Very Interesting DVC Rumors

[TTFN!]

I just found a post by a regular at another DVC site that I frequent, with some exciting rumors. This guy's sources usually seem to be right, so I thought (hope) it will be okay to post his info here!

Dear Gentle Taginators!

Thanks to Leftcoaster from www.**************** (http://www.****************) for the tip!!!!

Just off the phone with Deep Croaker and announced today:

1) Developer Points Bonus will end August 31. He expects *NO OFFICAL ANNOUNCEMENT*, just there August 31 and not there (as in gone) September 1!

2) REALLY BIG NEWS!!!
On 9/24/2007 OKW owners will be given a one-time option to extend their 2042 contracts until 2057. Price has not been decided upon.

I agressively questioned/challenged DC on # 2. It seems like short notice to me, especially without a price or process announced. DC strongly defended his info stating that:

A) Big cash flow increase for DVC.
B) Good way to reduce OKW excess inventory held by DVC
C) An effective way to reduce losses to resale, without adding an administrative fee to new resales (DC expects that may come to pass as well, in the future!)

Unrelated interesting fact. DVC Owners who contact DVC to sell back their memberships, are given a one-time buy back offer from DVC, about 60% of owners accept that offer!

DC expects GCV or CRV to be announced at the October Hometown meeting, and then the remaining resort (GCV or CRB) to be announced at the Mayish Hometown meeting.

Thanks again Lefty for the heads-up. I have been too busy lately to post much (gout attack slowed me waaaaaay down!)

More later!

Please Note: I have only one source (so far) for these rumors......;)

-Tony

End of Quote.

I'm not sure why some of the info is replaced by stars, but I assume there must be a reason. Anyway, I certainly hope the OKW extention to 2057 is true. OKW is my favorite resort and I would gladly pay extra for additional years!

[isyt]

Wow :eek: !! This is all very interesting!! I am leaning towards a octoberish announcement for GCV but am hoping for CRV. Lets see how this plays out!!

[tomandrobin]

Thanks for the "DC" update! Interesting dtuff about OKW, I bet that will add a jump to thier resale prices.

I wonder if any OKW contracts sold by Disney from that point will have the extended end date, for an extra cost over prices now.

[LoveMyDisneyCats]

Bummer that if it is true, that it is only OKW members. I have VB and Parents have BWV and I would absolutely pay $$ for extension.

[keishashadow]

Bummer that if it is true, that it is only OKW members. I have VB and Parents have BWV and I would absolutely pay $$ for extension.

if they offer it for one, and it's profitable, can the others be far behind;)

very interesting, hope it plays out as you laid it out.:wizard:

OP i'm told gout is a royal pain, hope you feel better soon.

[mikeandkarla]

popcorn::

[kimberh]

This is very interesting. :thumbsup2 I wish VWL would extend. Time will tell.

[ACDSNY]

I'm hoping for the GC announcement in Oct. The three building permits are sounding promising!

[Longhairbear]

I'm hoping for the GC announcement in Oct. The three building permits are sounding promising!
And the new signs with the new names of the towers at DLH are up.

[Dis13]

Wow. They must have heard me tell DH I was thinking about selling our OKW points to buy CRV if announced, so we'd have two "longer" contracts for the kids (AKV and CRV).

This would be awesome (however, now I must find more $$$$)....:cool1:

Sounds like CRV announcement might be sooner than we think!

[disneynutz]

popcorn::

[Disney Kim]

How much do you think they would charge per point to extend the years??

[spiceycat]

How much do you think they would charge per point to extend the years??

that is my problem too.

2042-2057 is only 15 years. Not a long time. So hoping only a $1,000 or $2,000 more than that and it won't be worth it for me. At my age it doesn't matter so much. I will be gone by then. but for resale it might be worth it.

I hope it is CRV in Oct - but hey I guess May is soon enough for CRV. You DVC members in Ca have waited a long time for a DVC resort near you.

[bababear_50]

popcorn:: popcorn::
wow lots of questions floating around in my mind

how much per point ?

will it effect MF cost?

Will the MF be higher during the last 15 years due to age of OKW?

Will it effect resale of contract if the 15 years isn't added on.

Why only one time opportunity??

Why not more notice --that's really only a month away and no offical word from Disney.

Hmmmmm I really wanted CRV--saving now for that,,,Hmmm lots of questions

[wildernessDad]

If they extend VWL, I am definitely in, although I will not be around to see it. I can pass it on or resell it. I'd like to pass it on.

[Muushka]

I'll partake in some of that popcornpopcorn::

Like Spicey, we will be too old to enjoy the extension (and no heirs to leave it to), but if it will add more value to resale, then maybe we will also do it if they offer it for VWL and the price is right.

[Disney Kim]

I would love love love to extend my OKW contract, I only own 26 points there and me and DH were considering selling them to buy more at a resort with more years, If this rumor is true we could extend OKW and just buy more points there..
:cool1:

[CarolA]

Nothing of interest to me. I don't think I will extend my OKW since I will be 82 when it dies LOL!

On an unrelated note, am I the only person bothered by the "lifting" of a post from another board? It wasn't a link or a paraphrase, but a wholesale copy..... (Especially since I have a very strong thought that this person may have once posted here.... Hmmm. Tony?)

[TTFN!]

Hey All!

I'm suprised that no one has commented on the 'end' of the developer points bonus.

CarolA:

I hear your concerns, which is why I made it clear in the original post, the source of my quote. I don't see it any different than posters who quote stories from Orlando News websites, or other 'Mainstream Disney Boards' such as www.mousesavers.com and www.allears.net.

However, I don't know all the rules here yet, and if I posted against rules, then hopefully the Moderators will remove the post and gently correct me.

I can't get search to work for me at all, but at the ****** out website this guy's handle is greenbeanned and he does sign his posts as Tony, so it may infact be who you are referring to.

[pilferk]

that is my problem too.

2042-2057 is only 15 years. Not a long time. So hoping only a $1,000 or $2,000 more than that and it won't be worth it for me. At my age it doesn't matter so much. I will be gone by then. but for resale it might be worth it.

I hope it is CRV in Oct - but hey I guess May is soon enough for CRV. You DVC members in Ca have waited a long time for a DVC resort near you.

My completely unfounded guess is somewhere between $25 and $35 ppt.

Why?

Current DVC price per point: $104

104/50: $2.08

$2.08 * 15 years = $31.20.

We'll see how accurate that guess is if this comes to pass.

[pilferk]

Nothing of interest to me. I don't think I will extend my OKW since I will be 82 when it dies LOL!

On an unrelated note, am I the only person bothered by the "lifting" of a post from another board? It wasn't a link or a paraphrase, but a wholesale copy..... (Especially since I have a very strong thought that this person may have once posted here.... Hmmm. Tony?)

It's exactly the person you're thinking of, on a site that is not allowed to be named (thus the *'s). Greenban (aka Tony) has said (though not on THIS post, I don't think) he doesn't mind his posts being transplanted to other sites he's been banned from.

What the mods would prefer is up to them.

[pilferk]

FYI, from further info (same source as OP):

It sounds like there will be an OKW Board VOTE on Sept 24th to approve an offer of extension.

Once that is approved, THEN they'll design the extension options, etc.

There's some mention of restriction on extension of resale contracts, but I'm not clear what's meant by that, exactly. I'm not sure if they mean FUTURE resold contracts (after the extension is announced) or ones currently aquired via resale. Anyway, the restriction mentioned is adding on an admin fee to get the contract extended.

[CarolA]

Hey All!

I'm suprised that no one has commented on the 'end' of the developer points bonus.

CarolA:

I hear your concerns, which is why I made it clear in the original post, the source of my quote. I don't see it any different than posters who quote stories from Orlando News websites, or other 'Mainstream Disney Boards' such as www.mousesavers.com and www.allears.net.

However, I don't know all the rules here yet, and if I posted against rules, then hopefully the Moderators will remove the post and gently correct me.

I can't get search to work for me at all, but at the ****** out website this guy's handle is greenbeanned and he does sign his posts as Tony, so it may infact be who you are referring to.

I don't think you did anything against the rules. I guess this is just a risk of posting on an internet.

I did find the Original Post and my guess was right. Something tells me he probably would be flattered!

[spiceycat]

My completely unfounded guess is somewhere between $25 and $35 ppt.

Why?

Current DVC price per point: $104

104/50: $2.08

$2.08 * 15 years = $31.20.

We'll see how accurate that guess is if this comes to pass.

that is too expensive for me. So I guess I won't do it.:eek: :sad2:

that would be $7,504 for me

considering that I paid $14,062.50 for my 240 points. that is more than half the value for only 15 years.

so still waiting for CRV.

[nuts]

Am I allowed to ask why he was banned?
:confused3

[spiceycat]

they won't tell us. Maybe jealous - he definitely have some good contacts in the DVC.

of course Disney can get mad at pre-leased information getting to us. So maybe that was it.

[pilferk]

that is too expensive for me. So I guess I won't do it.:eek: :sad2:

that would be $7,504 for me

considering that I paid $14,062.50 for my 240 points. that is more than half the value for only 15 years.

so still waiting for CRV.

It's pricey, but that's pretty much what Disney is charging now for 15 years worth of 240 points.

Now, I could be way off...they could go $5 to $10 ppt cheaper BECAUSE it's simply an extension, with little to no capital outlay (building a new facility,etc). I can certainly see reasoning behind that kind of difference in my "guess"...but based on the numbers we have, I'm thinking somewhere AROUND the number I first postulated.

We'll see...it'll be interesting, AND it sort of answers the question "What will happen in 2042".

Anyone know what DISNEY is charging, currently, per point for OKW? An alternate theory is that they'll charge the "difference" between the current price per point for OKW and the current "new" DVC retail price ($104 per pt).

[Sammie]

of course Disney can get mad at pre-leased information getting to us. So maybe that was it.

Disney does not get upset about rumors. And until it is official, it is rumor.

[CarolA]

So what happens to BW, BC and VWL?

[pilferk]

So what happens to BW, BC and VWL?

The speculation is they'll wait and see how OKW goes, and then make decisions on those resorts, case by case.

So, in essence: Who knows?

The only reason I can see Disney doing it a bit different is that those facilities are all attached to a hotel...OKW obviously is not. So they MAY weigh the value of putting the DVC rooms into hotel service vs offering an extension to owners...or rather, weigh that factor a bit more heavily than with OKW.

I think if OKW does it, and it's successful, that the other '42 resorts will follow. But we'll see.

[Sammie]

we would not be interested in any extensions.

With the present management of DVC being so focused on sales and expansion and less about exisiting problems and concerns of current members, I seriously doubt we will even keep ours until the orginial expiration.

[Sammie]

double posting, I am having trouble lately with this, sorry.

