Update on BLT and THV!

[KyleRayner]

I saw the following posted on another forum and thought I would share.

Hopping along with Deep Croaker:

Just off the internet with the one, the only DEEP CROAKER

DC left his lillypad just long enough to give some (minor) updates.

1) GBLAST123 is correct BLT sales have been pushed back. Training has not yet occured as the very big wigs are in 'urgent steering meetings' CM's have been told, vacations now, none after Mid July.

2) CMs discount for DVC purchases expire completely June 30, 2008. No new employee discount has been announced, this is a first.

3) DEEP CROAKER believs sales will be delayed 3-6 weeks, look for BLT sales to begin by August 15.

4) DC Look for a *MINIMUM* $10.00 per point raise (like they did with BCV) for BLT, I expect to see points at $120-$125 for BLT.

5) Leisure bookings are down at all WDW resorts, but convention travel is up. Even with that, DC expects BLT to be DVC only with the other Garden Wing becoming another tower in the near future. He can't guess if it will be DVC, mixed use or Convention Suites only.

6) The original Maximum Point Allowcation Chart has been deemed too generous..... Watch for a new higher chart to post *BEFORE* DVC BLT sales are announced. It seemed too good to be true......

7) No word on THV, the Hotels Unit is vigorously fighting for control of these units....

8) Eight new sales (MS-GUIDES) have been hired and are finalizing training (3-4) weeks. This is a larger than normal pre-sales hiring, and several are being assigned to phone sales (has not occurred before). DC reads 'this' as something major comming down the sales avenue in next 3-6 weeks..... BLT anyone?

So the guessing and waiting continues.

[Longhairbear]

.
4) DC Look for a *MINIMUM* $10.00 per point raise (like they did with BCV) for BLT, I expect to see points at $120-$125 for BLT.

..
The CA DVC model has been open to the public for two days, according to sources. It wouldn't surprise me if the GCV are the first villas to be pricey, making way for BLT, and HI.

[culli]

Sounds like resale and take a chance at 7 month window. $120/pt or more:rotfl: You can get SSR for $80ish or less. $40/pt spread :rotfl2:
I know many are waiting in line for BLT but $40/pt is a pretty big price to pay for the 11 month window.

DVC better get active with their ROFR.

[DVCSAMNH]

Sounds like resale and take a chance at 7 month window. $120/pt or more:rotfl: You can get SSR for $80ish or less. $40/pt spread :rotfl2:
I know many are waiting in line for BLT but $40/pt is a pretty big price to pay for the 11 month window.

DVC better get active with their ROFR.


I'm with you, Culli. I'm just as happy with a room at SSR or on the Boardwalk. I don't see any reason to throw my money at Disney, especially in this environment. It's more points at SSR for me until the deals start to happen at BLT.

[culli]

I'm with you, Culli. I'm just as happy with a room at SSR or on the Boardwalk. I don't see any reason to throw my money at Disney, especially in this environment. It's more points at SSR for me until the deals start to happen at BLT.

:tongue: BOARDWALK :tongue: BOARDWALK:tongue:

I find BWV much more appealing than MK villas/area, hopefully prices will continue to drop :teacher:, I would love to add on to BWV just gotta watch my TS portfolio as a whole :surfweb:

Need more vacation time at work.....keep looking for the retired posting on our job bulletin board and don't see it......heck I'm even willing to get retrained and go back to school - for some reason my employer doesn't see it that way:eek:

[mrdiscranky]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the same super-secret inside-knowledge-we-can-trust source who told the world BLT sales would start July 1st, with notices going out to members a week before that??

Don't believe what you read on the internet folks.

[DisFlan]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the same super-secret inside-knowledge-we-can-trust source who told the world BLT sales would start July 1st, with notices going out to members a week before that??

Don't believe what you read on the internet folks.

He's probably right that resort bookings are down.

We'll stick with our much loved BWV. I'm sure the BLT will be lovely, but $120 pp (if he's right) is a little steep just to own near the MK.

DisFlan

[CarolA]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the same super-secret inside-knowledge-we-can-trust source who told the world BLT sales would start July 1st, with notices going out to members a week before that??

Don't believe what you read on the internet folks.

This souce has consistenly been good. I tend to trust him more then most, plus he does come back with changes (see the OP)

[mrdiscranky]

He's probably right that resort bookings are down. He's probably right about a bunch of things. But is he right because he has access to secret information, or is he just guessing like the rest of us?

So far, one of his predictions is verifiable, and it ain't true.

[DVCJones]

Count me in as one who WAS standing in line for an add-on at BLT. However, at $120-$125 a point,:scared1: my SSR points seem like a better option. I think I will buy more SSR.

