720L

01-14-2007, 11:56 AM

My DH quickly put together some number to help us decide on DVC.

We are still trying to convince ourselves that buying into DVC is the best

option, financially. Consider the following.

If you purchased Disney stock in 1987 when it was $5 per share, which is now

worth $35 per share, you would have a 600% return on your investment or 30%

per year averaged for 20 years. So if instead of buying into DVC you bought

$15,000 worth of Disney stock today, 20 years from now it would be worth

$90,000.

Taking a 10 night stay once a year in a moderate resort at rack rate in

today's dollars and figuring a 3.12% compounded annual rate increase for the

next 20 years would cost you $45,190 total cost. Do the same calculation

for a deluxe at rack rate and with a 30% discount would give $72,487 and

$50,740 respectively.

At the end of 20 years take the $90,000 balance of your Disney stock

investment minus $45,190 total moderate resort cost over 20 years puts your

Disney stock value at $44,810. This is money that you would not have if you

had bought into DVC 20 years prior. Now if you subtract your Disney stock

value of $44,810 from the total you paid for moderate resort stays over 20

years, $45,190, you get $380, so essentially that is all it cost you to stay

at moderate resorts over the last 20 years.

$90,000 value of Disney stock at the end of 20 years

-$45,190 Total cost over 20 years to pay rack rate at a moderate resort

=$44,810 Real value of Disney stock adjusted for paying for moderate stays

-$45,190 Total cost for 20 years of moderate stays

=$ 380 Total cost to stay at moderate resorts over 20 years.

Now lets look at a rack rate deluxe stay for 10 nights each year for 20

years.

$90,000 value of Disney stock at the end of 20 years

-$72,487 Total cost over 20 years to pay rack rate at a deluxe resort

=$17,513 Real value of Disney stock adjusted for paying for deluxe stays

-$72,487 Total cost for 20 years of full price deluxe stays

=$54,974 Total cost to stay at deluxe resorts over 20 years or $2748 per

year.

10 night stay per year for 20 years at a deluxe with a 30% discount

$90,000 value of Disney stock at the end of 20 years

-$50,740 Total cost over 20 years to pay rack rate at a deluxe resort

=$39,260 Real value of Disney stock adjusted for paying for deluxe stays

-$50,740 Total cost for 20 years of 30% discounted deluxe stays

=$11,480 Total cost to stay at deluxe resorts over 20 years or $574 per

year.

NOTE: $574 per year is less than your dues would be each year for 20 years.

Bottom line, the only way DVC makes sense is if you paid full price for

deluxe resorts had you not joined DVC.

Now the disclaimer, the assumptions based in my calculations assume Disney

stock will perform at least as good as it did over the past 20 years for the

next 20 years. Generally historical data is no predictor for future returns

on a stock. A 30% discount at deluxe resorts is also not assured, but not

unrealistic. I also did not assume that the yearly DVC fees would be also

invested if you bought stock rather than join DVC, if you factor this in as

well it comes out even more favorable to invest in stock over joining DVC.

We are still trying to convince ourselves that buying into DVC is the best

option, financially. Consider the following.

If you purchased Disney stock in 1987 when it was $5 per share, which is now

worth $35 per share, you would have a 600% return on your investment or 30%

per year averaged for 20 years. So if instead of buying into DVC you bought

$15,000 worth of Disney stock today, 20 years from now it would be worth

$90,000.

Taking a 10 night stay once a year in a moderate resort at rack rate in

today's dollars and figuring a 3.12% compounded annual rate increase for the

next 20 years would cost you $45,190 total cost. Do the same calculation

for a deluxe at rack rate and with a 30% discount would give $72,487 and

$50,740 respectively.

At the end of 20 years take the $90,000 balance of your Disney stock

investment minus $45,190 total moderate resort cost over 20 years puts your

Disney stock value at $44,810. This is money that you would not have if you

had bought into DVC 20 years prior. Now if you subtract your Disney stock

value of $44,810 from the total you paid for moderate resort stays over 20

years, $45,190, you get $380, so essentially that is all it cost you to stay

at moderate resorts over the last 20 years.

$90,000 value of Disney stock at the end of 20 years

-$45,190 Total cost over 20 years to pay rack rate at a moderate resort

=$44,810 Real value of Disney stock adjusted for paying for moderate stays

-$45,190 Total cost for 20 years of moderate stays

=$ 380 Total cost to stay at moderate resorts over 20 years.

Now lets look at a rack rate deluxe stay for 10 nights each year for 20

years.

$90,000 value of Disney stock at the end of 20 years

-$72,487 Total cost over 20 years to pay rack rate at a deluxe resort

=$17,513 Real value of Disney stock adjusted for paying for deluxe stays

-$72,487 Total cost for 20 years of full price deluxe stays

=$54,974 Total cost to stay at deluxe resorts over 20 years or $2748 per

year.

10 night stay per year for 20 years at a deluxe with a 30% discount

$90,000 value of Disney stock at the end of 20 years

-$50,740 Total cost over 20 years to pay rack rate at a deluxe resort

=$39,260 Real value of Disney stock adjusted for paying for deluxe stays

-$50,740 Total cost for 20 years of 30% discounted deluxe stays

=$11,480 Total cost to stay at deluxe resorts over 20 years or $574 per

year.

NOTE: $574 per year is less than your dues would be each year for 20 years.

Bottom line, the only way DVC makes sense is if you paid full price for

deluxe resorts had you not joined DVC.

Now the disclaimer, the assumptions based in my calculations assume Disney

stock will perform at least as good as it did over the past 20 years for the

next 20 years. Generally historical data is no predictor for future returns

on a stock. A 30% discount at deluxe resorts is also not assured, but not

unrealistic. I also did not assume that the yearly DVC fees would be also

invested if you bought stock rather than join DVC, if you factor this in as

well it comes out even more favorable to invest in stock over joining DVC.