing?

I think you are missing the fact that you may not be the ideal candidate to buy DVC. If you like to get deals and pay less that way, you don't get deals with DVC. You prepay your vacation through the purchase of a real estate interest (points) and then pay annual fees.

If you are satisfied with any hotel room, including value and moderates, then the "deluxe" aspects of DVC may not be important to you. I like my in room washer and dryer. I like my living room. I like my king sized bed. I like my standalone shower separate from the tub. I like my full sized refrigerator and kitchen.

DougEMG
04-17-2012, 01:06 PM
I like playing with numbers and spreadsheets and one day when I was bored I went through each of the DVC resorts comparing the point cost of a studio against the cash cost of the equivalent room for the times of year I normally go. I also compared these numbers to a moderate hotel room at POR since I use to only stay at moderates. Note that the cash cost is paying full rack rate and one should really assume that you would be able to get at least some sort of discount.

For AKV though the numbers worked out to this:

Dec 09-23 (14 nights)
AKV studio standard view 170 points, renting at $10/point = $1700, My costs ($7/point) = $1,190, cash rate $6,503, 30% discount on cash rate = $4,552.

AKV studio savannah view 220 points, renting at $10/point = $2,200, My costs ($7/point) = $1,540, cash rate $7,740, 30% discount on cash rate = $5,418.

POR room cash rate $2,8643, 30% discount on cash rate = $2,005.
Pop Century cash rate $1,854, 30% discount on cash rate = $1,298.


Aug 12 - Aug 26(14 nights) - cash rates are based on current summer discounts of 20-25%

AKV studio standard view 202 points, renting at $10/point = $2,020, My costs ($7/point) = $1,414, cash rate $5,655

AKV studio savannah view 254 points, renting at $10/point = $2,540, My costs ($7/point) = $1,778, cash rate $6,933

POR room cash rate $2,769.
Pop Century cash rate $1,590.


Cash rates were based on going to the Disney site and booking a reservations for those dates. My costs is equal to my annual MF per point + my buyin cost per point (your costs could be significantly higher buying direct)

So there is no doubt in my mind that there is a huge saving with DVC when comparing the equalivalent room. Compared to a moderate room, there is still a savings. And there is no real savings when compared to a value room.

Run some numbers for yourself comparing the room you are getting for $1,100 against what you would be getting with DVC. If they don't work out for you, don't buy DVC.

I didn't buy DVC myself till the numbers made sense for me and for me that meant buying resale only.

KAT4DISNEY
04-17-2012, 01:28 PM
It sounds like you're looking at too many points if you're looking for accommodations similar to POFQ for one week. I might compare that to OKW studio b/c it's similar surroundings and has 2 queen beds. One week there in the cheapest season is 76 points. MF's on OKW 76 points is $395.20. Or if you owned SSR points but stayed at OKW during the cheapest season it would be $359.50. In a Dream Season (middle of the charts) it would be 99 points so $515 or $468 with SSR points used at OKW. And in the most expensive season it's 152 points or $790/$718.

In general if you like value accommodations then DVC is not going to save. If you like moderate you can get accommodations with DVC at a deluxe resort for a similar cost. If you like deluxe you can save money until you start realizing you like the 1 and 2 BR villas then you might still be paying the same as if you paid cash at a deluxe but you can get larger accommodations.

pgowder
04-17-2012, 02:59 PM
a POFQ room is more like a studio, though, even discounting the deluxe aspects of staying at AKV and the giraffes. you can get a standard view 1BR in dream season for 200 pts for 7 nights or a standard view studio for 95 pts for 7 nights.

annual dues on 95 pts would be a little over $500 for the year. how many nights at POFQ will $500 get you?

there are other things to consider. you get 2 real beds at a mod (2 queens at some, 2 doubles at others) but 1 queen + 1 sofabed in most studios. you would also need to factor in the upfront cost of buying into DVC.

but if you are comparing apples-to-apples, a studio is a more realistic comparison on the financial side. DVC still may not be worth it to you, however, depending on how you value things like sofabeds (and giraffes. :) )

That makes alot of sense! thanks!

pgowder
04-17-2012, 03:01 PM
I like playing with numbers and spreadsheets and one day when I was bored I went through each of the DVC resorts comparing the point cost of a studio against the cash cost of the equivalent room for the times of year I normally go. I also compared these numbers to a moderate hotel room at POR since I use to only stay at moderates. Note that the cash cost is paying full rack rate and one should really assume that you would be able to get at least some sort of discount.

For AKV though the numbers worked out to this:

Dec 09-23 (14 nights)
AKV studio standard view 170 points, renting at $10/point = $1700, My costs ($7/point) = $1,190, cash rate $6,503, 30% discount on cash rate = $4,552.

AKV studio savannah view 220 points, renting at $10/point = $2,200, My costs ($7/point) = $1,540, cash rate $7,740, 30% discount on cash rate = $5,418.

POR room cash rate $2,8643, 30% discount on cash rate = $2,005.
Pop Century cash rate $1,854, 30% discount on cash rate = $1,298.


Aug 12 - Aug 26(14 nights) - cash rates are based on current summer discounts of 20-25%

AKV studio standard view 202 points, renting at $10/point = $2,020, My costs ($7/point) = $1,414, cash rate $5,655

AKV studio savannah view 254 points, renting at $10/point = $2,540, My costs ($7/point) = $1,778, cash rate $6,933

POR room cash rate $2,769.
Pop Century cash rate $1,590.


Cash rates were based on going to the Disney site and booking a reservations for those dates. My costs is equal to my annual MF per point + my buyin cost per point (your costs could be significantly higher buying direct)

So there is no doubt in my mind that there is a huge saving with DVC when comparing the equalivalent room. Compared to a moderate room, there is still a savings. And there is no real savings when compared to a value room.

