What if...

[Peter Pirate]

What if the disney brass green-lighted & fast tracked an exact replica of TDS for Orlando? What do you, my fellow Rumor & Business Board cohorts, think would be the outcome?

I believe TDS would be hugely successful. The lines would be murdurous, the Resorts would be full but I think AK, Epcot & The Studios would eventully suffer tremendous losses.

Further, I believe if something like TDS were ever brought to Orlando we would see more "caste-class offerings", like special offers to Deluxe Resort guests only (ala Sunrise safari) for a substantial extra price and Deluxe FP exclusives, etc. and this is the main reason why I don't believe we'll ever see the new, fully complete, state of the art Park in Orlando. I beleive we can hope for the "best parts" to be imported to existing Disney Parks, but as a stand alone, I think it causes too many problems...

I know many will disagree, so convince me how & why it would be feasible...
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[HBK]

the main problem I see is saturation. Orlando is too saturated as it is. Disney corperate is looking to grow the crowd, not keep what they have. The only way TDS could be justified is if more and more guests abandon WDW for days @ Seaworld, IOA, Universal, et al. Then they could justify giving these people more of a reason to go back with a new park which tops all of em.

But that hasn't happened....yet.

We'll see what happens.

P.S. there's already a caste system....why do you think Disney would hold off on TDS because of it? Why would they hold of on introducing a new park which they can offer more high priced perks for? The only reason ground hasn't been broken is because of the saturation of Orlando.

[Peter Pirate]

Sorry for being unclear. I didn't mean the escalation of the "caste" system would be a reason for Disney to not proceed, but rather was pointing out, from my own perspective, that the ramifications of a new Park would broaden the economic crevasse...
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[HBK]

I guess I'm struggling to understand this thread then....are you looking for a reason Disney should build ODS?

I think it should be built to combat an attendance slide. People are staying away from DAK in droves. A while back, IOA was making gains attendance wise whereas DAK was loosing it's attendance numbers. How those numbers are now, I'm not sure, but I'd wager that not much has changed.

Now that being said, I don't think the answer to this question is to build a new park. I think they should re-inforce the current parks, especially DAK, and then proceed to the new park. People want to see the new stuff. If there is new stuff in the each park, I think you'd see canibilization kept to a minimum.

P.S. Watch the Celebration thing...I think AV said it, or maybe it was Hill.....it seems Disney promised them they would be within spitting distance of the fifth park. If it's held off and the residents file a class action....anything could be possible.

[Peter Pirate]

HBK, there are many, many people...Friends on this board, who feel cheated that TDS was not, or is not likely to be built here and routinely criticize management for the failure to bring TDS to Orlando. I want to hear why they think it should be brought here vs. why it shouldn't. You may not have had a great grip on the question, but you answered it quite well, I think...

Scoop, I agree that the other Parks have the room for piecemeal expansion and it would short circuit many potential problems by simply importing, IMO...

I do think saturation (Orlando) is a huge issue, and the recent events have shown that growth, for one reason or another, will not last forever.
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[Douglas Dubh]

"A fifth gate should NEVER be opened until the existing parks have been fully developed."

I agree completely with this, but once it happens, I'd like to see a DisneySea in WDW (unless they build it in Texas instead). I would rather not, however, have an exact replica of Tokyo's. I think it should be substantially different, and include live sea animals and shows to keep people who might be tempted to leave property and go to SeaWorld (yeah, I know they could put this in AK, but I think there's plenty of other stuff that could go into AK). Epcot's Living Seas could then be redone to make it more futuristic, and place more emphasis on colonizing or utilizing the seas and less on sea life.

"Indy, Jules Verne, Journey to the Center could easily be themed to fit within the AK theme."

I'm not so sure about this. I think it's important for the attractions in AK to keep the emphasis on animals. Many of TDS's rides could make good additions to the other three parks however, if they don't end up in an ODS.

[DVC-Landbaron]

... Is that the sound of champagne being opened? Could it be we have reason to celebrate? Is it possible that the Pirate and the Baron have finally found some common ground?

