Attendance in this economy? Really????

[DanenRox]

So I've re-up'd our subscription to another Disney site...this one predicts crowd levels for the coming year (among other things). In the next 12 mos, there are TWO DAYS they've predicted crowds at a "3"...(on a scale 1-10 with 10 = longer waits at major attractions). The remainder of the year, including brisk January to Hurricane-laden September, are 4's and higher! Really? Are they really predicting more crowds, higher attendance in the coming year...in this economy? Really?

[Inkmahm]

So I've re-up'd our subscription to another Disney site...this one predicts crowd levels for the coming year (among other things). In the next 12 mos, there is TWO DAYS they've predicted crowds at a "3"...(on a scale 1-10 with 10 = longer waits at major attractions). The remainder of the year, including brisk January to Hurricane-laden September are 4's and higher! Really? Are they really predicting more crowds, higher attendance in the coming year...in this economy? Really?

I guess it depends on what they predicted for THIS year. If they were predicting 5's and 6's, then the answer is no. They are not predicting more crowds in the coming year.

[mom2grace]

We were at WDW last week, and the local news was saying that tourism is about to be hit hard in central FL, the Europeans and South Americans are beginning to stay home, as well as the Americans.

I spoke to some Europeans in various lines, and they all said it's going to be much worse in Europe than in the US and travel will be way down.

[OneMoreTry]

This may mean DISCOUNTS.
Disney usually discounts resorts and not park tickets for the "general public."
Maybe they won't see us as the general public and throw us a park ticket "bone." I would bite.

[disneynutz]

Disney for a lot of folks is a pre-paid vacation. Arrangements were made months ago so they will still attend. Next year is when you will really see a slow down for cash Guests.

DVC will not be hit as hard on reservations but you will continue seeing people selling their contracts at low prices just to get rid of them.

That other website will update their projections when better information becomes available.

[DanenRox]

That other website will update their projections when better information becomes available.

That's what I'm guessing....I guess....because times of the year that routinely score low on crowd predictors are now higher across the board - across the months for that matter. :3dglasses

[jpolak]

I think when the balance of their vacation payment is due some people may have to cancel their trips. It's easy to book a vacation and make a small deposit, but paying the balance, getting airfare, and bringing spending money is very different ballgame.

[eliza61]

I'm one of the few people who don't think there's going to be a major down turn at disney (probably the sociologist in me)


-Generally in bad times, people turn to "vices" to escape. that's why Vegas, AC, movies, theme parks tend to do well compared to other industries in tough times. People need to escape.
-Disney is still a good "bang for your buck". Research any other vacations lately? I live on the east coast, let me tell you a week at one of the Jersey or Md shore beaches can easily set you back a couple of grand. $ for $ disney is still competitive. Throw in the ddp or free dining and for a vacation it's not so bad.
-Disney does an excellent job marketing how affordable it can be. Throw in AAA or a code discount and a family of 4 can do disney pretty darn cheap.
-Working folks tend to have a do or die attitude (or maybe it's just me. LOL) barring total job loss, I'm going to do a vacation. It may not be big but generally I will eat ramien noodles for months, cut back as much as humanly possible before I give up a vacation. Lastly regardless to what we think about it, people have and will charge vacations. I've done it before and while not the smartest move, I'm not going to be a hypocrite and throw stones at others who do.


I think there's going to be a slight slow down but I wouldn't count on getting into the GF for $89.00 bucks just yet.

[Coach81]

Forgive me for being so selfish, and perhaps even mean, but I for one am looking forward to perhaps lower park populations for the 2 perhaps 3 trips we have planned for next calendar year. I will not miss some of the european people and their chants and flags at all. The yelling and chanting often scared my youngest, and was uncalled for imo.

Lower crowds in '09.. sounds great :)

[wendyinoc]

I think there is a delay when it comes to travel. Most have been planning at least 6 months out. I also believe Europe still helps Disneyworld. With our dollar being low its cheapter to visit the U.S.

[dcfromva]

So I've re-up'd our subscription to another Disney site...this one predicts crowd levels for the coming year (among other things). In the next 12 mos, there are TWO DAYS they've predicted crowds at a "3"...(on a scale 1-10 with 10 = longer waits at major attractions). The remainder of the year, including brisk January to Hurricane-laden September, are 4's and higher! Really? Are they really predicting more crowds, higher attendance in the coming year...in this economy? Really?