Run some numbers for yourself comparing the room you are getting for $1,100 against what you would be getting with DVC. If they don't work out for you, don't buy DVC.

I didn't buy DVC myself till the numbers made sense for me and for me that meant buying resale only.

Does your math include total cost of ownership--the upfront costs and the yearly fees?

pgowder
04-17-2012, 03:02 PM
It sounds like you're looking at too many points if you're looking for accommodations similar to POFQ for one week. I might compare that to OKW studio b/c it's similar surroundings and has 2 queen beds. One week there in the cheapest season is 76 points. MF's on OKW 76 points is $395.20. Or if you owned SSR points but stayed at OKW during the cheapest season it would be $359.50. In a Dream Season (middle of the charts) it would be 99 points so $515 or $468 with SSR points used at OKW. And in the most expensive season it's 152 points or $790/$718.

In general if you like value accommodations then DVC is not going to save. If you like moderate you can get accommodations with DVC at a deluxe resort for a similar cost. If you like deluxe you can save money until you start realizing you like the 1 and 2 BR villas then you might still be paying the same as if you paid cash at a deluxe but you can get larger accommodations.

Thanks!

disneynutz
04-17-2012, 03:33 PM
DVC works for some and not for others. Each prospective buyer needs to work the numbers, visit the resorts, learn about the rules, policies, and restrictions, then decide if the money is worth it for the product received. Each person/family is different.

:earsboy: Bill

chalee94
04-17-2012, 04:02 PM
Does your math include total cost of ownership--the upfront costs and the yearly fees?

he's including $5-ish per pt for annual dues + $2-ish per pt to account for upfront costs spread over 40-ish years = $7 per pt.

sweetdana
04-17-2012, 04:16 PM
Some resorts are less resale too. IE to compare POR/FQ use SSR or OKW resale, cost is closer to 6$- 6.50$ a point, needing per night, close to same as AK.
Agree with all pp, 200 point is a lot, and not = to 7 days at a moderate.

Dean
04-17-2012, 05:19 PM
Does your math include total cost of ownership--the upfront costs and the yearly fees?It sounds like the calculations are omitting the time value of the up front money (or interest if financed).

In general terms and making reasonable assumptions, a DVC studio should be around the same cost as a moderate and more than a value. However there is a large difference depending on your home resort and buy in cost. Since you're moving up anyway, comparing to OKW or SSR would be a better comparison and if you go resale, you should be able to get in under $50 a point and if you're diligent, likely around $40 a point or maybe less. IF you can pay cash and plan to visit WDW and/or DVC resorts enough to use up an appropriate sized contract, the added value should be worth it even if the numbers aren't exact.

However, let me throw in another type of option. For pennies on the dollar and yearly fees around 70% of DVC, one should be able to get a 2 BR off property at a resort at least as nice as the DVC resorts. You'd pick up a better larger room and give up the on property location. Plus you'd pick up a lot more and better non DVC options for other locations. Here are a few examples. Bluegreen 20000 points for essentially free plus closing, likely under $500 total and yearly fees around $1200 would get you a 2 BR locally every year for 7-8 days. DVC dues for a 2 BR for a week would be in the range of $1500 a year. Wyndham could be had for around $1000-1500 at a lower fee resort and give you a 2 BR every year at Bonnet Creek, right by Caribbean Beach and yearly fees in the same $1200 range or just over. Both would give you free RCI with a lot less restrictions than DVC plus both give you a lot of internal exchange options directly for little or no fee. The other option is Marriott which is more of a full week (but not fixed) option. Marriott would be a little more up front and yearly but give you even better and higher end options and still cheaper yearly than DVC for a comparable situation.

k3chantal
04-17-2012, 05:46 PM
I think with DVC you also have to 'look into the future'. These resorts are only going to cost more for each night for cash stays as the years go by; meanwhile our points will remain around the same for each night. The 'value' gets better over the course of time.

My husband and I were only willing to purchase a contract if we could purchase it outright; so that the only cost associated with it would be the yearly dues. So for $1500.00 dollars a year, we get some pretty fantastic experiences. In six weeks we are off to AKL in a two bedroom savanna view room, no way would that cost just fifteen hundred. And even if I factored in the original payment, I have already gone on a 7 night Wonder cruise, a stay at the Grand Californian, two DW full week vacations and a seven day trip to Hawaii. So I think I am getting good value and deluxe accommodations I would never be willing to pay cash for. One past stay at AKL and this upcoming stay, we have had friends come with us. So the gift we are giving to them and the enjoyment we receive going with others ; only brings more value to our trips.

theSurlyMermaid
04-17-2012, 06:09 PM
When we were considering DVC we hashed out what were the likely trips we would be taking as a family of three which turned into four. However, we have taken friends and family on every trip we've taken since becoming DVC members. We borrowed ahead and got a grand villa for our last vacation and it was an awesome experience I would never have considered if not for DVC. The rack rate for that grand villa would have totaled us about ten grand for the time we were there.....that was half our principle right there (which we paid in full).

DVC just makes gatherings like this possible.

pgowder
04-17-2012, 08:01 PM
I like playing with numbers and spreadsheets and one day when I was bored I went through each of the DVC resorts comparing the point cost of a studio against the cash cost of the equivalent room for the times of year I normally go. I also compared these numbers to a moderate hotel room at POR since I use to only stay at moderates. Note that the cash cost is paying full rack rate and one should really assume that you would be able to get at least some sort of discount.

