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View Full Version : Do you think DVC sales will slow down or continue to grow?


drakethib
04-03-2006, 09:46 PM
This is not a resort knocking thread, so please don't take it that way.

My wife and I were talking and so far I think there are around 100,000 DVC members.

While we all know DVC is a great deal (IMHO anyway) you almost have to be a Disney Nut to shell out a so much money so that you can visit Disney over and over again.

BEFORE THE FLAMES START I AM A DISNEY NUT & A DVC OWNER !!!!

I just wonder if it will slow down or when it will hit a point of deminishing returns.

I would love to see how membership has grown in the last few years.(i.e # of members per year).


Thoughts?

DrTomorrow
04-04-2006, 12:19 AM
At first I thought that there's always going to be another generation of Disney Nuts, but on further reflection I'm not sure. DW and I (in our 40s) grew up during a big Disney time, seeing Snow White at drive-ins, all those wacky live action movies ("The CPU that wore Nikes" or something), Lady & the Tramp, etc. DS (25) grew up during that wonderful time of Little Mermaid, Aladdin, BATB, etc. Since we have no DGS or DGD yet, I don't know if Disney is as much as part of today's youth as it was for us and our son.

My point is this: there will always be new folks who have enough money to buy into DVC, the question is will they still want to....

JimMIA
04-04-2006, 06:40 AM
Since we have no DGS or DGD yet, I don't know if Disney is as much as part of today's youth as it was for us and our son.HA! :rotfl2:

DDnow4goingon24 is pleased to advise that Disney is VERY MUCH a part of her Princess/Tinkerbell life! Her closet is lined with Princess costumes (which of course she outgrows, and will have to be replaced), her walls are plastered with Disney stuff, her DVD collection is probably 80% Disney films, her recent birthday party was a Tink theme, and her home page on her computer is Playhouse Disney (which incidentally, she navigates completely by herself).

When we asked her to make a birthday wish, it was, "I wish we could go back to Disney World!" (We hadn't been in 3 months).

I think DVC will be just fine.

(Gotta go. Have to put her lunch in her Princess lunchbox and grab her Princess backpack, and take her to school!)

browniemtb
04-04-2006, 07:13 AM
I would agree with JimMIA....We have a 5 and 3 year old and Disney is a huge part of their lives. Between toon Disney and the plain Disney channel on TV to Disney software for the computer, princess dress up, disney videos, and those Disney pins.....they still trade back and forth. Disney will be a part of every generation in one way or another. When people visit WDW for the first time they either become Disney nuts or not. DVC will live a long life......just look at ROFR.....if people weren't buying Disney would stop buying.
Brownie

bom_noite
04-04-2006, 07:22 AM
I would agree with everyone else - I know lots of younger families that believe in WDW. And, the Pixar thing should mean they are coming out with lots new characters the kids can identify with.

But, I do not think the "brand message" of clean wholesome family fun is as strong as when we were young!

sean-1966
04-04-2006, 08:07 AM
I was talking ot my 2 year old niece yesterday and I asked her what her favourite movie is? "Lilo and Stitch" was her reply. I guess Disney is part of every generation. I remember being a kid watching Wonderful World of Disney on Sunday nights and hoping that they were going to play a cartoon. I've often thought about that and wonder if that is why I am such a Diz nut now.

pouncingpluto
04-04-2006, 09:11 AM
I think it depends on the kids. You know, my brother and I were raised by Disney-loving parents, and we each independently decided to buy DVC this year. My husband and I don't have children, but my brother does. The kids had a few Disney favorites (lately it's Snow White, believe it or not) before their first trip to WDW at ages 5 and 2, but now they seem to be especially interested in Disney and very excited to go back again! I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them turns out to be an adult Disney nut like me.

cobbler
04-04-2006, 09:11 AM
I think there will always be highs and lows. Slow sales now I think is just a by product of the economy. New housing sales slumped in Feb I hear on the news - at least in my area. Haven't heard for March yet.