So are you going to share with us, which two days should we all plan to go? :rotfl: :rotfl:

[spiceycat]

well when you consider that this year 1,2 or 3 were not on the charts - they are definitely saying less people will be there.

they had very few 4's this year.

lots of 9 and 10's this year.

the days when Sept or Dec were empty are gone. Disney has made it a popular destination no matter when. that say the higher crowds in springs - except for easter and palm, are less. so you can actually go in spring - just avoid when the locals have off for their spring break and you will be okay.

the food/wine have made Oct/nov very popular.

for april/may they had the flower/garden - think it is the lessor crowds in spring that disney made it to go March. (which before the last couple of years did not need any encouragement to be crowded)

It is definitely lovely in spring.

so if you are trying to find a time where WDW is not crowded - best bid is still Sept. May (unless mother days or memorial week) is okay too

[Brian Noble]

The time periods I am familiar with (late Feburary, late May) are both rated as lower crowds in 2009 than 2008.

Remember; that scale is calibrated to the maximum wait time at the three MK Mountains. A "4" means wait times never exceed 44 minutes at those attractions, even in the peak of the afternoon crowd. A 3 would be 34 minutes.

A day in MK when Space standby never gets to 45 minutes is a pretty darn good day.

[Chellymouse]

Interesting. Our friends are coming with us next Aug. and WDW is going to be $1000-$1500 LESS EXPENSIVE than their annual trip to Ocean Isle NC for the same amount of days and flying instead of driving. Their beach house rental is $2200 alone, not including gas to get there and back, all of their groceries and activities. It's costing them $1600 for park tickets and DDP and we are currently watching airfare, which is starting to drop. Disney is $ for $ a good choice for vacation. I just hope that us loyal DVCers get a bone thrown to us.

[BEASLYBOO]

We just got back from AKV Oct 16-Oct 19 and the resorts, hotels, restaurants, parks (including Universal) weren't crowded at all. We were truly surprised. The private schools were out but not public, so that may have affected crowds. Even without reservations our party of four got in without fuss. Jiko was near to empty one evening. I wonder what crowd rating the October period got?

[Brian Noble]

I just hope that us loyal DVCers get a bone thrown to us.
Don't hold your breath. Disney already has your money. There are many upsides to "prepaid vacations", but this is not one of them.

[Mickey'sApprentice]

Don't hold your breath. Disney already has your money. There are many upsides to "prepaid vacations", but this is not one of them.

It would really depend on whether or not Disney could make any money off of us, and how desperate they are for patrons. What if we got free park admission IF we purchased the dining plan?

I would think a bunch of DVC guest going to the parks for free and then coming back to the rooms to cook food bought off site would be the worst possible scenario for Disney. (I've already seen DISSERS talk about the $0 trip to WDW between APs and DVC.)

If we aren't there, Disney can shut down complete villas for OKW or whole floors at BWV.

[DeeCee735]

I'm one of the few people who don't think there's going to be a major down turn at disney (probably the sociologist in me)

-Generally in bad times, people turn to "vices" to escape. that's why Vegas, AC, movies, theme parks tend to do well compared to other industries in tough times. People need to escape.
-Disney is still a good "bang for your buck". Research any other vacations lately? I live on the east coast, let me tell you a week at one of the Jersey or Md shore beaches can easily set you back a couple of grand. $ for $ disney is still competitive. Throw in the ddp or free dining and for a vacation it's not so bad.
-Disney does an excellent job marketing how affordable it can be. Throw in AAA or a code discount and a family of 4 can do disney pretty darn cheap.
-Working folks tend to have a do or die attitude (or maybe it's just me. LOL) barring total job loss, I'm going to do a vacation. It may not be big but generally I will eat ramien noodles for months, cut back as much as humanly possible before I give up a vacation. Lastly regardless to what we think about it, people have and will charge vacations. I've done it before and while not the smartest move, I'm not going to be a hypocrite and throw stones at others who do.
I think there's going to be a slight slow down but I wouldn't count on getting into the GF for $89.00 bucks just yet.

I just priced out our January trip and I was SHOCKED:scared1: to find that I need to budget over $3500 for 5 nights - this is with park tickets for my adult kids and the basic DDP, cab fares on the couple of occasions we won't use buses, tip $$, a festive dinner to celebrate a special occasion at Yachtsman Steakhouse (not using the DDP for that, using AP DDE), a supermarket visit for a few items, and RT car service for the airport, also just a couple hundred for spending money. Add in the airfare and we're up around $4500:scared1: I'm thinking this is alot for 5 people 5 days.....I think we'll curtail our visits and go less often after the two trips I've got booked.