For AKV though the numbers worked out to this:

Dec 09-23 (14 nights)
AKV studio standard view 170 points, renting at $10/point = $1700, My costs ($7/point) = $1,190, cash rate $6,503, 30% discount on cash rate = $4,552.

AKV studio savannah view 220 points, renting at $10/point = $2,200, My costs ($7/point) = $1,540, cash rate $7,740, 30% discount on cash rate = $5,418.

POR room cash rate $2,8643, 30% discount on cash rate = $2,005.
Pop Century cash rate $1,854, 30% discount on cash rate = $1,298.


Aug 12 - Aug 26(14 nights) - cash rates are based on current summer discounts of 20-25%

AKV studio standard view 202 points, renting at $10/point = $2,020, My costs ($7/point) = $1,414, cash rate $5,655

AKV studio savannah view 254 points, renting at $10/point = $2,540, My costs ($7/point) = $1,778, cash rate $6,933

POR room cash rate $2,769.
Pop Century cash rate $1,590.


Cash rates were based on going to the Disney site and booking a reservations for those dates. My costs is equal to my annual MF per point + my buyin cost per point (your costs could be significantly higher buying direct)

So there is no doubt in my mind that there is a huge saving with DVC when comparing the equalivalent room. Compared to a moderate room, there is still a savings. And there is no real savings when compared to a value room.

Run some numbers for yourself comparing the room you are getting for $1,100 against what you would be getting with DVC. If they don't work out for you, don't buy DVC.

I didn't buy DVC myself till the numbers made sense for me and for me that meant buying resale only.

Where can I find info on the studio rooms?

They didn't talk about this in our sale meeting.

What is the upfront cost?

pgowder
04-17-2012, 08:02 PM
When you buy points on resale, can you finance those points?

WsPrincess
04-17-2012, 08:09 PM
When you buy points on resale, can you finance those points?

The Timeshare Store offers financing but it was really high (I think it was at least 12% but if I remember from my DVC stuff, it wasn't a lot less to finance through Disney). So yes, but it is costly to finance it. I know we could take out a personal loan for a lower % rate.

Dean
04-17-2012, 08:10 PM
I think with DVC you also have to 'look into the future'. These resorts are only going to cost more for each night for cash stays as the years go by; meanwhile our points will remain around the same for each night. The 'value' gets better over the course of time.

My husband and I were only willing to purchase a contract if we could purchase it outright; so that the only cost associated with it would be the yearly dues. So for $1500.00 dollars a year, we get some pretty fantastic experiences. In six weeks we are off to AKL in a two bedroom savanna view room, no way would that cost just fifteen hundred. And even if I factored in the original payment, I have already gone on a 7 night Wonder cruise, a stay at the Grand Californian, two DW full week vacations and a seven day trip to Hawaii. So I think I am getting good value and deluxe accommodations I would never be willing to pay cash for. One past stay at AKL and this upcoming stay, we have had friends come with us. So the gift we are giving to them and the enjoyment we receive going with others ; only brings more value to our trips.I would agree you need to make long term assumptions but I'm not personally willing to buy the one that says room prices will rise dramatically faster than maint fees and other costs related to owning DVC. They may but I think the % increase is almost certainly going to be higher for dues than for cash rooms with usual discounts. Actually my assumption is the other way, that there will come a time when owning costs more than it's worth, I'm just hoping it's in the last 1-2 years and not with 20 years to go.

fmer55
04-17-2012, 08:11 PM
When you buy points on resale, can you finance those points?

bank.....have you seen heloc rates lately? practically free

Dean
04-17-2012, 08:14 PM
When you buy points on resale, can you finance those points?
All timeshare financing is high. Timesharelending.net looks like they've increased their prices recently. It's now 12.9% and 13.9% depending with 20% o 10% down respectively and a min of $5K I believe. I haven't seen Disney's current rate but it's likely in the same ball park. Financing a luxury purchase is generally a very bad idea.

vicki_c
04-17-2012, 09:05 PM
Where can I find info on the studio rooms?

They didn't talk about this in our sale meeting.

What is the upfront cost?

I think you might be misunderstanding. A DVC studio requires less points than a larger room. Depending on what conversation you had with your guide, and what you told them about your plans, size of your family, etc., it is possible they only addressed buying a larger number of points than the minimum (I do not know what the minimum is now, when we purchased it was 160 for a new member) with the thought that you needed a 1 BR or 2 BR every year. Or maybe there is/was a special offer going for the purchase of a larger number of points - sometimes they do that.

You should look at the points charts linked at the top of the page here and depending on your family size, see how many points it would take for you to stay in a studio at your desired resort for various times of the year. That would give you an idea of the size of contract you might need. Studio occupancy is only 4 + infant under the age of 3.

The upfront cost for any purchase is simply the price per point x the # of points you are buying, but you may not need as many points as what you were originally thinking. Annual dues are also based on the # of points you have.

ToddyLu
04-17-2012, 09:27 PM
:) DH and I committed the cardinal DVC sin and financed our DVC purchase. It was one of our better decisions--to us....

DVC changes your trip to Disney like a Corvette changes your drive to work.

Some things are worth the money to some people. Would I buy a boat (we live on the water) or Rolex? No way....but Disney....ummm..yes.

ToddyLu
04-17-2012, 09:29 PM
:) You can also see pricing on DVCNews.com. It is a very good site with FAQs, photos, ammenities of resorts, etc.

chalee94
04-17-2012, 11:22 PM
Where can I find info on the studio rooms?

here is info about OKW - complete with links to pictures. the other DVC resorts are also linked on the left side.

http://allears.net/acc/faq_okw.htm

They didn't talk about this in our sale meeting.

DVC tries not to sell smaller contracts directly. if you only need 100 pts, you typically have to look at resales.