Also with the interest rates being raised - AGAIN, that doesn't really help. People are getting more debt conscious, sort-of.

If we have a booming economy again I think sales will pick up.

The baby boomers are starting to retire, the last half of them (which is my mom) is starting to think about it, so that means my generation (not gen X, I am a year to late for that) is starting to settle down, have families and starting vacations so we will be the ones that will introduce Disney to our kids and keep the trend going.

My son is all about Disney right now, he keeps saying he wants me to take him to "breakfast house" (This is what he calls the Contemporary because we have breakfast at Chef Mickey's there every trip).

But I think it will stagnate for a while. I do see that when some of the older owners pass, their kids may not want to keep their timeshare, sell it and such. I think there will always be a renewal but not sure how high it will go. Ok, this last part was really more rambling but you get the idea.

elijahpep
04-04-2006, 09:31 AM
My mother in law took my husband ( he was the youngest pirate: ) many times when he was younger. His older siblings didn't go with them as they were much older. Her introduction of WDW has stuck. Only one of his siblings, between the 2 of them, have been once :( in the 15 years I've known them .

She then, took us and our kids a few years ago :grouphug: helping our kids become fans of Disney. Through her love pixiedust: for this place and all things Disney, she has enabled 2 more of her generations find that place where Dreams come true!~

That being said, we have now purchased 2 sets of points for DVC. We have explained to our children this will be there for them when they are grown :hourglass and have their own kiddies. I think DVC aids in Disney's future success(and vice versa) and hope it continues to allow folks everywhere to share in the Magic of Disney for years to come!~

~DW ::MinnieMo

BrianD
04-04-2006, 10:17 AM
I don't know about where you live, but where I am the economy is doing VERY well. I don't see the economic slow down. In fact it's picked up over the last two years.

IF sales have slowed, I think it is because of the current building resort, SSR. I think the resort add-ons (BCV, BWV, & VWL) have more appeal because of their location and their theming. People who loved staying at the WL, we ecstatic when VWL was built, because it meant they could "own" a villa at their favorite resort. The same goes for BCV. Some folks love BC/YC, and that pool! BWV same thing. And how about their location! SSR is not an add-on to anything, and it's not a terribly whymsical theming. (That being said, I think it is a very nice looking resort.) It is close to DTD, but it's not the same as being able to walk into Epcot, or take a boat to MK. Also, SSR is a very large resort, so between that and the not as appealing reasons mentioned above, it will take a while to sell. But I'd be willing to bet dollars to donughts that the next DVC resort will be an add-on, and if it is where the rumors are pointing towards, you better believe it will sell out very quickly. I've talked to several people, myself included, who say if they ever put a DVC on the monorail, they would buy in an instant. And even if they don't, I may buy resale from BCV next year.

cobbler
04-04-2006, 10:28 AM
I don't know about where you live, but where I am the economy is doing VERY well. I don't see the economic slow down. In fact it's picked up over the last two years.


I live in MI. We have been hit super hard with numerous plant closings from Delphi, to Electrolux to GM layoffs and the whole 9.

BrianD
04-04-2006, 10:33 AM
I live in MI. We have been hit super hard with numerous plant closings from Delphi, to Electrolux to GM layoffs and the whole 9.


That really stinks. I have heard about MI getting hit hard lately. My point was though I don't think it's a national economic downturn that could be slowing sales. If you look at how things were in 2002 & 2003 when the national economy was struggling, yet BCV was selling like hot cakes.

DisFlan
04-04-2006, 10:37 AM
I grew up on the Wonderful World of Disney, too. Prof. Von Drake and his lessons, Daniel Boone etc. Younger people have Stitch, Woody and Buzz. "Disney" changes a little from generation to generation, which is good.

Disney, the parks and DVC are bound to peak at some point in the future, but that's probably a long way away. This depends on Disney as much as consumers. Disney needs to make good decisions and upgrades, and they need to keep quality at a high level over a very long period. They need to adequately fulfill expectations. If they don't, the "magic" of Disney will melt away. And DVC sales would respond accordingly.

