For those who so quickly crowned Dreamworks the new king of animation

[All Aboard]

Through 6 days of release, Spirit (at $25.7 m) trails Atlantis by more than $2m.

While Spirit is up against two blockbusters, it was a management decision to release when they did. A decision that figures into the entire mix when comparing the strength of the two studios.

Seems PDI/Dreamworks is a much more powerful combination than Dreamworks alone. Looks like Spirit will come in at about $85m (similar to the numbers some folks here laughed at for ENG and Atlantis.)

I'm not so quick to hand over the crown for Prince of Egypt, Road to El Dorado, King of Dreams and Spirit. Nor am I when we compare the work with the aid of outsiders (Antz, Chicken Run, Shrek v. Toy Story(s) Bug's Life & Monster's Inc.)

Let's see how Lilo does.

[airlarry!]

I like reading www.boxofficeguru.com for his takes on the weekend grosses, how they compared to last year's, and for his guesstimates for next weekend.

Anybody willing to put their rep on the line for an estimate of the Lilo numbers? Just for fun, or we'll play for a bar of Mickey soap if Sir Baron or M. Duck will bring an extra one back from their trips this summer.

I'm thinking $135 million....subject to revision after I read M. AV's detailed analysis. ;)

[All Aboard]

Using the "Price is Right" strategy, I'll bid $136M.

[Bstanley]

What's the time period, the first weekend, or month, or?

[Bstanley]

OKley dokley, overall domestic take it is.

Better than 'Pocahontas' - but up against much tougher competition than it had, perhaps not as good as Tarzan - but Tarzan had similarly tough competition...

I'll bid $150 Million.

[Captain Crook]

$180 million...What a shocker this one will be...After the negative surprise of Spirit (money loser from the new "king")...This one will more than double Atlantis...
:smooth: :smooth: :bounce: :smooth: :smooth:

[Another Voice]

Okay – I’ll play but only if I can use Hollywood rules. That means I get two answers up front and the ability to change my mind at any time. Hey, it works for Michael…

What I think will happen is that ‘Lilo’ simply gets lost in the shuffle. Disney’s marketing has really collapsed on this one. I don’t mean all the ads on television; I’m talking about the surrounding hype that has to accompany a Big Summer Movie. There is no background buzz going on about this movie. There are no local TV anchors talking about it, no mentions on the Sally-Oprah-Regis circuit, no big segments on the “summer must see” lists – all that before-the-fact word of mouth a smaller movie needs to survive in the summer box office wars. Being an orphan film may have really helped the movie-making process, but it’s really hurting ‘Lilo’ in getting the company behind it.

This movie is also going to upset a large segment of Disney fandom. No offense to anyone, but people who own more than ten Disney snowglobes are not going to like ‘Lilo and Stitch’. It is a different kind of movie in terms of style – but probably the most “Disney” movie in terms of tone since the days of Walt. Fans going to see “nice” along the lines of ‘Mulan’ or ‘Tarzan’ or ‘Monsters’ are going to be in for a surprise (actually a shock). As for the ‘Atlantis’ fanboys – save your money for ‘Treasure Planet’.

Drowned out on opening day by date-night ‘Minority Report’, caught in the backdraft of family films ‘Spiderman’ and ‘Star Wars’ and thrown into an early grave by ‘Men in Black 2’ – ‘Lilo’ ends up earning $85 million through Labor Day.


Now what could happen (and what I really want to happen) is that word of mouth does kick in strong for ‘Lilo’. After a summer of hollow and intelligence-free movies, people find a movie that makes them feel something, a movie that actually gets them to react in the theater. Children will immediately respond to Lilo and to Stitch as characters – both embody what children feel these days as much as Snow White did to children in the 1930’s. Parents will be entertained more than their children will be and word will spread that this one truly is a different kind of Disney animated movie. I am still naïve enough to believe that quality still matters and I think it will matter in this case.

Coming in as the early blockbusters fade, and clearly superior to the manufactured drivel that follows it, ‘Lilo and Stitch’ developed ‘Shrek’-like legs that carry the movie throughout the summer. On Labor Day it has already passed the $250 million mark.