[pilferk]

we would not be interested in any extensions.

With the present management of DVC being so focused on sales and expansion and less about exisiting problems and concerns of current members, I seriously doubt we will even keep ours until the orginial expiration.

From a new member, I'm wondering, exactly, what you're thinking of when you say "existing problems and concerns of current members".

Anything specific you'd be willing to share?

[salmoneous]

My completely unfounded guess is somewhere between $25 and $35 ppt.

Why?

Current DVC price per point: $104

104/50: $2.08

$2.08 * 15 years = $31.20.

We'll see how accurate that guess is if this comes to pass. There are two questions - what's a fair price, and what will Disney charge (assuming it happens).

For "fair price," you can't just take the current per/point cost and apply it to the extension. There's a world of difference between paying for points you can begin to use now, and paying for points you can't start to use for 35 years.

One thing to look at is how the market currently values extra years. We can get a crude feel for that by looking at current resale prices for OKW vs SSR. SSR prices are about $5/point more. That's a 12-year difference, so figure $6/point for 15 years. It's not a perfect comparison, but the resorts are similar enough to suggest that $6/point is in the right ballpark (as opposed to $25-35/point).

Of course, that doesn't mean Disney won't ask for $25/point. It's their first offer - why not shoot for the moon. If people don't bite, you can always lower the price later.

[pilferk]

There are two questions - what's a fair price, and what will Disney charge (assuming it happens).

For "fair price," you can't just take the current per/point cost and apply it to the extension. There's a world of difference between paying for points you can begin to use now, and paying for points you can't start to use for 35 years.

One thing to look at is how the market currently values extra years. We can get a crude feel for that by looking at current resale prices for OKW vs SSR. SSR prices are about $5/point more. That's a 12-year difference, so figure $6/point for 15 years. It's not a perfect comparison, but the resorts are similar enough to suggest that $6/point is in the right ballpark (as opposed to $25-35/point).

Of course, that doesn't mean Disney won't ask for $25/point. It's their first offer - why not shoot for the moon. If people don't bite, you can always lower the price later.

I see the point, but...

You're not paying now for points you can use in 35 years...or not any more than you're doing the same thing for a current DVC contract when you pay $104 per point (or $96 with discount) to get 50 years worth of points. Since you have to OWN a OKW contact now...you're simply extending the life of that contract, not paying for one you can ONLY use 35 years from now. I don't see much of any difference, fiscally speaking.

Now, I acknowledged (in a later post) I CAN see them charging less because, quite frankly, there's no capital to put up to build a new facility and infrastructure. Given that, you're probably right...you can't compare the current price (which takes into account construction costs) and use it to "figure" an extension price.

I do see the point about resale prices, but....quite frankly, I doubt Disney will. I'm not sure I think $6 per point is fair (maybe double to triple that), but I do know expecting it to be that low is probably not realistic.

Again, all this is guesswork...and I'll stand by my prediction: $25 to $35 per point. We'll have to see how far off I am if this comes to pass.

[Dis13]

There's no way I'd pay $25 - $30 per point. I paid approx. $80 via resale last year. That would make my total price per point $105-$110. Maybe it would be worth it for those who have owned since the beginning, but I couldn't justify it.

Now an additional $5/$10 - I may consider keeping my OKW points AND adding on at CRV :banana:

[MickeyCrazed]

Am I allowed to ask why he was banned?
:confused3

I don't know why he was banned...

Someone may PM you with that information, however, I don't think the Moderators appreciate open discussion about things of this nature.

[pilferk]

There's no way I'd pay $25 - $30 per point. I paid approx. $80 via resale last year. That would make my total price per point $105-$110.

Which would be pretty close to what the retail price is right now ($104).

I think, if you REALLY think about it, that while you can HOPE for $5 to $10 per point, you can't realistically expect the number to be that small. For a 250 point contract, you'd be talking between 1250 and 2500 for 15 years of extra points, or $166 per year (less than $1 per point per year). I just can't see Disney going anywhere CLOSE to that low. You'd be paying a "lower" room rate than you are right now....

You paid 80/ppt for resale...for how many years of points? 36 years? That's 2.22 per point, per year....or around $30 per point for 15 years worth of points.

[Dis13]

Right. But isn't OKW currently selling for $92 or $94 for a new contract thru Disney (which, obviously, not many are purchasing, hence the overload of OKW inventory)?

So, while, yes, I see your point, I still think that it's a little too high. Maybe something in between.

However, if they "dust off" the OKW points and make them "shiny and new" and worth 50 years, I can see them squeezing the current owners for additional $$$ to make theirs "shiny and new" too. Otherwise, they'll be worth less on the resale market.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see:goodvibes

[ChrisMouse]

Very interesting! popcorn::

It will be exciting to see what happens with these rumors. Depending on the price, I could definitely be convinced to pay to add years to my OKW (we almost considered SSR or AKV just for the extra years).

I'm also chomping at the bit to hear news about GCV...

:banana:

[tjkraz]

From a new member, I'm wondering, exactly, what you're thinking of when you say "existing problems and concerns of current members".


Oh, I could put together a pretty good list of items off the top of my head:

* Growing number of untrained Member Services CMs who mishandle reservations or give callers erroneous information.

* Ongoing problems with member website (I used to be a big defender of the website given that 4 years ago we didn't even have unique member IDs. However development has stalled in recent years and I'm really tired of hearing how people can't get on--that's a development issue not user error.)

* Changes to the waitlist procedure (now auto-confirm only) which are nothing more than a cost saving measure by DVC.

* Flawed waitlist room assignment process that has rooms magically appearing in inventory when guests call.

* Stagnating discount program--the last noteworthy discount was the AP discount introduced in January '05...and that's not even a benefit that all members can use. It's also a discount that continues to lose value since AP prices are rising while the discount amount remains unchanged.

* Continued inconsistencies in room assignment procedures. Within the last year DVC ran a story in one of their newsletters describing the "Room Ready" system and claiming that it's the process used at all DVC resorts, yet many resorts continue to pre-assign rooms. (BTW, it used to be that rooms were assigned based upon the date the reservation was made, such that those booking 11 mos out would have first crack at getting their requests met. I suspect there are a lot of people still upset that this policy was eliminated.)

* Little interest on DVC's part in creating additional views / room categories at existing resorts. By the time Kidani Village is open, AKV will have at least 6 different room categories. Why do OKW, BCV, VWL and SSR have just ONE category each? It would all be computerized and (IMO) would greatly enhance member satisfaction, yet requests to make changes are met with ambivalence by DVC.

* No movement on things like adding HDTVs to existing guests rooms and coffee tables to Studio rooms that lack them (people have been asking about these at annual meetings at least back to '03 and DVC always says "we're working on it.")

* Elimination of monthly DVC newsletter.

* Embarassing communications with members regarding AKV sales start-up (not least of which is the tapestry FUBAR.)

* I also think the quality / frequency with which DVC solicits members for add-on sales or to recruit other individuals as members borders on embarassing. Last Fall many were up-in-arms over a mailer that DVC sent to all members. It was a package sent via Fed Ex that contained a box about 10" x 8" x 2". What was in the box? A set of about a dozen postcards. That's it--just postcards! It was yet another "send these off to your friends and spread the word about DVC" thing. Granted that's just a DVC sales expense with no impact on member dues, but it's disappointing to think that energies (and money) are being expended on things like that and not projects that are of greater value to members.

Now that you're a member, expect to get something in the mail at least 3-4 times per year either soliciting you to add more points and/or remining you to get your friends to buy in!

Generally speaking, it's sad to see that most of what DVC has to promote these days has a sales focus--AKV model rooms, new Chicago sales center, member parties outside Epcot (there's a line item in our dues for funding member events--can't we just have fun for once???), weekly member meetings at Atlantic Dance Hall...even things like the member cruises hit you pretty hard for additional point sales.

Add all of this to the recent price changes at WDW (DDP changes, ticket price hikes, new room rates, etc.) and I don't blame people for their ambivalence. IMO, the funk currently impacting many long-time Disney fans right now is, in many ways, worse than post-9/11 when Disney closed hotels, dramatically cut-back park hours, eliminated EMH, reduced park maintenance, and so on.

[BWV Dreamin]

Very interesting! popcorn::

It will be exciting to see what happens with these rumors. Depending on the price, I could definitely be convinced to pay to add years to my OKW (we almost considered SSR or AKV just for the extra years).

I'm also chomping at the bit to hear news about GCV...

:banana:

It would be very interesting to see how any extension of the current 2042 resorts would play on the overall cost to purchase these resort contracts thru Disney. Yes, a one time discounted price to extend is one thing, but this would obviously have to increase the current price per point for new contracts. Thus, driving up these prices up will not give the newer resorts any more sales/resales advantage as far as time is concerned.

[squidmo]

I'm hoping for the GC announcement in Oct. The three building permits are sounding promising!

Me too! And there are two reasons I think that GCV will be announced this year:

1) A permit to renovate the DVC "mock-up" unit in Disneyland has already been submitted AND was submitted by the same architect as the first permit for the Grand Californian Hotel expansion. If they weren't going to announce this year, there would be no reason to pull the permit for the mock-up unit so early.

2) Two large new timeshares are going to be opening up in Anaheim next year which are within walking distance of Disneyland. I'm pretty sure Disney is not going to want to be the last to arrive at the "Timeshare party".

Well, and there's reason #3 too- I really, really want it to happen!

[spiceycat]

I think, if you REALLY think about it, that while you can HOPE for $5 to $10 per point, you can't realistically expect the number to be that small. For a 250 point contract, you'd be talking between 1250 and 2500 for 15 years of extra points, or $166 per year (less than $1 per point per year). I just can't see Disney going anywhere CLOSE to that low. You'd be paying a "lower" room rate than you are right now....



hey I paid much less. So if it isn't between $2 and $10 per point. Simply won't buy it.

this is an addition to members who are mostly going to be dead or at least in their 70's in 2042. (okay I few of you might in the 60's)

Disney has to made us want it. Sorry at the prices you are talking about I would rather put another $70 with it and go with CRV. It will be a new resort not 15 years old already.

as I say I paid $14062.50 for 49 years (2042-1993) that comes out to $286.98 so per point $1.15. as I say between $2 and $10 per point is a fair price for me.

So what is a fair price to me - might not be to you.

[mjy]

The speculation is they'll wait and see how OKW goes, and then make decisions on those resorts, case by case.

So, in essence: Who knows?

The only reason I can see Disney doing it a bit different is that those facilities are all attached to a hotel...OKW obviously is not. So they MAY weigh the value of putting the DVC rooms into hotel service vs offering an extension to owners...or rather, weigh that factor a bit more heavily than with OKW.

I think if OKW does it, and it's successful, that the other '42 resorts will follow. But we'll see.