For me, I was only looking to buy about 80 points and planned on staying at BLT every 2- 3 years or so. ( I like to skip around). I was going to bank BLT points for that and use SSR points to skip around. However, I think I will just get more SSR or AKV points and take my chances on BLT.

Besides, we had an awesome stay at SSR in April. I am a HUGE fan of SSR! Combine that with the mantra- "as long as I am at WDW I am happy" They can have BLT at that price.

IF I got lucky and was able to get BLT at 7mo. I will stay there for much less $$$ than those who bought there.

[mnra]

as an owner at okw at 50 dollars a point and boardwalk at 80 per point there is no way I would pay 125 for blt. could buy about 1 and half times the points for the same dollars at the other resorts.

[CarolA]

He's probably right about a bunch of things. But is he right because he has access to secret information, or is he just guessing like the rest of us?

So far, one of his predictions is verifiable, and it ain't true.

I have talked with him. He gets what he posts from someone inside DVC.

That does not always mean he is right. Disney as you may have noticed changes things. (Just try booking Eagle Pines:lmao: )

[Greg K.]

All those poor unfortunate souls who bought into DVC in the early '90s, at $51 a point, must be :lmao: .

;)

[GoofItUp]

All those poor unfortunate souls who bought into DVC in the early '90s, at $51 a point, must be :lmao: .

;)

I know! They're laughing at ME!!! :sad2:

[Brian Noble]

Nothing at Disney is written in stone until it really happens.

I would not be surprised by rethinking either point charts or prices, right up to the last minute. My sense for the leisure market is that it is dropping overall, but the high-end stuff is just as popular as it ever was---those folks don't really care if gas is $3 or $5 or $7, because it's not a big chunk of their income either way.

And, don't kid yourself: DVC is not a mass market offering.

[JimMIA]

4) DC Look for a *MINIMUM* $10.00 per point raise (like they did with BCV) for BLT, I expect to see points at $120-$125 for BLT.I've been saying for a long time that I expected BLT to be at least $110-115, and that was before the most recent round of price increases.

My guess is that we'll see a general price increase again when SSR finishes selling out, and then BLT announced at $10 or so above what they're charging for AKV. There is plenty of differentiation over AKV to justify $10 or a little more. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see $120-125 for BLT. Maybe not right at first -- they might do an introductory offer -- but certainly not too far down the road. We won't be buying BLT, but a LOT of people will.

The other two issues, of course, are points-per-night cost and maintenance fees. Those could both be substantially higher than other resorts because of the monorail.

[mrdiscranky]

I have talked with him. He gets what he posts from someone inside DVC. The fact that they are inside DVC doesn't necessarily mean they know anything more than we do. I have a hard time believing that Disney is being incredibly tight lipped, but one of the few people who knows anything is willing to share it with some guy he knows will publish it on the internet.

I think if you read through the "information" posted at the top of this thread, you'll see the inside source is guessing just like the rest of us.

[TenThousandVolts]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the same super-secret inside-knowledge-we-can-trust source who told the world BLT sales would start July 1st, with notices going out to members a week before that??

Don't believe what you read on the internet folks.

Yes, it is- but this source is the best we got- he gave us AKV point charts long before DVC released them as well as many other spot on (or very close) predictions in the past.

[drakethib]

Who is Deep Croaker?

[chatchdvc]

Who is Deep Croaker?

If we told you, we'd have to....:rolleyes1

[kimberh]

BLT is too rich for my blood. I guess I'll wait for the 7 month window on this one. :goodvibes

[drakethib]

If we told you, we'd have to....:rolleyes1

Wait.

Deep Croaker.

Deep Throat (Nixon, not porn...you pervs for thinking that).:lmao:

I think I may be putting 2 and 2 together.

What a dummy I am sometimes. (Maybe still)

[chatchdvc]

:thumbsup2

[CarolA]

The fact that they are inside DVC doesn't necessarily mean they know anything more than we do. I have a hard time believing that Disney is being incredibly tight lipped, but one of the few people who knows anything is willing to share it with some guy he knows will publish it on the internet.

I think if you read through the "information" posted at the top of this thread, you'll see the inside source is guessing just like the rest of us.

I am sticking with this source. He's right a LOT more then anyone else has ever been on here.

(And if you knew how MANY points this guy has you might realize one reason they put up with this.. Some guide has made a fortune LOL!)

[robind]

6) The original Maximum Point Allowcation Chart has been deemed too generous..... Watch for a new higher chart to post *BEFORE* DVC BLT sales are announced. It seemed too good to be true......


Hope this isn't too dumb a question but what is a Maximum Point Allocation Chart?