It used to be pretty easy to predict summer box office, but the rules have really changed these days. There is no middle ground anymore. A movie is either overly enriched by massive opening weekend crowds, or it’s unfairly tossed into an empty field. The more films are marketed like breakfast cereals, the more the market is being to treat them like that – it’s either an instant success or an instant failure.

[Captain Crook]

The more films are marketed like breakfast cereals...it's either an instant success or instant failure.
This sucks and it's the monolithic, conglomerated, prepackaged throw away pop inspired insipid lack of ethics corruptable and mindless money worshipping, money grubbing society that we have created that is to blame...Have I mentioned that I believe we are very near the end of civilization as we know it???
:smooth: :smooth: :bounce: :smooth: :smooth:

[Bstanley]

Always with the negative waves Moriarity!

[kidzmom3]

My kids are excited for it, and so are the other kids in our neighborhood, so I will go with 100 million, but I am suprised at the Spirit numbers as we saw it this weekend, the theatre was packed and we quite enjoyed the show and told our friends that it was a good movie to see.

[CM Tinkerbell]

I work for TDS and although most of our guests are fairly biased to the Disney product, there seems to be a great deal of excitement for this movie. There are so many people coming in saying that they are so anxious to go see this movie and the Lilo and Stitch merchandise has been doing very well. The thing that I noticed though, is the age range of the people coming in who are really excited about this film. Of course the little ones are going crazy over stitch, but I've talked to many older folks as well who are really excited. The other day was the topper though. There was a group of teens (which included both guys and girls) who came in and sat in front of our screen watching the Lilo and Stitch trailers. They were soooo excited. I couldn't help but laugh. So for some reason it seems to have a fairly wide appeal. I realy hope it does well. I know my family and I will be there on opening day for sure!

[YoHo]

I'm telling you the Trailers are Genious.


I found it interesting that the local Grocer replaced the AMidala Paper doll and Star Wars Coloring book display with a Lilo and Stitch one a week before Star Wars opened.


I'll play the Game. 175 Million.

[airlarry!]

As self-appointed Mediator, I'll close the books following the Labor Day Holiday...of course, if your number ends up being right at year's end, you can always crow that you meant Year End not Labor Day.... ;)

And to the winner?

How 'bout a pair of autographed Michael Eisner imagineering scissors used in various budget cutting celebrations? Or maybe two prizes: First prize could be a week's vacation with Paul Pressler at the Pop Century room of his choice. Second prize will be two weeks with Paul. ;)

[Another Voice]

I should say that I’m split about 55% to 45% on my low-end to high-end chances. This year has had more than a few box office surprises. I really do think that strong word of mouth can propel this movie very strongly. The Stitch character can catch on very strongly, much to the chagrin of parents, and that could really keep the box office strong.

I expect an opening around $30 million, but Mr. Scoop is correct when he says that the best indicator will be the following week’s drop-off. I think 20% is impossibly good, but anything below 35% would be an excellent sign.


Captain: “Have I mentioned that I believe we are very near the end of civilization as we know it???”

You’ve seen ‘Scooby Doo: The Movie’ too!!!!!

[Testtrack321]

Play: $149 Million

Lilo has generated no fan fare in the teen sector like Shrek did. I think it won't be a Lion King thing, but it will do better than Hunchback due to kiddie word of mouth.

[YoHo]

Actually, I've seen a lot of Teen and Youngadult awarness. Its the people who were young when Mermaid came out that seem to be the most excited.

[hopemax]

I have 2 modes of thought about L&S. Either it will be another movie in the $85-$110 million range, or it will be BIG.

But considering, Disney, Murphy's Law and that Burbank is now CGI I think I will go with BIG. $210 million

Oh, and the other thing that will go wrong for Disney is that the Disney Store will be inundated by teens and 20-somethings looking for Stitch-wear for themselves and find out the DS has turned into a kiddie store. Wonder if Hot Topic has licensed some Stitch T's...

[hopemax]

This movie is also going to upset a large segment of Disney fandom. No offense to anyone, but people who own more than ten Disney snowglobes are not going to like ‘Lilo and Stitch’.