What is the upfront cost?

varies by resort and whether the contract is loaded (has banked pts) or stripped (only has pts coming in 2013 or so).

pgowder
04-18-2012, 09:34 AM
bank.....have you seen heloc rates lately? practically free

heloc?

chalee94
04-18-2012, 10:42 AM
heloc?

through the magic of a home equity line, you can put your home at risk in order to finance your timeshare.

not sure that's a wise move, but some people apparently do it...

fmer55
04-18-2012, 10:49 AM
through the magic of a home equity line, you can put your home at risk in order to finance your timeshare.

not sure that's a wise move, but some people apparently do it...

A bit extreme don't you think? if 10g is going to risk your house you ABSOLUTELY , IN NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM should even consider buying DVC

DougEMG
04-18-2012, 12:57 PM
Does your math include total cost of ownership--the upfront costs and the yearly fees?

Yes it does. The "My Costs" figure is based on the total purchase price/total number of points over the life of the contract plus the annual maintenance costs.

My SSR contract has a purchase price cost of $0.99/point and the MF are $4.72/point right now. That gives me a cost of $5.71/point for this year. I've got some other contracts that cost more and have higher MF so used $7 as an average.

chalee94
04-18-2012, 12:59 PM
A bit extreme don't you think? if 10g is going to risk your house you ABSOLUTELY , IN NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM should even consider buying DVC

some would say if you have to go into debt for a luxury item like a timeshare, you shouldn't buy it until you can afford it.

most who use an equity line for silly purchases don't lose their homes, but a few have job/health/divorce surprises that wind up biting them in the end.

opinions vary. suit yourself.

DougEMG
04-18-2012, 01:06 PM
It sounds like the calculations are omitting the time value of the up front money (or interest if financed).

Correct, I am not including the time value of the up front money.

The year I bought DVC my investments lost 12%, banks were paying practically nothing on savings so placing my money in DVC worked out better than if I had done either of those.

I have run numbers looking at taking that money that went into DVC, investing/saving it and then using that to pay for vacations and DVC still worked out to be a better deal in the long run.

DougEMG
04-18-2012, 01:10 PM
However, let me throw in another type of option. For pennies on the dollar and yearly fees around 70% of DVC, one should be able to get a 2 BR off property at a resort at least as nice as the DVC resorts. You'd pick up a better larger room and give up the on property location. Plus you'd pick up a lot more and better non DVC options for other locations. Here are a few examples. Bluegreen 20000 points for essentially free plus closing, likely under $500 total and yearly fees around $1200 would get you a 2 BR locally every year for 7-8 days. DVC dues for a 2 BR for a week would be in the range of $1500 a year. Wyndham could be had for around $1000-1500 at a lower fee resort and give you a 2 BR every year at Bonnet Creek, right by Caribbean Beach and yearly fees in the same $1200 range or just over. Both would give you free RCI with a lot less restrictions than DVC plus both give you a lot of internal exchange options directly for little or no fee. The other option is Marriott which is more of a full week (but not fixed) option. Marriott would be a little more up front and yearly but give you even better and higher end options and still cheaper yearly than DVC for a comparable situation.

There are definitely ways to get nicer accomodation at a cheaper price than at DVC and this is a good example.

I think though most people that buy DVC are buying because they have already made the decision that they want to stay on-site. Their next question is what is the most affordable way to stay on-site for the type of accomodations they want.

DougEMG
04-18-2012, 01:22 PM
I would agree you need to make long term assumptions but I'm not personally willing to buy the one that says room prices will rise dramatically faster than maint fees and other costs related to owning DVC. They may but I think the % increase is almost certainly going to be higher for dues than for cash rooms with usual discounts. Actually my assumption is the other way, that there will come a time when owning costs more than it's worth, I'm just hoping it's in the last 1-2 years and not with 20 years to go.

Given that a lot of the resorts are attached to hotels, shouldn't the increase in costs be similar for both the resort and the hotel? I've actually never bothered to check, but using BWV as an example it would be interesting to see how much MF have went up annually compared to the annual increases for the hotel room.

Dean
04-18-2012, 05:22 PM
A bit extreme don't you think? if 10g is going to risk your house you ABSOLUTELY , IN NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM should even consider buying DVCI wouldn't think it extreme at all and people buy things all the time they shouldn't, including DVC. We see it routinely here on DIS including posts within the last week or two. Personally I'm of the opinion if you can't get it together enough to save up for such a purchase you probably shouldn't vacation anyway. It happens every day that people lose their home over such purchases, especially lately.

Correct, I am not including the time value of the up front money.

The year I bought DVC my investments lost 12%, banks were paying practically nothing on savings so placing my money in DVC worked out better than if I had done either of those.

I have run numbers looking at taking that money that went into DVC, investing/saving it and then using that to pay for vacations and DVC still worked out to be a better deal in the long run.But if you look over a 5-10 year period, the numbers are much different. Trying to justify DVC over a single short period is no different than day trading.

There are definitely ways to get nicer accomodation at a cheaper price than at DVC and this is a good example.

I think though most people that buy DVC are buying because they have already made the decision that they want to stay on-site. Their next question is what is the most affordable way to stay on-site for the type of accomodations they want.
I'm not willing to concede that most people who buy DVC know and look at all the options and make an informed decision, the truth is that most don't. And many of those would likely consider the very nice off property options with the built in savings if they did truly know all the options. In addition many do buy DVC even if they have some idea of the other options related to the emotional component and the rational decision would still be the other way. How often to we see people post here that they wouldn't even consider a timeshare but bought DVC, there was a thread in the last week on that very subject.