I can still remember one of the parts of the sales pitch: "And one of the reasons that Disney is only putting a 50 year limit on these contracts is because they want to leave the option open about what to do with the buildings after that. After all, other timeshare places often saddle their owners with larger debt as the buildings age and it cost more to maintain them. At least with Disney Vacation Club, you will never have to worry about that."

So, just because they may extend the contract some years out, it won't potentially greatly increase maintenance costs?

Just a curious observation . . .

[LoveMyDisneyCats]

So what happens to BW, BC and VWL?

Don't forget VB & HH! (Though I know there's a chance even if they did the other ones, these would be left out due to not being on property. I can still hope though!)

I hope if they do, it's not priced outrageous! I think my DM&D only paid in the high $60s for points and our VB points weren't too much more than that I think! Paying $35.00 per point for an upgrade would be a little much.

[Maistre Gracey]

I think there is also one overlooked reason for the possible extension (unless I missed it earlier in the thread):

What would Disney do with all those rooms dumped in their lap all at once? I doubt they could fill OKW, BWV, VWL, and BCV on day one, especially with the rates that a 2br or GV would command.
VB and HH are a whole 'nother ballgame.
In the meantime, maintenance would still need to be done.

Perhaps they will only extend one resort at a time, as to stagger the end dates. :smokin:

MG

[keishashadow]

Just Wondering as to the OPs original blurb about owners contacting DVC re a buyback, with 60% accepting offer...

anyone know the "magic number" DVC offers; probably hush-hush/varies by resort, yada, yada...

my guess-timate would be akin to other TS resale offers 50% or $50 to $60 pp, depending on resort:confused3

[LisaS]

Just Wondering as to the OPs original blurb about owners contacting DVC re a buyback, with 60% accepting offer...

anyone know the "magic number" DVC offers; probably hush-hush/varies by resort, yada, yada...

my guess-timate would be akin to other TS resale offers 50% or $50 to $60 pp, depending on resort:confused3A couple of people have posted here about this. The price DVC offered for BCV contracts was $50-$55/pt for BCV. Someone asked them about an HHI contract and DVC said they weren't interested in buying it back.

[tjkraz]

Just my $.02, but if this does come to pass I think the driving force behind it is simply DVC's need to have something to sell!

IIRC, the converted rooms at AKV only represent about 100 units. Over the past 4 years, DVC has been selling 100 units at SSR about every 6 months. Assuming the sales pace has been about the same and considering that SSR and AKV are selling simultaneously, I think it's very likely that both SSR and the Jambo House units at AKV will be gone by sometime this winter. (Even if the points aren't totally gone by then, there will be certain Use Years that are unavailable.)

That sort of timeline leaves DVC about a year before Kidani Village opens with nothing to sell. Even if they can legally start selling points at Kidani, they will be trying to sell a product that buyers cannot use for a year.

So, it appears they may fill the void with 50-year contracts at OKW. The one-time extension will enable DVC to earn some money off of those who choose to extend their contract, while at the same time allowing DVC to extend the contracts they hold at OKW. While the number of points is unknown, DVC could easily stockpile enough points to bridge the gap between SSK/Jambo and Kidani--maybe 3-6 months' worth of sales. Then, if the rumor mill is to be believed, the Grand Californian and Contemporary may follow in a few months or years.

Whether extensions are offered at BCV, BWV or VWL may depend largely on similar needs in the coming years. If those resorts are to remain standing after 2042, I personally think it would be more beneficial to DVC to reclaim the points then and sell new 50-year contracts. Of course, that assumes that the folks in charge at Disney are actually looking at the big picture as opposed to padding their own resumes.

HHI and Vero would also be candidates. DVC is probably sitting on a fair amount of points at those resorts, although I'm not sure if they would find it worth their while to put time and money into promoting sales there again given how long they took to sell in the first place. Extending contracts for another 15 years means a commitment to leaving those resorts open past 2042. If only a tiny percentage of current owners agree to the extension, Disney will inherit a big expense in 2042 and have to spend more money to market the points again.

[keishashadow]

A couple of people have posted here about this. The price DVC offered for BCV contracts was $50-$55/pt for BCV. Someone asked them about an HHI contract and DVC said they weren't interested in buying it back.

thanks for posting, must've missed that info; wonder where the other resorts would fall as to price and interest.

[spiceycat]

A couple of people have posted here about this. The price DVC offered for BCV contracts was $50-$55/pt for BCV. Someone asked them about an HHI contract and DVC said they weren't interested in buying it back.

and on the resale market BCV is in the high $90's.

so you got to wonder if Disney was really interested in buy back.

[spiceycat]

What would Disney do with all those rooms dumped in their lap all at once? I doubt they could fill OKW, BWV, VWL, and BCV on day one, especially with the rates that a 2br or GV would command.
VB and HH are a whole 'nother ballgame.
In the meantime, maintenance would still need to be done.

Perhaps they will only extend one resort at a time, as to stagger the end dates. :smokin:

MG

Or they kept BWV, VWL and BCV as part of BWI, WL and BC.

disney definitely needs more suites. DVC resorts would furnish them the suites that need - at basically not alot of extra costs.

I would think they would sell off VB & HH to another company.

[patsal]

I did a survey from DVC about this around a year ago. It had all that "scenario" "price" how much is "too much" , how much was "jump on", how much for "fair", etc. They mentioned all the earlier DVC's so maybe they are testing the OKW thing and then taking it form there for the others?

[OneMoreTry]

Oh, I could put together a pretty good list of items off the top of my head:

.........................
....................etc
.......................

Sounds like your DVC is a lot worse than mine. Maybe you should sell.

I would have to decide whether I want to be 82 or 97 when the points expire. I think after I'm 82 I'll just rent points until I expire.

I would choose extension only if I thought it would significantly increase resale potential for the near future.

[pilferk]

hey I paid much less. So if it isn't between $2 and $10 per point. Simply won't buy it.

this is an addition to members who are mostly going to be dead or at least in their 70's in 2042. (okay I few of you might in the 60's)

Disney has to made us want it. Sorry at the prices you are talking about I would rather put another $70 with it and go with CRV. It will be a new resort not 15 years old already.

as I say I paid $14062.50 for 49 years (2042-1993) that comes out to $286.98 so per point $1.15. as I say between $2 and $10 per point is a fair price for me.

So what is a fair price to me - might not be to you.

To put that in context, your 14062.50, in 2007 dollars, works out to be 19494.07 (because you're not buyin at '93 prices, or with '93 dollars). That's 397.83 per year, or 1.59 per point per year. At that price, you're looking at 23.85 per point.

Even at your '93 deflated price of 1.15, you'd be looking at about $17 per point per year for the extra 15 years.

I'm just saying....just because you think your range is "fair"...in other words, it's what YOU'RE willing to spend....doesn't mean it's realistic. I mean...maybe, in the end, that's what Disney will do. But.....I just don't see it happening. As I've said...we'll have to wait and see. I hope you're right, actually.....I love seeing people happy because they get what they want. But I'd steel yourself to see a number much closer to the one I guessed at than a lowball figure.

[rayelias]

They're gonna need $25 a point just to buy enough bleach to kill the mildew that's accumulating in the bathrooms. I can't imagine what it's going to look like in 2042, let alone 2057. :scared1:

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE my OKW and will probably take them up on this offer. But, they REALLY need to do some freshening up - and the resort isn't even that old, yet!

[Sammie]

From a new member, I'm wondering, exactly, what you're thinking of when you say "existing problems and concerns of current members".

Anything specific you'd be willing to share?

I think TJ covered a good many concerns. Others include a lack of the quality of service one gets at a deluxe compared to DVC. It is not the same and I think it should be.

I think DVC needs to intervene of the behalf of members and get the valet parking situation straightened out. If free valet parking at DVC resorts is truly a member perk, I should not be hassled about it by the valet and charged and then have to spend my time straightening it out.

I also think DVC resorts are not held to the same quality of maintenance that Deluxe is. If you stay at the Yacht Club then the BCV you will definitely see a difference.

There once was a time where you could contact Member Services with a complaint and you felt they really cared about your imput and changes would be made, now I feel like you get the standard PC correct email and that is about it.

I just feel like the emphasis of members being satisfied and selling DVC for DVC has shifted to DVC selling DVC and the heck with the existing membership.

[Muushka]

They're gonna need $25 a point just to buy enough bleach to kill the mildew that's accumulating in the bathrooms. I can't imagine what it's going to look like in 2042, let alone 2057. :scared1:

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE my OKW and will probably take them up on this offer. But, they REALLY need to do some freshening up - and the resort isn't even that old, yet!

:rotfl2:

[salmoneous]

I think Disney will set price based on what they think they can get - not on any sort of pricing exercise. But, just for fun, a little finance geekery...

Right now, Disney is charging $96 per point for a 50-year resort. If we assume that each year of points is equally valuable, that's $1.92 per year. But I think most people would not view each year as being equally valuable. When we pay now for something we'll get in the future, there's usually an interest discount. Plus, because we don't know what the future holds (maybe the resort will get run-down, maybe we won't want to stay there, etc.) we should put in some sort of uncertainty discount. But those two have to be offset somewhat with inflation since rooms in the future will cost more.

There's no one right discount factor - each person would have to decide what they think is appropriate. But, if you were willing to pay $XX for a point that you could use today, what would you be willing to pay for a point you could use a year from now? Two years from now? 10 years from now, etc.

Me? I'm going to pick 5%. So if I were to pay $96 for 50-years worth of points, I would value the first year at $5.01 a point. The second year at $4.77 a point... until we get to the 50th year that I would value of $0.46. Add up those 50 years, and if I've done my math right, that adds up to $96.

Once we've priced that out, we can split out the value of the last 15 years. Using my rate of 5%, those final 15 years are worth $9.90.

Here's the value at various interest rates:

0%: $28.80
1%: $23.97
3%: $15.83
5%: $9.90
7%: $5.93

[LeftCoaster]

Disney does not get upset about rumors. And until it is official, it is rumor.

At the very least, we just have to wait till they have the vote on 9/24 if they are going to proceed with this or not.

[jade1]

Kinda skimmed this but was wondering if they offered the extension for say...$25 at OKW and say only 50 owners added on-what then? Would they keep it open for the 50 members and then rent out the rest?

[diznyfanatic]

I think TJ covered a good many concerns. Others include a lack of the quality of service one gets at a deluxe compared to DVC. It is not the same and I think it should be.

I think DVC needs to intervene of the behalf of members and get the valet parking situation straightened out. If free valet parking at DVC resorts is truly a member perk, I should not be hassled about it by the valet and charged and then have to spend my time straightening it out.