Hey, AV can you explain this a little bit? I've got way more then 10 snowglobes (plus a ton of other Disney stuff) but I'm looking forward to L&S more than any non-Pixar Disney movie since Mulan.

I love the artistic look of the film, I love the presence Stitch has. I love that there aren't a bunch of pop star vocal talent to provide distraction. I like that the characters aren't black & white, good/evil.

[Bob O]

I think if the film get to 100 million it will be lucky and im sure with the cost of making the movie and marketing that would be a loss. I hope im wrong(i own disney stock) but this is a tough marketplace and wont be on the same amount of screens as past movies and their is little hype and it seems kids today will perfer to see movies like MIB/Spiderman etc than animated films !!!
What did Ice Age end up making??? And do you think the dsiney film can beat it at the box office, because if it doesnt that is a serious failure on disney's part!!!

[airlarry!]

Woah, Bob.

Ice Age is still in the Top 20 and has done a stateside cum of $173 mill.

That's way more than anybody would have predicted...and if L&S does even 2/3 of that, I'm gonna cheer.

Why the long shot? I hate to even jinx this....but...look at the numbers every time Disney puts out two animated features in one year.

It doesn't even make sense for Disney to push L&S and Treasure Planet in the same year...I think that people like having Disney event movies, and they look forward to seeing one about every 12-18 months. It seems (and my memory might be wrong) but we always used to look for that late summer all the way to Thanksgiving release from Disney during the Second HeyDey.

[Another Voice]

History….

‘Treasure Planet’ was supposed to be the big summer event movie for Disney, ‘Lilo’ was supposed to be a cheap filler at the holidays because there is no Pixar film this year. ‘TP’ ran into major story problems and then Eisner had a few helpful suggestions that basically trashed the other two thirds of the animation. Florida was ordered to rush ‘Lilo’ and the two films switched release dates. That is, assuming ‘TP’ actually gets released this year…

I think there’s a strong chance that ‘Lilo’ will top ‘Ice Age’. It’s a much better and richer movie. If a good word of mouth starts, it should catch on.

The reason I made the snow globe comment is that ‘Lilo’ is really different than others in more than just style. There’s been a bad trend in the post-Lion King films to really soften the animated movies. There are plenty of people out there (I hear from them) that they like soft, perfect heroines with problems that fit easily into lyrics, cute and cuddly comic sidekicks, and stories that don’t require much thinking.

The stories for ‘Mulan’, ‘Tarzan’ and ‘Hunchback’ have none of the sharp, painful and truthful edges of their original stories. A lot of people now expect that. Some people – who I factiously label the snow globers, think that’s an improvement. But warm and fuzzy makes for short lived entertainment. Only stories that contain a core of truth survive the long run. The reason that the legend of Mulan has survived for a thousand years is because it speaks to central beliefs of Chinese society – not because of a cute dragon sidekick and an Oprah-hear-me-roar third grade civics refresher course.

There are no perfect characters in ‘Lilo’, their problems aren’t set to music. But they are very truthful. The heroines aren’t perky and they are not up the challenges of their lives. Stitch embodies a lot of childhood and adult fears. To say more might ruin some of the fun.

And just remember the already famous line – “It’s okay, my doggie found the chainsaw”. You’d never hear that coming from Mulan.

[Planogirl]

Who in the world crowned Dreamworks the new king of animation? I would say they're more like the exiled Prince (thinking of J. Katzenberg).

I want to try my luck at bidding too. I'm going for 142 million. I'm presuming that Lilo won't be overshadowed by Spiderman and Star Wars by then like Spirit is right now and Scooby-Doo will be a flop. When is the Men in Black movie coming out?

Any more animated movies coming up soon? I like all of this. :D

[All Aboard]

Who in the world crowned Dreamworks the new king of animation? I won't name names, but I remember three folks distinctly. One of them even changed their signature to point out the fact.

[DisDuck]

OK folks the Duck is coming in at $165mil. I hope to see it at AMC Downtown Disney during my stay last week of June. I think the teen crowd might be bigger than some think if my 17yo DD is a barometer. She already wants a plush.

[All Aboard]

Duck, our 4 year old has the full set of character toys. She has no idea what 2/3 of their names are (only Lilo and Stitch) but she loves playing with them.