Given that a lot of the resorts are attached to hotels, shouldn't the increase in costs be similar for both the resort and the hotel? I've actually never bothered to check, but using BWV as an example it would be interesting to see how much MF have went up annually compared to the annual increases for the hotel room.Unfortunately past performance does not guarantee future results. My feeling and statements are that maint fees will increase at a higher rate than both cash DVC options and Disney hotels when you look at effective prices taking discounts into account. Whether the difference is enough to remove the value of owning DVC in later years (which is different than buying late in the course), remains to be seen. Rental rates certainly haven't increased as much as maint fees have.

DougEMG
04-19-2012, 12:47 PM
But if you look over a 5-10 year period, the numbers are much different. Trying to justify DVC over a single short period is no different than day trading.


I've run numbers, have posted some number and they look good to me, but perhaps I'm missing something. Why don't you provide some numbers with real examples to show how things don't work out over the 5-10 year period. I'll provide similar numbers and we can compare and see if we are both talking the same thing or not.

For example, if I compare a 1 week stay at a DVC with investing the money instead and staying 1 week in a moderate and using the following numbers.

DVC: 100 points OKW, purchase price $4,500 ($45/point), MF $5.2 with annual increases of MF of 4.5%
Hotel: $987/week ($180/night + taxes - 30% discount) with investing $4,500, with annual hotel price increase of 3% and an investment return of 4%, and I'll ignore the tax implications on the 4% return.

After 10 years, the $4,500 that you have invested to pay for your hotel stays is eliminated. While the DVC OKW contract still has 19 years left on it. So in year 11, your hotel room is costing you $1,462 for the week, while your MF are only $808.

For myself I always figure out where that break even point is compared to what I would have done without DVC. If the breakeven point is within 6-8 years then I'm happy buying the contract (I only buy resale).

DougEMG
04-19-2012, 12:56 PM
Unfortunately past performance does not guarantee future results. My feeling and statements are that maint fees will increase at a higher rate than both cash DVC options and Disney hotels when you look at effective prices taking discounts into account. Whether the difference is enough to remove the value of owning DVC in later years (which is different than buying late in the course), remains to be seen. Rental rates certainly haven't increased as much as maint fees have.

While past performance doesn't guarantee future performance in terms of investing, I feel fairly confident that comparing past increases in room rates with past increase in MF is a very valid tool for estimating how future increases will compare.

Many of the costs that go into both DVC and the hotels are the same such as house keeping, transportation, grounds maintenance, etc. An increase in house keeping is going to affect both DVC and the hotels.

Dean
04-19-2012, 04:14 PM
I've run numbers, have posted some number and they look good to me, but perhaps I'm missing something. Why don't you provide some numbers with real examples to show how things don't work out over the 5-10 year period. I'll provide similar numbers and we can compare and see if we are both talking the same thing or not.

For example, if I compare a 1 week stay at a DVC with investing the money instead and staying 1 week in a moderate and using the following numbers.

DVC: 100 points OKW, purchase price $4,500 ($45/point), MF $5.2 with annual increases of MF of 4.5%
Hotel: $987/week ($180/night + taxes - 30% discount) with investing $4,500, with annual hotel price increase of 3% and an investment return of 4%, and I'll ignore the tax implications on the 4% return.

After 10 years, the $4,500 that you have invested to pay for your hotel stays is eliminated. While the DVC OKW contract still has 19 years left on it. So in year 11, your hotel room is costing you $1,462 for the week, while your MF are only $808.

For myself I always figure out where that break even point is compared to what I would have done without DVC. If the breakeven point is within 6-8 years then I'm happy buying the contract (I only buy resale).I could do that but it's likely easier for you for me to post my criteria and you can plug it in to your way of calculating. I'd use more than 100 points because you're comparing to deluxe and SSR/OKW isn't a fair comparison, maybe 125 points for a week yearly (I'm assuming you compared to a full week) looking at BWV preferred, BCV and VWL as medium range options. I'd assume return of principle over 10 years, not the life of the contract. I'd assume 8% investment return after taxes but if you want to go lower, that's up to you though I think 4% after taxes is definitely far too low. In addition to adjusting by 30% below rack rate (which is reasonable) one at least needs to consider what you're giving up with DVC like daily maid service though this is variable from one to another. Even then it is my opinion that DVC will compare favorably to the deluxe options and pretty close to moderates but above values and significantly more than off site which many people actually prefer. I simply felt some of your comparisons and assumptions were flawed at least based on what you posted. IF I understood correctly you used a short period market loss as a justification, ignored the time value of money (at least initially) and the biggest error to me, assume that hotel rooms would increase at the same rate as maint fees. YMMV.

ELMC
04-19-2012, 08:06 PM
I appreciate the conversation and all the good points that are being made. But I have to wonder if we are over analyzing things here. I understand the value in looking at a DVC purchase vs. other lodging options. Direct or resale? Stay deluxe with a discount code or purchase DVC? Rent points or buy? Finance or pay cash? These are all good questions to be asked. But as soon as we bring cost of use of money and time value of money into the equation we are going beyond what is real and entering the theoretical.

Looking at investing the difference is nice, but there is no way to predict how our investments will perform over time. If (as is very likely in this economy) you decide to invest the difference and lose money in the first year only, you are now in a position where you need significant returns in order for this to be the better option. This is just as likely as your investments taking off and making that the better way to go. The bottom line is that nobody knows, so it is all just speculation.

Furthermore, as someone who spent years in the financial services industry, I can say from experience that the "rent and invest the difference" argument is a weak one. Why? Because I have rarely seen anyone actually invest the difference. Remember, this is money earmarked for a luxury purchase. Odds are that people are going to use it for just that. If it's not DVC it's a home theater system or a nicer car.