[MARY-IN-OH]

So are you going to share with us, which two days should we all plan to go? :rotfl: :rotfl:

the number is park specific, so us dis veterans can usually figure them out pretty closely. As in avoiding EMH parks, watching for when special events are taking place like the Christmas or Halloween party or Star Wars weekends, etc. But to answer your question, you should go to DHS on Tues 12/16/08, and you should go to MK or DHS on Wed. 12/17/08. ;)
-mary

[disneynutz]

I just priced out our January trip and I was SHOCKED:scared1: to find that I need to budget over $3500 for 5 nights - this is with park tickets for my adult kids and the basic DDP, cab fares on the couple of occasions we won't use buses, tip $$, a festive dinner to celebrate a special occasion at Yachtsman Steakhouse (not using the DDP for that, using AP DDE), a supermarket visit for a few items, and RT car service for the airport, also just a couple hundred for spending money. Add in the airfare and we're up around $4500:scared1: I'm thinking this is alot for 5 people 5 days.....I think we'll curtail our visits and go less often after the two trips I've got booked.

Buy 10 day no expiration tickets at a discounter and use them for two trips. Use DME and cut out the car service. Rent a car for one day to do your grocery shopping. Delete DDP and use TIW and cook in the villa.

Disney is getting ready for the slow down. Extended AP room discounts, bounce back cruise offerings, extended free dining.

It would be nice if DVC would offer some discounts for current members but I doubt it. Once you buy, they know that they have you.

I expect to see additional sales incentives as the market slows and they miss their projections.

[DanenRox]

well when you consider that this year 1,2 or 3 were not on the charts - they are definitely saying less people will be there.

they had very few 4's this year.



At the risk of sounding argumentative, I beg to differ. I have referred to crowd predictors pretty regularly when planning our trips and 3's were not hard to come by in off-seasons. It was fairly easy to put together of week of 3,4,5's if one could travel in Sept/Jan and didn't mind fluctuating weather patterns. For example, as recently as this past September crowd predictions were lower than what they're estimating for next September. I'm puzzled. :3dglasses

[eporter66]

Disney for a lot of folks is a pre-paid vacation. Arrangements were made months ago so they will still attend. Next year is when you will really see a slow down for cash Guests.

DVC will not be hit as hard on reservations but you will continue seeing people selling their contracts at low prices just to get rid of them.


I would have to agree with both thoughts here. We just got back from WDW (10/18-10/24) and it was the most crowded we have ever seen October. But, as mentioned, these vacations were planned many months (even a year or more) in advance. October was always a fairly slow time when we had visited previously.

People are going to take the vacations they already paid for. I would imagine that attendance will sink over the coming months.

[kimberh]

We had friends go in Oct, she said they had one 20 min line. I think that is a pretty slow crowd. The last time we went in Oct, I was shocked at how crowded it was. With the discounts that I am seeing come out now, I think Disney is getting ready. I feel that we will wait and take advantage of one of them. We leave Sat for Europe. This trip has been planned for months, way before the economy turned. I sure would not have planned it now. Since it was already paid for, we are taking it. I think the same thing is happening for Disney, 2009 will tell the tale.

[hakepb]

Although some of the slow-dowm may be offset by locals, that instead of taking a ski-trip, stay close and go to WDW.

[Brian Noble]

I have referred to crowd predictors pretty regularly when planning our trips and 3's were not hard to come by in off-seasons.

There has been year-over-year growth, but it's been modest---in the single percentages per year. But, Len changed the way he rated crowds 2-3 years ago; you can't compare crowd calendar numbers from before and after, because the formulas are completely different, and the numbers mean different things.

For reference, here are the resort-wide attendance figures from the last several years for all four parks. These are compiled from a report that was originally done by a publication called Amusement Business Today. That publication is defunct, but the Themed Entertainment Assn. together with Economics Research Associates have carried the torch since then. A fan site carries the summaries.

http://www.coastergrotto.com/theme-park-attendance.jsp

2003: 37.7 Million guests
2004: 40.7M, 8% growth
2005: 42.9M, 5.4%
2006: 45M, 4.8%
2007: 46.9M, 4.2%

These are mostly unique guest-days. Disney counts parkhoppers as only one for that day (attributed to the first park visited). But, I suspect that guests attending hard-ticket events plus regular park operating hours count as 2. So, to the extent to which the parties have grown (and they have) the numbers above probably over-estimate the daily gate.

Disney has also gotten very good at marketing periods when the kids are in school to other groups, reducing seasonal differences. The halloween and christmas parties have been very successful in attracting guests to previously slow times, as has Food & Wine. Flower & Garden hasn't done quite as well. Of course, some of that is cannibalized from summer, but some is new travel as well.

[DanenRox]

Interesting Mr Noble, thank you.

[Brian Noble]

I also think there is a lot of merit to the idea that because vacations are planned at least a month or so in advance, any economy-induced drop off hasn't quite hit yet.

