$100 a point for BCV

[tarzanman]

Is it not feasible that DVC, knowing how many people are waiting for BCV to start selling, could start offering BCV at $100/point to start? They show no signs of slowing down price increases at this time and if they start selling by the beginning of next year, VWL might be to $85 by then, if not sold out.

DxL 4/00
DVC 4/00-BWV
VB,VWL (add ons)
BWV 9/00, 12/01
VB 9/00, 5/01
OKW 1/01
DCL 1/01, 12/01-1/02 New Years Cruise


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[CarolMN]

Disney seems to have a pretty good handle on "what the market will bear". Even though it is selfish on my part, I'd rather see a higher buy-in cost than a point schedule that is higher than the BWV (or VWL) resort. As a BWV owner, I worry a little about the "increased competiton" for BWV reservations after the 7 month window opens. I also believe that a higher buy-in cost will make my BWV points worth more on the resale market. Of course this last is really only a plus for someone actually willing to sell. And that is NOT me! :D

[tarzanman]

I totally agree with you there. I wouldn't mind a higher resale or rental price per point. I just wonder what people think that the market is right now. Even though we don't want the price to go up, I still think that for the value $100 is not a bad price. I have bought at 3 different prices now. It is still an exceptional value.

DxL 4/00
DVC 4/00-BWV
VB,VWL (add ons)
BWV 9/00, 12/01
VB 9/00, 5/01
OKW 1/01
DCL 1/01, 12/01-1/02 New Years Cruise


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[nuthut]

you are absolutely right. $100 is the opening price according to the guide at the BWV member meeting

[tarzanman]

I thought that I heard that right. I was given that same info. That is what they are saying for the starting rate. It could go higher as time goes on. Scary huh?

DxL 4/00
DVC 4/00-BWV
VB,VWL (add ons)
BWV 9/00, 12/01
VB 9/00, 5/01
OKW 1/01
DCL 1/01, 12/01-1/02 New Years Cruise


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[minimahaki]

Talk about a re-sale profit.....
I said talk about I wouldn't sell for all the tea in China!!!
Lauretta
DVC MEMBERS SINCE May 1993
:cool:

[DVCDAVE]

What....? $100 per point by fall of 2002 ? Why that's a 30% price rise ! Almost 15% per annum increase. That is hard to swallow. Where is Richyams on this ?......

http://houseofdisney.homestead.com/files/vacclub01.gif

WDW:
76,77,78,87,FW
92,Offsite
95 POL
96(2), GF,Offsite
97,GF
98,99,00,FW
8/00 DVC member @ BWV
3/01 BWV, FW
3/01 DVC member @ WLV
11/01 BWV !
3/02 VWL !

[tarzanman]

I am like you. A DVC membership at VWL, BWV, and VB. I was hoping to be able to get into BCV but I might have to rent out some points that already have to raise the money to do it.

DxL 4/00
DVC 4/00-BWV
VB,VWL (add ons)
BWV 9/00, 12/01
VB 9/00, 5/01
OKW 1/01
DCL 1/01, 12/01-1/02 New Years Cruise


http://gennaroworld.topcities.com

[DVCDAVE]

First the tulip bulb mania, the south sea land bubble, rail road stocks,precious metals, baseball cards, bennnie babies, dot.com stocks.....NOW DVC !!! ;) LOL LOL ! Don't we ever learn anything!

If it hits $100 per point that means I made 49.25% on my first 275 pts, and 37.5% on my second 275 pts. ! I think I might hit the bid and be a cash customer for a while and buy back in later on the lower price.....seriously.

http://houseofdisney.homestead.com/files/vacclub01.gif

WDW:
76,77,78,87,FW
92,Offsite
95 POL
96(2), GF,Offsite
97,GF
98,99,00,FW
8/00 DVC member @ BWV
3/01 BWV, FW
3/01 DVC member @ WLV
11/01 BWV !
3/02 VWL !

[tarzanman]

I was thinking that maybe I would still get them at $100 because if I wait, I wil have to shell out more, even on a resale.

DxL 4/00
DVC 4/00-BWV
VB,VWL (add ons)
BWV 9/00, 12/01
VB 9/00, 5/01
OKW 1/01
DCL 1/01, 12/01-1/02 New Years Cruise


http://gennaroworld.topcities.com

[PamOKW]

Well January 1999-June 2001 will be a 15% increase with the price going from $65 to $75. Disney will sell BCV for what people will pay.

I think this higher per point cost is among the factors killing offsite DVC's. People just aren't as quick to shell out that kind of cash for a non-WDW property.

