Where is the DVC market going?

[DISNEY FIX]

Where is the DVC market going?
Would you put off a purchase for a year in hopes BCV coming down?
Will BCV come down to $90-85-80 a point?
Is buying at $98 a point crazy?
Has it ever been significantly lower?
I don't have any historical perspective to rely on, what do you guys think & what has your stratedgy been?:teacher:

[disney dumbo]

I'm no expert... we just bought in last year. But here's my 2 cents:

If you want in... do not wait!

Actually the initial buy in is a tiny percent of the value. If you were to buy points on the rental board you would be paying $12/point. I don't think the price of buying in will come down $12 in a year.

You might find a pocket of opportunity on the resale market... maybe something loaded with points.

I believe that this concept is still a "secret" as Disney likes to market it. I wish I had bought in 15 years ago!!!

[JimMIA]

Historically, DVC prices have risen. That doesn't make DVC an investment, but I don't think there has been a period where the prices went down because Disney maintains the price levels with ROFR.

I think the probability of BCV coming down to $90 is zero.

[Delaware Mike]

Historically, DVC prices have risen. That doesn't make DVC an investment, but I don't think there has been a period where the prices went down because Disney maintains the price levels with ROFR.

I think the probability of BCV coming down to $90 is zero.


Agreed, Jim.

I believe the point values would only begin to slowly drop as we approach resort "end-of-life". Once we cross some undetermined timeline, and DVC no longer supports point valuation via ROFR for a particular resort, the price per point will begin to decline.

Just my two cents (and due to inflation, it ain't even worth that... :) )

[JudyTL]

I plan to keep my OKW until I trade up for another DVC place. Really, if you get a good deal on the resale market, you can sell and buy newer ones. In 10 years your ideal home might change for you. I see Disney offering many types of vacation types homes in the future. I think we are a society that does want to vacation but might not want to worry about the upkeep of a summer home. It is aggravation. Here we get to vacation in style and go home without responsibilty back to the vacation home.

[JimMIA]

I went back and checked the ROFR thread, and I did see one fairly recent BCV sale at $90 which passed ROFR. Most of the other BCV sales are in the $93-98 range, though.

BCV is very difficult to get a good handle on because it's a small resort and there are very few contracts sold there, so there's not much ROFR history to look at.

If you decide to buy resale, remember that the most important price is NOT the lowest price you can get, but the price which will clear ROFR. If you don't clear ROFR, nothing else matters.

[dwelty]

If you decide to buy resale, remember that the most important price is NOT the lowest price you can get, but the price which will clear ROFR. If you don't clear ROFR, nothing else matters.

Very true.

[mikeandkarla]

I am currently in the ROFR stage with my resale. I consistently see posts where people say they wish they would have bought sooner. I have never heard anybody say they wish they would have waited. I think I've seen someone having bought in for like $60 point when DVC first started. You can sell OKW today for $75 - $80 point. Not a bad investment considering you have taken vacations every year and could sell remainder for more than your initial investment. I agre that the closer 2042 comes, the less you're going to be able to sell for. One option is selling your "older" contract for one that expires at a later date.

[JimMIA]

I think I've seen someone having bought in for like $60 point when DVC first started.I'm not sure, but I think I've seen a little lower than that. Seems to me I've seen $55-57 when DVC first started. I'm sure someone knows for sure.

[bwvBound]

I have never heard anybody say they wish they would have waited.While not quite the same as saying, "I wish I had waited!" expressed after purchasing too early -- there are folks here who endured a wait of months or years prior to purchase and reported they were glad they did. The best anyone can do is purchase when the timing is right for them.

[abner1776]

IMHO... people spend far too much time worrying about the purchase price and whether they should spend $92...$95...$98...$102, etc. The difference in cost is just too small to worry about. Remember...the initial purchase price is only about 30% of the total amount that you will spend over the life of the contract.

The most important items to consider are not price related... is DVC what I want ?? What resort to buy into ?? How many points should I buy ?? Can I afford this regardless of price ???

Take the pricing considerations off the table and think about you really want in a long term vacation plan.

[Maistre Gracey]

I have never heard anybody say they wish they would have waited.
I'm glad I waited. That's sort of the same as "I wish I waited."

Why? Because I purchased VWL. Nothing against OKW or BWV, but I looked at those resorts and they just didn't interest me. If I hadn't of waited, I would not own at my beloved VWL! :thumbsup2

MG

[mikesmom]

Yes, I think it will come down, but as a previous poster said, as we get to the end of life on the contract. So, all you have to do is be patient and wait... 15 years?... 20 years?.. maybe 22 years is the magic number? You really want to wait that long? And as it comes down it will be lower than DVC is selling for then. Which could be $150? or more?

Let's face it. It's not coming down any time soon or even close to soon. If you decide that DVC is right for you (and that's the big "if") the only way to save money is to buy now before it gets any higher.

[LisaS]

I've been hanging around the DVC boards for less than 2 years (about 21 months). During that time, Disney has raised the price of BCV, BWV and VWL 3 times! The resale prices and ROFR price level for BCV in particular have also risen shortly thereafter. Disney just raised the price of BCV (for new buyers) from $95 to $101! That's a $6/point increase! BWV and VWL went up the usual $3 (from $95 to $98). Given that, I don't see resale prices for BCV falling in the next year.

[Budshark]

Where is DVC going is a big question (one we ask ourselves a LOT since we are in talks to buy-in AKV).

I think it is growing exponentially and that the existing resorts will not depreciate that much if at all. Why? Because DVC will continue to grow - probably branching out into an upscale Contemporary Villa (with costs to match) and another SSR style when the time is right. To keep people buying in and growing, they have to keep ROFR. When "time" (10-15 years left) becomes a factor on the older resorts - they'll release what their intention is. And they won't turn their back on the 50-60,000 ppl who helped build the program. So I won't be surprised to see a time 10-15 years from now when the older resorts actually become desireable because of the deal DVC puts on the table for those owners to "buy-in" again when their current contracts expire in 2042...

Just my 2 cents...

Chris

[JimMIA]

IMHO... people spend far too much time worrying about the purchase price and whether they should spend $92...$95...$98...$102, etc. The difference in cost is just too small to worry about. Remember...the initial purchase price is only about 30% of the total amount that you will spend over the life of the contract.

The most important items to consider are not price related... is DVC what I want ?? What resort to buy into ?? How many points should I buy ?? Can I afford this regardless of price ???

Take the pricing considerations off the table and think about you really want in a long term vacation plan.
Excellent advice.::yes:: :thumbsup2

[DISNEY FIX]

Agreed, Jim.

I believe the point values would only begin to slowly drop as we approach resort "end-of-life". Once we cross some undetermined timeline, and DVC no longer supports point valuation via ROFR for a particular resort, the price per point will begin to decline.

Just my two cents (and due to inflation, it ain't even worth that... :) )

I figure as it approaches the "end-of-life" is when you would be reaping one of the rewards of why people join. Nobody would be able to get a stay at Disney any cheaper than what you aren't paying. Especially in 2030 dollars.

IMHO... people spend far too much time worrying about the purchase price and whether they should spend $92...$95...$98...$102, etc. The difference in cost is just too small to worry about. Remember...the initial purchase price is only about 30% of the total amount that you will spend over the life of the contract.

The most important items to consider are not price related... is DVC what I want ?? What resort to buy into ?? How many points should I buy ?? Can I afford this regardless of price ???

Take the pricing considerations off the table and think about you really want in a long term vacation plan.


Correct, but if possible, without nixing a good deal, saving a few bucks isn't a bad thing.

[disney dumbo]

As far as where the price going...
did some checking...
rack rate off season at Beach Club 1nt= roughly $355 studio or room

Say you pay $98/pt and only have 4 years left on contract = $24.50/point/year
Add todays MF approx. $5/pt = $29.50

Cost (in today's money) 12 points for studio = $354

If room rates escalate like I'm imagining they will (and I'm sure MF will go up too)... it still makes me think that even with just 4 years left on contract...
when selling your DVC contract you would probably get your $98 back and that's 30 years from now.

Of course...
all a guess.

But sure is fun to think about!

[JudyTL]

I agree with chris.

[MrErk]

I'm not sure, but I think I've seen a little lower than that. Seems to me I've seen $55-57 when DVC first started. I'm sure someone knows for sure.

Pre-sale at OKW was $48.

[mikeandkarla]

Where is DVC going is a big question (one we ask ourselves a LOT since we are in talks to buy-in AKV).

I think it is growing exponentially and that the existing resorts will not depreciate that much if at all. Why? Because DVC will continue to grow - probably branching out into an upscale Contemporary Villa (with costs to match) and another SSR style when the time is right. To keep people buying in and growing, they have to keep ROFR. When "time" (10-15 years left) becomes a factor on the older resorts - they'll release what their intention is. And they won't turn their back on the 50-60,000 ppl who helped build the program. So I won't be surprised to see a time 10-15 years from now when the older resorts actually become desireable because of the deal DVC puts on the table for those owners to "buy-in" again when their current contracts expire in 2042...

Just my 2 cents...

Chris

Rest assured that Disney probably already has figured out their game plan when the time comes(2042). They seem to leave no stone unturned. What an awesome company.

[rinkwide]

...I think the probability of BCV coming down to $90 is zero.Could we get an official comment from Dean on this subject? ;)

[drakethib]

I would buy now if you are thinking about it.

I still think the prices even for OKW will continue to rise for the next few years.

[Cruelladeville]

I'm not sure, but I think I've seen a little lower than that. Seems to me I've seen $55-57 when DVC first started. I'm sure someone knows for sure.

Jim, you are correct. When OKW was in the pre- or early construction phase, they offered points at $47. After they opened , the price went to $50. I bought in 1997 at $56 a point, showing that the points slowly rose, from 1992-97. After that, things started taking off. There are some of us that even remember Disney trying to sell Vero at $50 as a promotional thing. Those days are behind us, though. Prices have NEVER gone down, and won't until we get closer to the end.:wizard:

[CR88]

Here is an interesting link to a historical table of DVC prices.

http://www.****************/DVCPriceHistory.html

[CR88]

oops, I guess the website got blocked out. But it is an interesting link if you find it. ;)

[M&Mwish]

Help I can't find the link. I'd love to see this chart. Please let me know!! Thanks, Michele

[disney dumbo]

Interesting!
Thanks for posting the site...
I found it by doing a google search for
DVCPriceHistory.html

M&Mwish, maybe you can find it that way, too.
(I don't think I know how to post it on this site.)

[tom401]

It is funny - while the resale market 'acts' like a free market - it really is controlled by disney through the ROFR process. You need to think like them. As long as the BCV, Boardwalk, etc are nice and desirable as a home resort for buyers, the price will stay up - I am sure Disney has (and will for years) plenty of people willing to buy at Beach Club vs Animal Kingdom - only because of the 11 month window.

[CR88]

Interesting!
Thanks for posting the site...
I found it by doing a google search for
DVCPriceHistory.html

M&Mwish, maybe you can find it that way, too.
(I don't think I know how to post it on this site.)

No problem. It is pretty interesting to see the rapid price increases. Not sure why that site is blocked though.

[Dean]

It's likely the 2042 resorts are at or near a peak and will start to decrease in value over the new few years. They will also drift apart from the resorts with a later RTU. The smaller more in demand resorts will obviously continue to be higher than those more easily found resale. Expect AKV and any newer high demand resorts to take the course of the current higher demand resorts. Obvioiusly market forces, the retail price and ROFR will all affect specifics but I think you can count on the generalities I've posted. By comparison SSR will start to drift away from OKW/VB/HH and that the same will happen for the more in demand resorts.

[Mickmse2002]

So you're all making me think I should sell my BWV points that I paid $65 for and cash-in while they are near their peak.