A resounding YES!!! to all of the above!! :bounce:


My friend Scoop writes: A fifth gate should NEVER be opened until the existing parks have been fully developed.ABSOLUTELY!!! I'll even go further than that. A fourth gate should never have been built until the others were further developed!!

Let us all say it together:

NO FIFTH GATE!!!!

At last, the Capt… I mean the Pirate and I agree!!! ;)

[YoHo]

Doug, you've hit on some points I've made off and on for a while now, although I approach them from a slightly different angle. To me, there is nothing in Tokyo Disney Seas that wouldn't have an equally appropriate home in a current WDW park. Jules Verne and the similar stuff would actually be more appropriate in Tomorrowland. (Jules Verne after all is one of the sources for the Theme) The Area based on the Little Mermaid could be part of a beastly Kingdom. Stromrider could go into Epcot Etc.

Actually, They could use a large number of the ideas in TDS in the current parks to fill them out. I would be disappointed if they added a fifth gate without any real unique theme.

[seashoreCM]

There is a huge section of vacant Disney land south of Celebration (the real e.p.c.o.t.). That is probably what was meant to become a fifth park within spitting distance.

So long as Disney is cutting back within the existing facilities, any fifth park is going to be a long way off in the future.

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[airlarry!]

Baron. Hmm...I find myself pressing the 'disagree' button for one of the few times since I've been posting.

It is not that I don't want the Fab Four to be expanded, trust me, it is that I am enamored with the DisneySeas concept.

The question Peter --I think-- is asking is what would happen if DisneySeas was opened in Orlando. I think we would all agree that unless the 'problems' inherent with an incomplete 4th gate are fixed, then we would see increased cannibalization into the 4th gate's daily visits.

So there is my answer, Peter, and I think it is in agreement with what you said.

HOWEVER, if the question is should we build DisneySeas? Well...........that is where I have to ask that the question be rephrased, your honor.

I want DisneySeas AND 4th park expansion! How can I choose between bringing in the second greatest concept for a Walt-style amusement park and filling out the beautiful Animal Kingdom park? How can anyone pick one or the other? I want them both!

If forced to choose, I would say....build DisneySeas, IF it is built with the same quality and guest presentation as the one in Tokyo. One of us here on the board is just going to have to back the money truck up and head to Japan for a complete report. That way, we can know if Marc B's articles are really true--that TDS is the new Disneyland.

[YoHo]

Again I point out that There is no reason to build Disney Seas since everything in it can be applied to an existing Park at WDW. You'd get all the greatnessof TDS, but no 5th gate.

[Peter Pirate]

airlarry (and others), while my post had specific examples for discussion, these turns are what I hope for when I post and that's how we can best share & maybe even learn a little, now and then...

Is it the minority opinion that Orlando just may be "overdone"? I can't help but think thats a serious concern for Disney.
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[larworth]

Disney is having a hard time convincing itself that building another E ticket in WDW makes sense. I can’t see them believing there is a business case for another gate. Unless, we’re talking about some kind of “Cove intimate type” experience.

I also assume DCA has tainted any other ideas Disney may have toyed with for other non traditional Disney parks that might require a separate gate (like a coaster park). Sounds funny, but building a coaster park today might be a better proposition than it was several years ago. Why, because the great coaster race seems to have slowed considerably. Anyone putting in a state-of-the art coaster today has a much better chance of it remaining novel for a longer period of time than it would of a couple of years ago. That still wouldn’t make it the right thing to do though.

When I heard people complain “why no TDS here”, I figured many were really only asking Disney to use the same standards of “doing it right” that they saw being applied in TDS. Versus what they saw as the standards used in DCA and for some of the recent WDW additions.

Clearly, AK has not lived up to Disney’s expectations, but has it really been a bad financial decision? Returns may be lower than they were used to, but it could still be returning an acceptable (versus and exceptional) return on capital? USF was able to stay in business many years with less than 10MM visitors and they must have an even bigger asset base than the AK.