[MrDVC]

Don't believe what you read on the internet folks.

So, we can assume that any previous and future posts of yours are not to be believed?

Deep Croaker has been spot on in the past. IMO Deep Croaker is one of the higher ups in DVC management, or possibly an administrative assistant to one. The info is too good and accurate to not be inside information.

[cidhw95]

whats THV

[itsreally4mommy]

WOW! Such a steep price per point hike PLUS higher point requirements is pretty brave on Disney's part w/everyone nervous over the economy.

Call me crazy, but if monorail is such a big deal could it be cheaper in the end to occasionally use your points on a regular room at the current monorail resorts?

[noname70]

7 month window is looking pretty good right now.......

[MrDVC]

whats THV

Tree House Villas

[WebmasterDoc]

Regarding the comment about the predicted price increase - if it truly is similar to the increase when BCV sales began it may be far lower than $10 per point.

In June, 2001, the price per point for DVC (VWL was selling at that time) was $75.

BCV sales began on February 3, 2002 - still at $75 per point (no increase at all when BCV sales began). MS began accepting BVC reservations for owners in March, 2002. (DVC "stopped" VWL sales on February 2, 2002 - but continued to sell available points.)

In June, 2002 the price was raised to $80 per point and another price increase came 6 months later - to $84 per point. This increase was announced in October, 2002 and began in December.

The next increase came in August, 2003 - after BCV had already sold out and SSR sales began at $89 per point.

BCV saw a total price increase of $9 per point over the life of it's active sales from March, 2002 until August, 2003 but there was no increase at all when sales began.

The largest past single increase has been $6 per point. On August 4, 2003 the price was raised (by $5) to $89 when sales began at SSR. SSR opened in May, 2004 and also in May, 2004 the price was increased (by $6) to $95 per point. SSR has seen the largest increase, to date, over the life of it's sales history - beginning at $89 and ending at $104 - an increase of $15 per point.

As of now, we have not had a price increase since March, 2007 when it increased to it's current $104 per point. IMO, we are certainly due for an increase.

I suspect that the economy has played some role in the lack of any increase in the past 16 months. It will be interesting to see what sort of increase will be next.

[roadtripper]

Regarding the comment about the predicted price increase - if it truly is similar to the increase when BCV sales began it may be far lower than $10 per point.

In June, 2001, the price per point for DVC (VWL was selling at that time) was $75.

BCV sales began in March , 2002 - still at $75 per point (no increase at all when BCV sales began).

We bought into BCV (as new members) in Feb 2002 at 70pp after incentives, if I recall correctly. Can that be right, or is that just what I told DH it was?;)

[WebmasterDoc]

We bought into BCV (as new members) in Feb 2002 at 70pp after incentives, if I recall correctly. Can that be right, or is that just what I told DH it was?;)

The $70 number - including incentives - is entirely possible but the raw price per point was definitely at $75 without any incentives. As for the start date of sales, March is the date we've had listed here on the DIS for years now , but I suppose someone could have a February purchase date. You can verify the date by looking at the Orange County records at https://officialrecords.occompt.com/recorder/eagleweb/docSearch.jsp .

If you find a date earlier than March, 2002 for your purchase at BCV please report back! :)

Edited to add: I researched old posts here on the DIS (not an easy task) and found this one from February 3, 2002- when sales did begin at BCV at $75 per point. There is also some information/discussion about the incentives offered then. Thanks for the correction, Roadtripper! :)

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=154520

[jade1]

We bought into BCV (as new members) in Feb 2002 at 70pp after incentives, if I recall correctly. Can that be right, or is that just what I told DH it was?;)

It was $5 off of $75 ($70), or a certain number of nights in a deluxe. Ours says we paid $70, and somehow got the first years points which we rented.

[zalansky]

So, can anyone confirm CM's are no longer eligible for a DVC discount as of today? :3dglasses

[Greg K.]

The $70 number - including incentives - is entirely possible but the raw price per point was definitely at $75 without any incentives. As for the start date of sales, March is the date we've had listed here on the DIS for years now , but I suppose someone could have a February purchase date. You can verify the date by looking at the Orange County records at https://officialrecords.occompt.com/recorder/eagleweb/docSearch.jsp .




How's this:

http://www.****************/********************

[WebmasterDoc]

We bought into BCV (as new members) in Feb 2002 at 70pp after incentives, if I recall correctly. Can that be right, or is that just what I told DH it was?;)


I just wanted to report that roadtripper was indeed correct. Sales began for BCV on February 3, 2002 at $75 per point - plus an available $5 incentive. I looked back at old DIS threads from early 2002 (not an easy task) and found this thread (among others) - from that date outlining the new incentives.