DisFlan

gammieatwdw
04-04-2006, 10:42 AM
That really stinks. I have heard about MI getting hit hard lately. My point was though I don't think it's a national economic downturn that could be slowing sales. If you look at how things were in 2002 & 2003 when the national economy was struggling, yet BCV was selling like hot cakes.



BrianD is right. Sales have nothing to do with a Disney generation or kids. Parents make the decsion to buy or not. Slow sales have to do with SSR. If and when they add a more appealing resort with a better location (monorail) that resort will sell out in a year or less.

1000th happy haunt
04-04-2006, 10:44 AM
DVC is not a separate entity, but part of the whole Disney family. So some of it really depends on people like Bob Iger and John Lasseter, and I have a lot of faith in both of them.

John Lasseter has been put in charge of Imagineering, and one of the first things he did was walk into Tony Baxter's office and want to know all the ideas Baxter had for the parks that hadn't been put into motion yet. If Lasseter can update, refurb, and create new things for the parks, then demand for the parks will increase, thereby increasing demand for DVC.

And Bob Iger is responsible for approving all those new things.

And DVC is already testing the waters by offering new vacations outside of the parks.

As I said, I have faith in the new management team, so I think demand for DVC will continue to rise. It may take a while because of timelines (it takes a while to build a new attraction) and economic recessions, but it will continue to go up (especially if there's a DVC added to the Poly and/or Animal Kingdom Lodge).

DrTomorrow
04-04-2006, 05:08 PM
BrianD is right. Sales have nothing to do with a Disney generation or kids. Parents make the decsion to buy or not. Slow sales have to do with SSR. If and when they add a more appealing resort with a better location (monorail) that resort will sell out in a year or less. I politely disagree. IMHO it has everything to do with adults - yes, they make the purchase decision - who were raised in / or fell in love with a Disney atmosphere. Look at the marketing: Own a Piece of the Magic! You can't tell me that someone who visited WDW once and had an "eh" response is going to shell out the $$$ to buy DVC. As Dean has pointed out, Orlando has many top notch timeshares - at lower costs than Disney - if one wants to vacation in central Florida but doesn't need a fix of pixie dust.

As for economic issues: while BrianD is correct, and some regions of the country are doing better than others, there is a perception that things are not as secure as they once were. Right or wrong, people are worried about jobs (layoffs, outsourcing, downsizing, bankruptcy), interest rate hikes, medical cost increases, etc. DVC is very much a luxury item; when people are concerned about the continuation of their disposable income, they are more likely to defer just such a luxury purchase, at least for a while.

IMHO - YMMV

bom_noite
04-04-2006, 05:50 PM
As I said, I have faith in the new management team

I hope you are right! I was a bit fearful when Igor took over - since he is a TV guy! But, that is not fair to label anyone!

I was impressed when: 1) Roy Jr. came back and 2) Pixar was inked. Those were good signs!

Time will tell - let's hope he put's some time and money in the parks. They have been a cash cow for a few years - lets hope they re-invest!

shantay1008
04-04-2006, 06:39 PM
Do you think that a lot of people used the equity in their homes to make luxury purchases such as DVC over the past few years while interest rates were so low?

DVC Sadie
04-04-2006, 06:55 PM
Do you think that a lot of people used the equity in their homes to make luxury purchases such as DVC over the past few years while interest rates were so low?


Yes, I do think a lot of people took out HEL and not only for DVC while the interest rate was low. Now that interest rates are rising people do not have as much descretionary income. That can also affect sales in DVC.

bigsmooth
04-04-2006, 07:48 PM
Do you think that a lot of people used the equity in their homes to make luxury purchases such as DVC over the past few years while interest rates were so low?