Scoop, your list of priorities is interesting. My initial reaction is to put your #2 much further down on the list. No argument that the films are long past their prime, but I’m not sure this area is the most in need.

[DVC-Landbaron]

Scoop!!! This is indeed a memorable day!!!! Even we agree. WOW!! So much so that I can't find anything in your entire post to either highlight or disagree with!! All I can say is:

WELL SAID!!!!


:bounce:

[DVC-Landbaron]

Sorry about the two posts in a row, but it seems larworth was posting as I was writing.When I heard people complain "why no TDS here", I figured many were really only asking Disney to use the same standards of "doing it right" that they saw being applied in TDS. Versus what they saw as the standards used in DCA and for some of the recent WDW additions.

Well said!! Ditto!!!!

:bounce:

[Eeyore2U]

:D :D God Bless Us, one and all!!! :D :D

[daannzzz]

Well, this is no fun. I really enjoyed reading the debates!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I agree that a 5th gate is unwise at this time and that the other four parks need some attention. I also would hate to think of the different attractions from TDS divided up amonst four parks. While they are certain to be wonderful attractions on their own ( and wedged into the WDW parks), I really love the way they all fit togethar in the Tokyo park. It would be ashame for them to break up the theme of that park just to fit the attractions in Florida.

[YoHo]

Personally, I think that the Parks in Flordia have better themes then the parks in Tokyo, BUT Tokyo has attractions that stick to the theme. So to me, premise weak, execution GOOD. Whereas I think AK, or the new Tomorrowland are Excellent Premises that are not fully flushed out. This wouldn't be like creating bugtown and putting its tough to be a bug in it. More like putting Star Tours in The Studios instead of TL.
Don't forget, while the ride is somewhat different, Indy is still essentially a clone from Disneyland. So Even TDS has its clones

[raidermatt]

First off, I'm not convinced Orlando is overdone. I'm not dismissing it, but we hear the same thing about Las Vegas all the time, yet resorts continue to go up and flourish, if done right. Disney and its competitors need to be careful not to outpace the potential for growth, but I do believe that potential is still there.

I also have no real problem with a 5th gate. Since the original question was not just any 5th gate, but specifically ODS, I'll address that. I'm going to make one assumption, and that is that ODS means higher quality than recent additions to the Orlando parks. My opinion is that if ODS were green-lighted, it would signify a shift in philosophy from Disney. If a 5th gate of higher quality were going to be built, it would follow that additions to the other 4 parks would be of the same high quality. That works for me.

While I want to see expansions/improvements continue at the existing four parks, I don't think its realistic to expect Disney to max-out all 4 before building a 5th gate. I think larworth is onto something with his return on capital comments. By opening "unfinished" parks, Disney can make adjustments based on customer feedback and market conditions. As we see with DCA, what Disney thinks will work is not always right. Had DCA opened with the expansion room already filled, there's a good chance the park wouldn't be much more successful than it already is. By opening "unfinished", there is less tearing down and starting over that must be done.

Let's face it, MK is essentially a finished park. Perhaps one more "mountain", but I wouldn't expect much more than that. Yes, it will be ever-changing, but I don't see much of a net gain, beyone maybe the possible mountain. Epcot is essentially finished as well. Maybe a net gain in the showcase area can be expected at some point, but calling Epcot unfinished would be unfair. Same with MGM. There maybe some expansion, but not on a large scale. AK does need at least one more land, but that doesn't mean Disney is not satisfied with current returns (recession aside). I can see plans for a 5th gate moving forward concurrently with a gradual AK expansion.

All that said (as if it wasn't enough), I doubt we would get a finished ODS on opening day if one were to be built. I think Disney is sold on the "unfinished" opening strategy, and I can't really argue with it when it comes to Orlando. With three mature parks, and another on its way, why take the risk of opening a full-scale bomb? With the concern over Orlando's saturation point, gradual expansion makes the most sense.

[airlarry!]