On the converse, she has had no interest in any point in time in any of the Atlantis characters. The DVD has only come off the shelf once.

[d-r]

$225 million.

[Testtrack321]

Originally posted by YoHo
Actually, I've seen a lot of Teen and Youngadult awarness. Its the people who were young when Mermaid came out that seem to be the most excited.

I'm 15 1/2 and have a social life (belive it or not :rolleyes: ) and have found very little L&S awareness. In 8th grade at the end of the year, a week after Shrek, people were reciting lines like Monty Python fans and were drawing the Shrek logos in eachothers yearbooks. If I say "Lilo & Stitch", they will have a blank look on their face and think it is a cloathing brand. "Atlantis" had more awareness than Lilo right now.

[mistermouse]

$205.6M
After a 26 week run

[HB2K]

Sorry, I took so long to hop into this thread.

I won't name names, but I remember three folks distinctly. One of them even changed their signature to point out the fact.
I'm sure I'm one of the assumed "Dreamworks is King" cheerers. While I don't think they're king yet, I think they have the Mo on their side....

I saw Spirit. I thought the Animation was absolutely BREATH TAKING. I loved the actual art of the movie. Very rich and very detailed. My main problem was there was no clear cut, totally evil enemy. The US general was the closest to it, but even he wasn't totally evil (I won't spoil the ending for those who haven't seen it).

My other problem with the movie is it shoots over children's heads. The story was too serious and there wasn't really anything in the movie for the younger set to get interested in. More of an teen-adult story. To really understand what was happening you had to know the story of the mid-west. My son doesn't understand how the horses were wild, why the Indians were fighting with the soldiers, etc. Lion King, and others didn't rely on you knowing the story beforehand either because they told it from the begining to the end or it was a simple story. Spirit fails here.

I think the main reason Spirit's box office wasn't Boffo was because of it's release timing. I know it's the only "children's" movie available right now, but it still is basically going head to head with Star Wars & Spiderman...just horrible timing. Release it later in the year, or earlier...but that is a decision which Dreamworks made so they're responsible for it.

IMHO the same thing is going to happen to Lilo. My son loves it, and I think the trailers have done a good job of getting children excited about a Disney movie (the last time that happened to a non pixar movie I can't tell you). But it's dependance on the older crowd to push it to block buster status will be felt with the glut of other movies coming out within weeks of it's release. MIB2, Scooby Doo, etc will battle for the Teen & Adult ticket money...and I don't think it's a battle L&S can win.
And for the kiddies, don't forget Stuart Little 2 is coming out a month later which will limit the amount of time L&S can linger in the theaters.

Personally I think L&S will have a similar Box Office as Emporer's New Groove.

[cindyfan]

I agree with AV....."There's been a bad trend in the post Lion King films to really soften the animated movies." !!
This may be why there hasn't been a block buster like LK since then. I remember all the hype about Mufasa being killed, etc even before the movie was released. There was so much controversy about the "realism"!!!
But that was what made it such a good movie!!
If you think way back to such classics as Bambi....when his mother was killed! It is what brings out the emotion that makes a Disney movie great!

I haven't really seen or heard enough about L&S to guess how it will do. But we are definitely looking forward to it.
I have read the animation is excellent. That they used a new water-color technique. So even for that I am excited!!

The other thing that surprises me.....They really are NOT marketing L&S a whole lot as far as merchandise goes. At least I have not seen as much as other movies of late....such as Monsters,Inc. No toys anywhere except TDS, as far as I have seen, anyway.
But I am hoping this will be a hit for Disney!!!:D
Heaven knows they need one!!

[Bob O]

I would agree with HB2K regarding expected movie receipts.
I think they have less merchandise because the recent animated movies havent had the expected synergy with all the tie-ins. They then had to dump the excess merchandise at sale prices.

[daannzzz]

34 million the first week.
187 million for the run.
Shrugs shoulders!!!!

[Bstanley]

I think they have less merchandise because the recent animated movies havent had the expected synergy with all the tie-ins.

I think you hit the nail on the head. I imagine Disney's partners are being more cautious this time around.