Absolutely. The rates set by the Fed have a huge impact on discretionary spending, especialy in the day where equity lines are fairly common and the refinancing boom expose a lot of people to equity lines. So rising rates will impact what people use them for. I remember reading a study that accounted for the money either put into or taken out of the economy for each quarter point decrease or increase in short term interest rates. It is pretty impressive. I financed my DVC purchase when the interest rate on my equity line was much lower than it is now. Would I purchase today at the current rate? Probably, but who knows. I'd definitely agonize the purchase more, perhaps trying to come up with more cash upfront.

Now does that impact SSR sales? I'm sure it does, but among many other factors. I both like and dislike the SSR debate. Personally, I like SSR, BW and BCV for certain reasons. If they added on to the Contemporary, I would never consider it, and may only try it once. My tastes may be in the minority, but I like the resorts I mentioned because of the dining available, the Spa (for my wife), the night life. I do think Disney should be concerned about supply and demand. Rather than building something as big as SSR, perhaps they should focus on smaller locations spread across different themed areas. That drives up operating costs, but I can understand the appeal. I am looking forward to trying each and every resort at least once.

Joni
04-04-2006, 08:16 PM
I'm not sure what will happen to DVC in the next few years. I just know we joined DVC after spending so much each year and realizing that if we bought we would eventually have something to show for our money. We don't go for a lot of the reasons that people do with young families. We have 3 boys and our youngest is 16 and even when he was young would never go near a character. Our love of WDW is for the safety of a vacation place, you don't need a car(even thought we drive there a lot), the countless hours of walking and people watching, the wonderful places to eat out, just hanging out around our resort and then deciding to walk into a park just to do one ride and walk around it. We always wonder how long DVC will be popular. I try not to worry about it because it works for us and we always have a great vacation. I don't try to explain it to anyone anymore because they will never understand. Right now I like to know I can go and always have a good safe time at my timeshare. I'm not sure sales have slowed down or that SSR is so big and will take that long to sell. BWV, BCV, and WLV were all small so they didn't not take so long. Just an observation.

PinkTink63
04-05-2006, 04:28 PM
At first I thought that there's always going to be another generation of Disney Nuts, but on further reflection I'm not sure. DW and I (in our 40s) grew up during a big Disney time, seeing Snow White at drive-ins, all those wacky live action movies ("The CPU that wore Nikes" or something), Lady & the Tramp, etc. DS (25) grew up during that wonderful time of Little Mermaid, Aladdin, BATB, etc. Since we have no DGS or DGD yet, I don't know if Disney is as much as part of today's youth as it was for us and our son.

My point is this: there will always be new folks who have enough money to buy into DVC, the question is will they still want to....

I am in my 40's and grew up watching TWWOWD on Sunday nights. My brothers and I couldn't wait for it to come on. I remember going to the drive-in to see "The Jungle Book." Those where the days!
I think it is definitely a different generation of "Disney Nuts", but none the less, Disney fans! Because of modern technology and commercialism, I think it is more "out there", than ever before. As long as Disney continues to grow, so will it's fans.
My son is almost 12 and he loves Disney and I think he always will. His likes about Disney have changed over the years and I'm sure will continue to change, but it is part of his being. He thinks that becoming an Imagineer would be the coolest job! It has become a sort of family tradition for us.

Stephanie

Sammie
04-05-2006, 05:58 PM
This is not a resort knocking thread, so please don't take it that way.

My wife and I were talking and so far I think there are around 100,000 DVC members.

While we all know DVC is a great deal (IMHO anyway) you almost have to be a Disney Nut to shell out a so much money so that you can visit Disney over and over again.

BEFORE THE FLAMES START I AM A DISNEY NUT & A DVC OWNER !!!!

I just wonder if it will slow down or when it will hit a point of deminishing returns.

I would love to see how membership has grown in the last few years.(i.e # of members per year).


Thoughts?


Actually the number is closer to 300,000.

fishermouse
04-06-2006, 12:49 PM
This is not a resort knocking thread, so please don't take it that way.

My wife and I were talking and so far I think there are around 100,000 DVC members.

While we all know DVC is a great deal (IMHO anyway) you almost have to be a Disney Nut to shell out a so much money so that you can visit Disney over and over again.