There was mention yesterday of sales possibly starting in September. The question was whether that was Sept. 2001 or 2002. Does anyone know the answer on that score?

[DVCDAVE]

Remember, Our real estate interest is really nothing more than a triple net lease on that real estate. It has a finite life. It ends in 2042. There is a point where the price just doesn't have the economies to justify the remaining useful life of the lease. I don't know where that price is, but maybe there is a Harvard MBA on this Board who could tell us, and Disney where it is.

If demand is that strong to justify the $100 price I have to believe that Disney is smart enough to start building a lot more DVC units on site to sell more and more units, and capture all those ticket buying, trinket shiopping, food consuming guests. Just my opinion though.

http://houseofdisney.homestead.com/files/vacclub01.gif

WDW:
76,77,78,87,FW
92,Offsite
95 POL
96(2), GF,Offsite
97,GF
98,99,00,FW
8/00 DVC member @ BWV
3/01 BWV, FW
3/01 DVC member @ WLV
11/01 BWV !
3/02 VWL !

[DVCDAVE]

PAMOKW Quote: "Well January 1999-June 2001 will be a 15% increase with the price going from $65 to $75. "


That time period is a period of 2 1/2 years. Annualized that is not 15% it is an uncompounded 6% per annum. About twice the inflation rate nationaly. Maybe arouind the inflation rate in the Orlando Metro area.

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WDW:
76,77,78,87,FW
92,Offsite
95 POL
96(2), GF,Offsite
97,GF
98,99,00,FW
8/00 DVC member @ BWV
3/01 BWV, FW
3/01 DVC member @ WLV
11/01 BWV !
3/02 VWL !

[TnRobin]

Hum lets see, but a bunch of points today at $72 (Or $67 with MB - don't need this years points). Wait until next year when BCV goes on sale for $100. Sell my points next year on resale market for $90 (net of commissions) lets see that is about a 30% Return on Investment. :D :D

Disney Vacation Club Board Co-Moderator
DVC and Cruise Chat Hostess
Cruise Board List Mistress

<font size=4 color=blue font face="Comic Sans MS">Robin

[tarzanman]

Do you think that perhaps DVC would maintain a lower purchase price for VB and HH while raising it at WDW resorts just to maintain the current sales rate?

DxL 4/00
DVC 4/00-BWV
VB,VWL (add ons)
BWV 9/00, 12/01
VB 9/00, 5/01
OKW 1/01
DCL 1/01, 12/01-1/02 New Years Cruise


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[TnRobin]

tarzanman

For DVC to maintain that the point value at each resort is constant (ie a HH point can be exchanged for a BWV point) the price of the points at all resorts must remain constant.

Otherwise they would have to have multiple levels of point charts. One for each resort. In addition, the people at HH and VB would not be happy if you devalued thier points

Disney Vacation Club Board Co-Moderator
DVC and Cruise Chat Hostess
Cruise Board List Mistress

<font size=4 color=blue font face="Comic Sans MS">Robin

[tarzanman]

Why would they have to do that. You only get a 7 month window at the others without being an owner there. That seems fair. I am also not speaking of a big difference but I think that $10 or so a point might make a significant inpact.

DxL 4/00
DVC 4/00-BWV
VB,VWL (add ons)
BWV 9/00, 12/01
VB 9/00, 5/01
OKW 1/01
DCL 1/01, 12/01-1/02 New Years Cruise


http://gennaroworld.topcities.com

[LIDisneyFan]

I'm starting to move to PamOKW's way of thinking -At $100/pt, it would only make sense to make this part of a DVC II - something with an end date farther out than 2042. Otherwise,the value of that 'investment' is very low. Hopefully, we'd get exchange privileges at BCV.

Also, I can't imaging anyone paying out $100/pt for HH or VB - since they're not selling out at their current price. How could Disney make those properties attractive and still keep the selling price of points the same?

Again, if BCV comanded the $100, they might have to start a new program.

[tarzanman]

I was thinking that at first, but it is still worth it compared to the cash prices.

DxL 4/00
DVC 4/00-BWV
VB,VWL (add ons)
BWV 9/00, 12/01
VB 9/00, 5/01
OKW 1/01
DCL 1/01, 12/01-1/02 New Years Cruise


http://gennaroworld.topcities.com

[PamOKW]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>That time period is a period of 2 1/2 years. Annualized that is not 15% it is an uncompounded 6% per annum. [/quote]

I realize it's not the 15% or 30% increase we are now discussing but it is a big change in how the prices had gone up previously. The price was at $62.75 from July 1995 to January 1999 or nearly 3 1/2 years when it went up about 4% from $62.75 to $65. To have now gone up 15% in 2 1/2 years is a big bump. It worked. Maybe they feel they can get even more.