If I were the Head Cheese, I would give AK got their two new lands (not necessarily at the same time, but on some kind of timetable) and get ODS built. Then do a rotating schedule among the Big Three (one park gets an E*ticket, one park gets a *C/D ticket, one park gets a B*ticket or some such schedule each year...so that every three years, each of the big ones gets a big addition to hype).

But I hate, I shudder, I frown upon the idea of TDS getting cannibalized and spread out over our four. Then you would truly have three parks built upon firm Walt ideas--give them a Kingdom (Magic, Animal, Sea) with the hub & spoke design anchored by big ticket rides but filled to the brim with family activities and wonderful theming/landscaping. I bet there is a Walt Quote in there somewhere that fits apropos.

[Another Voice]

The expectation has been for a long time that WDW would grow to a point where it wasn’t a “single” resort anymore, i.e. people don’t go there to power march through all of the parks and all of the gates on a single trip. If you notice the development around Epcot, there was a deliberate attempt made to create two “resort areas”. Week-long family vacationers going to The Magic Kingdom, adults on long weekends and conventioneers heading to EPCOT Center (the attendance model here was Las Vegas).

Mr. Scoop is right when he says the average guest visits every 5-7 years. The problem Disney faces is that new rides don’t change that pattern. It’s not that Orlando is saturated – the entire country is saturated with themed roller coasters, trendy themed shopping malls and restaurants that look like the Amazon. The Disney brand itself is super saturated with every strip mall in the country with a Disney Store, the Mouse on everything from bathroom soap to milk products to bottled water (that’s coming in a few weeks) and most of the people who want to go to WDW already making a least one trip. The sad fact is that WDW ain’t that special anymore for most people.

This came crashing down on Disney with the openings of Animal Kingdom and California Adventure. The general public has received both with less than enthusiasm and both management teams were left scrambling. If it wasn’t for park hopping, both would have closed by now. The company had based its plan on the premise that new rides won’t get people to visit more often, but new parks - any kind of new park - would. It was a given that people would show up (after all, both new parks had Disney's in the title - what else could insure success). The emphasis was on maximizing profit, profit and profit.

But Disney forgot to put one factor into their profit spreadsheets – quality counts. Both parks were far too interested in fine tuning the guest-spending-per-square-foot factor they forget to build in any appeal. Being simply just one notch higher than Busch Gardens and Six Flags doesn’t thrill people into spending thousands of dollars. People in general are far better at calculating their value per dollar spent levels than Disney is at figuring out their own “perceived value to investment” numbers.

So, DisneySea. For the last two years the restaurants around town have been filled with Mouse-suits chortling over how much money they were “bilking” from those “stupid” Japanese. The ones “foolish” enough to build such an expensive park while they were the “smart ones in the game” who were soon to be rolling in rooms of cash trucked in from their “economically sound” California Adventure.

Now I read here an argument that says, basically, Disney shouldn’t build a world-class experience because it will be too competitive for the mediocre parks that already exist. At best, the tightly and coherently themed park should be drawn and quartered and its severed bits distributed around on the assumption that the parts somehow function all on their own.

People will pay for quality as witnessed in Tokyo. And people will avoid shames and sloppy work as seen in Anaheim and Orlando. Build something worthy of the public’s money and they will flock in droves to WDW. Continue to ignore that fact and WDW will continue to close resorts.

[YoHo]

On the Contrary Mr. Voice I am not against a Fifth gate. ANd I can only agree with you with regards to the TDS/DCA situation.
My concern is that Disney Seas may not be the correct theme for orlando. Maybe I'm over reacting, but To me, A number of Disney Seas themed areas have been designed in to existing Parks (both those that are successful and those not so successful.) I don't want to dismantle Disney Seas to shore up the existing parks so much as I want to do it to keep some form of logic in the park layout.
Come up with a new Theme for a 5th park (I don't know what, that's what brainstorming sessions are for.). If the theme of the Park is done well, then it will be a good park.

I'm just for cohesivness.