I also think DVC resorts are not held to the same quality of maintenance that Deluxe is. If you stay at the Yacht Club then the BCV you will definitely see a difference.

There once was a time where you could contact Member Services with a complaint and you felt they really cared about your imput and changes would be made, now I feel like you get the standard PC correct email and that is about it.

I just feel like the emphasis of members being satisfied and selling DVC for DVC has shifted to DVC selling DVC and the heck with the existing membership.

As relatively new members (joined about a year and a half ago and 4 trips), we have been pretty pleased with our DVC experience. However, we have no way of knowing how things were prior to that in order to draw any logical comparisons.

We have felt, however, that there are definitely some areas that need vast improvements.

1. Housekeeping / Maintenence - Far, FAR too many negative experiences and reports from Members. If issues were addressed in this area, many other DVC complaints (such as not being able to access a villa until 6:00 PM or after) would probably be reduced as well.
2. MS / CM Training - It's very frustrating to receive so many different answers, or flat out incorrect information, when we've had questions or had issues arise.
3. Waitlist Process - This really needs to be clarified as well as whether they are utilizing Room Ready or Pre-assigning Rooms and then every DVC resort across the board should be handling it the same way. The Waitlist issues are probably a direct result of Disney's stone-age computer systems.
4. Update Stone-Age Computer Systems to improve efficiency. ;)

[CarolA]

From a new member, I'm wondering, exactly, what you're thinking of when you say "existing problems and concerns of current members".

Anything specific you'd be willing to share?
Rule one of these message boards.

You will be sorry you asked.

Rule two.

MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS. Most of us are very happy or have minor complaints not the LITANY you got LOL!:lmao:


(Comparing the DVC to the "Deluxe" resorts is a real joke. Disney does not do "Deluxe" resorts. They do "Disney Deluxe" That means it "looks" pretty, but doesn't meet the standard. And as for maintenance until DVC tops my Disney Resort experience where the room had NO POWER and the hotel manager told me "can't you just live with it" I think DVC is beating the "Disney Deluxe" standard LOL!)

[tjkraz]

Sounds like your DVC is a lot worse than mine. Maybe you should sell.


Why should "oh, you should just sell" be considered an acceptable response to criticism of DVC? I don't view this as a black and white issue where I'm expected to either tow the company line or hit the road.

Which items from my list do you take exception to? Do you think the waitlist changes have improved the program? Do you think the quality of training at Member Services has improved in recent years? Do you think the website is acceptable in its present form, login errors and all? Do you think that DVC is being up-front with members in claiming for four years that TV upgrades and coffee tables are in the works?

I have to agree with Sammie...more and more frequently I get the sense that DVC is just giving lip-service to issues raised by members rather than truly acting as an advocate in helping to resolve long-standing problems.

[Sammie]

Rule one of these message boards.

You will be sorry you asked.

Rule two.

MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS. Most of us are very happy or have minor complaints not the LITANY you got LOL!:lmao:


(Comparing the DVC to the "Deluxe" resorts is a real joke. Disney does not do "Deluxe" resorts. They do "Disney Deluxe" That means it "looks" pretty, but doesn't meet the standard. And as for maintenance until DVC tops my Disney Resort experience where the room had NO POWER and the hotel manager told me "can't you just live with it" I think DVC is beating the "Disney Deluxe" standard LOL!)


But see that is all in what you have experienced. Our deluxe resort experiences have been excellent, overall DVC has been good, but housekeeping and maintenance definitely need improvement at DVC.

And the current Valet free parking situation is a joke.

I would not consider either mine or TJ's comments a litany, someone asked for clarification and we gave it. To me a litany is when someone asks what you like about something and you go on and on about how bad it is. ;)

[CarolA]

Sammie,
We are going to have to agree to disagree.

I expect "DELUXE" resort at those prices to get MORE then a three star rating from independent agencies.

I expect a "Deluxe" resort to have MUCH MUCH better service then Disney is willing to pay to provide

I expect a "Deluxe" resort to have things like "high quality" shampoos and lotions, high thread count sheets, great bedding (not flat foam pillows and "comforters" LOL!)

Disney doesn't meet the standard.... Disney provides "pretty hotels" at a good location, but they don't meet the industry standard for "deluxe hotels"

I am sitting in a Marriott in Nashville, TN. The BED here is much nicer then any bed I have ever had at a Disney hotel. There's a robe in my closet. Price $189 a night.... (And this is a great location in Nashville)


I don't give Disney Deluxe resorts the "it's Disney" excuse. I expect them to meet or exceed the standard for a "deluxe" resort. They have pretty much admitted they aren't willing to compete for that customer by bringing in the Four Seasons. They are however, willing to charge "deluxe rates" Compare the rates at the 3 star Grand Floridian to the 4 star Ritz.... Same price. So is the location worth it. Not to me.


(And sorry, but if your list of issues takes two screens it's a litany IMHO!)

[Sammie]

Sammie,
We are going to have to agree to disagree.

I expect "DELUXE" resort at those prices to get MORE then a three star rating from independent agencies.

I expect a "Deluxe" resort to have MUCH MUCH better service then Disney is willing to pay to provide

I expect a "Deluxe" resort to have things like "high quality" shampoos and lotions, high thread count sheets, great bedding (not flat foam pillows and "comforters" LOL!)

Disney doesn't meet the standard.... Disney provides "pretty hotels" at a good location, but they don't meet the industry standard for "deluxe hotels"

I am sitting in a Marriott in Nashville, TN. The BED here is much nicer then any bed I have ever had at a Disney hotel. There's a robe in my closet. Price $189 a night.... (And this is a great location in Nashville)


I don't give Disney Deluxe resorts the "it's Disney" excuse. I expect them to meet or exceed the standard for a "deluxe" resort. They have pretty much admitted they aren't willing to compete for that customer by bringing in the Four Seasons. They are however, willing to charge "deluxe rates" Compare the rates at the 3 star Grand Floridian to the 4 star Ritz.... Same price. So is the location worth it. Not to me.


(And sorry, but if your list of issues takes two screens it's a litany IMHO!)

Marriots do have nice beds I agree, but I really liked mine at SSR recently and at the Grand Floridian and I love the new blankets Disney is using. So soft.

So we will just agree to disagree, just funning with you anyway.

[bavaria]

I'm glad to have CarolA in the duvet fan club.... ;)

[Beca]

Kinda skimmed this but was wondering if they offered the extension for say...$25 at OKW and say only 50 owners added on-what then? Would they keep it open for the 50 members and then rent out the rest?

I think the "one time offer" is not because DVC "needs" to sell OKW extensions to current members, but because DVC wants to be able to add 15 years to the current points it is holding in its own inventory, and most likely, HAS to offer current owners the same option (I do not know this for sure, I am just guessing). I think that's why it is a "one time" option, and not something you could do at any time. I think DVC wants to make OKW comparable to SSR and AKL so that it can begin offering OKW to customers who take the tour, and have a similar product. I think it is a "win win" situation for DVC, because they could then have a shiny, new product with no effort. I think TJ is right...there probably is going to be a shortage of inventory for awhile, and I think DVC is probably sitting on a significant number of OKW points (not a huge amount, but significant), and sees this as an easy, short-term solution for their impending problem.

If that is the case, DVC will happily begin ROFR'ing more OKW contracts in the resale process and resell them as "extended" contracts, and will probably have a significant chunk of extended contracts gone when 2042 rolls around. Then, the rest of the points would revert to DVC inventory, and they could rent them out to guests (unless another extension was offered....who KNOWS what will be going down in 2057...it won't be me...I'll be 88 years old!!).

[pilferk]

Rule one of these message boards.

You will be sorry you asked.

Rule two.

MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS. Most of us are very happy or have minor complaints not the LITANY you got LOL!:lmao:


(Comparing the DVC to the "Deluxe" resorts is a real joke. Disney does not do "Deluxe" resorts. They do "Disney Deluxe" That means it "looks" pretty, but doesn't meet the standard. And as for maintenance until DVC tops my Disney Resort experience where the room had NO POWER and the hotel manager told me "can't you just live with it" I think DVC is beating the "Disney Deluxe" standard LOL!)

We obviously have made our own decisions...as we bought in. :)

I was just curious as to what some of the "complaints" were. Most seem (to me...different people, different priorities) minor, or don't really effect us (the "loss" of discounts...since we never got them to begin with). There were a couple that might be annoyances, but not anything that would be dealbreakers for us.

The one thing that is of ANY concern to me is their taking care of, and updating, the properties. Seeing that mentioned gives me pause, but doesn't really make me worry. We'll see how things play out over the next 10 years...

[jarestel]

Rule one of these message boards.

You will be sorry you asked.

Rule two.

MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS. Most of us are very happy or have minor complaints not the LITANY you got LOL!

Long time readers of these boards will realize that tjkraz and sammie are not DVC bashers and in fact are strong supporters of the program in most instances. So when they list issues about certain areas of DVC I take them to be objective criticisms by concerned members. I don't believe there is any anti-DVC agenda on the part of these knowledgeable DVC members, just a desire to make things better by speaking up. (I do believe there are posters who have a pro-DVC agenda and defend the program in every instance by blaming all problems on guest expectations rather than questioning any move by DVC)

Having issues with certain aspects of DVC by no means indicates that one feels DVC is a horrible program. It's just the observations of someone with their eyes open. Claiming DVC is perfect doesn't do anyone (current or prospective members) any favors.

[BWV Dreamin]

IMHO, it would behoove us to continue to expect quality service and accomodations. Otherwise, DVC will fall prey to being just another, ordinary timeshare that loses incredible value over time and will be hard to sell. Its these very principles that make Disney unique to the timeshare market. We should all try to preserve the very reasons we all were basing our purchases on.

[spiceycat]

Disney has higher expectation - I didn't say this - Walt did.

DVC has gone downhill some what. I waited at OKW from 6:30 am to 5:00 pm for my studio. this is not acceptible.

also have both OKW and BWV not let me take a ready room - despite my asking for one. This is not acceptible.

VWL did.

OKW has changed - BIG TIME. It use to be the best DVC resort on property. Then SSR came along and DVC seems to have stolen all the best CM and put them at SSR.

The management at OKW has gotten out of hand. They won't hire enough maids. (and that is a fact).

but for some reason what 2 1/2 (part time) gardeners did for years - now they need what 12. way to many. and those don't seem to do the job unless you call and complaint.

OKW needs to get back to its principles - to the do best with what they have.

right now (this is my opinion) OKW has too many CM and not enough workers.

so our maintence fees goes up. Remember you are paying for EVERYTHING that is happening at OKW.

I have also noticed something else. When my trip is wonderful I get a survey.

when it is horrible I get nothing. that is fixing the ballot - my opinion.

and I do love oKW - but lets get some management that carries about the members and less about defending itself.