Finally, I have yet to see anyone include the intangible value associated with DVC. As a Marriott owner I can stay for much less off property, but it's not as convenient. There's value to staying onsite. Being able to log on at 8:00 am at the exact 11 month window and get the exact room you want without any of the hassles or renting...value there. Discounts on annual passes and other items...value there too.

So while the analysis is good, it may be too much of a good thing. It's important to realize that a lot of this analysis is dealing with the theoretical and is, in the end, just as likely to turn out completely different than any of us predicted.

Dean
04-19-2012, 08:53 PM
I appreciate the conversation and all the good points that are being made. But I have to wonder if we are over analyzing things here. I understand the value in looking at a DVC purchase vs. other lodging options. Direct or resale? Stay deluxe with a discount code or purchase DVC? Rent points or buy? Finance or pay cash? These are all good questions to be asked. But as soon as we bring cost of use of money and time value of money into the equation we are going beyond what is real and entering the theoretical.

Looking at investing the difference is nice, but there is no way to predict how our investments will perform over time. If (as is very likely in this economy) you decide to invest the difference and lose money in the first year only, you are now in a position where you need significant returns in order for this to be the better option. This is just as likely as your investments taking off and making that the better way to go. The bottom line is that nobody knows, so it is all just speculation.

Furthermore, as someone who spent years in the financial services industry, I can say from experience that the "rent and invest the difference" argument is a weak one. Why? Because I have rarely seen anyone actually invest the difference. Remember, this is money earmarked for a luxury purchase. Odds are that people are going to use it for just that. If it's not DVC it's a home theater system or a nicer car.

Finally, I have yet to see anyone include the intangible value associated with DVC. As a Marriott owner I can stay for much less off property, but it's not as convenient. There's value to staying onsite. Being able to log on at 8:00 am at the exact 11 month window and get the exact room you want without any of the hassles or renting...value there. Discounts on annual passes and other items...value there too.

So while the analysis is good, it may be too much of a good thing. It's important to realize that a lot of this analysis is dealing with the theoretical and is, in the end, just as likely to turn out completely different than any of us predicted.There's value to some staying on site but not to others, some actually prefer staying off site. We were just at Grande Vista this weekend and had one of our best stays in Orlando in several years. I was going to come back and post 2 additional issues. One is that no matter the dollar analysis, I doubt DVC saves many people any money because the psychology is that many get larger units rather than taking the savings, added value but wasted savings. The other is that while the current points breakdown is favorable to weekends, this has not always been the case and likely won't cont to be the case. Therefore those looking at heavy use for weekends are likely to find the numbers quite different in the future. As for saving the difference, assuming one has the money to buy DVC without financing (as should be the case), there is no ongoing savings required since you'd spend any future money either on yearly dues or on yearly vacations. So all you have to do is invest the up front amount for a longer term, say min 5 years, much simply than yearly savings.

For perks there are few people where they add up to enough to even consider. Maybe if you list multiple family members with different households and get multiple AP that you'd get anyway, that's about the only way to get any sizable value from perks. And that is tenuous at best with little expectation it'll be a long term option, IMO.

Finally, I've observed over almost 18 years of ownership and 17 years of internet DVC discussions starting on the old Prodigy site, the natural course of these analysis is often for one so inclined to find a way to justify the purchase rather than to truly take an objective look.

crisi
04-20-2012, 07:08 AM
Finally, I have yet to see anyone include the intangible value associated with DVC. As a Marriott owner I can stay for much less off property, but it's not as convenient. There's value to staying onsite. Being able to log on at 8:00 am at the exact 11 month window and get the exact room you want without any of the hassles or renting...value there. Discounts on annual passes and other items...value there too.

So while the analysis is good, it may be too much of a good thing. It's important to realize that a lot of this analysis is dealing with the theoretical and is, in the end, just as likely to turn out completely different than any of us predicted.

There is also negative "intangible value" - DVC encourages people to take trips they might skip without the timeshare. Even if you intend to go to Disney every year, there might be a year money is really tight and you skip it - with DVC you may make that trip work. We saw that over and over again in 2009 and 2010 around here.

As Dean said, there is value that equals negative savings - how many of us have treated friends and family to a room? How many of us would do that with cash reservations? How many people have discovered that a two bedroom is so much nicer than the studio they ran the comparisons on? Or started with the number of points they needed to replace their cash trips, and then bought a few more (we can sneak in a weekend over Food and Wine, or in Early December), and now end up going more than once a year.

Too much analysis and you don't act. But when you cherry pick the good part of the analysis, you end up in the situation we've seen here over and over again - a young couple who can afford DVC in the short term and buys it for the family they hope to start soon, but forgets that kids are going to cost money - probably a lot more money than they expect. Or someone with a mortgage with a balloon. Or someone who is already towards the financial edge driving an older car - the DVC payments are fine until the mechanic says "this one isn't worth fixing anymore" and they need a car loan and then the next week the furnace goes out. Its easy to get emotionally invested in the purchase, and then get emotionally invested in the ownership - and hang on to long.

And I've seen a lot of something else as well. People who did afford Disney vacations every year while their kids were growing up and never felt a financial pinch. Who are getting the family contribution for college and saying "how am I supposed to pay this?" Or hit retirement age without having managed to save quite enough to be as comfortable as they would like.

Now, I'm very financially conservative - and my own "rules" around DVC are pretty different and would result in a lot less people owning. But I've also seen people jump through hoops to justify what they want where you don't need near my level of conservatism to see that its a bad idea. Like, Dean, I've spent a lot of time watching these boards - and out there right now is someone who is cherry picking information...who is looking at the person who took out a loan (that they could afford) and saying 'it worked out ok for them.' We don't tend to get a lot of people who have to sell after a year or two of ownership, having taken a bath on the deal, hanging around telling us how it didn't work. Or someone who owned for twenty years saying "you know, I could have maybe skipped a few vacations so my kids didn't have such burdensome student loans."