I don't think the gas price spike over the summer made a big difference to most people. After all, even someone driving a full day to get to WDW is driving only about 1,000 miles round trip. Figure 20mpg, and an extra $2/gal adds only $100 to a trip---not a deal breaker, though there was a lot of pessimism.

The stock market collapse didn't really start until late September, and didn't feel "real" to a lot of people until a week or two after that. That's been a much bigger deal psychologically, and I don't think it's worked it's way through leisure travel just yet.

[gray52]

I think also that you have to factor in the parks themselves. Most of us saw a drop off in the other parks when Animal Kingdom opened. A new park nobody had seen yet. Now that thrill is gone, and coupled with more and more people going to WDW, the parks are more crowded.
We used to go every January or February and/or October... after last years October trip, we'll never return during that month. It wasn't July crowds or Christmas week crowds, but it was tight.

1992 – Off Site
1995 – Dixie Landings (Honeymoon)
1997 – Off site
2000 – Villas at Disney Institute
2001 - Swan
2002 – CSR
2003 – Off site
2006 – POFQ
2007 – CBR
2008 – Disneyland (Hotel Del Coronado)
2009 – OKW/POFQ

[PSU]

Funny, guess it depends on perspective....my DH and I are considering DVC solely because we have visited in Oct the past two years and fell in love with the F&W festival....Crowds at the park were there, but we mixed it up with food and golf...The weather was great- not too hot and warm enough to really enjoy a swim after being out for a few hours....

[Brian Noble]

I found some more annual totals:
http://www.scottware.com.au/theme/feature/atend_disparks.htm

Interestingly, Animal Kingdom had a surprisingly small cannibalism impact. In 1997, before AK opened:

MK: 17M
EP: 10.1M
DS: 10.4M
Total: 37.5

in 1999, the first full year of AK's operation:

MK: 15.2
EP: 10.1
DS: 8.7
AK: 8.6

The non-AK total 34M (3.5M drop--about 10%) was more than made up with AK's 8.6M guests. The Resort-wide total that year was 42.6M.

9/11 had a much bigger impact on attendance.

2000: 43.2M
2001: 39.7M (-3.5%)
2002: 37.6M (-5.3%)

So, resort-wide attendance was back to 1997 levels, but with one extra gate to spread the guests through!

[OneMoreTry]

Disney will provide perks to DVC members if they begin to see a drop-off in our on-site spending. Yes, they know we are going to stay there on a regular basis. But Disney does not really make any money off our being there. Just like they make no money from the millions of locals. UNLESS we/they choose to go to WDW and spend.

Just like the locals, we are a "captive" audience. We are already there, so they don't need to entice us to make the trip or spend lots on lodging. And they know our savings on lodging gives us extra to spend on food, wine and merchandise.

So if they want to increase their revenue stream and they calculate that offering locals or DVCers a special deal will generate increased profit, they will conisder doing that.

IMHO

[Sully]

I tried making ADR for Feb. 14, 2009, Valentines Day at The California Grill today and nothing is available until late in the evening. Sounds like the economy is doing just fine.:confused3

[gracelrm]

This doesn't directly relate to future attendance and the economy, but during my trip earlier in October, I sure did notice a large number of people wearing "1st Visit" buttons. I mentioned it to my DH and he said he had noticed that as well and the economy & high gas/airline prices didn't appear to be keeping many new people at home. Our family also traveled out west in June 08 and the Natl. Parks that we visited were certainly staying pretty crowded. I know in our own circumstances - we had planned a 3-week trip out west and I was concerned that we needed to cut it short or not go at all due to the economy. DH's opinion was that things might get much worse in years to come - so we better go while we can. Maybe many people have that same idea - it's bad now, but it might be worse down the road - so lets go while it's possible.

Just a thought!

[mikeandkarla]

So I've re-up'd our subscription to another Disney site...this one predicts crowd levels for the coming year (among other things). In the next 12 mos, there are TWO DAYS they've predicted crowds at a "3"...(on a scale 1-10 with 10 = longer waits at major attractions). The remainder of the year, including brisk January to Hurricane-laden September, are 4's and higher! Really? Are they really predicting more crowds, higher attendance in the coming year...in this economy? Really?

I also have a subscription to that website. the crowd ranking numbers I think your looking at are a history of attendance for that particular day, not necessarily a prediction at the upcoming year with the state of the economy being a factor.

[eliza61]

I just priced out our January trip and I was SHOCKED:scared1: to find that I need to budget over $3500 for 5 nights - this is with park tickets for my adult kids and the basic DDP, cab fares on the couple of occasions we won't use buses, tip $$, a festive dinner to celebrate a special occasion at Yachtsman Steakhouse (not using the DDP for that, using AP DDE), a supermarket visit for a few items, and RT car service for the airport, also just a couple hundred for spending money. Add in the airfare and we're up around $4500:scared1: I'm thinking this is alot for 5 people 5 days.....I think we'll curtail our visits and go less often after the two trips I've got booked.