Also unlike 'Atlantis', which had a ton of them, perhaps there aren't as many 'gadgets/vehicles' to make toys out of.

[All Aboard]

I think there were a ton of Atlantis things manufactured, but very few of them seemed to actually sell. The Lilo stuff is already selling at the Disney Store.

Took Nat to Spirit yesterday. She met up with two girls from school that happened to be there for the movie as well. They all sat together and when the L&S trailer ran, they all went nuts. I really think the youngest set is fired up about this movie.

[Bob O]

My daughters are going to see Spirit tonight so i will be able to report what they thought of the movie.
I think the trailers for L&S are very well done and i like stitch and the alien theme but wonder how well the movie is done and if this is something the public will buy as disneys latest animanted movies havent fared well.

[HB2K]

They all sat together and when the L&S trailer ran, they all went nuts. I really think the youngest set is fired up about this movie.
Ok, but is it going to be enough to power the movie to these moon shot Box Office numbers you're all predicting?

In order to make this movie a blockbuster, you are going to have to hook not only the younger set, but the teens & young adults (i.e. date flicks). I don't think this movie will be able to attract enough attention from all of the various demographics to make this movie a block buster, nor do I think it's up to the competition of surviving the whole summer when you have other children's fare available (i.e. Stuart Little 2, leftover Spirit, etc).

L&S will face competition for their primary customers (the younger set will have Stuart Little & Scooby Doo) and their secondary customers (the older set will have MIB2, Austin Powers 3, et al.)

Doesn't sound like a winning receipe for a block buster....

P.S. I can't wait to see Lilo & Stich. I'm just trying to be a realist about it's chances for success you all are predicting.

[Bstanley]

Is it just my poor memory or do we have a bigger selection of 'high expectation' films this summer than we have had in recent years?

[HB2K]

last year was the first of the "blockbusters that drop in a week".

[diznynut]

I think around $161 mil.

[YoHo]

Testtrack, I can't speak to what's the talk in the Halls, but in the Movie theaters, while watching the trailers everybody from all age groups was laughing and clapping and getting psyched for this movie.

If Disney had actually done some marketing, this would be a huge movie.

[hopemax]

But it's dependance on the older crowd to push it to block buster status will be felt with the glut of other movies coming out within weeks of it's release. MIB2, Scooby Doo, etc will battle for the Teen & Adult ticket money...and I don't think it's a battle L&S can win.

Random, meaningless tidbit for the day...

I don't know if you guys have seen the interactive "Aloha Stitch"...my Mom's Disney Store had 8 of them, they sold the last one today. All 8 were sold to adults with no kids living in their household.

[All Aboard]

Spirit (the next Lion King) v. Atlantis (major Disney flop) update number 2.

Through day 11:

Spirit - $39.9m
Atlantis - $45.2m

[airlarry!]

In keeping with Greg's update, let's update the Bids for Labor Day. Who will win the "REJECTED" inkstamp and pad set personally autographed by Paul Pressler and used in many responses to requests for budget restoration and maintenance. ;)

(numbers in millions)



airlarry! shoots for $135
Scoop orally argues his case for $110
gcurling, the scalawag, outbids airlarry! with $136
bstanley swings wildly between Poco & Tarz at $150
Capt Crook bids $180 billion....check that...$180 million (unless Eisner wrote and produced this one) ;)
bob o says "B&M Coaster!!!!!" .... err.... he bids $1 (proxy by scoop) or less than $100
Another Voice has lunch at the Peninsula Hotel, orders a double-decaffe late with extra mocha sprinkles, and gets his assistant to bid $85 or $250 (whichever is correct)
kidzmom3 cleans up with a $100
yoho, while kicking the tires on car #3, shouts "Rum! $175"
testtrack321 cuts class for $149 (none from highschoolers)
hopemax says movie $210 and Disneystores $0
planogirl says $142 scooby snacks
Disduck guesses $165 in tickets and plush alone
d-r $225
mistermouse says 205.6 million --the .6 is a tip AV leaves the hat check girl at the El Capitan
hb2k says Lilo throws off the Emperor's Groove and bids the same
cindyfan hopes for a hit -- this is not a bid, cindyfan!
daaannnnnzzzz Blinks $187
dznynut is crazy about the number $161


We are missing some regulars here....Jeff(s) & Baron most notably.