[Lenc324]

I have to say that my biggest concern with my DVC is housekeeping maintence and room readiness. I don't think there are enough housekeepers and it's probably due to what they are being paid. If you pay these people a decent wage there will be plenty of them who want to work. With all of Disney's millions this should be a priority. Rooms should be updated on a regular basis and worn carpeting and furniture needs to be replaced. Disney should be learning from Marriott they certainly are always looking at these details.
I also think they should have wireless internet connections in each room and STOP charging to use it. We all pay enough and this should be no charge. ;)

[pilferk]

I also think they should have wireless internet connections in each room and STOP charging to use it. We all pay enough and this should be no charge. ;)

I agree with a lot of the first part, but with the 2nd?

The problem is...we'd still be paying for it. With our MF. You'd not see a "room charge" for it, but we'd pay for it, all the same.

I don't mind, with DVC, them charging "extra" for internet...it keeps the charges to those who use it (like me) and not those who don't.

Now, with Disney HOTELS, I agree.....especially the convention hotels (and it looks like the Contemp is piloting something now).

[jade1]

I think the "one time offer" is not because DVC "needs" to sell OKW extensions to current members, but because DVC wants to be able to add 15 years to the current points it is holding in its own inventory, and most likely, HAS to offer current owners the same option (I do not know this for sure, I am just guessing). I think that's why it is a "one time" option, and not something you could do at any time. I think DVC wants to make OKW comparable to SSR and AKL so that it can begin offering OKW to customers who take the tour, and have a similar product. I think it is a "win win" situation for DVC, because they could then have a shiny, new product with no effort. I think TJ is right...there probably is going to be a shortage of inventory for awhile, and I think DVC is probably sitting on a significant number of OKW points (not a huge amount, but significant), and sees this as an easy, short-term solution for their impending problem.

If that is the case, DVC will happily begin ROFR'ing more OKW contracts in the resale process and resell them as "extended" contracts, and will probably have a significant chunk of extended contracts gone when 2042 rolls around. Then, the rest of the points would revert to DVC inventory, and they could rent them out to guests (unless another extension was offered....who KNOWS what will be going down in 2057...it won't be me...I'll be 88 years old!!).

I hear what you are saying but try to guess some numbers. What percent could they be holding? Even 20% would leave 80% empty rooms for the last 15 years if nobody extended. Wouldn't it be easier to rent 20% now, instead of 80% later? If the price is reasonable I am sure most would extend and the senario would work great, but if its $25 or more-you may as well add on at a new 50 year resort with a huge down payment. That way you can enjoy it now instead of when your dead.:wizard:

[pilferk]

I hear what you are saying but try to guess some numbers. What percent could they be holding? Even 20% would leave 80% empty rooms for the last 15 years if nobody extended. Wouldn't it be easier to rent 20% now, instead of 80% later? If the price is reasonable I am sure most would extend and the senario would work great, but if its $25 or more-you may as well add on at a new 50 year resort with a huge down payment. That way you can enjoy it now instead of when your dead.:wizard:

See, this is the logic that confuses me.

Pay for an OKW extension or for a new resort....and either way you're talking about using points 50 years from now. If you buy new, you're paying MORE to use points for the next 50 years. If you extend OKW, you're paying to EXTEND your contract so you can use points for 50 years.

Other than the "newness" of SSR or AKV....what's the difference? If you're going to be "dead" in 50 years for OKW use, you're going to be "dead" in 50 years for AKV use. And you still have points to use "tomorrow" in both scenarios.

With OKW, you're adding value to your contract...either for you or your heirs to use, or for you to realize upon resale.

[spiceycat]

OKW is 15 years old.

CRV has yet to be built.

AKV is being build.

the technological has changed so much in just the last 5 years - so 15 years is definitely out of date.

with the building being build - they can leave room for future changes - that OKW can't even allow.

now I like older building - but they are a bunch more work than new ones. 15 years is not old - but with all the new stuff that they can put in building today - it is.

i do love OKW - but if it were build today. It would be a lot quieter. less problems. or if done badly more problems.

[Sammie]

Long time readers of these boards will realize that tjkraz and sammie are not DVC bashers and in fact are strong supporters of the program in most instances. So when they list issues about certain areas of DVC I take them to be objective criticisms by concerned members. I don't believe there is any anti-DVC agenda on the part of these knowledgeable DVC members, just a desire to make things better by speaking up. (I do believe there are posters who have a pro-DVC agenda and defend the program in every instance by blaming all problems on guest expectations rather than questioning any move by DVC)

Having issues with certain aspects of DVC by no means indicates that one feels DVC is a horrible program. It's just the observations of someone with their eyes open. Claiming DVC is perfect doesn't do anyone (current or prospective members) any favors.

Thanks for understanding where I was going. My comments are not a bash of DVC, for those that have been on the forums for longer than a week know that I am a huge supporter of anything Disney. It takes alot for me to critize them.

And my comments were not about the quality of the Disney deluxe resorts, but more about comparing their quality to DVC. I could care less about the quality of nonDisney resorts when discussing Disney, it is a moot point to me.

What I do care about is that we have been going to Disney for over 25 years and over 8 years with DVC and it is not the same recently especially with DVC.

Disney management is much more concerned with keeping their deluxe and even moderate and value resorts clean and well maintained over the DVC ones. The carpet in the hallways at BCV would never have been allowed to get to the point it is; at the Beach Club resort. DVC resorts should be a on a similar maintenance and repair schedule.

The best service as Spiceycat said is always the new DVC resort, right now that is SSR. Soon it will be AKV. It should not be that way, they should all be equal in service. The one selling should be no better than the ones sold out. And unless you are staying at different locations, as we do, it is hard to see the difference.

I am also tired of DVC hiding behind the scapegoat of that if we repair then dues must go up. Don't believe it for a minute. They are making money hand over fist and can afford to keep the DVC resorts up to the quality they were when members bought in. Their rehab schedule is much longer than Disney resorts.

I am not against expansion but you can't sacrifice the current membership for future sales.

If the bus rumor is true and the service is anywhere near what valet is right now, believe me others will see what I am talking about.

It seems lately DVC is fine unless you have a problem and believe me I am not a picky guest, but have a problem and believe me you will soon see what I am talking about. It is more about lip service lately instead of Disney quality service.

I don't want to get rid of my DVC, I want them to listen to the thousands of members that supported them, before they became Disney's best kept secret.

[abner1776]

My guess is the price would have to be pretty low to entice people to go for the extra 15 years.

2042 is still 35 years out, so we would not even earn the benefit for another 35 years.

While it's true that the current price is in the $2-$3 range per point, having to wait 35 years for the benefit would put a huge discount on the price range.

Imagine if someone came up to you on the street and offered to sell you a one pound Hersheys bar for $2...you would be enticed to buy it...now imagine if the person said that you have to buy it now, but you won't receive the candy bar for 35 years....now how much are you willing to pay for that candy bar ?????

[Princess Stitch]

My guess is the price would have to be pretty low to entice people to go for the extra 15 years.

2042 is still 35 years out, so we would not even earn the benefit for another 35 years.

While it's true that the current price is in the $2-$3 range per point, having to wait 35 years for the benefit would put a huge discount on the price range.

Imagine if someone came up to you on the street and offered to sell you a one pound Hersheys bar for $2...you would be enticed to buy it...now imagine if the person said that you have to buy it now, but you won't receive the candy bar for 35 years....now how much are you willing to pay for that candy bar ?????

But what if they said that if you want the candy bar you have to buy it now because it won't be available in 35 years?

I think the whole "one time offer" is what's going to make alot of people extend. I've been going back and forth on whether to buy a new DVC contract or to get one through resale, but the fact that there may be an option for me to extend a resale contract is very appealing. In 35 years I'll be just shy of 60 anyhow.. hopefully I'll still be going to WDW!

[pilferk]

My guess is the price would have to be pretty low to entice people to go for the extra 15 years.

2042 is still 35 years out, so we would not even earn the benefit for another 35 years.

While it's true that the current price is in the $2-$3 range per point, having to wait 35 years for the benefit would put a huge discount on the price range.

Imagine if someone came up to you on the street and offered to sell you a one pound Hersheys bar for $2...you would be enticed to buy it...now imagine if the person said that you have to buy it now, but you won't receive the candy bar for 35 years....now how much are you willing to pay for that candy bar ?????

I think that analogy is flawed, both from a perception standpoint, and a fiscal one.

They're not saying "pay us now and in 35 years we'll give you a product" (though that may be the functional result).

They're saying "You're using our product every year...would you like to continue to use it for 15 more years than you currently will be able to". It's no different, really, than what they're selling you when you buy "new" DVC points....just at an already established/built facility.

It's more like having a yearly supply of chocolate that will run out, and the company offering to extend that supply, using today's dollars (not yesterdays or tomorrows). You realize value becuase either you or your heirs can use that chocolate OR you can sell it for more $$ because of the extended use.

I just wonder how many people honestly think Disney is going to say "Hey, give us $2500 ($10 ppt for 250 points) and we'll give you 15 extra years of vacations". Not HOPE they do, but really think they will.....

[OneMoreTry]

Why should "oh, you should just sell" be considered an acceptable response to criticism of DVC? I don't view this as a black and white issue where I'm expected to either tow the company line or hit the road.

It's not acceptable. It may be a little sarcastic, but it's a little bit sincere, too. I wouldn't have minded if you ignored it.


Which items from my list do you take exception to? Do you think the waitlist changes have improved the program?

I would need to poll a large random sample of members before I could comment on whether the changes have helped more than hurt. My single-member's view is: the wait list has always served me well.


Do you think the quality of training at Member Services has improved in recent years?

It's the same as it's been since I bought my points about 6 or 7 years ago. When did you first buy?


Do you think the website is acceptable in its present form, login errors and all?

It's way better than it was. Definitely within the "acceptable" category. I'm hoping for on line booking and wait listing. If I want up-to-date information I come here.



Do you think that DVC is being up-front with members in claiming for four years that TV upgrades and coffee tables are in the works?

I never assume management of any sort is up-front. They never will be. If you expect them to you'll be disappointed.

I don't watch TV when at DVC resorts and didn't know there had been a promise. What's wrong with the coffee tables?

They need new fake plants!!!!!!!!!


I have to agree with Sammie...more and more frequently I get the sense that DVC is just giving lip-service to issues raised by members rather than truly acting as an advocate in helping to resolve long-standing problems.

I actually thought they were doing pretty well. Except the fake plants. I realize they're up against 100,000 lips. They've always served mine pretty well the couple of times I've complained.

:wizard:

[abner1776]

I think that analogy is flawed, both from a perception standpoint, and a fiscal one.

They're not saying "pay us now and in 35 years we'll give you a product" (though that may be the functional result).