[DVCDAVE]

Sorry PAMOKW, the way I read your post, and they way you ment it got mixed up somewhere.

But, I do agree with the above posts, to justify $100 it would have to be DVC II, so they can keep VB and HH at the lower price, and still try to move those properites out of inventory.

http://houseofdisney.homestead.com/files/vacclub01.gif

WDW:
76,77,78,87,FW
92,Offsite
95 POL
96(2), GF,Offsite
97,GF
98,99,00,FW
8/00 DVC member @ BWV
3/01 BWV, FW
3/01 DVC member @ WLV
11/01 BWV !
3/02 VWL !

[invalid_character]

Sorry, but I think you're all wet!

BCV will become available as soon as VWL sells out. DVC will NOT idle their sales force and there would be nothing else for them to sell but BCV. VWL will likely sell out in less than a year, possibly this fall.

Say, VWL sells out end of January and BCV sells at $100 pp. The current price is $72 pp. That would be a 39% increase in 9 months or 51% annualized! And that's assuming that VWL doesn't sell out sooner, which it might! Even if BCV is wildly popular, that kind of increase would not work well for the rest of the network.

And they are NOT going to make BCV points more expensive than other resorts. Let's face it, that would cause unnecessary problems and they can easily make BCV more expensive (which they will) via the point schedules.

My prediction, for what it's worth, is that BCV
will initially cost $80-$85 pp. and will become available either late this year or early next year. It will sell out more quickly than the other resorts have and it will be slightly more expensive to stay there than at BWV standard view.

DVC is a great way to save money, and for some people, it may also prove to be profitable, but I don't think the $100pp scenario is likely to play out so soon.

[TnRobin]

Lets put it this way. We both buy today you pay $85 per point at VWL, I pay $75 per point. We both buy 230 points. You pay $19,550 and I pay $17,250. It still will take us both 8 points to say in a studio at OKW at the 7 month mark.

Disney Vacation Club Board Co-Moderator
DVC and Cruise Chat Hostess
Cruise Board List Mistress

<font size=4 color=blue font face="Comic Sans MS">Robin

[tarzanman]

I don't think that this is a probably at this point. This was info from a DVC meeting at BWV.

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DVC 4/00-BWV
VB,VWL (add ons)
BWV 9/00, 12/01
VB 9/00, 5/01
OKW 1/01
DCL 1/01, 12/01-1/02 New Years Cruise


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[Richyams]

Wow, have we confirmed that was from a BWV meeting?

My $85 prediction was scoffed at when I first made it.

There will not be a DVC II. They will not change the ending date. I believe they would have to have a sever drop in sales to do either of those things. BCV will be DVC. I have no doubt at all about these statements.

The scramble for another on site resort will be interesting. It will have to be announced soon. WHile BCV is larger than VWL, its not that much larger. It will also sell fast. Disney doesn't mind being forced to raise the price to slow sales.

I would also rather see them keep the same point schedule as BWV or VWL. I think that raising the points required is a bad thing. The demand for BWV at seven months, and OKW and VWL, is going to see dramatic increases if they raise the point schedule. I would certainly rather see $100 per point than an increased point schedule.

But I think the chances for DVC II and/or extending the 2042 date are zero.

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs", Karl Marx,This has failed every time it has been tried, why do we still have liberals?

[PamOKW]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> BCV will become available as soon as VWL sells out. DVC will NOT idle their sales force and there would be nothing else for them to sell but BCV. [/quote]

There is still HHI and Vero to sell in the interim. They cannot sell BCV until they get the go-ahead from Florida. If (big if) the BCV is the last DVC resort then the sales force will be pared back soon anyway. If the rumors of another large golf resort are true, they'll keep them on. Don't forget that Disney has other real estate interests including the Little Lake Bryan apartment area and Celebration that can occupy prime sales people they want to keep.

[Joeblack]

All this speculation will cause is for Disney to increase the price to what some consider to be an ok value: $100/pt. I don't think $100/pt is such a great deal anymore. I don't know if the core of DVC new customers (the ones that buy while vacationing in WDW, not informed through the internet)will find shelling out $15.000 for the minimum contract convenient. My guess is they will not. Then again, there are enough Disney addicts in this board to purchase all the points in small properties like WLV or BCV. Pete Werner should get paid by WDW and DVC since this boards a

Just one year ago I bough at BWV (resale) at $56/pt. It seems to me that DVC is going through a craze phase. Everybody wants in. What will happen if prices raise so dramatically is what happened to most internet companies during last 2 years. People started paying inflated prices for their stock, just to eventually realize the price was totally and will start selling which will drive the price way down (in resale).