[CarolA]

I bought OKW at $58 a point (re-sale) That contract will probably go on the market this summer. With my VAK purchase I have more points then I need (want is a different matter LOL!) Since I won't sell my BCV and the other contracts (SSR and VAK) have longer expirations, it makes the most sense to sell OKW....
I think BCV is near it's peak, but I also think that if you want that location for times like Food & Wine, early December etc that 11 month window is vital so I will keep those points regardless of the resale price. I won't be happy if during Food & Wine I have to stay at SSR (Which I do enjoy at other times.)

[Maistre Gracey]

The early resorts may start to drift, but I doubt by a whole lot. It really depends if you adjust for inflation. If you look at a raw number, the number will likely not decrease all that much, even at the very end. Of course, once you adjust for inflation, that "number" will not be worth what it is today.

All that said, there is still 35 years left on the early resorts.
I think the 'ole fellas have a few good years left in them before we send 'em out to pasture... ;)

MG

[Dean]

So you're all making me think I should sell my BWV points that I paid $65 for and cash-in while they are near their peak.
I think it depends on your future and long term plans. Anyone planning to sell in the next few years should likely start to consider selling. Anyone planning to keep until the end likely shouldn't care very much. Fortunately barring a major issue financially that affects all our memberships, the changes should be slow over time.

Having said that I added on a AKV and I currently have a contract on my OKW contract. I will likely sell my BWV contract in a few years. But part of my plan was to downsize.

[Mickmse2002]

I think it depends on your future and long term plans. Anyone planning to sell in the next few years should likely start to consider selling. Anyone planning to keep until the end likely shouldn't care very much. Fortunately barring a major issue financially that affects all our memberships, the changes should be slow over time.

Having said that I added on a AKV and I currently have a contract on my OKW contract. I will likely sell my BWV contract in a few years. But part of my plan was to downsize.

My only real reason to sell is that I don't like the resort. I would probably turn around and re-purchase at a different resort with the later expiration.

[childsplay]

Having said that I added on a AKV and I currently have a contract on my OKW contract. I will likely sell my BWV contract in a few years. But part of my plan was to downsize.

I'm surprised to hear that you added at AKV, I was under the impression you were going to downsize your interest (to a minimum number of points just to retain some of the perks and ease of use that comes with ownership ....transfers and such) and just trade into DVC using your other timeshares? Have your plans changed?

[Dean]

My only real reason to sell is that I don't like the resort. I would probably turn around and re-purchase at a different resort with the later expiration.
It's hard to justify selling to rebuy about the same number of points. Even if you can't get what you want consistently such as SV or BW view at BWV or BCV 2 queens in the second, the price difference is significant.

I'm surprised to hear that you added at AKV, I was under the impression you were going to downsize your interest (to a minimum number of points just to retain some of the perks and ease of use that comes with ownership ....transfers and such) and just trade into DVC using your other timeshares? Have your plans changed?
And that is the long range plan. The problem is that I don't currently own anything that would have worked without adding on or buying something else. One of my options was simply keeping the BWV points and renting them out when I didn't need them. Contrary to what some believe, I would rather not rent and only do so as a secondary issue. I also believe that AKV will have a much better long term value in terms of both $$$ value and our personal use.

[M&Mwish]

CR88 and DisneyDumbo

Thanks! I was able to get the DVC History Chart! Exactly what we were looking for! Thanks, Michele

[YoMickey]

Hmmm. Interesting question. It never really crossed my mind.

I'm 38 with 3 kids under 7 years old. I'll be in my 70's when the BCV contract is up.

We bought it to use it. It will not be rented. It will be used by us or given to relatives.

Only regret is not buying in sooner.:beach: Paid $90/point 1 year ago.

We'll be there in 2 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and again in December and again in Feb. of 2008!!!!!!!!!

Potential future buyer of any monorail DVC.

[disney dumbo]

The early resorts may start to drift, but I doubt by a whole lot. It really depends if you adjust for inflation. If you look at a raw number, the number will likely not decrease all that much, even at the very end. Of course, once you adjust for inflation, that "number" will not be worth what it is today.

All that said, there is still 35 years left on the early resorts.
I think the 'ole fellas have a few good years left in them before we send 'em out to pasture... ;)

MG

I agree! The resorts obviously will have a more complicated price structure... tied to years left, theme popularity, MF... but I believe they all will continue to rise in price.

What effects DVC vacation spending in a negative way?
gas prices? most people will still save money other ways to go on a vacation.
terrorism? maybe you wouldn't travel out of the US... or fly... or cruise... but many people would still drive to Disney with hopes that Disney has upgraded security.
a Disney problem? Disney has too much invested... with hopefully enough safe guards to insure any problem would be kept minimal.

I certainly hope none of the above happens!

What effects DVC vacation spending in a positive way?
baby boomers! they are retiring... wanting to take money out of the stock market or retirement accounts... and having more time to enjoy vacations... more time to be cautious with money... and selective enough to enjoy superior accommodations.
economy! seems that more people these days have more money to spend than ever... wish I knew how that's done! :)
fear of terrorism! same song... different verse... may not go out of US... but still want a vacation. May not go to Africa... but sure can go to AKV!
Disney being Disney! More vacation diversity per acre than any place on Earth. I canNOT imagine it slowing down.
secret getting out! I know Disney likes to market this way... but I REALLY believe it to be true. I was one of those brainwashed people that thought timeshare purchases were a bad way to spend money. I avoided the DVC booth forever. I'm a scam-a-phobic. Only through this board did I learn the wonderful benefits!!!

DVC is a very unique situation. Disney's ROFR I'm sure helps support the price. Disney being in the hotel business... they aren't going to let a great deal get by them. They can buy the contracts and rent them and make money! Then sell them again when they get their price. It's win-win for them.

And for some strange reason... if we are in the club... I believe it's win-win for us too!:yay:

[Budshark]

secret getting out! I know Disney likes to market this way... but I REALLY believe it to be true. I was one of those brainwashed people that thought timeshare purchases were for idiots. I avoided the DVC booth forever. I'm a scam-a-phobic. Only through this board did I learn the wonderful benefits!!!

This is funny to me because this was my exact attitude... :lmao:

We went in February for my first time ever (I'm a left coaster so I only knew Disneyland).

Kept seeing DVC booths and signs. Kept thinking SCAM SCAM SCAM. Then one day at MGM my wife and daughter went to the bathroom and I walked over to the booth... interesting. That night, went to DTD and looked at the booth by the Lego shop. Hmm, interesting, but SCAM! Has to be a catch.

When we got home they called and we let them send us the information - liking the no pressure approach, maybe not a scam. Got the detail, did the math, called some family, and bought last night. Its unique in the approach. We get what we want (more time at Disney in comfortable, spacious on property rooms) and they get what they want (more traffic from us and spending in the parks and restaurant).

Everyone Wins! :cool1:

Except that part where we keep saying we should've done this sooner... And I still think the older resorts will have their price protected and when you get less than 10 years it will be known what options owners will have when their contracts expire (and I'm sure they will be enticing options...)

Chris

[Dean]

I think it's interesting how many members are naive enough to think the 2042 resorts will hold their value even until 10 years out. As for the idea that DVC wants these rooms to rent out, I doubt that's reality. They can only rent about 75% of the ones they get now. The only way they could boost that would be to use their points to reserve high demand times.

[Maistre Gracey]

I think it's interesting how many members are naive enough to think the 2042 resorts will hold their value even until 10 years out. As for the idea that DVC wants these rooms to rent out, I doubt that's reality. They can only rent about 75% of the ones they get now. The only way they could boost that would be to use their points to reserve high demand times.
Please don't beat around the bush. If you think I'm wrong, say so.
We have gone round about this before, and I'm happy to go again.

You see Dean, as long as I've been on these boards, I've never seen any give on your side. If the search function worked, I would find the post where you "scolded" me for a differing opinion.

You know, you have a lot of knowledge, and provide a lot of good, useful info here, but you are not ALWAYS right.
Once you make your mind up on something, Jesus himself could descend from the heavens to dispute you, and somehow you would spin a rule to support your viewpoint.

Just a little friendly advice: Other people here are pretty smart too; You are not the only one.
At somepoint, you might want to give a little credence to others viewpoints.

Perhaps you would have made a good lawyer istead of a physician.. ;)
(Not implying you are not a good physician. I'm sure you are good with that profession as well).

MG

[Dean]

Please don't beat around the bush. If you think I'm wrong, say so.
We have gone round about this before, and I'm happy to go again.

You see Dean, as long as I've been on these boards, I've never seen any give on your side. If the search function worked, I would find the post where you "scolded" me for a differing opinion.

You know, you have a lot of knowledge, and provide a lot of good, useful info here, but you are not ALWAYS right.
Once you make your mind up on something, Jesus himself could descend from the heavens to dispute you, and somehow you would spin a rule to support your viewpoint.

Just a little friendly advice: Other people here are pretty smart too; You are not the only one.
At somepoint, you might want to give a little credence to others viewpoints.

Perhaps you would have made a good lawyer istead of a physician.. ;)
(Not implying you are not a good physician. I'm sure you are good with that profession as well).

MG
I apologize if it came across that way, my post wasn't aimed at you but more at the general tone of both this and past similar threads. One is entitled to believe anything they want and one is entitled to think those belief's are right or wrong. But one of the problems is that many of the members here know nothing but DVC and what's posted on this board, hardly a well rounded view. Many also are blinded by Disney and DVC in general. If I feel I'm correct and have more knowledge than most here, what should I say? As far as changing my mind, I don't set my mind without real information and if hard evidence is provided to the contrary, I'll gladly change my mind.

[ebenmax]

I am going to change the subject a bit but it still relates to the topic. . .
How do you think CRV (if it happens) will impact VWL. I know lots of people love VWL just because they love the theming and other features, but I am sure that there are others who love it for its location to MK. Do you think CRV will have an adverse effect on VWL's value?

Just wondering. . .

Ellen

[Dean]

I am going to change the subject a bit but it still relates to the topic. . .
How do you think CRV (if it happens) will impact VWL. I know lots of people love VWL just because they love the theming and other features, but I am sure that there are others who love it for its location to MK. Do you think CRV will have an adverse effect on VWL's value?

Just wondering. . .

EllenAs I've posted before, it is my opinion that any destination resort with a later expiration will negatively affect prices of all the 2042 resorts. They will highlight the difference in expiration and over time likely drive down the prices of all the 2042 resorts faster than would have happened without the later resorts. Of course there are other factors such as the economy, demand of the resort, availability of contracts, ROFR prices and the age of the resort which translates to a degree into the price paid.

[disney dumbo]

I think it's interesting how many members are naive enough to think the 2042 resorts will hold their value even until 10 years out. As for the idea that DVC wants these rooms to rent out, I doubt that's reality. They can only rent about 75% of the ones they get now. The only way they could boost that would be to use their points to reserve high demand times.

Guess I'm a full-fledged member of the DVC Naive Club! :cheer2:

I am definitely naive enough to think 75% rental is a good occupancy rate for Disney (if you own any resort rental properties... you'd probably be pleased at 75% too). Just think about all that extra money Disney gets from people staying in those villas... Add in their option to sell anytime... Disney is super smart!

Then simple minded (I'll give you another name to call me) naive me... I just have to divide it out... $98point/10yrs= $9.80 x 12(lowest studio pt/night)= $117.60

No way to guess what MF will be... can only use todays which all are under $5 x 12/pts/studio = $60.00 Total cost for DVC member $177.60/studio

No way to guess what room rates will be... can only use todays... $354.00

Let's see... if DVC will not hold it's value at 10 years out... then MF would have to increase 294% without room rates going up at all.