BEFORE THE FLAMES START I AM A DISNEY NUT & A DVC OWNER !!!!

I just wonder if it will slow down or when it will hit a point of deminishing returns.

I would love to see how membership has grown in the last few years.(i.e # of members per year).


Thoughts?
My DW is doing her part to keep sales up. :banana:

keys2kingdom
04-06-2006, 01:39 PM
Actually the number is closer to 300,000.


Sammie, did you mean 100,000? I have some paperwork that shows it at just under 95,000 at the end of last October.

shellbelle1971
04-06-2006, 01:52 PM
I politely disagree. IMHO it has everything to do with adults - yes, they make the purchase decision - who were raised in / or fell in love with a Disney atmosphere. Look at the marketing: Own a Piece of the Magic!
IMHO - YMMV

Dr. T, I have tremendous respect for your well-thought-through posts and your take on many issues. One thing I have wondered, which would make Disney geniuses with the SSR-4-grown-ups idea you mentioned, is whether decreasing birthrates might contribute to slowing growth at DVC & WDW.

It just seems like fewer kids overall might mean a smaller group of potential disneyholics in the future. Maybe WDW's long-term outlook hinges on their ability to successfully attract the grown-up market? Note, I'm not saying that there aren't plenty of no-kids (either -yet, or -ever, or -anymore) people out there who love all things disney. Just that IMO, the execs are/might be wise to consider expanding their appeal in that market.

minnieandmickey
04-06-2006, 06:16 PM
What I don't understand is if sales are low why do they keep increasing the point price, I believe they have gone up twice in the last 6 mo? It doesn't make sense why they would want to do that. But I do love being a new member and look forward to adding on either at my home resort or at another.

simzac
04-06-2006, 06:29 PM
I also believe that SSR sales are better than most people say they are. JMO I also believe that DVC sales will continue to thrive for many years to come. :goodvibes

Sammie
04-06-2006, 07:49 PM
Sammie, did you mean 100,000? I have some paperwork that shows it at just under 95,000 at the end of last October.

I was told recently by DVC management total membership is near 300K.

keys2kingdom
04-06-2006, 08:11 PM
I was told recently by DVC management total membership is near 300K.


Wow that is amazing! I had no idea. Wonder if that huge jump was due to F&F.

PamOKW
04-06-2006, 08:18 PM
I don't see where sales of SSR have been slow --- heck they're building as fast as they can and the announcement of Phase 2 was much sooner than they expected. And the price wouldn't be going up if there was a problem with sales.

I'm sure the rise in interest rates may have had some effect -- but with the economy getting stronger I imagine people will adjust to the new rates, which are still lower than they've been in a long time.

Sammie
04-06-2006, 08:40 PM
Wow that is amazing! I had no idea. Wonder if that huge jump was due to F&F.

I am not sure how they count membership. For example is the 100,000 the actual number of contracts sold and the 300,000 is actual people they have to deal with.

I was just questioning to MS management why it seemed to get harder and harder to get through at times, and I was told that with 300K members and DVC not hiring additional staff, it won't get better.

DrTomorrow
04-06-2006, 11:39 PM
Yep, MrsTomorrow and I co-own 1 contract, so we could be counted as one or two.

DisFlan
04-07-2006, 01:08 AM
We have one contract and 4 blue cards. The 300,000 number may be as misleading as the 100,000 number. It's probably somewhere in between.

DisFlan

Blue&Gold
04-07-2006, 11:18 AM
I think Dis says in its own PR something to the effect that "over 95,000 families know the secret." The number probably has gone over 100K. 100K "families" = 300K-ish members. Apples and oranges.

The Disney company was ripe for take-over and break up in the late 70s before Eisner saved it in the 80s. Read "Disney War" by James B. Stewart... The company was stale and without vision. Some feel it had gone stale again in recent years. I think Lasseter will be the key to the next 15-20 years for this company.