They're saying "You're using our product every year...would you like to continue to use it for 15 more years than you currently will be able to". It's no different, really, than what they're selling you when you buy "new" DVC points....just at an already established/built facility.

It's more like having a yearly supply of chocolate that will run out, and the company offering to extend that supply, using today's dollars (not yesterdays or tomorrows). You realize value becuase either you or your heirs can use that chocolate OR you can sell it for more $$ because of the extended use.

I just wonder how many people honestly think Disney is going to say "Hey, give us $2500 ($10 ppt for 250 points) and we'll give you 15 extra years of vacations". Not HOPE they do, but really think they will.....

"perception is reality" ...I tell this to my staff and boss all the time...you may think something is one way, but it all depends on how people perceive it in their minds and if they perceive it one way..that's reality to them.

I agree with some of your analysis but the fact of the matter is DVC will be asking us to fork over our cash for something we will not gain a benefit from for another 35 years. I already have something that is worth something to me until 2042, and no matter whether it's a candy bar or DVC points, what they want me to buy has no immediate value to me...thats how it will be perceived by DVC members and that is the reality....

[BWV Dreamin]

On the resale market, BWV points are equal to that of SSR now, and have 15 fewer years. So I fail to see where adding more years will inflate the resale value of the 2042 resorts. Location will continue to drive the resale values irrespective of the overall contract time. Just my opinion.

[nuts]

On the resale market, BWV points are equal to that of SSR now, and have 15 fewer years. So I fail to see where adding more years will inflate the resale value of the 2042 resorts. Location will continue to drive the resale values irrespective of the overall contract time. Just my opinion.

At some point the 15 years difference will have an impact. My prediction is that we will see a very serious drop in value for the 2042 resorts starting sometime between 2015 and 2020. Think about it...if you are 20 something at that point and are looking to buy...you would have to really entice me financially to buy into one that expires in less than 20 years (location or not). Its kind of like the stock market...managing market timing is difficult and will bite you.

[keishashadow]

On the resale market, BWV points are equal to that of SSR now, and have 15 fewer years. So I fail to see where adding more years will inflate the resale value of the 2042 resorts. Location will continue to drive the resale values irrespective of the overall contract time. Just my opinion.

Not the smaller contracts;)

& from what i've noticed 100 - 150 point BW are still listing higher...of course, considering a non-stripped contract.

if it increasingly becomes difficult to book "where you want to stay" @ the 7 month window; i expect that the resorts that seem to be popular will increase in value accordingly.

[pilferk]

"perception is reality" ...I tell this to my staff and boss all the time...you may think something is one way, but it all depends on how people perceive it in their minds and if they perceive it one way..that's reality to them.

I agree with some of your analysis but the fact of the matter is DVC will be asking us to fork over our cash for something we will not gain a benefit from for another 35 years. I already have something that is worth something to me until 2042, and no matter whether it's a candy bar or DVC points, what they want me to buy has no immediate value to me...thats how it will be perceived by DVC members and that is the reality....

Actually...I think in this case it's going to depend on how DISNEY percieves thing...not DVC members. Disney, I suppose, has to take member perception into account when pricing, but I don't think they'll do it to the extent that they'll undercut their own market, or leave money on the table for them.

[pilferk]

On the resale market, BWV points are equal to that of SSR now, and have 15 fewer years. So I fail to see where adding more years will inflate the resale value of the 2042 resorts. Location will continue to drive the resale values irrespective of the overall contract time. Just my opinion.

Because, at this point, there's no differentiation between different "types" of OKW contracts, or other 2042 resort contracts..

The minute there is, you'll see the difference in pricing.

Add to that the fact that at SOME point the 2042 resorts length of contract is GOING to become a factor....and you're adding value by extending.

[nuts]

Because, at this point, there's no differentiation between different "types" of OKW contracts, or other 2042 resort contracts..

The minute there is, you'll see the difference in pricing.

Add to that the fact that at SOME point the 2042 resorts length of contract is GOING to become a factor....and you're adding value by extending.

I would go a step further...if they offer a onetime extension...once the one time extension offer ends, those who do NOT accept it will see an immediate drop in value.

[jade1]

See, this is the logic that confuses me.

Pay for an OKW extension or for a new resort....and either way you're talking about using points 50 years from now. If you buy new, you're paying MORE to use points for the next 50 years. If you extend OKW, you're paying to EXTEND your contract so you can use points for 50 years.

Other than the "newness" of SSR or AKV....what's the difference? If you're going to be "dead" in 50 years for OKW use, you're going to be "dead" in 50 years for AKV use. And you still have points to use "tomorrow" in both scenarios.

With OKW, you're adding value to your contract...either for you or your heirs to use, or for you to realize upon resale.

Well I guess I'm even more confused then. Doesn't handing over more money to extend at OKW gain you absolutely nothing for the next 35 years? Putting that money into another resort would give you instantly more points to use immediatley AND the last 15 years in question as well. :confused3

[LoveMyDisneyCats]

I want them to listen to the thousands of members that supported them, before they became Disney's best kept secret.

Right On! I'm 100% on board with that statement! I love Disney, WDW, all things mickey...and I LOVE being able to say I "own" a piece of it. Everyone that knows me thinks I'm way to into Disney! And knowing I can go all the time is my perfect world- but I think agree some things have changed and some of the suggestions and complaints about those things are not being listened to. There are alot of us out there that will continue to support Disney and spend our hard earned $$ there, but it would be nice if our concerns and problems were addressed- or at least appeared to be addressed. Lately, it seems like the focus is on getting new members and new money instead of keeping the current members happy (which is interesting considering that they send us referral slips/postcards once a year). I realize this is just good business for them and really why should they care, they've already got us, but it would be nice considering they sold us on this DVC (or at least my family) based on the "one, big, happy mickey family" concept.

I can remember sitting in the office when my parents bought in when this first started. The CM was telling us how it's a family and she calls and checks in on her members and shares recipes...blah, blah, blah. Now, yeah, I'm not stupid, I know it was an exaggeration for the purpose of her sales pitch, BUT actually she did call and chat with the parents twice in the first two years. So that was something. Now 11 years after my parents bought and 6 years since I did, I have trouble getting rooms when I want, the buildings are becoming more run-down, and the CMs are nice-usually- instead of Disney nice all the time. It's just interesting...and now they're going back to the people that they originally sold to and want to offer an extension. I guess the recipe talk is going to be back out for that one.

[TTFN!]

Comming back to my thread to avoid troll classification.......;)

Interesting interpretations.

I was hoping for a formula like this:

OKW current resale from DVC is $95.00pp

AKV current pricing $104.00pp (or thereabouts).

Pay DVC $9.00pp plus about a $5.00 per point admin fee for next 15 years.

That would work for me, but I'd think twice before paying $35.00 a point for the extention. However, with the more detailed analytical posts that I've read, I'm afraid $35.00pp is more probable than $14.00pp.

[jade1]

[QUOTE=Princess Stitch;20342674]But what if they said that if you want the candy bar you have to buy it now because it won't be available in 35 years?
QUOTE]

The OKW candy bar currently will run out in 35 years agreed, but not DVC. If you invest the money in new points-they will be good for the next 35 years (where an extension wont be) AND the last 15 years.

[jade1]

Comming back to my thread to avoid troll classification.......;)

Interesting interpretations.

I was hoping for a formula like this:

OKW current resale from DVC is $95.00pp

AKV current pricing $104.00pp (or thereabouts).

Pay DVC $9.00pp plus about a $5.00 per point admin fee for next 15 years.

That would work for me, but I'd think twice before paying $35.00 a point for the extention. However, with the more detailed analytical posts that I've read, I'm afraid $35.00pp is more probable than $14.00pp.

250 points at $35 is $8750. You can buy 250 SSR points right now on this board for $80. Thats 110 points. Rent them at $10 a point, pay $5 in dues and make $5 a point for 35 years or $19,250. Then at that point you can start in with the last 15 years at SSR instead of OKW as planned with 110points and $20K in your pocket. Somewhere along the line you can take some of the rent money and buy points at another new resort with even longer years.

[OneMoreTry]

A couple thoughts on this issue:

:wizard: I think pretty much every corporation in the world is thinking of liquidity right now and contingency plans for how they might raise working capital if the financial markets follow a worst case scenario in the subprime mortgage "crisis." I think this is one of DVC's contingencies and really doubt it will happen unless banks really have a problem. I don't think it is the right time to offer this option.

:wizard: If they DO divide OKW into two categories, how will the "2042ers" feel about paying their dues in 2041 when some of them are going toward maintaining properties they won't own in 3 years -- and others will. I won't want to fix a roof or repaint or buy a new TV or coffee table at OKW in 2041. That's for darn sure.

[BWV Dreamin]

Because, at this point, there's no differentiation between different "types" of OKW contracts, or other 2042 resort contracts..

The minute there is, you'll see the difference in pricing.

Add to that the fact that at SOME point the 2042 resorts length of contract is GOING to become a factor....and you're adding value by extending.

What amount of value is being added by 15 years? I wonder if someone out there could amortize the value, based on current resale values, of say Boardwalk or Beach Club. What would the estimated value be at say 2032 vs. 2047? We're not talking about 40 yrs worth of time, only 15.

[erikthewise]

My completely unfounded guess is somewhere between $25 and $35 ppt.

Why?

Current DVC price per point: $104

104/50: $2.08

$2.08 * 15 years = $31.20.

We'll see how accurate that guess is if this comes to pass.

My estimate is that the current value of such an extension is closer to $10pp. $12 might be a reasonable price, $15 at a maximum. If DVC can get $30 for it, more power to them, but paying that much would be purely an act of sentiment.

[tjkraz]

I'm guessing the price will be in the neighborhood of $8 - 15 per point.

People understand the concept of Net Present Value (even if they don't know what it means.) They realize that they would be buying something that they cannot use for another 35 years--in many cases it's something that the current owner will NEVER be able to use given the individual's age.

You can't attach equal value to a 2007 point and a 2043 point.

If DVC prices it anywhere near 15/50ths of current point prices, the people who agree to extend their contract will number in the dozens.

[tvwalsh]

Using the method called the sum of the year's digits, commonly used to report depreciation, the numbers are arranged in descending order and totalled. 50+49+48 etc. The last fifteen years would represent a portion of the total value equal to 15+14+13....+2+1 =120/1250 ( the total of all the years). This is slightly more than 10%.

Therefore I would think the addition of 15 years to the OKW contracts will be offered at approximately $10.00 per point.

That is what I might be willing to pay.

[jdg345]

I wonder if you'll be able to addon at OKW for the full term then? Hmm.