Now would that make me 294% naive???:teacher:

[squidmo]

I think the outcome in 2042 will depend on whether Disney is still selling new properties at that time. If they are, I think they would pretty much have to offer some sort of attractive repurchase offer to current members, and this would keep prices steady, or slowly declining on the older contracts. Otherwise the reality of contracts expiring would cause potential members at the new properties to think twice about purchasing. However, if Disney stops building new resorts, then whenever they discontinue ROFR, I would expect prices to drop dramatically. My guess is that at this point, even Disney doesn’t know which way things will go. I think it will depend on whether they really decide to take the jump into the larger world (there is a limit to how much they can expand in WDW, and even DL), and how it ends up working out for them.

[JimC]

Help I can't find the link. I'd love to see this chart. Please let me know!! Thanks, Michele

Here is a point pricing history (http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=7135655&postcount=12).

[disney dumbo]

Article in LA Times mentions possible new park, additional DVC, speciality park like Discovery Cove in Orlando. Also mentions additional DVC resorts being considered in Anaheim, Hawaii, Mexico and the Caribbean.

"Is Disney Ready to Make Big Thunder"

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/california/la-me-disney22mar22,1,7317391.story?page=1&coll=la-headlines-pe-california

Great article posted on the DVC-Mousecellaneous board that lends itself to this discussion too.

Here's a few interesting quotes from the newspaper article:

"In Anaheim, there's no shortage of demand. Disney's three hotels — the original Disneyland Hotel, Paradise Pier and the Grand Californian — are operating at an extraordinary 93% occupancy. Citywide occupancy rates hover around 72%."

"Among the first additions to a revamped resort is likely to be the Disney Vacation Club, which allows members to buy into time-share properties. Minimum membership is $16,400. Disney has eight locations either built or under construction, including six at Walt Disney World, and others in Vero Beach, Fla., and Hilton Head, S.C. Membership has doubled since 2000, with more than 108,000 member families.

"We feel confident that there is still room to grow," Jay Rasulo, chairman of Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, said in a recent speech to investors. "The time-share industry is huge and expanding, and families will still look to Disney when they think of their vacations."

In addition to Anaheim, Hawaii, Mexico and the Caribbean have been mentioned as potential new destinations."

Go Disney! "Amaze me" too!!!!!!:cool1:

[Mickmse2002]

It's hard to justify selling to rebuy about the same number of points. Even if you can't get what you want consistently such as SV or BW view at BWV or BCV 2 queens in the second, the price difference is significant.


Dean, sorry for the delay but I did want to get back to this question because I am still looking at options. If I sell my 200 BWV points (which we never use at BWV) at 80'ish a point and can then turn around and buy SSR re-sale at roughly the same price wherein is the price difference? Am I thinking this through the wrong way? It seems to me that the price would be a "wash" and I would get the extra 12 years?

[Dean]

Dean, sorry for the delay but I did want to get back to this question because I am still looking at options. If I sell my 200 BWV points (which we never use at BWV) at 80'ish a point and can then turn around and buy SSR re-sale at roughly the same price wherein is the price difference? Am I thinking this through the wrong way? It seems to me that the price would be a "wash" and I would get the extra 12 years?I think you are looking at it wrong. The price difference is relative of course. In this example you'd have to rebuy SSR at $69-70 per point to "break even" compared to $80 sale price at SSR assuming you went through a broker. The best you could hope to do would be to break even and likely you'd lose a few hundred $$$ and end up with something currently worth less than what you have now. Think of it in reverse. If you owned SSR and wanted to sell to buy BWV, what would the current difference be? Selling BWV simply to rebuy at SSR would not be a smart decision IMO. Look what you can do with BWV points that you cannot do with SSR including BW view and SV including rentals. You can then use your points to stay at SSR almost anytime for essentially any unit type including a 3 BR most of the year. If I were in this situation I'd just hold pat. BWV may still go up a little for a few years and when it starts to fall it will do so slowly unless the bottom drops out of everything. IF I wanted to sell a 2042 resort to rebuy, I'd only do so in limited circumstances. To downsize, as in my case, to move to a resort with a later expiration that also gave me something else I couldn't get otherwise (AKV is the only resort that fits here currently) or to buy at a resort that I simply had to have most every time and couldn't get consistently with what I already owned.

In spite of the price difference, I feel AKV has the best long term return/value potential, CRV will be there too if it happens.

[tiaquessa]

OK- As far as I know, the memberships all end around 2042, and 2050? for the SSR. Is Disney planning any new DVC resorts in the near or distant future? Also, what will happen to all the existing DVC resorts after the memberships expire? I was just wondering if they are going to fix them up, and sell them as DVC again.

[rinkwide]

...I feel AKV has the best long term return/value potential...The place is gonna' have some issues: remote location, abundance of rooms, narrower theme appeal, limited dining & entertainment - not to mention you can get deep discounted rates (sub $200) for AKL nearly any time of year. It's return potential will be alright but the Grand Californian will be the real DVC goldmine.

[Dean]

The place is gonna' have some issues: remote location, abundance of rooms, narrower theme appeal, limited dining & entertainment - not to mention you can get deep discounted rates (sub $200) for AKL nearly any time of year. It's return potential will be alright but the Grand Californian will be the real DVC goldmine.Prices are the same as WL almost line for line and room for room. Personally I think you underestimate the demand as a DVC ownership. It tends to have a few more available discounts just because it's larger I think. Side by side with ending dates the same I'd put BCV & BWV as about equal demand with AKV & VWL about the same and just behind. But as it stands now AKV will be the only destination resort with a later ending date and SSR has proven that is a powerful incentive. Time will tell where things layer out.

[CarolA]

The place is gonna' have some issues: remote location, abundance of rooms, narrower theme appeal, limited dining & entertainment - not to mention you can get deep discounted rates (sub $200) for AKL nearly any time of year. It's return potential will be alright but the Grand Californian will be the real DVC goldmine.

And will the prices stay that low with the VOLUME of rooms that they are losing? Plus you can't get a Savannah view for the sub $200 rate. Those rooms go for more now trust me I have tried. There are folks like me who won't stay there without a Savannah view!

[tomandrobin]

I know that the 2042 end date is set first six disney resorts. I know that the contracts are to expire and revert back to Disney. I can see Disney selling VB and HH at that time, but what about the on-site resorts. What if DVC decides to extend expiration for 25 years, for a fee of course. Or what if DVC starts to limit members of the 2042 resorts to just staying at each respective home resort. Wouldn't either of these scenerios help protect the free fall of prices on the existing resort?

[Dean]

I know that the 2042 end date is set first six disney resorts. I know that the contracts are to expire and revert back to Disney. I can see Disney selling VB and HH at that time, but what about the on-site resorts. What if DVC decides to extend expiration for 25 years, for a fee of course. Or what if DVC starts to limit members of the 2042 resorts to just staying at each respective home resort. Wouldn't either of these scenerios help protect the free fall of prices on the existing resort?It would depend on specifics, in many scenarios the prices would be negatively affected. My initial thought a few years ago was that DVC would offer extensions but after about 6-8 months I changed my mind and remain convinced that this is very unlikely. For DVC to be able to justify it they need to have likely somewhere in the range of 70-80% of the then current members to extend. A percentage likely only possible for a free or token extension, say $10 per point or so. And if extensions are offered, it's likely they'd be no later than the then current ending date, currently 2057. Limiting members to home resort only would negatively affect MOST resorts and contracts, esp OKW, HH, VB and later possibly SSR.

[rinkwide]

...as it stands now AKV will be the only destination resort with a later ending date and SSR has proven that is a powerful incentive...With you to a point, I just think that at WDW, location trumps all....And will the prices stay that low with the VOLUME of rooms that they are losing?...With the entire complex GAINING 500+ units - adjusted for inflation - yes....Plus you can't get a Savannah view for the sub $200 rate. Those rooms go for more now trust me I have tried.... I've booked a few AP rates there and every time I've been magically upgraded to savanna. Dumb luck I guess.

[CarolA]

I also think the "upgrade" chances at AK are going down. If you book a standard room at ALK I doubt you are going to get upgraded to a studio at VAK and if there are fewer rooms with Savannah view your chances of the "dumb luck" upgrade get smaller. For me the risk has never been worth it as I know I would be MISERABLE in a standard or pool view room there. I won't pay for a view anyplace else at Disney, but....

[Dean]

With you to a point, I just think that at WDW, location trumps all.I don't disagree in general terms of "location" and I don't think you are overestimating location in terms of BCV or BWV but feel you are underestimating Animal Kingdom which I'd put equivalent to VWL. I also think the room types will give it a big push much as BWV gets from the SV and BW view units. I also feel that a DVC at AK will "put it on the map" so to speak. Time will tell.

[tacomaranch]

We just bought a resale from Tom at the TTS and it is at OKW. I did question myself as the life of the contract vs buying direct from DVC at the $86 for SSR but in the end we love OKW and really don't want anything else.

Heck, I will be dead in 20 years and I don't think I will laying in my grave wondering about the years left on my contract.:cutie:

We are happy to have bought just this year and will sell when the time is right and we don't have the health to go back to WDW. Our DS has special needs so we will just leave the money back to him.

DVC is not for an investment of money but an investment in family.

[bongo59]

i bought in in 1991, and we are now at Vero Beach now..........we paid 45 dollars a point back then. When we bought into BCV it was the first week at 65 dollars. It has never come down to that again and i doubt it will

[bongo59]

Pre-sale at OKW was $48.that does not include the lifetime passes some of us got.................for joining early

[Slakk]

And will the prices stay that low with the VOLUME of rooms that they are losing? Plus you can't get a Savannah view for the sub $200 rate. Those rooms go for more now trust me I have tried. There are folks like me who won't stay there without a Savannah view!

Exactly, with DVC is taking rooms away from the existing hotel rooms which should make prices go up for what is left.

[LarryKeith]

I bought OKW at $58 a point (re-sale) That contract will probably go on the market this summer. With my VAK purchase I have more points then I need (want is a different matter LOL!) Since I won't sell my BCV and the other contracts (SSR and VAK) have longer expirations, it makes the most sense to sell OKW....
I think BCV is near it's peak, but I also think that if you want that location for times like Food & Wine, early December etc that 11 month window is vital so I will keep those points regardless of the resale price. I won't be happy if during Food & Wine I have to stay at SSR (Which I do enjoy at other times.)


I just bought 100 AKV pts. and keep wondering if I should just use the points to extend me BCV stays. I would have a hard time being convinced to sell them to buy a resort with more years on contract. It is just like going home, geez I can't wait till august to go home.

[LarryKeith]

But one of the problems is that many of the members here know nothing but DVC and what's posted on this board, hardly a well rounded view. Many also are blinded by Disney and DVC in general. If I feel I'm correct and have more knowledge than most here, what should I say? As far as changing my mind, I don't set my mind without real information and if hard evidence is provided to the contrary, I'll gladly change my mind.[/QUOTE]


How many DVC nightmares have you heard, reading this you would think that a person couldn't post a negative revue on these boards. I'm not talking about renting pts or some issue involving something outside of the mouse. But I believe that DVC is a great business for everyone involved. If people were having less than adequate experiences with DVC I think it would dominate these boards. As far as people looking through rose colored glasses, its because the Magic is real. when I bought DVC it was like hitting a lottery. Imagine a Timeshare thats honest and real, no BBB alerts, a room thats better than you ever could imagine, in a place thats better than you can imagine, at a price thats affordable for most families. I have to greatly disagree with your comment. And this list should be enough evidence to change your mind.

[Starr W.]

Exactly, with DVC is taking rooms away from the existing hotel rooms which should make prices go up for what is left.


I like to check the WDWTC website to see what is available in "regular" reservations, also check on Expedia. Now I usually give myself a 3+month window, but you can usually get a room at AKL. WDWTC always recommends to me the GF:confused3 .