Is January high season (I know it is for the Carribean, you know everyone wanted to escape the cold) That may account for the price. But thruthfully Diane, $3500 dollars breaks down to less than $150 per person, per day. That's not outrageous for meals & tickets. Not sure you could do NYC or Washington DC on 150/day including meals. I know that does absolutely nothing for the sticker shock. :scared1:

[jakenjess]

Disney will provide perks to DVC members if they begin to see a drop-off in our on-site spending. Yes, they know we are going to stay there on a regular basis. But Disney does not really make any money off our being there. Just like they make no money from the millions of locals. UNLESS we/they choose to go to WDW and spend.

Just like the locals, we are a "captive" audience. We are already there, so they don't need to entice us to make the trip or spend lots on lodging. And they know our savings on lodging gives us extra to spend on food, wine and merchandise.

So if they want to increase their revenue stream and they calculate that offering locals or DVCers a special deal will generate increased profit, they will conisder doing that.

IMHO


I remember our guide telling us this when we bought in, that, although of course they're making money off us buying into DVC, it's really all the money that we spend while we're there on food, park tickets, etc., etc., where they make even more. It makes sense. It will be interesting to see what happens with crowd levels. We're going in April, our first time over a school vacation (though it's not Easter week like a lot of places, it's the week after). I'm hoping it's not TOO crazy!

[bonrea]

I'm one of the few people who don't think there's going to be a major down turn at disney (probably the sociologist in me)


-Generally in bad times, people turn to "vices" to escape. that's why Vegas, AC, movies, theme parks tend to do well compared to other industries in tough times. People need to escape.
-Disney is still a good "bang for your buck". Research any other vacations lately? I live on the east coast, let me tell you a week at one of the Jersey or Md shore beaches can easily set you back a couple of grand. $ for $ disney is still competitive. Throw in the ddp or free dining and for a vacation it's not so bad.
-Disney does an excellent job marketing how affordable it can be. Throw in AAA or a code discount and a family of 4 can do disney pretty darn cheap.
-Working folks tend to have a do or die attitude (or maybe it's just me. LOL) barring total job loss, I'm going to do a vacation. It may not be big but generally I will eat ramien noodles for months, cut back as much as humanly possible before I give up a vacation. Lastly regardless to what we think about it, people have and will charge vacations. I've done it before and while not the smartest move, I'm not going to be a hypocrite and throw stones at others who do.


I think there's going to be a slight slow down but I wouldn't count on getting into the GF for $89.00 bucks just yet.

I have to agree on this... People always turn to entertainment when they feel bad about things. Check out this link to see what Wall Street is saying. It is a good time to go and to buy Disney stock.

http://wdwnewsletter.com/2008/10/22/analysts-fear-park-slowdown-at-walt-disney-co/

:banana: Go Disney Go!!! :cheer2:

[Brian Noble]

I remember our guide telling us this when we bought in, that, although of course they're making money off us buying into DVC, it's really all the money that we spend while we're there on food, park tickets, etc., etc., where they make even more.
There is certainly something to this. Since 9/11 Disney has not started construction on a single cash-rental resort room. Not one. In fact, they've eliminated some---the mothballing of the 2nd half of Pop, consolidation of rooms into suites at ASMu, the conversion of 5th and 6th floors at AKL to AKV, and the demolition of the north wing at CR. Every resort development dollar spent since that time has gone to building DVC.

Clearly, they've decided that getting people to pre-pay---and thus commit---to Disney vacations long-term is in their best interests. Because DVCers feel like they've already paid to stay there, they're much more likely to come even in down times. True, some might just come and hang out in their resort, cook meals, and swim in the pools, but even in tough economic times, I don't think the fraction doing that will be large.

[ead79]

I tend to agree with the idea that WDW will begin to see the slowdown in early 2009 (or maybe in the 2nd quarter of '09). I think that if folks had already reserved and partially paid for a WDW trip, they are likely to still take it.

I do think the economy will affect attendance at WDW, but I don't think it's going to be a ghost town or anything near that type of drop off. I do think we'll see more targeted discounts (like free dining, discount codes, etc.) to convince people to go.

I actually think that Disney's latest marketing campaign (What Will You Celebrate?) is brilliant for these economic times. It enables Disney to appeal to a person's sense of a need to treat themselves despite shaky economic times, and I think it will resonate with a lot of potential guests.

Of course, if the economy gets too ugly, then Disney may really be in for some lean times.