The end result - you can either afford to sink around five figures into future vacations, and then commit to $1000 or so in dues, plus vacation costs, every year for years (probably plan to ten), or you can't. If you look at that total and aren't seeing value - don't buy even if you can afford it. But if you do see value and you can afford it, go for it. It isn't the cheapest option, but I'm not driving the cheapest car I could either.

(ETA: We talk a lot around here about how much this costs - and almost nothing about the other end of it - how much each of us has to spend. i.e. we almost never discuss income or net worth. I know that there are some pretty well off members posting on this board who can "afford" pretty much whatever they want. And I know how easy it is to fall into the trap of "well, if they can afford it, I can too." When you have a seven figure net worth, throwing $10k at a timeshare purchase is not something that is going to make or break you if you don't squeeze every dollar of value out of it. When your net worth is -$20k in a house that is under water, it might.)

DougEMG
04-20-2012, 01:22 PM
There is also negative "intangible value" - DVC encourages people to take trips they might skip without the timeshare. Even if you intend to go to Disney every year, there might be a year money is really tight and you skip it - with DVC you may make that trip work. We saw that over and over again in 2009 and 2010 around here.

As Dean said, there is value that equals negative savings - how many of us have treated friends and family to a room? How many of us would do that with cash reservations? How many people have discovered that a two bedroom is so much nicer than the studio they ran the comparisons on? Or started with the number of points they needed to replace their cash trips, and then bought a few more (we can sneak in a weekend over Food and Wine, or in Early December), and now end up going more than once a year.

Too much analysis and you don't act. But when you cherry pick the good part of the analysis, you end up in the situation we've seen here over and over again - a young couple who can afford DVC in the short term and buys it for the family they hope to start soon, but forgets that kids are going to cost money - probably a lot more money than they expect. Or someone with a mortgage with a balloon. Or someone who is already towards the financial edge driving an older car - the DVC payments are fine until the mechanic says "this one isn't worth fixing anymore" and they need a car loan and then the next week the furnace goes out. Its easy to get emotionally invested in the purchase, and then get emotionally invested in the ownership - and hang on to long.

And I've seen a lot of something else as well. People who did afford Disney vacations every year while their kids were growing up and never felt a financial pinch. Who are getting the family contribution for college and saying "how am I supposed to pay this?" Or hit retirement age without having managed to save quite enough to be as comfortable as they would like.

Now, I'm very financially conservative - and my own "rules" around DVC are pretty different and would result in a lot less people owning. But I've also seen people jump through hoops to justify what they want where you don't need near my level of conservatism to see that its a bad idea. Like, Dean, I've spent a lot of time watching these boards - and out there right now is someone who is cherry picking information...who is looking at the person who took out a loan (that they could afford) and saying 'it worked out ok for them.' We don't tend to get a lot of people who have to sell after a year or two of ownership, having taken a bath on the deal, hanging around telling us how it didn't work. Or someone who owned for twenty years saying "you know, I could have maybe skipped a few vacations so my kids didn't have such burdensome student loans."

The end result - you can either afford to sink around five figures into future vacations, and then commit to $1000 or so in dues, plus vacation costs, every year for years (probably plan to ten), or you can't. If you look at that total and aren't seeing value - don't buy even if you can afford it. But if you do see value and you can afford it, go for it. It isn't the cheapest option, but I'm not driving the cheapest car I could either.

(ETA: We talk a lot around here about how much this costs - and almost nothing about the other end of it - how much each of us has to spend. i.e. we almost never discuss income or net worth. I know that there are some pretty well off members posting on this board who can "afford" pretty much whatever they want. And I know how easy it is to fall into the trap of "well, if they can afford it, I can too." When you have a seven figure net worth, throwing $10k at a timeshare purchase is not something that is going to make or break you if you don't squeeze every dollar of value out of it. When your net worth is -$20k in a house that is under water, it might.)

All very excellent points.

While I certainly can't afford whatever I want (I really really want a house in Golden Oaks :cool1: ), I'm well enough off (no mortage, no loans, high savings, good income and good pension plan) that if my DVC drops to $0 tomorrow and I have to walk away, it will not effect my current lifestyle.

Having said all that, I still did numerous calculations to make sure that DVC worked out to be a better option than just travelling the way we normally did. Hence my obsession with numbers.

As has been said numerous times this is a luxury prepaid vacation purchase and your purchase will eventually be worth $0 (and it may be worth $0 soon than you think or plan for).

Dean
04-20-2012, 04:37 PM
All very excellent points.

While I certainly can't afford whatever I want (I really really want a house in Golden Oaks :cool1: ), I'm well enough off (no mortage, no loans, high savings, good income and good pension plan) that if my DVC drops to $0 tomorrow and I have to walk away, it will not effect my current lifestyle.

Having said all that, I still did numerous calculations to make sure that DVC worked out to be a better option than just travelling the way we normally did. Hence my obsession with numbers.

As has been said numerous times this is a luxury prepaid vacation purchase and your purchase will eventually be worth $0 (and it may be worth $0 soon than you think or plan for).This discussion points out several things. That everyone's situation is different, that many make bad choices and that there are assumptions to be made that may not may not end up being accurate. There is risk in buying, even in the best circumstance. For Deluxe on property not heavy on weekends for those that can afford it and want to go at least around every other year, it's a pretty easy choice. Non DVC timeshares can be even cheaper and give other options but are not for everyone. I'm sure you'll enjoy DVC.