VWL sales "ended" on February 2, 2002 (although they did continue on for a few more months) and BCV sales began the next day. In March (6th?), MS began accepting reservations from BCV owners for dates in August, 2002 when the resort officially opened.

Here is a link to the thread from 2/3/02 BCV Sales Begin (http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=154520)

Thanks to roadtripper for the correction! :)

[jarestel]

There are plenty of folks who will pay $120+ pp for monorail rides and the ability to hoof it to MK. Don't kid yourselves, BLT will sell very quickly. And in a few years when DVC prices are higher, it will seem like a bargain.

BTW, if a posted rumor comes to pass within the approximate timeline, I would consider the poster to be fairly reliable.

[bookwormde]

Jarestel

This is what I thought 3 months ago, but as the economy softens further 1st time purchase will suffer (particularly with the likely $20,000+ starting point). Being on the monorail is a strong draw only for those who have looked before and decided not to buy and existing members who have been waiting. Of the existing members those who have been considering purchases for less than a weeks worth of points for the accommodation they like, and who are aware of the new booking rules, will certainly be having second thoughts. Even some of those who would buy full week +, amounts of points and were going to by it in several small contracts for resale purposes will be given pause that small contract may not have the previous allure. This is particularly an issue with the extreme high demand that is likely to be maintained for a significant portion of the year initially.

It is only a guess but I would think that 1/3 to ½ of the points sold in the first 3 months would fall I the 2 questioning groups I mentioned above. If only ½ decide to delay or not to purchase at all that is a big impact on initial sales.

Anecdotally virtually everyone who is a small contract considerer has stated that it does not make much sense with the new booking rules.

I am one who will no longer consider BLT or any other add on.

I guess we will see in a couple of months.

bookwormde

[jarestel]

This is what I thought 3 months ago, but as the economy softens further 1st time purchase will suffer (particularly with the likely $20,000+ starting point). Being on the monorail is a strong draw only for those who have looked before and decided not to buy and existing members who have been waiting. Of the existing members those who have been considering purchases for less than a weeks worth of points for the accommodation they like, and who are aware of the new booking rules, will certainly be having second thoughts. Even some of those who would buy full week +, amounts of points and were going to by it in several small contracts for resale purposes will be given pause that small contract may not have the previous allure. This is particularly an issue with the extreme high demand that is likely to be maintained for a significant portion of the year initially.

It is only a guess but I would think that 1/3 to ½ of the points sold in the first 3 months would fall I the 2 questioning groups I mentioned above. If only ½ decide to delay or not to purchase at all that is a big impact on initial sales.

Anecdotally virtually everyone who is a small contract considerer has stated that it does not make much sense with the new booking rules.

I am one who will no longer consider BLT or any other add on.

I guess we will see in a couple of months.

bookwormde

Like you, I wouldn't consider BLT, but only because I don't care for the Contemporary Resort. However, don't underestimate the number of folks who think monorail transportation & walking to theme parks is the be all and end all of DVC nirvana.

Small add-ons at resorts for existing members are pretty much a drop in the bucket as far as total sales go. I still think many small add-ons will occur but whether they do or don't, BLT will still be a "hot" property.

[DeeCee735]

I too think BLT will be a hot property, but I also think it will be most attractive to those with younger children, MK is most popular among this group. Not that I don't love and visit MK, it's just no longer a priority park now that our kids are grown, and I'm guessing alot of people feel that way now.

The fact that one can get to both EPCOT and MK from the monorail will add to this selling point.

We wouldn't consider an add on there.....maybe if was the Poly;) ...

[bookwormde]

Jarestel

I do not have any hard data on what percentages of current sales are for less than a week (even the 160 that has been the base until recently is not enough for a week in a 1,2br or a GV.) but I suspect that if DVC decided to lower the point requirements to 100 at AKL that it is definitely a big enough portion of the market to be significant or they would not have made that change.

bookwormde

[mj2vacation]

2002 , when the bcv went on sale, was right after 9/11. That did not slow sales much.

[DVC Mike]

However, don't underestimate the number of folks who think monorail transportation & walking to theme parks is the be all and end all of DVC nirvana.


Having the theme-park view and being able to watch Wishes from your room will give BLT one of the best DVC views. Being able to walk to the MK will be great. Being able to jump on the monorail to dine at the GF or Poly is great too.

We don't have any kids, but we're still excited about a DVC resort at the Contemporary.

[jarestel]

Having the theme-park view and being able to watch Wishes from your room will give BLT one of the best DVC views. Being able to walk to the MK will be great. Being able to jump on the monorail to dine at the GF or Poly is great too.