I personally would not pay $100/pt to stay in any of the resorts.

On the other hand, interest rates are so ridiculously low now that the Break Even point of a DVC purchase is getting closer and closer. That might be a good reason for Disney to raise the initial price/pt, but a hundred bucks a point? I dunno.

[KristenVWL]

I think at some point, with price per point increases and point requirements for room (at BCV) increases, the DVC ceases to be a bargain. If you figure out what cash customers pay for rooms and divide it by the points required, you'll find that OKW and BWV are around $30/point for studios and $20 per point for 1 br. The VWL, on the other hand, are only $25/point and $17/point respectively. If you financed your purchase through dvc for ten years, the cost per point while you are paying it off is $13 per point. If they are going to raise the per point cost to $100, that makes a financed purchase point cost almost $19/point. (it would be cheaper to be a paying customer at that point - at least in a studio). That makes an investment take a whole lot longer to pay for itself within the expiration time in 40 years.

[disneydog]

they could charge $100 per point for all resorts, but offer mb on hh and vb at $25 per point buy back for 100% of points purchased. That seems to be the way they offset the different values of the resorts.

[DVCDAVE]

I think DISNEY DOG has a good point about HH and VB. I also think RICHYAMS has a good point about the point schedule for BCV. If they infact raise the price to $100/pt AND put in a higher point schedule, they are actully raising the price twice. as customers planning their purchase there will have to buy more points to stay for a given planned vacation. That would also disrupt the rest of DVC membership buy favoring or handicapping (Depending on your point of view) one property over another.

Itis going to be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next year. WebmasterPete's bandwith is going to get tight for sure !

I would still like to hear some confirmation on this. Did anyone else hear this at a DVC member meeting !!! Is anyone going down soon that could ask this at a meeting. The people who heard this, what was the guide's name ??? Maybe DOC could call one of his contacts for a follow up on this?

http://houseofdisney.homestead.com/files/vacclub01.gif

WDW:
76,77,78,87,FW
92,Offsite
95 POL
96(2), GF,Offsite
97,GF
98,99,00,FW
8/00 DVC member @ BWV
3/01 BWV, FW
3/01 DVC member @ WLV
11/01 BWV !
3/02 VWL !

[Dean]

I think $100 per point at the start or even at the end of BCV selling is a bit of a stretch. I doubt it will even see $90 pp though the mid $80's is feasible. I do suspect that the points per room will be marginally higher than WLV and therefore higher than BWV. Higher points and cost per point with a lessening length of time remaining on the RTU is hard to swallow.

As for figuring the value of our points compared to what Disney charges, that is misleading. You can't just take the listed price for a room, find the number of points for that season and room and divide. Disney does not rent most rooms for the "rack rate". You'd need to compare to various specials both on and off property to get a feel for what is reasonable. If you're the sort of person that would go to WDW, pay full price to get a specific room type and location, you can look at it that way. Most of us would compare to the overall options available to us and make a decision. If I could get a 2 BR at Marriott's Grande Vista or Cypress Harbor for $199-324 per week, I don't think I'd pay $3000-4000 for a 2 BR at BWV. I like being on property but not that much. Moderates have current specials as low at $94 per night and I've seen specials at AKL for $159.

Dean

[invalid_character]

I've heard that it is likely that BCV will only have a preferred view and the rate will be comparable to BWV preferred view.

BWV standard view will then be the cheapest way to get the Epcot location.

[WebmasterDoc]

Well, I can see I'm just gonna have to go back down there and ask! It's a nasty job, but somebody has to do it! :)

We will arrive at OKW next Thurs and I'll try to ask some questions. I'll try to report in if I learn anything.

I, too, will be surprised if BCV opens at $100, but actually, nothing surprises me much anymore! Stay Tuned!

Doc DVC Board Co-Moderator
doc@wdwinfo.com

[ralph]

Gee, Doc, thanks. We really appreciate the sacrifice ;). Need someone to carry your laptop?

Ralph

[DVCDAVE]

Gee DOC, THANKS ! Either WebmasterPete, or DVC should have you on their payroll ;)

http://houseofdisney.homestead.com/files/vacclub01.gif

WDW:
76,77,78,87,FW
92,Offsite
95 POL
96(2), GF,Offsite
97,GF
98,99,00,FW
8/00 DVC member @ BWV
3/01 BWV, FW
3/01 DVC member @ WLV
11/01 BWV !
3/02 VWL !