At any rate, I will own .0045887987 % (or something like that) of the beatiful BoardWalk Villas in Lake Buena Vista until 2042! Whether there is anything to do while I'm there is another question.

Mostly, I'm pretty confident in the future of the Resort. Other pieces of the Disney puzzle, like ABC, might fail---and even take the corporate ship down with them, but the parks and the cruise lines (and DVC by extension of the parks) will survive. Warren Buffet or Carl Icahn might own them after some corporate raid, but they are money-making enterprises. It takes decades of incompetent management to whittle away brand loyalty like this.

Johnnyfairplay
04-07-2006, 06:45 PM
What I don't understand is if sales are low why do they keep increasing the point price, I believe they have gone up twice in the last 6 mo? It doesn't make sense why they would want to do that. But I do love being a new member and look forward to adding on either at my home resort or at another.



Why not increase the point cost? It gives the illusion of strong sales. It isn't about the per point cost anyway, it is about what you pay in the end. They could call it $150 a point if they wanted to. You would see the promotions bringing the final costs down to a more reasonable rate. Let the customer think they are getting a deal. Besides, does anyone here think sales will stop becuase they raise the point cost? It may take longer to sell but it will sell. I have no doubt that these price increases are pre-determined anyway. They probably know right now what the point cost will be next June. I don't believe that the price increase is tied to sales in any way. They simply raise it periodically. If sales get real slow then they roll out a great incentive like F&F to stir interest. Tell me it doesn't work wehn the guide says " By the way, I just wanted to let you know the price is going up on April 1st." It gives buyers a sense of urgency which is always a good sales tactic. Our sales slow? I couldn't say, I don't have any inside info. on this. SSR is selling, how long until it is sold out? :confused3


johnny

drakethib
04-08-2006, 01:33 PM
Actually the number is closer to 300,000.


That many???

Really?

I didn't realzie it was that high.

Disney Doll
04-08-2006, 02:09 PM
You know, I often wonder that myself. The membership growing part, I mean.

I look at the price per point, and think how fortunate I feel that we were able to buy when it was $62/point. And that is not meant to be a jibe to anyone, at all. I love Disney, I love my DVC, but it would be awfully hard for me to justify paying much more than $100/point for it. I think that will be a big turning point in the DVC program. I think there's something psychological about $100 per point that will make people stop and think. And I am not necessarily implying that DVC isn't worth $100/point, because perhaps it is. There just seems to be something about that number.

I also think it will be more difficult to sell at $100/point because resales will be less than $100/point, and people may look to the resale market more, because of the lesser cost.

Of course, my theory will be blown if the next DVC is built at the Contemporary, because I htink there are a lot of folks who will pay a premium to own at a resort within walking distance to the MK and on the monorail.

So really, what do I know? :confused3 ;)

KatiebugsMom
04-08-2006, 02:26 PM
I look at the price per point, and think how fortunate I feel that we were able to buy when it was $62/point. And that is not meant to be a jibe to anyone, at all. I love Disney, I love my DVC, but it would be awfully hard for me to justify paying much more than $100/point for it. I think that will be a big turning point in the DVC program. I think there's something psychological about $100 per point that will make people stop and think. And I am not necessarily implying that DVC isn't worth $100/point, because perhaps it is. There just seems to be something about that number.



I do have to agree with the above statement. The knowledge that the price was going to increase soon to over $100 when I started to look again at the idea of DVC, I think is what pushed me to finally make a purchase after 7 years of wishing to be an owner. And the added incentive of the $1200 credit making the price $90 per point. My husband and I looked at the options for payment we had available and decided the time was right. I am so glad we did it and not looking back......PS just purchased SSR directly from Disney (no resale) and a proud new owner. So there are still sales out there to be made......

ralphd
04-08-2006, 03:20 PM
The DVC Member website says 'over 90,000 member families'. They also eliminate (do not count) duplicate contracts owned by the same family.

See section 'Learn About DVC". I understand that this number has increased, but has not exceeded 100,000 member families.