Like CarolA, I won't stay unless I get the savannah view(what's the point to AKL if you don't).

[rinkwide]

...DVC is taking rooms away from the existing hotel rooms which should make prices go up for what is left.Maybe, but only temporarily.

The addition of 500 plus DVC rooms to the AK complex will create new factors that will tend to keep Lodge pricing depressed. First, many AKL regulars will be absorbed into the DVC program which will free up Lodge rooms. Also, a fair portion of the new DVC complex will remain in CRO inventory. As well, existing DVC members won't be allowed to stay in Lodge rooms on points anymore. And finally, rooms in the new complex will be available for rent via DVC members at greatly reduced pricing.

When you combine these factors with it's narrowly appealing theme and the resort's isolated nature I think it's safe to say that AKL will remain the discount deluxe for the foreseeable future.

[Maistre Gracey]

that does not include the lifetime passes some of us got.................for joining early
Lifetime? I always thought it was for a finite period. :smokin:

MG

[Dean]

How many DVC nightmares have you heard, reading this you would think that a person couldn't post a negative revue on these boards. I'm not talking about renting pts or some issue involving something outside of the mouse. But I believe that DVC is a great business for everyone involved. If people were having less than adequate experiences with DVC I think it would dominate these boards. As far as people looking through rose colored glasses, its because the Magic is real. when I bought DVC it was like hitting a lottery. Imagine a Timeshare thats honest and real, no BBB alerts, a room thats better than you ever could imagine, in a place thats better than you can imagine, at a price thats affordable for most families. I have to greatly disagree with your comment. And this list should be enough evidence to change your mind.Remember you're on a Disney oriented board. Those that weren't happy have sold and moved on. There have certainly been many issues posted on this board, many appropriate and many related to unrealistic expectations. To be honest, I think I hear far more issues with DVC than I do Marriott or similar companies overall. And while DVC resorts are nice, the idea that they are nicer than all else is simply untrue. resorts side by side there are a number of resorts that many would consider even nicer than the DVC resorts. And there are a large group of people that actually PREFER to stay off property. I'm not negative on DVC, just realistic. DVC is my first love but it's not a perfect system.

[3DisneyKids]

that does not include the lifetime passes some of us got.................for joining early

I'm sure that you mean the free park passes that you got the first several years to use during your stays. These were not lifetime passes. Unless I totally missed something???? Anyone?

[3DisneyKids]

Maybe, but only temporarily.

The addition of 500 plus DVC rooms to the AK complex will create new factors that will tend to keep Lodge pricing depressed. First, many AKL regulars will be absorbed into the DVC program which will free up Lodge rooms. Also, a fair portion of the new DVC complex will remain in CRO inventory. As well, existing DVC members won't be allowed to stay in Lodge rooms on points anymore. And finally, rooms in the new complex will be available for rent via DVC members at greatly reduced pricing.

When you combine these factors with it's narrowly appealing theme and the resort's isolated nature I think it's safe to say that AKL will remain the discount deluxe for the foreseeable future.

And let's also remember that AKL was having a VERY hard time filling to begin with. It was rarely at capacity.

[JLS]

How do people get some of the information posted here, including info that Disney was having trouble keeping the AKL booked to capacity? I am not doubting the information, just curious as to the source.

The biggest problem that I see with the VAK is the increased demand for the restaurants. Boma, in particular, is almost always a mob scene, with hour waits even early in the evening without a reservation. Even with a resevation we nearly always wait to eat. I know VAK is building another restaurant - I hope its huge and really excellent like Boma, or Boma will be overrun by the new capacity.

I also hope they build a main VAK pool that is much larger than the main pool at Saratoga, which is, IMO, way too small for a complex that size.

I am debating buying VAK points, but we already have 300 points at BCV, and I am interested in buying into another nice system like Hyatt Vacation Club to give other vacation options besides Orlando, as I don't think trading DVC offers the best value. And we LOVE BCV so much that I'm not sure we would want to stay for a week at VAK.

[JPC]

:surfweb: How do people get some of the information posted here, including info that Disney was having trouble keeping the AKL booked to capacity? I am not doubting the information, just curious as to the source.

The biggest problem that I see with the VAK is the increased demand for the restaurants. Boma, in particular, is almost always a mob scene, with hour waits even early in the evening without a reservation. Even with a resevation we nearly always wait to eat. I know VAK is building another restaurant - I hope its huge and really excellent like Boma, or Boma will be overrun by the new capacity.

I also hope they build a main VAK pool that is much larger than the main pool at Saratoga, which is, IMO, way too small for a complex that size.

I am debating buying VAK points, but we already have 300 points at BCV, and I am interested in buying into another nice system like Hyatt Vacation Club to give other vacation options besides Orlando, as I don't think trading DVC offers the best value. And we LOVE BCV so much that I'm not sure we would want to stay for a week at VAK.

Abouy 99.9% call me before they post just to make sure the facts are straight.

[Starr W.]

How do people get some of the information posted here, including info that Disney was having trouble keeping the AKL booked to capacity? I am not doubting the information, just curious as to the source.

The biggest problem that I see with the VAK is the increased demand for the restaurants. Boma, in particular, is almost always a mob scene, with hour waits even early in the evening without a reservation. Even with a resevation we nearly always wait to eat. I know VAK is building another restaurant - I hope its huge and really excellent like Boma, or Boma will be overrun by the new capacity.

I also hope they build a main VAK pool that is much larger than the main pool at Saratoga, which is, IMO, way too small for a complex that size.

I am debating buying VAK points, but we already have 300 points at BCV, and I am interested in buying into another nice system like Hyatt Vacation Club to give other vacation options besides Orlando, as I don't think trading DVC offers the best value. And we LOVE BCV so much that I'm not sure we would want to stay for a week at VAK.


I personally go on WDW online booking and Expedia and put in dates at various times(holidays mostly) usually a couple of months out. I can always get a room at AKL or GF 2-3 months from the holiday.

[jade1]

As far as where the price going...
did some checking...
rack rate off season at Beach Club 1nt= roughly $355 studio or room

Say you pay $98/pt and only have 4 years left on contract = $24.50/point/year
Add todays MF approx. $5/pt = $29.50

Cost (in today's money) 12 points for studio = $354

If room rates escalate like I'm imagining they will (and I'm sure MF will go up too)... it still makes me think that even with just 4 years left on contract...
when selling your DVC contract you would probably get your $98 back and that's 30 years from now.


ITA.

What will BCV (or any older DVC's) sell or rent for in 2041? Even 1 year left might be worth $20 a point (or more)-meaning a studio during the week would rent for $250 a night-(maybe even $1,000 by then). What about with 2 years left-$40?, how about 10 years left-$100? Even with 10 years left, buying at $100 plus 10 years of dues at $10 would be $200 a point over 10 years or $20 a year per point-that may be an incredible deal if rooms are closer to $500 or $1,000 a night and this way they are only $250.

[Dean]

ITA.

What will BCV (or any older DVC's) sell or rent for in 2041? Even 1 year left might be worth $20 a point (or more)-meaning a studio during the week would rent for $250 a night-(maybe even $1,000 by then). What about with 2 years left-$40?, how about 10 years left-$100? Even with 10 years left, buying at $100 plus 10 years of dues at $10 would be $200 a point over 10 years or $20 a year per point-that may be an incredible deal if rooms are closer to $500 or $1,000 a night and this way they are only $250.The last 2-3 years I doubt they will even be worth the closing and maint fees. My thoughts are that we're near the top for the 2042 resorts. I feel those that think they'll just keep going up related to hotel costs are kidding themselves. Timeshares rarely track hotel costs very well, even for places like Marriott.

[DVCPAT]

The last 2-3 years I doubt they will even be worth the closing and maint fees. My thoughts are that we're near the top for the 2042 resorts. I feel those that think they'll just keep going up related to hotel costs are kidding themselves. Timeshares rarely track hotel costs very well, even for places like Marriott.


If Disney is going strong in 2040, why would the resorts value not correlate with Disney’s success? DVC is simply a WDW accommodation, why wouldn’t its value be directly tied to WDW room rates?

[joestein]

I think that some of the people on this board are blinded by Disney. Disney cares only about one thing and that is $$$$$$. They provide the "Magic" and so forth because they know that people will pay for it.

When the RTU period ends for the DVC resorts, there will be no extension, and I will tell you why, because there is no profit in extending the term.

There is only a limited amount of people who will pay the exhorbanet (sp?) amounts that DVC charges. DVC tends to have one resort at least half full before it starts another. As they keep building resorts they will run out of people who are willing to spend the cost to own DVC. They already have owners of the resorts that finish their RTUs hooked, otherwise they wouldn't be owners, and they will position them with a special "promotion" to become the new wave of customers to buy into their new resorts at that time. They will take the old resort and rip it down, and use it to expand or build a park or maybe just build a new timeshare resort and resell it.

[Dean]

If Disney is going strong in 2040, why would the resorts value not correlate with Disney’s success? DVC is simply a WDW accommodation, why wouldn’t its value be directly tied to WDW room rates?timeshares rarely track hotel rates in any way even now. With only a few years left, the yearly fees themselves are likely to be as much or more than what the room rates might be. Add the risk and aggravation of closing and it simply won't be worth it. Even now if ROFR goes away you'll see a reduction in value.

[disney dumbo]

timeshares rarely track hotel rates in any way even now.

Hi Dean,

I'm trying to understand your comments... but you know I'm a little dumbo.:)

What does your statement above mean?

Sales? Rental? Nightly rates?

Could you be saying that DVC is cheaper than paying Disney hotel rates?
I've heard that one before! :cool1:

For some reason... I don't think that's what you mean. Please elaborate.

the yearly fees themselves are likely to be as much or more than what the room rates might be.

Are you implying that Disney would inflate expenses for DVC MF? Or that Disney hotels will be immune to expenses that would raise the room rate? Help me understand how the MF will be more than room rates.

I'm not trying to argue... I really want to understand what you are saying.

Thanks!

[Shamus]

The last 2-3 years I doubt they will even be worth the closing and maint fees. My thoughts are that we're near the top for the 2042 resorts. I feel those that think they'll just keep going up related to hotel costs are kidding themselves. Timeshares rarely track hotel costs very well, even for places like Marriott.


If you don't think that the Disney Hotel costs will/do have a direct effect on DVC pricing then YOU are kidding YOURSELF. Disney Room Cost is a number DVC uses in their pricing analysis, and a number I'm sure most all DVC purchasers use in their valuation of the program. To imply that there will be no correlation between Disney hotel prices and DVC value is Absurd.

DVC is not Marriott and it is not a traditional time share. Stop trying to apply the traditional timeshare financial model to DVC ... It does not fit. Very few Timeshares are intertwined with a hotel to the extent that DVC resorts like BWV, BCV, and VWL are. To think that the value of a studio at BWV will not be somehow related to the cost of BWI room is ridiculous.

15 Years ago there were very very few seasoned timeshare owners who even gave DVC the slightest chance of being successful...........Why then did it succeed? .....Why is DVC so successful? ... Because it is all controlled by the HOUSE of the MOUSE.....And that makes all the difference!!!!

timeshares rarely track hotel rates in any way even now. With only a few years left, the yearly fees themselves are likely to be as much or more than what the room rates might be. Add the risk and aggravation of closing and it simply won't be worth it. Even now if ROFR goes away you'll see a reduction in value.

I'd like to see the mathematical projections you did to show yearly fees exceeding room rates. :teacher:

As time draws closer to the end you will actually see the a stronger relationship between DVC value and Hotel cost! Why? Because the RISK of time will be almost zero.

Dean - You are very knowledgeable about DVC and the Timeshare Industry and I enjoy reading your comments ... but when it comes to this future valuation topic I have to respectfully disagree with your viewpoint.

