View Full Version : DVC Devaluation????What do you think?
02-12-2002, 01:02 PM
Well, with all of the new resorts that DVC plans to build.....will it hurt our DVC re-sale values?
I KNOW, I KNOW.....you don't have plans to sell!!! No one can predict the future....someday you may have to sell?
So pretend, do you think w/ all of the DVC members, and new resorts....will it hurt our re-sales?
Example: instead of 50 memberships for sale, will we have 200 for sale in a couple of years.....will we discount our points to make the sale?
Help!! I love DVC, but what do you think???
I'm not looking for a fight, but just thinking of the future.
No picking on me!!!
Just kidding, I've seen some nasty responses in the past....almost afraid sometimes to add a new thread!!!
PamOKW, Hey, what do you think!!!!
I don't know how to post a poll, but it would be interesting.
Yes/No Will the growing off DVC hurt re-sale values?
02-12-2002, 01:13 PM
I hope it does, then maybe I can pick up a CHEAP resale.
But in fact with Disney's right of first refusal the price will probably remain fairly constant.
02-12-2002, 01:20 PM
By the time I plan to sell (5-10 years from now), I will have more than "broken even". In other words, I would have spent more on WDW accomodations without DVC than the combined cost of my initial investment plus dues, and even including items like opportunity cost, etc.
So ANY $$ that I may receive for the remaining years of my membership will just be a bonus/profit.
I don't think the increasing numbers of DVC resorts/members will devalue the DVC. (It's not like DVC is a pyramid scheme or something. :D ) I actually think more resorts makes my DVC membership more valuable. Choice is good! IMHO, Disney has a long way to go before supply outstrips demand. Supply at my home resort is already very limitied as it is sold out.
I think it's the decreasing length of the membership (2042 is coming) that will eventually decrease resale values.
02-12-2002, 01:33 PM
At some point, the value will drop anyway as fewer years left of use are available. My guess is that won't factor in for about another 10 years.
The other thing that can bring down prices in the resale is slow sales of new DVC units. If they are going slow, count on DVD to offer more incentives and discounts like MB. That will depress the resale market as well.
And finally, the WDW experience itself will come into play. If things such as EE go away permanently, then the on-site advantage is severely hampered. That would reduce demand for any on-site accommodation, including DVC, and would depress the resale market along with everything else.
The flip side, is that when the economy rebounds, and Disney reinstates full park hours, attractions, and EE and DVD continues to support minimum resale pricing.....then the resales will maintain their value or even go up a little (after BCV goes up to $80 for instance).
02-12-2002, 02:49 PM
Who knows what will happen long term. The law of supply and demand could have some effect on resales. More supply (leading to less demand for what had been a more limited product) could mean that resales could go lower. However, following that logic would mean direct sales would go down, too. I don't think that will happen. BCV pricing will be $80 soon. When DVC raises the price to $80 a point I bet you will see a corresponding jump in resale pricing. Resales need to be priced cheaper than direct sales and I would imagine the pricing will track with DVC pricing. DVC goes up, resales go up - and remain an attractive alternative. Then you have the issue of people who want a sold out resort. That commands a premium as well. Not that I plan to sell, but I hope resale values go up. That will make the 2 resales we just bought look like an even smarter move than we though it was :).
02-12-2002, 03:37 PM
don't worry..be happy:cool: :) :) :) :)
02-13-2002, 04:55 AM
While Disney continues to sell DVC, in it's current form, then potential sellers/buyers of resales have a "benchmark" to guide them for a "fair value" on their resale. If/when Disney stop selling DVC or put into place a product that is significantly different to the current DVC resorts (i.e. DVC 2 with a different end year) then pricing a resale will be a lot more difficult. While inflation and Disney keep raising the price of new units/developments the resale price is going to remain strong and increase in value ( it's easy to work out what is a good deal ) . IMHO the only major reason for a drop in resale pprices would be WDW ceasing to be a major draw of vacationers, I think that's unlikely.
02-13-2002, 07:47 AM
I pretty much agree with Vernon's take.
If anyone told me when I purchased that I'd be able to sell for MORE than I had paid I wouldn't have believed it. There will probably be a point where we aren't making money on a sale but we'll still be recouping most of the initial investment.
I think that deflation in value is a risk in whatever "investment" you own; the stock market illustrates that. Housing could someday make the same trip as far as I'm concerned.
DVC for me was a way to pay for future vacations. Yes, I know I pay those yearly fees but when I consider that I would be paying about $2100-2500 for just a week in a deluxe resort, the fee pales by comparison.
02-13-2002, 09:09 AM
yes it does but who cares, enjoy it until it ends
02-13-2002, 09:17 AM
I personally have wondered how they can keep raising prices even though the term is shorter and shorter...
02-13-2002, 12:20 PM
instead of 50 memberships for sale, will we have 200 for sale in a couple of years
Membership is currently around 60,000. When all the new units are sold down the road, membership will surely top 100,000.
That 200 resales would still only be at 0.2% of members. It would still be a seller's market. (not withstanding another special market like the current one.) The biggest factor would be Disney's prices for what they would be selling.
As the 40 remaining years dwindle, then you'll start seeing resales increase. At about 20 years they'll probably be into the thousands. After that I see resales declining rapidly as members then will not intend to sell, but rather enjoy the remaining time themselves all the way to the end since prices would be dropping steadily. Obviously a resale wouldn't be worth much in 2040.
02-13-2002, 01:22 PM
in addressing the problem of potential devaluation, it's critical to isolate the near-term threat posed by kenneth lay & co.
it's pretty clear in retrospect that enron's troubles largely stem from its off-balance sheet holdings in dvc. multiple interlocking partnerships set up by andrew fastow, each pyramiding point holdings at vero, hh, bwv, vwl and okw are what drove them over the edge. i have no doubt that when all the dirty laundry is aired we'll see that arthur andersen's audits were held at the hoop dee doo review, while members of the audit committee capered about pool-hopping from one end of wdw to the other.
the point, of course, is the millions of dvc points that will be flooding the market as the judge overseeing the enron bankruptcy sells of assets to meet a portion of the claims of the secured creditors. not to mention the thousands of dvc tote bags which the court will order sold over ebay.
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