[Mississippian]

I'm one of the few people who don't think there's going to be a major down turn at disney (probably the sociologist in me)


-Generally in bad times, people turn to "vices" to escape. that's why Vegas, AC, movies, theme parks tend to do well compared to other industries in tough times. People need to escape.
-Disney is still a good "bang for your buck". Research any other vacations lately? I live on the east coast, let me tell you a week at one of the Jersey or Md shore beaches can easily set you back a couple of grand. $ for $ disney is still competitive. Throw in the ddp or free dining and for a vacation it's not so bad.
-Disney does an excellent job marketing how affordable it can be. Throw in AAA or a code discount and a family of 4 can do disney pretty darn cheap.
-Working folks tend to have a do or die attitude (or maybe it's just me. LOL) barring total job loss, I'm going to do a vacation. It may not be big but generally I will eat ramien noodles for months, cut back as much as humanly possible before I give up a vacation. Lastly regardless to what we think about it, people have and will charge vacations. I've done it before and while not the smartest move, I'm not going to be a hypocrite and throw stones at others who do.


I think there's going to be a slight slow down but I wouldn't count on getting into the GF for $89.00 bucks just yet.

My wife and I took the children to Europe this past spring break using airline miles and a number of free hotel nights. The cost of the trip nevertheless about broke us.

I thought about booking a trip to Europe this coming spring for just my wife and me, again using airline miles. Instead we're using DVC points to stay three nights at WDW and three nights at Vero. We might add a fourth WDW night at a value resort at the start of our trip. We're doing this to save money.

If money is tight, we'll do a lot of cooking in our room. So our major cost will be tickets and transportation.

I should add, though, that there have been no "quick trips" to WDW for a while. We're watching our money. And I'm willing to bet others are doing the same. So even though we are going, and many other people are going, I do think there will be a drop-off in the number of guests.

[crisi]

Clearly, they've decided that getting people to pre-pay---and thus commit---to Disney vacations long-term is in their best interests. Because DVCers feel like they've already paid to stay there, they're much more likely to come even in down times. True, some might just come and hang out in their resort, cook meals, and swim in the pools, but even in tough economic times, I don't think the fraction doing that will be large.

And if that number is significant, Disney can cope via reduced hours in the parks, reduced events (i.e. Fantasmic isn't running nightly), reduced restaurant hours and staffing, etc. They know very well how to make certain attractions "seasonal," how to run a parade only three times a week, how to remove and add characters from a meal, and only take reservations for a half full restaurant because you don't want to have a full staff.

[CaptHomer]

As mikeandkarla stated it is based on historical averages not on any predictions.

I think it will be a year or so before the crowds drop because people have already paid for their trips. Might not see any change if the economy picks up in the next 6 months or so.

[snowbunny]

I tried making ADR for Feb. 14, 2009, Valentines Day at The California Grill today and nothing is available until late in the evening. Sounds like the economy is doing just fine.

That's largely people who already have plane tickets paid for and aren't going to cancel at this point. The real test will be how bookings look for next summer and beyond.

There was a poster on another thread who said as noted above that Fantasmic is being cut back to 2 days per week starting in January. That's just one example of how WDW can pull back on expenses if they see a slowdown in attendance. The recent "free on your birthday" innovation is of course simply an attendance booster that they saw no need to offer in the past.

[Mouseaholic!!!]

DH and I use unscientific ways to determine how busy WDW or DL will be.....castmember rates. 2008 has been a very good year for us.

We just spent a few days at DL for DOUBLE the normal castmember rate. We stayed at the Grand Cali and for 4 of our 5 nights, no lights were on in the rooms at night across the Briza courtyard from us. DL was empty - everything was a walk-on - even the biggies!

In 29 days we will be staying at a DVC 1 BR for 65% off the normal rate - and not OKW or SSR. We have NEVER seen castmember rates for more than a 50% discount.

Disney will not give castmember discounts AT ALL if the rooms are nearly sold out so what does this tell you?


Next - David Westin at ABC News told all staff that there would be another round of belt-tightening......after 18 months of layoffs already. Heck, they aren't even buying newspapers for the newsroom!

All Divisions of Disney have been told to expect layoffs soon - and that is after the Iger cost cutting of the last few years.

We have all watched are beloved WDW and DL loose a little of it's shine as maintenance budgets were cut and staffing cutback.

These are not happy times inside the Disney world. The only good thing I can say is they have gold-standard health care --- for all the employees still working under tremendous stress.

65% discounts in 2008 - when you all say it was so busy. Heck --- in 2009 they might just PAY US to stay there the way things are going!!!!!

WOO HOO for 30-year castmember rates!!!!!:banana: :banana:


Parks and Resorts is a cost center with a very high profit. Lower attendance, lower profit. Lower profit = layoffs.