SHAMUS

[Dean]

Hi Dean,

I'm trying to understand your comments... but you know I'm a little dumbo.:)

What does your statement above mean?

Sales? Rental? Nightly rates? My reference was comparing the value of ownership to a comparable nightly rate from the hotels.



Are you implying that Disney would inflate expenses for DVC MF? Or that Disney hotels will be immune to expenses that would raise the room rate? Help me understand how the MF will be more than room rates.

I'm not trying to argue... I really want to understand what you are saying.
Don't worry about the questioning, it's all part of discussing this issue. I am not saying DVC would intentionally inflate but that the natural inflation will likely make owning as or more expensive that comparable non ownership options late in the game. Time will tell.

[Dean]

If you don't think that the Disney Hotel costs will/do have a direct effect on DVC pricing then YOU are kidding YOURSELF. Disney Room Cost is a number DVC uses in their pricing analysis, and a number I'm sure most all DVC purchasers use in their valuation of the program. To imply that there will be no correlation between Disney hotel prices and DVC value is Absurd.I didn't say they wouldn't have an influence, of course they will. But there will be MANY other factors. DVC is certainly somewhat different when it comes to timeshares so there is no good direct comparison. However, if one looks at other high demand areas where there are a fair amount of timeshares, the costs of those timeshares is only moderately affected by the price of hotels in the same area. Even for DVC if one can do Sun-Fri, the price doesn't currently track.

DVC is not Marriott and it is not a traditional time share. Stop trying to apply the traditional timeshare financial model to DVC ... It does not fit. Very few Timeshares are intertwined with a hotel to the extent that DVC resorts like BWV, BCV, and VWL are. To think that the value of a studio at BWV will not be somehow related to the cost of BWI room is ridiculous.See above but I do mostly disagree.

15 Years ago there were very very few seasoned timeshare owners who even gave DVC the slightest chance of being successful...........Why then did it succeed? .....Why is DVC so successful? ... Because it is all controlled by the HOUSE of the MOUSE.....And that makes all the difference!!!! I'm not sure that's accurate. I am a seasoned timeshare vet and I bought in almost 15 years ago.

The other problem is that anyone who buys late will have the distinct possibility of a special assessment. Hopefully we all live to see how this all plays out.

[Amy5000]

The other problem is that anyone who buys late will have the distinct possibility of a special assessment. Hopefully we all live to see how this all plays out.

This quote really confused me at first b/c I assumed if there is a special assessment it will apply to everyone. But then I figured you meant that a person buying later won't be able to take the zen stance that they are spreading this cost out over a 40 or 50 year contract.

This, of course, leads me to my next question: Do they refurbish rooms out of MF fees or special assessments? How refrequently to they refurbish rooms? (I guess I was wondering what will happen close to the end of the contracts....)

[Dean]

This quote really confused me at first b/c I assumed if there is a special assessment it will apply to everyone. But then I figured you meant that a person buying later won't be able to take the zen stance that they are spreading this cost out over a 40 or 50 year contract.

This, of course, leads me to my next question: Do they refurbish rooms out of MF fees or special assessments? How refrequently to they refurbish rooms? (I guess I was wondering what will happen close to the end of the contracts....)In theory they should do so out of ongoing fees but more than 1 timeshare has had special assessments for things that should have come under the ongoing fees. We just had a small SA for one of the Marriott's I use but it was for upgrading, not for usual maintenance. One I owned previously had a 33% increase in fees stating certain things that needed to be done implying it was a temp increase and should be rolled back later then 2-3 years later had a SA for things that were listed the first go around. No roll back and then had a second SA a couple of years later. Luckily I sold all of my units just prior to the first SA and bought back in just after the last one. No prior knowledge was involved on my part, just lucky for once.

The truth is I don't expect a SA for DVC but you never know. I didn't expect one for the Marriott either though I did successfully predict the last 4 resorts that Marriott cut loose with owners telling me no way would Marriott walk away from good HH resorts or Vail. And they especially wouldn't keep part of the resorts (5 resorts in one complex) and not all of them. I was correct on all counts.

Look at where we're at right now. Assume that OKW and SSR expired in Jan, 2010 so less than 3 years remaining. Points have a value somewhere between $10-12 per point and dues around $5 per point with closing of around $500. Would anyone go through buying just to get 2-3 years at most use, I don't think the savings would be worth it for any situation, esp. when one can rent or possibly get code type discounts. Time will tell.

[disney dumbo]

Look at where we're at right now. Assume that OKW and SSR expired in Jan, 2010 so less than 3 years remaining. Points have a value somewhere between $10-12 per point and dues around $5 per point with closing of around $500. Would anyone go through buying just to get 2-3 years at most use, I don't think the savings would be worth it for any situation, esp. when one can rent or possibly get code type discounts. Time will tell.

Time will definitely tell. And I know there are 100's of factors that will ultimately effect the selling price in the last years... and completely no way to determine that 34 years ahead. But this theory is a bit interesting to me... so to further our discussion...

using my earlier figures...


rack rate off season at Beach Club 1nt= roughly $355 studio or room

Say you pay $98/pt and only have 4 years left on contract = $24.50/point/year
Add todays MF approx. $5/pt = $29.50

Cost (in today's money) 12 points for studio = $354

If room rates escalate like I'm imagining they will (and I'm sure MF will go up too)... it still makes me think that even with just 4 years left on contract...
when selling your DVC contract you would probably get your $98 back and that's 30 years from now.


but adjusting them for closing cost and reducing years to 3 as you suggested...

Paying $98/pt and only have 3 years left on contract = $32.67/point/year
Add todays MF approx. $5/pt = $37.67 Add in closing cost $2.78/pt = $40.45/pt (I assume that someone would buy 60 points 12pt/studio x 5 days Sun-Thu... then they are buying 60 points for 3 years use... 60 x 3 = 180 total points $500/180 = $2.78/pt)

Cost 12 points for studio = $485.40

So you are right... you would not want to pay $98/pt for 3 years left on the contract... TODAY!

Just for fun... I figured what price you'd pay TODAY... if you'd only have 3 years left... to equal the rack rate... and that was $65.16/pt. Not bad... especially considering what so many folks paid that have used them for years!

Still I think this still holds true... if I bought at $98 TODAY... and have 31 years of use... and got $65/pt back... I'd be one thrilled person. Sure you might say... that's rack rate... so let's discount it 25%... that's still close to $50/pt. This doesn't even add in the high probability of rack rates INCREASING in 31 years. There's a huge discussion right there... wonder what room rates will be in 31 years????

Then let's look at rent.. and from today's boards... seems to be more people interested in renting than there are points available... so that's a good sign that demand is high! $12/point x 3 yrs left = $36/pt is what you get back after 31 years of enjoying points. I think I'd be pretty happy there too. But in 31 years, there is a high probability of rent rates increasing. I'm sure someone has tracked that too. Seems like I remember $8/point... already that would be a 50% increase. If JUST that amount happens it brings your rent up to $54/pt... 100% increase makes it $72... not too bad either.

So... I'm still of the opinion... $98 is a great buy TODAY!

Again... I know it's all a guess... and an opinion... and like you say... time will tell!

[Delaware Mike]

Disney Dumbo, Dean, et al... I've been reading your discussion with a lot of interest. Not to highjack your conversation, nor interrupt your flow, I have a couple questions.

Do you think future outside pressures (off-property hotel room rates, private home weekly rentals, et cetera) will influence future on-property room rates? With the escalation of on-property rates, Mr. Average John Q. Public may not be able to continually afford Disney rates and begin to stay off-property, looking elsewhere for cheaper lodging.

Room rates at say, CBR, WL, AKL, might be downward-influenced (or at least kept in-check) by outside pressures, which might affect per-point DVC costs as resorts close in on their life expectancies.

...your thoughts on yet another of those 100 things that might affect future events?

[rinkwide]

A decent place on I-Drive goes for $59 but you still can't get into the Boardwalk cheaper than $300.

[snappy]

Disney Dumbo, Dean, et al... I've been reading your discussion with a lot of interest. Not to highjack your conversation, nor interrupt your flow, I have a couple questions.

Do you think future outside pressures (off-property hotel room rates, private home weekly rentals, et cetera) will influence future on-property room rates? With the escalation of on-property rates, Mr. Average John Q. Public may not be able to continually afford Disney rates and begin to stay off-property, looking elsewhere for cheaper lodging.

Room rates at say, CBR, WL, AKL, might be downward-influenced (or at least kept in-check) by outside pressures, which might affect per-point DVC costs as resorts close in on their life expectancies.

...your thoughts on yet another of those 100 things that might affect future events?


I do think the massive building offsite has and will continue to affect WDW resort rates and possibly DVC point rental rates.

There seems to be so much available land in the vicinity of WDW, especially to the west. We have stayed in 4 different very nice offsite houses in that direction. It really worked for us since our kids were younger at the time. Now that the kiddos are older the access provided onsite by walking from the BW DVC's or by buses from the other DVC's is more appealing to us as we can let the kids take off on their own to a certain degree. Also, although we did it I did not really feel all that comfortable renting from individuals. There is a very real value I think to having points under your control (we have also rented DVC points 3 times now).

I think controlling the points, having the extra room and having onsite transportation will at least to some degree mitigate the excess supply of offsite choices.

[disney dumbo]

Do you think future outside pressures (off-property hotel room rates, private home weekly rentals, et cetera) will influence future on-property room rates? With the escalation of on-property rates, Mr. Average John Q. Public may not be able to continually afford Disney rates and begin to stay off-property, looking elsewhere for cheaper lodging.

Room rates at say, CBR, WL, AKL, might be downward-influenced (or at least kept in-check) by outside pressures, which might affect per-point DVC costs as resorts close in on their life expectancies.

...your thoughts on yet another of those 100 things that might affect future events?

Interesting question... My 2 cents goes with supply and demand rules. The hard part is defining supply (house vs luxury hotel vs theme hotel vs...) and demand (want to park by room vs want room by THE park vs want theme vs want to save money)... it's really comparing apples to oranges. Then... what are you willing to pay for those differences!??

What CBR, WL, AKL offers... including theme, location, amenities... is not matched presently by any off-property location IMHO. I would guess people will always pay more for them.

To a degree, I guess off-property lodging does keep the Disney prices in check... because we each have a budget (unfortunately)... but I might pay $ more for theme/location... and someone else might rather save $ to stay off-property. There would be a different magic $ number for each of us. But keep in mind, there is still a different minimally required amenities list in our choice of lodging... each has a $ value associated to it. That's why the same airplane can have 1st class, coach, and a bazillion different excursion fares and rules... and people buying each one... but yet departing and arriving at the same time.

You say on-property rates are escalating... that must mean there are plenty of people paying them. If demand is low... so will the price go. Definitely, people are always looking for cheaper lodging... that's why I'm DVC! It is really a plus for DVC if Disney rates keep going up.

As long as hotel prices are escalating... DVC should be celebrating... because it offers something to freeze the escalation!:cool1:

[Dean]

but adjusting them for closing cost and reducing years to 3 as you suggested...
To be honest I think that trying to project out maint fees and hotel rates is actually far less helpful and likely FAR less accurate than just taking the general situation, that's why I didn't bite with your offer to do so. I'd go further to say that one cannot do so with enough credibility to even use the numbers that far out. Maybe over the next 5-7 years but not that far out, FAR too many variables and most on the negative side. Would you honestly buy today if there were only 2-3 years left, I doubt even most die hards would do so. I doubt most would go through the hassle for the minor savings.