We don't have any kids, but we're still excited about a DVC resort at the Contemporary.

There you go, then! Even more reasons why BLT will probably be a quick seller, regardless of price.

[lugnut33]

Is it possible that BLT will be 1 week stay minimum? Could they write that into the contracts?

[DVC Mike]

Is it possible that BLT will be 1 week stay minimum? Could they write that into the contracts?

The documents that DVC filed with the state were almost identical to the documents used fopr all prior DVC resorts. I guess it's theoretically possible, but why would Disney want to risk reduced sales?

[thepops]

just like the boardwalk views, I'd bet the MK views are their own category and higher point value.

[AlexTina]

Am I missing something? I don't think that there is even a remote possibility that BLT wouldn't have specific view categories, just like AKV and BWV, if you want the view it will cost more. Although for me and my family other than the benefit of watching wishes from your balcony which I have to admit is totally awesome, I personally would rather look at the lake;) .

Tina

[simmons_m]

Hope this isn't too dumb a question but what is a Maximum Point Allocation Chart?

Sorry if I missed the answer here, but what is the max point allocation chart? And, can someone explain why the max point allocation chart might be considered too generous?
Thanks,
Mike - new DVC owner !!!!

[jpolak]

Man I was really thinking add on, but those prices are a wee bit high for me.:confused3

[DVC Mike]

Am I missing something? I don't think that there is even a remote possibility that BLT wouldn't have specific view categories, just like AKV and BWV, if you want the view it will cost more. Although for me and my family other than the benefit of watching wishes from your balcony which I have to admit is totally awesome, I personally would rather look at the lake;) .

Tina

Some members prefer the SV rooms at BWV since they are less points. I prefer the Boardwalk View at BWV since I just love the view! So yes, I will gladly pay more points for a MK view room at BLT, and those of you who would prefer to pay less points a night for another view are welcome to do so.

[WebmasterDoc]

Sorry if I missed the answer here, but what is the max point allocation chart? And, can someone explain why the max point allocation chart might be considered too generous?
Thanks,
Mike - new DVC owner !!!!

Maximum Vacation Point Reallocation is a description of the relative "value" of the points at a DVC resort IF there were no seasons or differences for weeknights/weekends. It descibes the number of consecutive use days available for a specific number of points.

When OKW opened in 1991, 230 points could be used in a studio for 10 nights in Premier Season, 14 in Magic, 15 in Dream, 20 in Choice and 22 in Value. (Those numbers are already slightly different since there was a reallocation for OKW in 1996).

With Maximum Reallocation - an OKW Studio would allow a consecutive stay of 15 nights using 230 points. A 1BR would get 7 consecutive nights. A 2BR would get 5 consecutive nights and a GV would get 3 nights.

From the POS:

"A maximum reallocation of Vacation Point reservaton requirements would result in the "levelling" of all seasons, such that Vacation Point reservation requirements would have no variation based on seasonality or different times of the year. Similarly, a maximum reallocation of Vacation Point reservation requirements would result in a "levelling" of differenced in Vacation Point reservation requirements based on particular Use Days in the week."

DVC Members do need to be aware that a reallocation could happen - without consultation from members - and that even the Home Resort Reservation Priority could be reduced to a one month advantage , where no-home reservations could be made 10 months in advance. There are some restrictions regarding the amount of reallocation which could occur in any one year (20%), but the issue is clearly spelled out in the DVC document.

Having said this, I do not expect any reallocation in the near future. As each new resort has come online into the DVC system, they have had the opportunity to modify the point requirements on an individual basis for the new resort. DVC, to a minimal extent, has done this with SSR and AKV by establishing some variance in the point charts for those 2 resorts to differ from BWV, VWL and BCV. VB and HH and even BWV each has it's own unique point requirement - and each was established when the resorts began sales. Only OKW has gone thru change - where some nights were raised and others were lowered and most weren't changed at all.

Stay Tuned!

[TenThousandVolts]

Man I was really thinking add on, but those prices are a wee bit high for me.:confused3

Well, maybe this high $$$ figure is a strategic leak. They leak info saying we should expect a $10-20 per point increase with no incentives. Now everyone latches onto the figure $124 ($104+$20) and talks about how crazy high that is for a few weeks. Then, they announce BLT at $119 with an $8 per point incentive- bringing the price to $111. After a month of all of us throwing around the $124 figure- all of the sudden we all think $111 is the bargain of the century and we will buy with reckless abandon. hmmmm- one can dream right.

[itsreally4mommy]

Not to mention those that find the prelim BLT figures steep go ahead and jump on AKV.