[jade1]

Using the method called the sum of the year's digits, commonly used to report depreciation, the numbers are arranged in descending order and totalled. 50+49+48 etc. The last fifteen years would represent a portion of the total value equal to 15+14+13....+2+1 =120/1250 ( the total of all the years). This is slightly more than 10%.

Therefore I would think the addition of 15 years to the OKW contracts will be offered at approximately $10.00 per point.

That is what I might be willing to pay.

I agree. Something in that range would be much more logical than about 1/2 ($35) of a current SSR resale you could use or rent the whole time. I would extend BCV for $10, but thats about it-much more and it would go towards CRV or a BCV add on.

[Muushka]

I don't know how Disney does it, but they will manage to make the cost about 10% above what I will be willing to pay.
I play the game at the Disney stores all the time. i will pick up an item and play a guessing game, "What is the maximum I am willing to pay for this?" And it is usually that number plus 10%.

I won't say what I am willing to pay. I don't want to give them any clues!;)

[salmoneous]

The problem is...we'd still be paying for it. With our MF. You'd not see a "room charge" for it, but we'd pay for it, all the same.

I don't mind, with DVC, them charging "extra" for internet...i Keep in mind the reason roadside $29.99/night motels can offer free wireless internet: it's dirt cheap. Somebody priced it out and it was something like four cents / point for the installation, and less than a penny a point for ongoing service.

[BWV Dreamin]

Using the method called the sum of the year's digits, commonly used to report depreciation, the numbers are arranged in descending order and totalled. 50+49+48 etc. The last fifteen years would represent a portion of the total value equal to 15+14+13....+2+1 =120/1250 ( the total of all the years). This is slightly more than 10%.

Therefore I would think the addition of 15 years to the OKW contracts will be offered at approximately $10.00 per point.

That is what I might be willing to pay.

This is excellent information. However, it still does not reflect what the actual contract values would be on the resale market. Obviously at 2042, the value would be zero. But what would the "non-extended" 2042's estimated value vs. the "extended to 2057" contracts value be say in 10 yrs.?

[IndianaMouseLover]

This is interesting. I hope they do offer it. I also hope they will offer it to SSR owners. I would be up to shelling out the cash to extend my years no matter my age I will be in 2057, I will be 80 at that point. I am sure I will pass it on to our children.

On the other hand, I imagine as long as I take care of myself, 80 in 2057 will be different than being 80 in 2007.

[pilferk]

Well I guess I'm even more confused then. Doesn't handing over more money to extend at OKW gain you absolutely nothing for the next 35 years? Putting that money into another resort would give you instantly more points to use immediatley AND the last 15 years in question as well. :confused3

sure it would....at somewhere between $92 and $104 dollars per point. Because you'd be paying for all 50 years, not just 15 "extra".

[OneMoreTry]

I won't be needing DVC in 35 years. I have one contract and 5 kids so when my wife and I die it will be sold as part of the estate and money distributed. They can buy their own contracts at the new DVC Beijing in 2027. So for me the additional money would be only an investment.

If I pay $10 pp now and can sell my contract for $10 more in 20 years, I've wasted my money, because it would do better in a bank. If i can sell it for $25 dollars more in 20 years, that would be equivalent to what I could get in a bank, give or take. But I can do better in a balanced mutual fund. And the money is not available to me AT ALL unless I wait long enough to sell that the extra time would make a significant difference in price, which I believe will take decades not years.

So, DVC won't get money from me unless it's REAL CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP. Seems to me I'd be buying lots of air and a bit of "pixie dust."

[bluslag]

We are going to be 54 next month so I'm not sure we would even want to use DVC any longer than 2042. That is hoping we even make it till then. We really don't want to pay out any more money now then we have to. And say we did are they going to offer it for BWV and BCV's in a few years. We own at all 3 and we feel we have a good number of points. We usually take friends or family down with us and we have a great time. We always knew that the value would go down someday but will it even go faster if we are the ones that don't extend? So many things to think of when we were feeling we were all set.

[tfc3rid]

Speaking of the monetary issuesrelated to OKW and the '2042' resorts... Who's to say that the overall Annual Dues will decrease for those in the out years of our contracts...

I know it doesn't seem plausible...

[Beca]

Speaking of the monetary issuesrelated to OKW and the '2042' resorts... Who's to say that the overall Annual Dues will decrease for those in the out years of our contracts...

I know it doesn't seem plausible...

I don't understand what you are saying here....are you meaning, "Who's to say the dues will NOT decrease", or that they will decrease?

If so, why do you think they will decrease???

[OneMoreTry]

I don't understand what you are saying here....are you meaning, "Who's to say the dues will NOT decrease", or that they will decrease?

If so, why do you think they will decrease???

Why should I put away money for a new roof and new sofa in OKW in 2041?

[javamom]

So what is the collective hunch regarding what Disney will do with these resorts come 2042??? Refurb them all and sell them all over again? Plow them down and build new ones? Concert them all over to the cash ressie system???

:confused3

[spiceycat]

still think if the economy is good - VWL, BCV and BWV will become part of the hotel.

a bunch of new suites - without alot of cost to Disney.

OKW and SSR don't know. seems like they are considering continuing OKW contracts.

so maybe DVC will also extend the other DVC resorts.

[Beca]

Why should I put away money for a new roof and new sofa in OKW in 2041?

But, you are acting like you have a choice. Although I think it would be a bad move for DVC to "renovate" OKW in 2041, if DVC is going to offer extensions to OKW, they certainly COULD do a renovation if OKW is up for one.

Plus, with the cost of living rising, and the upkeep on a 50yr old resort....I seriously doubt OKW dues would decrease toward the end of the contract. I expect all of our dues will continue to rise every year.

[Maistre Gracey]

Why should I put away money for a new roof and new sofa in OKW in 2041?
I look at it like I'm rentiing a car. The car comes with a full tank of gas, and I leave it with a full tank...
The resort comes with a new couch, and I leave it with a new couch.

We've paid for exactly what we've used. :smokin:

MG

[rugrats2001]

I look at it like I'm rentiing a car. The car comes with a full tank of gas, and I leave it with a full tank...
The resort comes with a new couch, and I leave it with a new couch.

We've paid for exactly what we've used. :smokin:

MG

But those of us contemplating a purchase at OKW now DON'T get that 'new couch' to start off with.

[jade1]

But those of us contemplating a purchase at OKW now DON'T get that 'new couch' to start off with.

Then again the new couches at the new resorts are around $92 to $104, OKW is $73.

[rugrats2001]

So what is the collective hunch regarding what Disney will do with these resorts come 2042??? Refurb them all and sell them all over again? Plow them down and build new ones? Concert them all over to the cash ressie system???

:confused3

My hunch is that DVC will offer progressively less at ROFR for points that have not been extended to 2058 (or further), and that resale values will drop 60% in the next 10 to 15 years on these non-extended memberships. At the same time, Disney will purchase 2042 points dirt cheap, and re-sell them as 2058 points at full price, with no extra cost to DVC (after all, the resorts ARE already paid for, and the MF already pays ALL of the expenses).

The extensions of the contracts simply give DVC the ability to CONTINUE collecting MF, and provide the point 'owners' with a little bit more of what nearly every other time-share plan gives - ownership forever of their real-estate purchase.

When they built OKW, they sold ALL of the value of the property, plus a tidy profit - not just the value of the property less the depreciated value like an automobile lease; so the current owners have already paid for use 'in perpetuity', without receiving that particular benefit.

[rugrats2001]

Then again the new couches at the new resorts are around $92 to $104, OKW is $73.

I thought that DVC charges considerably more than $73 per point for OKW?

[jade1]

I thought that DVC charges considerably more than $73 per point for OKW?

DVC maybe does, but the drop down above of resales is much cheaper.

[rugrats2001]

DVC maybe does, but the drop down above of resales is much cheaper.

In that case, SSR should be quoted at $80 p/p

[BWV Dreamin]

Ok, here are some nagging questions about this thread. All please chime in with any comments :

1). Extending expiration time 15 years. What would benefit Disney by doing this? Raise immediate cash to help out with lack of MF's/vacancies at OKW, test the DVC population to see how many would be willing to pay for this and at what price, a reason to increase MF's, give the allusion that your contract will be more valuable in the long run compared to the upfront add on fee.
2.) What are some projected resale values based on a 15 yr. add on? No one has explored this yet.
3.) Won't there still be a market for those that want a cheaper contract? Just like with 50 pt. contracts that sell at more/pt. than longer contracts, whose to say this couldn't evolve with the 2042 contracts? The new contracts will be marketly more expensive, but whose to say 2042 will deflate 60%? Theres always that chance of getting more per point now for the 2042 contracts than the current price now, vs. the new 2057 contract price.:rolleyes1

[tjkraz]

Ok, here are some nagging questions about this thread. All please chime in with any comments :

1). Extending expiration time 15 years. What would benefit Disney by doing this? Raise immediate cash to help out with lack of MF's/vacancies at OKW...

I don't understand where you're coming from here. All of the points at OKW (at least thru 2042) have been sold. Whomever holds those points pays the dues. The dues don't need any "help."

Vacancies have no bearing on the situation. The dues cover operating expenses for the year with the assumption that the resort will be booked solid every night.

...test the DVC population to see how many would be willing to pay for this and at what price...

I think it's much more than a test. DVC can (and has) run surveys to test the market to a large degree. Extending a one-time offer isn't much of a test since there are no mulligans. If Disney were to open sales for an undetermined time and fiddle with the pricing as they attempt to reach sales goals, that would represent more of a trial-and-error effort.

...a reason to increase MF's, give the allusion that your contract will be more valuable in the long run compared to the upfront add on fee.

Dues are based upon actual operating costs at the resorts. The only possibility for adjustments here would be if Disney needed to increase the capital improvements budget to help sustain the resort beyond 2042. Such an increase, IMO, would be in the single digits (as in just a few pennies per point, if anything.)

2.) What are some projected resale values based on a 15 yr. add on? No one has explored this yet.

Nobody even knows what DVC would charge at this point. The price point many owners would ask would vary greatly depending on whether Disney tries to charge $10 vs. $25 per point for the add-on.

3.) Won't there still be a market for those that want a cheaper contract? Just like with 50 pt. contracts that sell at more/pt. than longer contracts, whose to say this couldn't evolve with the 2042 contracts? The new contracts will be marketly more expensive, but whose to say 2042 will deflate 60%? Theres always that chance of getting more per point now for the 2042 contracts than the current price now, vs. the new 2057 contract price.:rolleyes1

I'm sure there will be a market for the shorter contracts. What remains to be seen is how the forces of supply and demand influence the situation when the dust settles. For instance, if only 20% of OKW owners choose to extend their contracts yet 50% of buyers would prefer the longer contract, the sale price for the longer contracts will fetch higher rates and tend to sell much quicker.