[twinklebug]

Whether or not people are visiting the resorts will be directly related to how secure they feel in their jobs. If companies are still cutting back, attendance will go down no doubt. If unemployment is up, attendance is down. It's not that we couldn't all use a disney break in stressful times, but doing so might up the stress in other ways.

My bet - next summer will have lower attendance than usual and we should see some big enticements on Disney's park to fill the rooms. June/July... 5s & 6s sounds right - typically those are busy months and while attendance will suffer right now people going have it in their head that they WILL go no matter what it takes. It will be at this time next year we'll see the big difference... people don't usually plan more than a year in advance and those who'd be planning for next October now are currently saying - I wonder how stable my job is really.

This said, to bring it around to the forum we're in... DVC is an exception to the rule with the exclusion that those who've lost their jobs may turn to selling their DVC contracts for some cash on hand. I'm betting DVC attendance will stay the same despite the cost of travel and passes. I'm happy I've bought in so I can continue to take trips and pray my job stays secure.

[hakepb]

Unfortunatley deeply discounted DVC room stays are a very bad thing for DVC members that may want to eventually try any "trade out" options. The less cash CRO gets for our rooms, the more points trade-outs will cost the next year :(

[Brian Noble]

That's largely people who already have plane tickets paid for and aren't going to cancel at this point.
Not to mention the local APers who want to go out to dinner on V-day.

[spiceycat]

At the risk of sounding argumentative, I beg to differ. I have referred to crowd predictors pretty regularly when planning our trips and 3's were not hard to come by in off-seasons. It was fairly easy to put together of week of 3,4,5's if one could travel in Sept/Jan and didn't mind fluctuating weather patterns. For example, as recently as this past September crowd predictions were lower than what they're estimating for next September. I'm puzzled. :3dglasses

I went in Sept - had to change from the first week to the second week because of family.

both of those weeks had no 3's - believe me I looked at his charts the 30 days before that I can.

now 4 and 5's yes - but didn't see any 3's from sept 1 - 18, 2008.

the week after the food/wine festavial starts and it gets crowded for that

so the only week you could be talking about is sept 20-27 - will admit did not even look at that week.

liked it better when he was doing the crowds - not the times for the rides.
now yes he can do better with times for the rides - because they have to be way off for that not to work.

guess it is just too hard to predict what the spring break crowds might be doing.

[spiceycat]

I have always gone on Disney hours.

check it often - if they cut back then they are expecting less people -if they increase the hours they are expecting more.

this is generally done about 2 weeks before.

[msdis]

With all the new pass types the one thing we are waiting for is the annual pass Epcot after 4 to be open to all guests and/or DVC guests. We have not bought any passes for 3 years. We used to buy AP's (for 10 years) but we no longer have that desire; been there, done that to death. We would prefer a pass that would allow us a nice little evening walk, a place we can get a bite to eat, and a place we can shop a little. We like to listen to Off Kilter and British Invasion and watch the fire works. We seldom will stand in line for the rides and paying 800 for 2 annual passes is not in the "make sense" budget for us any more but we would pay for the Epcot after 4 pass. I don't understand why they open it to FL residents only. This is another missed opportunity for Disney in my mind. They should be giving every possible sales opportunity they can. People want free stuff but we are willing to pay for something we can't have due to a restriction. We will be there in another week and we will still have a terrific time just the same but we would really like to visit just Epcot but even the one day pass is just not worth it. For a once a year 5 night trip Disney would still make way more money off us than a local who could visit much more often. :sad1:

[snowbunny]

we would pay for the Epcot after 4 pass. I don't understand why they open it to FL residents only.

I just booked a room for a summer weekend at CSR for a convention and confirmation included a link to a nice website that offers discounted after-2 pm and after-4pm park passes specifically for convention attendees.

What a great idea! At DVC we hardly ever do full park days either and so often don't buy any park passes. A limited-hours ticket for restaurants would be useful.

[Entropy]

I also think there is a lot of merit to the idea that because vacations are planned at least a month or so in advance, any economy-induced drop off hasn't quite hit yet.

I don't think the gas price spike over the summer made a big difference to most people. After all, even someone driving a full day to get to WDW is driving only about 1,000 miles round trip. Figure 20mpg, and an extra $2/gal adds only $100 to a trip---not a deal breaker, though there was a lot of pessimism.

The stock market collapse didn't really start until late September, and didn't feel "real" to a lot of people until a week or two after that. That's been a much bigger deal psychologically, and I don't think it's worked it's way through leisure travel just yet.