Do you think future outside pressures (off-property hotel room rates, private home weekly rentals, et cetera) will influence future on-property room rates? With the escalation of on-property rates, Mr. Average John Q. Public may not be able to continually afford Disney rates and begin to stay off-property, looking elsewhere for cheaper lodging.I do, I suspect most here would disagree. I think they are influenced now. If there were little good off site options for hotels and timeshares I think one could look at no Disney discounts, even higher Disney prices and likely $20-25 per point or more for rentals right now. In spite of what many here think, there is a large contingent that actually prefers to stay off site and a larger contingent that is happy to do so for the savings.

[nboicepardee]

Wanted to subscribe to this thread. Thank you!
Natalie

[joestein]

Interesting question... My 2 cents goes with supply and demand rules. The hard part is defining supply (house vs luxury hotel vs theme hotel vs...) and demand (want to park by room vs want room by THE park vs want theme vs want to save money)... it's really comparing apples to oranges. Then... what are you willing to pay for those differences!??

What CBR, WL, AKL offers... including theme, location, amenities... is not matched presently by any off-property location IMHO. I would guess people will always pay more for them.

To a degree, I guess off-property lodging does keep the Disney prices in check... because we each have a budget (unfortunately)... but I might pay $ more for theme/location... and someone else might rather save $ to stay off-property. There would be a different magic $ number for each of us. But keep in mind, there is still a different minimally required amenities list in our choice of lodging... each has a $ value associated to it. That's why the same airplane can have 1st class, coach, and a bazillion different excursion fares and rules... and people buying each one... but yet departing and arriving at the same time.

You say on-property rates are escalating... that must mean there are plenty of people paying them. If demand is low... so will the price go. Definitely, people are always looking for cheaper lodging... that's why I'm DVC! It is really a plus for DVC if Disney rates keep going up.

As long as hotel prices are escalating... DVC should be celebrating... because it offers something to freeze the escalation!:cool1:

To say that the DVC resorts are not matched by off-site resorts is entirely incorrect. I can quickly name 3 or 4 resorts that easily surpass any DVC resort:

Hilton Grand Vacation Club - Seaworld
Hilton Grand Vacation Clulb - Internation Drive
Sheraton Vistana Villages
Wyndham Bonnet Creek (entrance is within Disney World).

I think that some of the DVC resorts have nice theming (not all), but so do other off-site resorts. Not to mention that DVC units are TINY, they don't even have a decent dining table.

On the other hand.... The DVC resorts have:

Magical Express
Disney Dining Plan
Disney Transportation (so - so, I am not a big fan of taking buses)

If you are planning to visit Disney and stay within Disney for your whole trip, DVC is great (Though, I would never buy it, I exchange into it through II). If I was planning a trip where we would go to other places (Seaworld, Universal, etc) and only some days at Disney, I would prefer to stay in one of the non-Disney resorts I listed previously.

BTW... You can rent these resorts at various places on the internet pretty cheap.

Joe

[disney dumbo]

To say that the DVC resorts are not matched by off-site resorts is entirely incorrect.
Oops... I'm sorry.
Didn't mean to be "entirely incorrect".
Note my comment "In My Humble Opinion.":)
It's great that you have resorts you love.
I support your ability to make that choice and your right to proclaim their superiority!

If you are planning to visit Disney and stay within Disney for your whole trip, DVC is great
Now THAT's what I'm talking about!
And maybe one day I'll just take that trip to Orlando and not go to Disney and LOVE staying at one of the resorts you've listed.

(Though, I would never buy it, I exchange into it through II).
In my slanted view... this is sort of like buying into it... again IMHO. :)

BTW... You can rent these resorts at various places on the internet pretty cheap. Joe
Thanks for the tip... I do like to save money... and stay in nice places. :thumbsup2
Just curious... do you own at those resorts... or trade into them?

Sorry I seemed to offend you.:flower3:

[disney dumbo]

Would you honestly buy today if there were only 2-3 years left, I doubt even most die hards would do so. I doubt most would go through the hassle for the minor savings.

Yikes Dean...
do I have to fast forward 31 years...
I'm having a hard time realizing it's April and not January! I'm interested in slowing down time... not speeding it up!

Then you mention...
die hards...
In the same sentence... you've made me think about 31 years in the future... the word "die" just about jumped off my computer!

Basically I'm saying to OP... $98 still looks like a good deal to me. I'm looking forward to good times for the next 34 yearpixiedust: hopefully for me... if not... for the lucky buyer of my contracts.

[Dean]

Yikes Dean...
do I have to fast forward 31 years...
I'm having a hard time realizing it's April and not January! I'm interested in slowing down time... not speeding it up!

Then you mention...
die hards...
In the same sentence... you've made me think about 31 years in the future... the word "die" just about jumped off my computer!

Basically I'm saying to OP... $98 still looks like a good deal to me. I'm looking forward to good times for the next 34 yearpixiedust: hopefully for me... if not... for the lucky buyer of my contracts.$98 may look like a good deal now but will it be in the future, my guess is no for the 1942 resorts for most people. Anyone buying a timeshare should be considering the long term effect, risks and benefits or else they really should not buy. Obviously no one knows exactly what's going to happen but I feel many DVC members are pretty blind when it comes to the mouse plus they often make assumptions about timeshares that are rarely accurate.

[DVC Grammy]

If some of us DVCers are sensitive about our "investment"/indulgence in buying our Disney timeshares, what will those Four Season buyers feel like? :rolleyes1
In comparison to the rumored cost of those, ours cost "bubkas"! :rotfl2:

[snappy]

To say that the DVC resorts are not matched by off-site resorts is entirely incorrect. I can quickly name 3 or 4 resorts that easily surpass any DVC resort:

Hilton Grand Vacation Club - Seaworld
Hilton Grand Vacation Clulb - Internation Drive
Sheraton Vistana Villages
Wyndham Bonnet Creek (entrance is within Disney World).


BTW... You can rent these resorts at various places on the internet pretty cheap.

Joe

Joe, I have used vrbo and villas 2000 for houses. What internet site have you had luck with finding the above resorts for the best price?

[dvc at last !]

I want to subscribe to this thread, too.

Food for thought. :cool1:

[disney dumbo]

$98 may look like a good deal now but will it be in the future, my guess is no for the 1942 resorts for most people. Anyone buying a timeshare should be considering the long term effect, risks and benefits or else they really should not buy. Obviously no one knows exactly what's going to happen but I feel many DVC members are pretty blind when it comes to the mouse plus they often make assumptions about timeshares that are rarely accurate.

Hello again!

For some strange reason... I feel like I need to reply again... sorry folks!
Dean, I get the feeling you don't understand what I am saying.

Looks like we agree on some statements you make:
Anyone buying a timeshare should be considering the long term effect, risks and benefits or else they really should not buy. Obviously no one knows exactly what's going to happen
I couldn't agree with you more. That IS what I am saying. At $98... the future looks great!
Will it be in the future?
It will constantly need to be evaluated... we both agree there.

But basically you believe it is at it's peak... and that's where we disagree. To me... that is the equivalent of comparing it to human life expectancy of 80 years... at 25 you are at your peak. Maybe you think that is true too? Not the way my life is working... thank the good Lord! In my book... "peak" is still a ways down the road.

I feel many DVC members are pretty blind when it comes to the mouse
I just don't SEE it that way... sorry for the pun!
When you disagree and call it blindness... you run the risk of BEING the oned that is actually blind! Is that okay with you?

I don't think "many" of us are stupid. We wouldn't be analyzing... researching, thinking, etc.

Sure, I see most DVC members on this board as being pro-DVC... that's why they bought... they like it... AND we have our eyes open. For me, I appreciate the mouse for all that it has offered through the years. Still, I will require it to hold certain standards in the future... not just give it complete merit based on its past history. But, I guess I must be an optimist... I really can't see them changing enough to lose me... but for the record... it could happen.

My favorite aspect of the mouse would be for the pure escape it offers. Four major amusement parks... water parks... restaurants... without a doubt it is a destination with in itself. Compare it to an ocean... it holds title to ALL the oceanfront rooms... everything else sits in the distance. They can be deluxe... they can have a theme... they offer just about any amenity they want... but they will NEVER be oceanfront. We are offered a chance to lease some space. The only other way to stay there is rent. Complete ownership is out of the question... I believe they were brilliant to design it that way. They have more to risk than we do.

they often make assumptions about timeshares that are rarely accurate
Maybe that's true. I honestly don't know much about timeshares... because I don't believe DVC fits the mold of what was traditionally called a timeshare. It's more like a long term lease... with an option to sell the lease. This is what I've studied.

So, I'm content to say we disagree on the future of the next 34 years. Hope you understand my views a little bit better.:hourglass

[dizzneebabe]

subscribing:surfweb:

[Budshark]

Looks like we agree on some statements you make:
Anyone buying a timeshare should be considering the long term effect, risks and benefits or else they really should not buy. Obviously no one knows exactly what's going to happen
I couldn't agree with you more. That IS what I am saying. At $98... the future looks great!


OK - I'll take a completely unsolicited shot at this... :lmao:

I think you are both "roughly" saying the same thing here.

Disney Dumbo is saying that if you buy at $98/pt in 2007 - in 2037 you will likely be able to sell for the same or higher cost per point. And therefore; the $20,000 investment in 2007 would get you at least $20,000 in 2037 - even with only 5 years left. Fair enough?

What this doesn't include (and what I think Dean is alluding to) is the VALUE of the money in 2037 is different. So even though you got $98/pt back for the $98/pt you spent - the "value" of that $98 is only the equivalent of $20 in 2037 finances...

So - in Disney Dumbo's view you get your money back. True. In Dean's view the money you get back in 30 years isn't the same value as it was in 2007. True. Everyone is right - no one is wrong... we can all be happy :love:

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

It is very hard to assess the future of DVC. Its been around roughly 15 years. Trying to determine the value of something twice as far in the future as its existed gives you a 0% probability of being accurate.

I think if we stick to the 5-10 year range we'll be better off. And in 5 years I see timeframe of contract having minimal impact on resale value. In 10 years, I see it starting to have an impact on OKW - but I think VWL, BCV, and BWVs location will override some of this (unless you get a CRV and/or Polynesian resort, which will hurt the 'premium' location status of VWL, BCV, and BWV)

Chris

[Dean]

Hello again!

For some strange reason... I feel like I need to reply again... sorry folks!
Dean, I get the feeling you don't understand what I am saying.

Looks like we agree on some statements you make:
Anyone buying a timeshare should be considering the long term effect, risks and benefits or else they really should not buy. Obviously no one knows exactly what's going to happen
I couldn't agree with you more. That IS what I am saying. At $98... the future looks great!
Will it be in the future?
It will constantly need to be evaluated... we both agree there.

But basically you believe it is at it's peak... and that's where we disagree. To me... that is the equivalent of comparing it to human life expectancy of 80 years... at 25 you are at your peak. Maybe you think that is true too? Not the way my life is working... thank the good Lord! In my book... "peak" is still a ways down the road.

I feel many DVC members are pretty blind when it comes to the mouse
I just don't SEE it that way... sorry for the pun!
When you disagree and call it blindness... you run the risk of BEING the oned that is actually blind! Is that okay with you?

I don't think "many" of us are stupid. We wouldn't be analyzing... researching, thinking, etc.

Sure, I see most DVC members on this board as being pro-DVC... that's why they bought... they like it... AND we have our eyes open. For me, I appreciate the mouse for all that it has offered through the years. Still, I will require it to hold certain standards in the future... not just give it complete merit based on its past history. But, I guess I must be an optimist... I really can't see them changing enough to lose me... but for the record... it could happen.

My favorite aspect of the mouse would be for the pure escape it offers. Four major amusement parks... water parks... restaurants... without a doubt it is a destination with in itself. Compare it to an ocean... it holds title to ALL the oceanfront rooms... everything else sits in the distance. They can be deluxe... they can have a theme... they offer just about any amenity they want... but they will NEVER be oceanfront. We are offered a chance to lease some space. The only other way to stay there is rent. Complete ownership is out of the question... I believe they were brilliant to design it that way. They have more to risk than we do.

they often make assumptions about timeshares that are rarely accurate
Maybe that's true. I honestly don't know much about timeshares... because I don't believe DVC fits the mold of what was traditionally called a timeshare. It's more like a long term lease... with an option to sell the lease. This is what I've studied.