DougEMG
04-20-2012, 08:21 PM
This discussion points out several things. That everyone's situation is different, that many make bad choices and that there are assumptions to be made that may not may not end up being accurate. There is risk in buying, even in the best circumstance. For Deluxe on property not heavy on weekends for those that can afford it and want to go at least around every other year, it's a pretty easy choice. Non DVC timeshares can be even cheaper and give other options but are not for everyone. I'm sure you'll enjoy DVC.

Totally agree with you.

ELMC
04-20-2012, 09:21 PM
There is also negative "intangible value" - DVC encourages people to take trips they might skip without the timeshare. Even if you intend to go to Disney every year, there might be a year money is really tight and you skip it - with DVC you may make that trip work. We saw that over and over again in 2009 and 2010 around here.

As Dean said, there is value that equals negative savings - how many of us have treated friends and family to a room? How many of us would do that with cash reservations? How many people have discovered that a two bedroom is so much nicer than the studio they ran the comparisons on? Or started with the number of points they needed to replace their cash trips, and then bought a few more (we can sneak in a weekend over Food and Wine, or in Early December), and now end up going more than once a year.

Too much analysis and you don't act. But when you cherry pick the good part of the analysis, you end up in the situation we've seen here over and over again - a young couple who can afford DVC in the short term and buys it for the family they hope to start soon, but forgets that kids are going to cost money - probably a lot more money than they expect. Or someone with a mortgage with a balloon. Or someone who is already towards the financial edge driving an older car - the DVC payments are fine until the mechanic says "this one isn't worth fixing anymore" and they need a car loan and then the next week the furnace goes out. Its easy to get emotionally invested in the purchase, and then get emotionally invested in the ownership - and hang on to long.

And I've seen a lot of something else as well. People who did afford Disney vacations every year while their kids were growing up and never felt a financial pinch. Who are getting the family contribution for college and saying "how am I supposed to pay this?" Or hit retirement age without having managed to save quite enough to be as comfortable as they would like.

Now, I'm very financially conservative - and my own "rules" around DVC are pretty different and would result in a lot less people owning. But I've also seen people jump through hoops to justify what they want where you don't need near my level of conservatism to see that its a bad idea. Like, Dean, I've spent a lot of time watching these boards - and out there right now is someone who is cherry picking information...who is looking at the person who took out a loan (that they could afford) and saying 'it worked out ok for them.' We don't tend to get a lot of people who have to sell after a year or two of ownership, having taken a bath on the deal, hanging around telling us how it didn't work. Or someone who owned for twenty years saying "you know, I could have maybe skipped a few vacations so my kids didn't have such burdensome student loans."

The end result - you can either afford to sink around five figures into future vacations, and then commit to $1000 or so in dues, plus vacation costs, every year for years (probably plan to ten), or you can't. If you look at that total and aren't seeing value - don't buy even if you can afford it. But if you do see value and you can afford it, go for it. It isn't the cheapest option, but I'm not driving the cheapest car I could either.

(ETA: We talk a lot around here about how much this costs - and almost nothing about the other end of it - how much each of us has to spend. i.e. we almost never discuss income or net worth. I know that there are some pretty well off members posting on this board who can "afford" pretty much whatever they want. And I know how easy it is to fall into the trap of "well, if they can afford it, I can too." When you have a seven figure net worth, throwing $10k at a timeshare purchase is not something that is going to make or break you if you don't squeeze every dollar of value out of it. When your net worth is -$20k in a house that is under water, it might.)

Very well put and quite frankly, there's nothing in this post that I can disagree with. I suppose I was just reading the analysis posts from a different perspective and didn't consider that other potential buyers might be in a different situation from myself. Thanks for opening up my eyes.

crisi
04-21-2012, 07:51 AM
All very excellent points.

While I certainly can't afford whatever I want (I really really want a house in Golden Oaks :cool1: ), I'm well enough off (no mortage, no loans, high savings, good income and good pension plan) that if my DVC drops to $0 tomorrow and I have to walk away, it will not effect my current lifestyle.

Having said all that, I still did numerous calculations to make sure that DVC worked out to be a better option than just travelling the way we normally did. Hence my obsession with numbers.

As has been said numerous times this is a luxury prepaid vacation purchase and your purchase will eventually be worth $0 (and it may be worth $0 soon than you think or plan for).

I like the numbers too, I'm an accountant by training. And us numbers geeks will take these discussions into places where those that aren't good with that don't follow, they only look for the conclusion "I'll save money." And that isn't a valid conclusion if you have risk that isn't shown in the numbers or if your use turns out different than your model. But for people like you - or me - the answer to the numbers question "will I save money" is really an academic exercise - it won't change our lives much if we end up spending more each year or if we sell our contracts for pennies on the dollar. For a lot of people, it is going to make a big difference in the quality of their non-Disney life if they get that answer wrong.

DougEMG
04-21-2012, 01:50 PM
I like the numbers too, I'm an accountant by training. And us numbers geeks will take these discussions into places where those that aren't good with that don't follow, they only look for the conclusion "I'll save money." And that isn't a valid conclusion if you have risk that isn't shown in the numbers or if your use turns out different than your model. But for people like you - or me - the answer to the numbers question "will I save money" is really an academic exercise - it won't change our lives much if we end up spending more each year or if we sell our contracts for pennies on the dollar. For a lot of people, it is going to make a big difference in the quality of their non-Disney life if they get that answer wrong.

I'd say that at least half the SSR contracts I've make offers on are all with people who still have a loan balance on their contracts and can't afford to sell without getting their loan amount. Not a nice spot to be in and buying DVC did not work out the way they planned.