I'm not sure that the stock market drop will be real to many people at all.
In my case, I look at my 401-K balance and my various mutual funds and they are down but that's just a piece of paper that represents what I will have at retirement more than 20 years from now. My vacations are paid for from the paychecks that I get now and they haven't changed. In fact, I'm in construction management and we have tons of work scheduled for the next two years.

[tinkerbell 766]

Forgive me for being so selfish, and perhaps even mean, but I for one am looking forward to perhaps lower park populations for the 2 perhaps 3 trips we have planned for next calendar year. I will not miss some of the european people and their chants and flags at all. The yelling and chanting often scared my youngest, and was uncalled for imo.

Lower crowds in '09.. sounds great :)

Thanks for that!!!
Us Europeans help your economy with our trips to USA!
In my experience it is the South Americans who are into the flag waving and chanting.
I am sure WDW would miss us Europeans and our money even if you clearly would not.

[Inkmahm]

Thanks for that!!!
Us Europeans help your economy with our trips to USA!
In my experience it is the South Americans who are into the flag waving and chanting.
I am sure WDW would miss us Europeans and our money even if you clearly would not.

Where are you people seeing allthis flag waving and chanting? I've never seen that anywhere at WDW. The worst I've seen is cheerleaders there for their competition who can't seem to stop cheering even in the ride lines.

[tinkerbell 766]

I was refering to the Brazilian teenage tour groups who seem to chant all the time. The flag waving was more sporadic. It didn't really bother me though. Just high spirits I guess!!!

[DonnaL]

Spicey.......we were there 9/21 thru 9/26.....walked on just about everything every day.......the longest line was probably at AK's EE and that was maybe 10-15 minutes. It was DH, DGS age 7, and myself this trip and we rode everything multiple times in a row simply because there was no waiting. Even Soarin was walk on........haven't ever seen that!!! DH and Gavin rode Space Mountain five times in a row!!! It was a great trip..........

[OneMoreTry]

I'm not sure that the stock market drop will be real to many people at all.
In my case, I look at my 401-K balance and my various mutual funds and they are down but that's just a piece of paper that represents what I will have at retirement more than 20 years from now. My vacations are paid for from the paychecks that I get now and they haven't changed. In fact, I'm in construction management and we have tons of work scheduled for the next two years.

The stock market drop won't hit main street until next year. If the predicted increase in unemployement from 6% to 8% happens then lots of people will feel the effect and vacations will be cancelled and DVC contracts wil be sold.

[Anal Annie]

I'm not sure that the stock market drop will be real to many people at all.
In my case, I look at my 401-K balance and my various mutual funds and they are down but that's just a piece of paper that represents what I will have at retirement more than 20 years from now. My vacations are paid for from the paychecks that I get now and they haven't changed. In fact, I'm in construction management and we have tons of work scheduled for the next two years.

You must be referring to commercial not residential construction?! :confused: Or are things in CA that much better than on the East coast? :confused3 My DH works for a small Mom & Pop local lumber yard that is HIGHLY dependent on local construction of both varieties....business is scary down this past year and I have already been laid off from my job at an office furniture dealership...

We are still planning to go mid-August next summer simply because our accomodations are covered. But we still have to figure out how to buy our AP's and flights....I will probably try to squirrel away a portion of our tax refund. I am hoping the price of gas will remain steady for awhile and am hoping for big drops in airfare come late winter / early spring when the discount airlines release their summer schedules. We have not booked anything yet so our plans are subject to change if things don't turn around in a few months. We COULD also use miles that we have accrued on a miles credit card...but I was trying to save those for a more expensive trip. But that IS an option we have. Using miles for next summer would only leave us with having to come up with AP money & some spending money.

I think park attendance for 2009 remains to be seen and I think a lot of people will be like us and will wait a little longer than normal to plan anything for sure. For now, I am saying we're going. But I have to be realistic. The mortgage comes first...

[Anal Annie]

Where are you people seeing allthis flag waving and chanting? I've never seen that anywhere at WDW. The worst I've seen is cheerleaders there for their competition who can't seem to stop cheering even in the ride lines.

OMG! The Brazilian Tour Groups!! You have been blessed if you've never encountered them on any of your trips!! We ran into them on both of our last 2 trips...last January and July!! They're loud, chanting, flag waving obnoxious groups and they take all the Fast Passes in one shot and then come back in a large group and gunk up the lines. The Fast Pass system was not designed to have groups of 50-75 show up all at once. We were already in the stand-by line for the new Toy Story ride last July when a large group of them came back with their Fast Passes. They literally doubled our wait time by an hour!!! They can be very frustrating.

[Brian Noble]

I'm not sure that the stock market drop will be real to many people at all.
I agree 100%. But a lot of people think it is real---and if enough of them do, it will put a damper on discretionary spending.