So, I'm content to say we disagree on the future of the next 34 years. Hope you understand my views a little bit better.:hourglassWe likely agree on most aspects but to explore further. I don't think the future of a 2042 resort looks great at $98 per point. I think only AKV really looks viable at that price range. It is my opinion that we are near the top for the 2042 resorts and that not only will the value decrease but actually faster than any inflation so the actual $$ value will decrease. So in 10 years $98 may be $70 and worth only $50, just as an example. So yes we disagree if you think there's much upside potential for the 2042 resorts at $98 per point. And I do truly believe that a large portion of the members here are not objective on many fronts related to DVC.

[littlestar]

To be honest I think that trying to project out maint fees and hotel rates is actually far less helpful and likely FAR less accurate than just taking the general situation, that's why I didn't bite with your offer to do so. I'd go further to say that one cannot do so with enough credibility to even use the numbers that far out. Maybe over the next 5-7 years but not that far out, FAR too many variables and most on the negative side. Would you honestly buy today if there were only 2-3 years left, I doubt even most die hards would do so. I doubt most would go through the hassle for the minor savings.

I do, I suspect most here would disagree. I think they are influenced now. If there were little good off site options for hotels and timeshares I think one could look at no Disney discounts, even higher Disney prices and likely $20-25 per point or more for rentals right now. In spite of what many here think, there is a large contingent that actually prefers to stay off site and a larger contingent that is happy to do so for the savings.


Most of my family actually prefer the Marriott Vacation Club resorts in Orlando. They say they have higher quality linens, better mattresses, and nicer furnishings, nicer TV's, etc.. I've even heard some of my family refer to certain DVC resort rooms as looking "dated." I think it's hard for some people to believe this, but it's true - a lot of people prefer offsite. I think with Seaworld adding a first class (amazing) water park next year, already having Discovery Cove, and of course, the Seaworld park, it's becoming more than a one-day destination. I have to wonder if the vacation club resorts over off of I drive will be even busier - the Hiltons, Marriotts, and Starwood properties. DVC/Disney is definitely not the only game in town. And a lot of those other vacation club resorts offer fantastic locations all around the world - and are adding more locations all the time.

Whether we keep all of our points or sell off most in the future, I'm not sure right now. If Disney stays a high quality family destination, then we'll probably keep some. But, if we find we're traveling to a lot more locations than central Florida, we'll probably sell most of the DVC points. The dues are just too high to use for trading on a regular basis.

[joestein]

Oops... I'm sorry.
Didn't mean to be "entirely incorrect".
Note my comment "In My Humble Opinion.":)
It's great that you have resorts you love.
I support your ability to make that choice and your right to proclaim their superiority!


Now THAT's what I'm talking about!
And maybe one day I'll just take that trip to Orlando and not go to Disney and LOVE staying at one of the resorts you've listed.


In my slanted view... this is sort of like buying into it... again IMHO. :)


Thanks for the tip... I do like to save money... and stay in nice places. :thumbsup2
Just curious... do you own at those resorts... or trade into them?

Sorry I seemed to offend you.:flower3:



You did not offend me at all, I am just amazed at how some people view anything that is associated with Disney.

In answer to your comments, I do not own at any of those resorts, I trade into them. I happen to own at a FF resort in Ft. Lauderdale and in Williamsburg, and both are "points" as opposed to fixed weeks. Based upon my readings around the internet, I have learned how to make the most of the points.

My Wife bought the property in Williamsburg specifically to trade into DVC or Marriot, as it trades in II. We purchased it resale on ebay for $599 (plus closing costs of $375), it gives us just enought points to get a red 2 bedroom deposit to II every other year. My 2 year mainteance total is approx. $600, but it also includes II membership, which is $100/yr, so my cost is really $400. While I rarely see a 2 bedroom DVC, 1 bedrooms are somewhat common, so for $400 I get trade into DVC every two years. If I owned DVC, how many points would that get me? About 80? For a 1 bedroom in May when I go it would be 250 DVC points or around $1250 maintenance. That is what I mean when I say that DVC is expensive.


BTW.. the places to rent some of these timeshares in orland are:

Armed Forces Vacation Club
Getravelop.com
http://www.rcihnresorts.com
http://www.realtimerental.com
http://www.holidaynetwork.com


Joe

[disney dumbo]

We likely agree on most aspects but to explore further. I don't think the future of a 2042 resort looks great at $98 per point. I think only AKV really looks viable at that price range. It is my opinion that we are near the top for the 2042 resorts and that not only will the value decrease but actually faster than any inflation so the actual $$ value will decrease. So in 10 years $98 may be $70 and worth only $50, just as an example. So yes we disagree if you think there's much upside potential for the 2042 resorts at $98 per point. And I do truly believe that a large portion of the members here are not objective on many fronts related to DVC.

Communication may not be my strong suit... but I do feel I'm getting a better grip on your thoughts. While we do agree on some... unfortunately, I don't think we agree on the peak theory. I believe you are saying "sell" and I am saying "buy". :sad2:

My "buy" thoughts would certainly be offered with the traditional advice so frequently expressed through experienced DVC members here:
1. Buy if you have Disney plans in your future... minimal of 1 out of every 3 years.
2. Buy if you DESIRE to stay on Disney property.
3. Buy if you can afford it.
4. Buy if you stay in moderates and upscaled resorts especially if you love 1BR/2 BR/villa type units
5. etc.

I realize that no one knows what will happen in the "end" years. What if Disney has not continued to build DVC resorts which would mean the majority of ownership will be expiring at the same time... it could cause panic to set in amongst the owners... or what if Disney changes the program (requiring us to stay at home resort, etc.), and other things. But I see DVC now with years in between those times. How many years? With 34 left... I'm thinking MAYBE the last 10-5 years might be a little different... and under 5 years for sure will require specific analysis for those ending years. To me, that easily give me 24 years to run as hard as I can with the given program!

Sure even those years will carry a risk...
I listed many on an earlier post...
but we all know... spending money for advance use... has risk! Cars, homes, prepaid anything. Because I'm not saying "buy" because it is a good INVESTMENT... I am saying "buy" because it is a good VALUE. A way to save money on future vacations. NOT a way to make money! So I see it to be a good VALUE for the next 24 years.

So what if it goes up in price? GREAT!
and what if it goes down in price? even in your examples in 10 yrs $98 to $70... that's $28/10 yrs... cost to me $2.80 per year! or even if it goes to $0 at 10 years out - cost to me $4.08/year... BIG DEAL!!! I can give away the last 10 years for MF!

Our real watchful eye... needs to be on the MF. Sure older resorts require more maintenance... I'm hoping DVC plans appropriately for that. Also, I'm hoping that Disney will keep building DVC's in a limited fashion... that is good for us... opens trade opportunities... keeps them interested in keeping happy members... so they can sell DVC to NEW folks!

I do say "sell"...
if going to Disney isn't in your plans anymore. To me renting points is more risk and hassle than I would want to handle... proud of those people that can and do... because it did get me hooked!

I can understand the impulse to sell at this price point... if you bought low. That's what you are trained to do... buy low... sell high. BUT, that will now put you back in the rental market. Maybe you folks have enjoyed Disney enough... and that's fine. That's a good reason to sell. I just don't proclaim it to be the BEST time to sell. It ALL depends on USE.

:)

[Dean]

Communication may not be my strong suit... but I do feel I'm getting a better grip on your thoughts. While we do agree on some... unfortunately, I don't think we agree on the peak theory. I believe you are saying "sell" and I am saying "buy". :sad2::)No problem. But why buy a 2042 high demand resort when you can buy a 2057 one other than if you want one resort most all the time for a high demand option?

[jade1]

No problem. But why buy a 2042 high demand resort when you can buy a 2057 one other than if you want one resort most all the time for a high demand option?

You answered your own question with the "other than"-many folks want the high demand option which is why some 2042 resorts are selling for so much. Also 10 years from now you can sell the high demand 2042 resort and buy a new 2067 resort if its one you like (and they keep building).

[Dean]

You answered your own question with the "other than"-many folks want the high demand option which is why some 2042 resorts are selling for so much. Also 10 years from now you can sell the high demand 2042 resort and buy a new 2067 resort if its one you like (and they keep building).Not really. I simply acknowledged there would be a small percentage of people who wanted a very difficult option at a specific resort essentially each and every time. It think that is a fairly small percentage of owners even at the smaller 3 resorts on property. But that's why one needs to weigh all the options. I think SSR is not a worthwhile choice for many people simply for the extra time but the additional options and value that AKV give tips the scale in that direction. But SSR at $75 per point may be a better value than BCV at $95 per point. Even if you get shut out occasionally, you can make it work most of the time.

And I think the decision to buy or not is much different than whether to sell or keep if you already own it. I've been a big proponent of buy where you want to stay but I think that scale is tipping a different direction for many potential owners.

[disney dumbo]

No problem. But why buy a 2042 high demand resort when you can buy a 2057 one other than if you want one resort most all the time for a high demand option?

Hey Dean... That is another tough question!!!

$100/34 = $2.94 $100/50 = $2.00

Definitely a personal opinion... but for my travel... I'd pay .94/pt to get 1st option at the 11 month window at the resort where I want to stay. I don't have enough experience to know how well you can book at the 7 month window. Our travel is general pretty well set... and at pretty popular times. I can see myself getting to the point where it doesn't matter where I stay... because of soooo many good flavors... but I really prefer to get the most control so my vacation can be exactly like I want it!

"I've been a big proponent of buy where you want to stay but I think that scale is tipping a different direction for many potential owners."

So, I can agree with your above statement!

"But SSR at $75 per point may be a better value than BCV at $95 per point. Even if you get shut out occasionally, you can make it work most of the time."

And this above statement too!!! :cheer2:

Yikes... agreeing twice... it's late... maybe I'll feel differently in the morning!
:rotfl:

[Dean]

Hey Dean... That is another tough question!!!

$100/34 = $2.94 $100/50 = $2.00

Definitely a personal opinion... but for my travel... I'd pay .94/pt to get 1st option at the 11 month window at the resort where I want to stay. I don't have enough experience to know how well you can book at the 7 month window. Our travel is general pretty well set... and at pretty popular times. I can see myself getting to the point where it doesn't matter where I stay... because of soooo many good flavors... but I really prefer to get the most control so my vacation can be exactly like I want it!That assumes that the dues are the same for all components to use your numbers and also assumes you keep if for the entire length of each contract. And it ignores the future value of the given resort/contract. But like all DVC purchase decisions, the exact circumstances will dictate whether a given purchase is a reasonable choice or not. One person may get great value out of BCV or BWV in the $90's and the next may not get good value out of AKV at $50 per point depending on how they use their points.

[disney dumbo]

My Wife bought the property in Williamsburg specifically to trade into DVC or Marriot, as it trades in II. We purchased it resale on ebay for $599 (plus closing costs of $375), it gives us just enought points to get a red 2 bedroom deposit to II every other year. My 2 year mainteance total is approx. $600, but it also includes II membership, which is $100/yr, so my cost is really $400. While I rarely see a 2 bedroom DVC, 1 bedrooms are somewhat common, so for $400 I get trade into DVC every two years. If I owned DVC, how many points would that get me? About 80? For a 1 bedroom in May when I go it would be 250 DVC points or around $1250 maintenance. That is what I mean when I say that DVC is expensive.
Joe

Now we are REALLY talking! What a smart move! I'd like to know more about this. I have previously done searches in this area... but it sounded like availablity was very limited... and difficult to get Disney. That you had to be extremely flexible... and unfortunately, can't do that - yet! Is that true?