[Another Voice]

The Peninsula Hotel? Please, Samantha Brown of the Travel Channel watches my travels for all the hot and happening places….


While the buzz on ‘Lilo’ is not picking up as much as I’d like it too, this might be a very good time for the movie to come out. ‘Spirit’ is definitely a miss at the box office and the other family-acceptable films (‘Spider-man’ and ‘Star Wars’) are fading quickly now. The competing films after ‘Lilo’ – ‘Men in Black 2’ and ‘Scooby Doo’ all reek of the big-opening/fading fast trend of the last couple of summers. This leaves a good opening for a film with wide appeal. Hopefully ‘Lilo’ is that film

One of the new ideas in Hollywood is that children’s movies may now longer work at the box office. With the video release of movies coming just a few months after the theatrical, many parents may simply wait to rent the tape or buy the DVD than go through the hassle a theater visit with children. Only movies with broad appeal – children, teens and dating adults – have a chance for big numbers. The next test should come with ‘Stuart Little 2’, a film that seems to have the exact same demographics as ‘Spirit’ had.

[Testtrack321]

hehe

cut class

any way, Sprit has somewhat spreading in the high(school) class. Spidie and Wars was huge in school. Kids skipping (but not me ;) ) to see it.

Lilo- $149 mill
Spirit- $65 mill
Scooby- $125 mill

[cindyfan]

Okay, looks like I need to throw in a bid....:D
$157. :Pinkbounc

IMHO......It will do much better than Scooby!

[Another Voice]

The rule is that a children’s movie – one that only draws children – in no longer viable. The “cross-over” hits that can attract substantial teenage and some adult audiences are the real money earners. The surprise of ‘The Princess Diaries’ was the substantial number of teenage girls paying to watch the film.

‘Spirit’ only attracted the six year olds and is not a box office hit. ‘Lilo’ will be a hit if it’s able to attract a broader audience.

P.S. – Many of us go to great lengths to avoid any connection to the City of Los Angeles.

[Killer Fish]

I am in college and twenty years old and I can't wait to see this movie. I think it looks great. Unfortunately a lot of my friends just see it as another kiddie disney movie. I will say $140 million.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Domestic gross for L&S is $185M, worldwide 300M.

[ohioMickey]

It's anyones guess....

But since I am HOPEFUL and America does need a lighthearted, fun movie this summer....

I will go out on a limb and (hope for)... $250 million domestic through Labor Day

Now I have to get out there and start campaigning for it!!!!

Of course, Disney marketing will likely crush my dreams.

[DC7800]

I'll say about $130 million by Labor Day, though I really do hope Lilo & Stitch surprises all of us and is a runaway blockbuster. Seems to be an awful lot riding on this movie. A success here surely bodes well for the long-term prospects of Disney Feature Animation, while another percieved failure (ie, Atlantis) could be a complete disaster for the animation department (more "proof" such films really aren't feasible anymore).

[Planogirl]

We saw Spirit today and now I'm really worried about Lilo. Spirit was quite good IMO and had all of the ingredients that I would think is necessary for box office success. It was certainly more original and more heartwarming than Ice Age. Horses are supposedly very difficult to animate and these moved quite well and were also expressive. I saw no need for dialogue. As a matter of fact, the movie made me teary-eyed more than once and that's what the "good" Disney movies have always done. (My 9 year old DS got teary-eyed too but I promised not to tell. :D ) I hope that Spirit somehow does better somewhere? Overseas? Video?

I don't really understand why Spirit isn't doing well. And if it can't, can a little blue alien? Time will tell... :confused:

[AKemel]

I will say $180,525,000.00.
If it does more I think the rumor of adding Hawaii to EPCOT will resurface.

[MikePezz]

$142,376,598.45 exactly

[JRJStarman]

Put me in for $170 million.


Jason J.

[raidermatt]

$219 million.

[airlarry!]

Raidermatt & ohiomickey, your predictions are looking good right now...although Mike Pezz still has the most accurate. Is the .45 a tip? Ann Landers would not have approved of the amount.