As for the question of why DVC is considering this move, I'll just repeat what I said a few pages ago. Looking at approximate sales trends, it appears that DVC will have exhausted its supply of SSR and AKV (Jambo House) points nearly a year before Kidani Village is ready to open. Offering the extensions to OKW contracts gives DVC the ability to also extend the contracts that THEY hold (via ROFR). In effect, it would allow DVC to actively sell 50-year contracts at OKW for several months in mid-2008 leading up to the point where they can start selling Kidani Village.

Contract extension revenues would be just icing on the cake.

[BWV Dreamin]

I don't understand where you're coming from here. All of the points at OKW (at least thru 2042) have been sold. Whomever holds those points pays the dues. The dues don't need any "help."

Vacancies have no bearing on the situation. The dues cover operating expenses for the year with the assumption that the resort will be booked solid every night.



I think it's much more than a test. DVC can (and has) run surveys to test the market to a large degree. Extending a one-time offer isn't much of a test since there are no mulligans. If Disney were to open sales for an undetermined time and fiddle with the pricing as they attempt to reach sales goals, that would represent more of a trial-and-error effort.



Dues are based upon actual operating costs at the resorts. The only possibility for adjustments here would be if Disney needed to increase the capital improvements budget to help sustain the resort beyond 2042. Such an increase, IMO, would be in the single digits (as in just a few pennies per point, if anything.)



Nobody even knows what DVC would charge at this point. The price point many owners would ask would vary greatly depending on whether Disney tries to charge $10 vs. $25 per point for the add-on.



I'm sure there will be a market for the shorter contracts. What remains to be seen is how the forces of supply and demand influence the situation when the dust settles. For instance, if only 20% of OKW owners choose to extend their contracts yet 50% of buyers would prefer the longer contract, the sale price for the longer contracts will fetch higher rates and tend to sell much quicker.

As for the question of why DVC is considering this move, I'll just repeat what I said a few pages ago. Looking at approximate sales trends, it appears that DVC will have exhausted its supply of SSR and AKV (Jambo House) points nearly a year before Kidani Village is ready to open. Offering the extensions to OKW contracts gives DVC the ability to also extend the contracts that THEY hold (via ROFR). In effect, it would allow DVC to actively sell 50-year contracts at OKW for several months in mid-2008 leading up to the point where they can start selling Kidani Village.

Contract extension revenues would be just icing on the cake.

Thanks for your insightful thoughts....always enjoy reading these. Well, we don't really know that all of the points are sold, we don't know how much inventory Disney is holding to resell. And what better way to gain immediate liquid capital to start the refurbishing process?

[tjkraz]

Well, we don't really know that all of the points are sold...

No, but we do know about how SSR has been selling since its introduction. Someone here was tracking sales via the deeds that are recorded on the Orange County real estate website. As of early summer there were about 2 buildings (46 units each) left to sell at SSR. Historically it has taken them about 3 months to sell a single building.

Factor in the parallel sales at AKV and the relatively small number of rooms that are part of the first phase of sales there (around 120 units) and it's reasonable to think they will exhaust the current supply of AKV and SSR points by early-to-mid 2008, which is roughly 9-12 months before the Kidani Village buildings will begin to open. Given that there are limitations on how early a developer can begin to sell units that are still under construction, I suspect they need the 50-year contracts at OKW to supplement sales for a few months.

And what better way to gain immediate liquid capital to start the refurbishing process?

If you're referring to DVC refurbishing OKW, part of our annual dues includes contributions to a reserve fund which will be used for refurbishments and repairs at necessary intervals. Even if DVC were to discover that the accommodations needed to be refurbished on a schedule ahead of original estimates, they would respond by increasing the reserve contributions.

In other words, any funds received in return for the contract extensions goes right into Disney's pockets. They have no obligation to re-invest dollars into the properties from this point forward. The developer has to construct the original dwellings that are marketed to owners, but after the sale is complete it falls to the member dues to maintain the facility. It's no different than buying a home...you get what is presented at the sale and then down the road it's up to the new owner to replace the roof, seal the driveway, trim the hedges and so forth.

[pilferk]

Just to add: They've moved up the "fully open" timetable of Jambo (according to the members site) from May '08 to late Jan '08. My wholly unfounded assumption is they've sped up the pace because of brisk sales, and their need to add inventory to sell.

Not sure if that will mean ANYTHING in relation to Kidani's opening (I'm thinking it MAY mean we see Kidani open a bit sooner than Spring '09...maybe as early as late '08/VERY early '09)...we'll have to wait and see, but it certainly seems to support tjkraz's opinion they're going to "need inventory to sell", IMHO.

[kend58]

The source orginally quoted in the opening post for this thread has weighed in with the following additional information:


Quote starts here:
Just off the phone with a very nice and very chatty MS-Advisor.

I will not name her to protect her.

This is my first contact with her, so these are pure rumor, but very, very NICE!

1) OKW extention will be $25.00 per point, *UNLESS* you extend before 02/28/2008, take $10.00 off per point, so $15.00pp ($1.00 more than my guess).

2) OKW will add a new booking category for near Hospitality House (and possibly other categories)

3) Pool Tables will be added to some OKW GVs!!!

4) She said the CRV announcement is being delayed until SSR sells out. They are still not sold out. She is the first MS-Advisor to admit to CRV. No hints or word games, she just flat out admitted to CRV.

5) No booking categories at SSR yet. (See tjkraz, I asked for you!)

1, 2 & 3 are to be announced in next vacation magic.

Again, this is a new unproven source, but I felt like I could trust her!
Quote ends here.

FWIW I think this pricing and timing make sense from DVD point of view

[dwelty]

The source orginally quoted in the opening post for this thread has weighed in with the following additional information:


Quote starts here:
Just off the phone with a very nice and very chatty MS-Advisor.

I will not name her to protect her.

This is my first contact with her, so these are pure rumor, but very, very NICE!

1) OKW extention will be $25.00 per point, *UNLESS* you extend before 02/28/2008, take $10.00 off per point, so $15.00pp ($1.00 more than my guess).

2) OKW will add a new booking category for near Hospitality House (and possibly other categories)

3) Pool Tables will be added to some OKW GVs!!!

4) She said the CRV announcement is being delayed until SSR sells out. They are still not sold out. She is the first MS-Advisor to admit to CRV. No hints or word games, she just flat out admitted to CRV.

5) No booking categories at SSR yet. (See tjkraz, I asked for you!)

1, 2 & 3 are to be announced in next vacation magic.

Again, this is a new unproven source, but I felt like I could trust her!
Quote ends here.

FWIW I think this pricing and timing make sense from DVD point of view

Kend58, Great info. Did she say anything more about DVC at DLR announcement?

[kend58]

Kend58, Great info. Did she say anything more about DVC at DLR announcement?

I haven't heard anything new re DLR DVC - lots of discusion about Oct 1 announcement but nothing "new"

[OneMoreTry]

I look at it like I'm rentiing a car. The car comes with a full tank of gas, and I leave it with a full tank...
The resort comes with a new couch, and I leave it with a new couch.

We've paid for exactly what we've used. :smokin:

MG


But you paid for the new couch to begin with. Somebody didn't pay for it before you. That would be like having to fill up the tank at the beginning AND the end.

I'll pay for what I used, but I ain't gonna be using it after 2042. Let the next owner "buy in" to that just like I did.

[OneMoreTry]

....

I'm sure there will be a market for the shorter contracts. What remains to be seen is how the forces of supply and demand influence the situation when the dust settles. For instance, if only 20% of OKW owners choose to extend their contracts yet 50% of buyers would prefer the longer contract, the sale price for the longer contracts will fetch higher rates and tend to sell much quicker.

......

I think the effect on price will be largely determined by how it effects ROFR -- at least at this point. I predict the extended contract prices will go up a bit and the non-extended will go down a bit. I still won't waste my money on the extension.

Buying in would be all in DVC's favor. They need the cash flow and this will give them some. The present value of my $15 is worth way more in terms of what I can get in other investments. By 2042 that will be well over $100 plus it will be liquid without selling my points. I doubt my return in DVC would be worth even half that.

[BWV Dreamin]

I think the effect on price will be largely determined by how it effects ROFR -- at least at this point. I predict the extended contract prices will go up a bit and the non-extended will go down a bit. I still won't waste my money on the extension.

Buying in would be all in DVC's favor. They need the cash flow and this will give them some. The present value of my $15 is worth way more in terms of what I can get in other investments. By 2042 that will be well over $100 plus it will be liquid without selling my points. I doubt my return in DVC would be worth even half that.


Well said! We have nothing to base any return on this 15 yr. extension, yet there will be much hype about it, just as Disney wants. While some continue to call this an "investment", we all know the value at the end of the contract!

[byoung]

I would extent my BWV points.

[keys2kingdom]

The source orginally quoted in the opening post for this thread has weighed in with the following additional information:


Quote starts here:
Just off the phone with a very nice and very chatty MS-Advisor.

I will not name her to protect her.

This is my first contact with her, so these are pure rumor, but very, very NICE!

1) OKW extention will be $25.00 per point, *UNLESS* you extend before 02/28/2008, take $10.00 off per point, so $15.00pp ($1.00 more than my guess).

2) OKW will add a new booking category for near Hospitality House (and possibly other categories)

3) Pool Tables will be added to some OKW GVs!!!

4) She said the CRV announcement is being delayed until SSR sells out. They are still not sold out. She is the first MS-Advisor to admit to CRV. No hints or word games, she just flat out admitted to CRV.

5) No booking categories at SSR yet. (See tjkraz, I asked for you!)

1, 2 & 3 are to be announced in next vacation magic.

Again, this is a new unproven source, but I felt like I could trust her!
Quote ends here.

FWIW I think this pricing and timing make sense from DVD point of view


Where did you find this? I searched Tony's id over at Tagrels and couldn't locate this post. I'm assuming it's a direct quote from him, correct?

ETA: Never mind, found it! MO.com

[OneMoreTry]

I would extent my BWV points.

Yeah, but you'll probably be alive in 2052.:woohoo:

[LisaS]

Yeah, but you'll probably be alive in 2052.:woohoo:Yep, and he will still byoung.

[keys2kingdom]

Yep, and he will still byoung.

:rotfl:

Good one Lisa!

I, however, will bold.

[LisaS]

I, however, will bold.Me too!:lmao:

[OneMoreTry]

:rotfl:

Good one Lisa!

I, however, will bold.

That's the point: I will probably bdead.

[aero99]

If they offer this at VWL that would completely change my plans for DVC. I wouldn't buy CRV (if they do end up offering it). I would extend what we own and buy more!

[Muushka]

Love the byoung, bold, bdead puns :rotfl2: .

I will either bold or bdead. :goodvibes