How far or close to travel dates can you grab these Disney units?

What type of II ownership do you have to buy?

I agree DVC is expensive... but regular Disney reservations without DVC is outrageously expensive!!!

Thanks for your reply!

[Dean]

Now we are REALLY talking! What a smart move! I'd like to know more about this. I have previously done searches in this area... but it sounded like availablity was very limited... and difficult to get Disney. That you had to be extremely flexible... and unfortunately, can't do that - yet! Is that true?

How far or close to travel dates can you grab these Disney units?

What type of II ownership do you have to buy?

I agree DVC is expensive... but regular Disney reservations without DVC is outrageously expensive!!!

Thanks for your reply!You need a decent rated II resort, preferably a 1 BR or larger or a lockoff. Some of the points systems work well for this also. I've traded in a number of times and plan most of my future trips in this manner. I had a 1 BR in Jan at OKW, Sept at BWV and a 2 BR at SSR in Dec in 2006. But it assumes you can make do without a 2 BR and you can travel somewhat off season for most trips. As a member, you can still get most perks while staying on an exchange. Part of my stays have been with bonus weeks.

One also needs to plan a full 11-12 months or more in advance and be willing to give the process some time. It does become questionable in value when looking at the studios because you have the same exchange fee and extra $95 DVC fee when you exchange in plus your II dues and maint fees on the resorts you own.

[disney dumbo]

That assumes that the dues are the same for all components
Well, I probably would pay the difference in dues too... within reason. :)

also assumes you keep if for the entire length of each contract. And it ignores the future value of the given resort/contract.
Don't make me go through my "selling" thoughts again! :badpc:


But like all DVC purchase decisions, the exact circumstances will dictate whether a given purchase is a reasonable choice or not. One person may get great value out of BCV or BWV in the $90's and the next may not get good value out of AKV at $50 per point depending on how they use their points.
AGREE AGAIN!!! :thumbsup2

[Dean]

AGREE AGAIN!!! :thumbsup2Quit that or you'll get on the DIS naughty list, LOL.

[disney dumbo]

Everyone is right - no one is wrong... we can all be happy :love:

Hey Chris... just wanted to say... I admire your spirit of DVC family togetherness! :grouphug:

It is very hard to assess the future of DVC. Its been around roughly 15 years. Trying to determine the value of something twice as far in the future as its existed gives you a 0% probability of being accurate.

And I do agree with your above comment.

Gosh, all this agreeing... must be celebrating... it's Friday!
:dance3:

[disney dumbo]

Quit that or you'll get on the DIS naughty list, LOL.
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :blush:

[disney dumbo]

You need a decent rated II resort, preferably a 1 BR or larger or a lockoff. Some of the points systems work well for this also. I've traded in a number of times and plan most of my future trips in this manner. I had a 1 BR in Jan at OKW, Sept at BWV and a 2 BR at SSR in Dec in 2006. But it assumes you can make do without a 2 BR and you can travel somewhat off season for most trips. As a member, you can still get most perks while staying on an exchange. Part of my stays have been with bonus weeks.

One also needs to plan a full 11-12 months or more in advance and be willing to give the process some time. It does become questionable in value when looking at the studios because you have the same exchange fee and extra $95 DVC fee when you exchange in plus your II dues and maint fees on the resorts you own.

Whoa Dean... you are rolling tonight! :cool2:

Okay... Dumbo showing again... sorry!

How do you know if it is "decent rated"?

"Some of the points systems work well for this also." Care to name a few?

Thanks for continuing to educated me!

[Amy5000]

You need a decent rated II resort, preferably a 1 BR or larger or a lockoff. Some of the points systems work well for this also.

Dean: How do you find out what's a decent rated II resort? Also, I'm curious, what do you use to trade into Disney? I checked out the II site and saw so many resorts listed. If considered getting something to trade into Disney to supplement what will hopefully be my small DVC contract (if I make it through ROFR). But I was overwhelmed when I saw the number of II resorts out there.

Amy

[Dean]

Whoa Dean... you are rolling tonight! :cool2:

Okay... Dumbo showing again... sorry!

How do you know if it is "decent rated"?

"Some of the points systems work well for this also." Care to name a few?

Thanks for continuing to educated me!It's not difficult to figure out if a timeshare is rated well enough in II to trade into DVC but it does take a little work and effort. II will tell you if you ask them the right questions. You can ask other owners who do II searches. And as a ROUGH rule, MOST things 5 star will fit the bill but some that are not 5 star will also. As a rule for someone getting started along this road I would recommend you spend 6 months of active research and then buy something you can use yourself 30-50% of the time.

Any of the points systems that work with II should do OK that I am aware of. Just to name a few of the more common ones: Hyatt, Bluegreen, Sunterra, Starwood, Fairfield & Worldmark. That is a wide range of options just in that list of 6. At least BG & FF give you RCI options as well as II options. FF & BG should be relatively inexpensive. With BG you should be able to get something where you could get a DVC 1 BR yearly for 7000 points which you could get resale for less than the $3K mentioned above. My impression is FF would be a similar price. But you should investigate each you are considering well enough to know what will work best for you and what will not.

Dean: How do you find out what's a decent rated II resort? Also, I'm curious, what do you use to trade into Disney? I checked out the II site and saw so many resorts listed. If considered getting something to trade into Disney to supplement what will hopefully be my small DVC contract (if I make it through ROFR). But I was overwhelmed when I saw the number of II resorts out there.

AmyAmy, in addition to the above info I'll say that my views on what I own over the years (DVC and otherwise) have evolved. I want good stuff, mostly at least reasonably close to DVC qualify, and I want it as cheaply as possibly. I've evolved from mostly owning to trade to owning to use and trading to supplement, for variety and for sport. The thrill of the chase so to speak. I do have high demand resorts weeks that I would only trade in a special situation (DVC, HH Marriott's), then I have a trading Marriott that is a lockoff, a single MX resort that works on points and a lot of BG points. This is very different than a few years ago. Currently I have 433 DVC points down from 885 a few years ago headed to likely 100 or less in 2-3 years. Previously I owned a different Marriott week to trade but feel that resort may be dropped from Marriott so I sold it and bought another. I owned several fixed weeks in Aruba but fees were going up and we've never been to Aruba to I converted them to BG. Over the years I've likely owned 30-40 weeks/contracts that I don't currently own. While I haven't learned much the hard way fortunately, I have moved closer and closer to the ideal situation for myself and my family.

I do searches in II daily for what DVC options show up no only with everything I own now but many of the options I no longer own still show up in my online II account. Then I play with all type of unit/resorts to see what will and will not pull the DVC units available. Will a 1 BR from a lower rated resort pull all DVC 1 BRs available? Will a studio pull a 1 BR? will a bonus week get it? do I have to use a higher demand/value week or resort to get what I want. What are my chances of getting a 2 BR? a 1 BR during a higher demand time like summer? Obviously this is not a perfect science and it relies on what's sitting in II online where ongoing searches have already picked over the inventory to the real answer is likely even better than the picture I get if I do ongoing searches. But I've assumed if I see it online consistently with a given option, my chances of getting that same thing or something similar the next few years with that option is very good. And it tells me if I can use a $200 option or need to use a $1000 options for example to get what I want.

[gerrym51]

I'm not sure, but I think I've seen a little lower than that. Seems to me I've seen $55-57 when DVC first started. I'm sure someone knows for sure.

my wife and i bought 230 OKW points in 1993 for $56.00 a point plus
7 years for park passes free.


g

[Amy5000]

Amy, in addition to the above info I'll say that my views on what I own over the years (DVC and otherwise) have evolved. I want good stuff, mostly at least reasonably close to DVC qualify, and I want it as cheaply as possibly. I've evolved from mostly owning to trade to owning to use and trading to supplement, for variety and for sport. The thrill of the chase so to speak. I do have high demand resorts weeks that I would only trade in a special situation (DVC, HH Marriott's), then I have a trading Marriott that is a lockoff, a single MX resort that works on points and a lot of BG points. This is very different than a few years ago. Currently I have 433 DVC points down from 885 a few years ago headed to likely 100 or less in 2-3 years. Previously I owned a different Marriott week to trade but feel that resort may be dropped from Marriott so I sold it and bought another. I owned several fixed weeks in Aruba but fees were going up and we've never been to Aruba to I converted them to BG. Over the years I've likely owned 30-40 weeks/contracts that I don't currently own. While I haven't learned much the hard way fortunately, I have moved closer and closer to the ideal situation for myself and my family.

I do searches in II daily for what DVC options show up no only with everything I own now but many of the options I no longer own still show up in my online II account. Then I play with all type of unit/resorts to see what will and will not pull the DVC units available. Will a 1 BR from a lower rated resort pull all DVC 1 BRs available? Will a studio pull a 1 BR? will a bonus week get it? do I have to use a higher demand/value week or resort to get what I want. What are my chances of getting a 2 BR? a 1 BR during a higher demand time like summer? Obviously this is not a perfect science and it relies on what's sitting in II online where ongoing searches have already picked over the inventory to the real answer is likely even better than the picture I get if I do ongoing searches. But I've assumed if I see it online consistently with a given option, my chances of getting that same thing or something similar the next few years with that option is very good. And it tells me if I can use a $200 option or need to use a $1000 options for example to get what I want.


Dean: Thanks for the info. I'm going to continue to read up about other TS, but I've decided not to jump into anything too quickly. Afterall, I'm new to DVC, I should see how this works for us before deciding to buy other TSs to trade into DVC. Thanks again.

Amy

[joestein]

I will pretty much agree with what Dean said about trading into DVC. I am using FF points, which are very cheap, and I know that Worldmark Points work well too.

FF has generic floating weeks that you can use to look up a trade. Once you find what you want using the the most powerful floating week (red - 3 bedroom), you can search using the lesser weeks until you find the best deal.

Even if you find only the 3 bedroom pulls DVC, you can call II and ask them to change the unit you are exchanging to the same number of rooms as the DVC unit you will receive. There are a lot of ways to work the system.

I recommend checking out TUG, the timeshare user group, and then once you get an idea of what system you want to own, check out the yahoo group devoted to that timeshare company. You can find a lot of "secrets" there.

Good Luck.

Joe

[DVC SSR Owner]

Jim, you are correct. When OKW was in the pre- or early construction phase, they offered points at $47. After they opened , the price went to $50. I bought in 1997 at $56 a point, showing that the points slowly rose, from 1992-97. After that, things started taking off. There are some of us that even remember Disney trying to sell Vero at $50 as a promotional thing. Those days are behind us, though. Prices have NEVER gone down, and won't until we get closer to the end.:wizard:

Look how wrong this post was!

[JimMIA]

Look how wrong this post was!
Look at the age of the thread!

You're quoting a thread almost 4 years old, talking about accurate facts from 13 years ago.

There is nothing "wrong" with the post -- but you took the whole thread completely out of context.

[Jaaron2]

Two Things... First I travel a ton for work and at any given time have 300,000-500,000 hilton points. We typically use them to Pay for rooms for our kids sports tournaments. We have stayed in category 7 and 8 rooms and have mostly been less than impressed. They in no way compare to the accommodations we have thru DVC ( im not saying they are all that way). Based on my own experience and travels DVC is a great value .

We just got back from a 10 day stay, we own 300 pts at BCV and 250 at AKV. our favorite resort is BCV. We are looking to add on a 50 pt contract and are trying to decide between longer term and our favorite resort . We are really struggling with this ( probably because we just stayed in a grand villa at AKV) . With BCV being so small there is a definate advantage to owing there (maybe more so than any other resort... IMHO) that will probably lead us to adding on there even tho the years of ownership are less.